Can You Really Call It a Bath If You Are Already Wet?
Written by Clark Fosler   
Monday, 23 November 2009 09:55

There were some rumors over the weekend, unsubstantiated and mostly speculative, about a possible trade of Jose Guillen to the Mets for Angel Pagan.   As part of this deal, of course, the Royals would be required to kick in some, if not all of Guillen's $12 million in salary due this coming season.

Let's all keep in mind that this deal is probably more 'columnist speculation' than 'actual discussion', so any of you that get all hypertensive over rumors that don't come true might well just stop reading now.     To begin with, it is unlikely the Mets will make any move before seeing how the Jason Bay/Matt Holliday situations play out.   Secondly, and more importantly, it is also unlikely that the Royals will eat a substantial portion of Guillen's salary.

Therein lies the real question of the day:  Why Not?

My mother owned a fabric store for many years and invariably there was always a bit of fabric left over at the end of every bolt.   Not enough to really make anything, but too much to just throw away.   They are called remnants.  You pull them off the bolt, roll them up, tie it with a rubber band and slap some non-sensical price on it just to get it out the door.  

Ladies and gentlemen, Jose Guillen is a remnant.

The Royals have already paid for the luxurious, eye-catching fabric and now are left with a scrap that certainly does not justify its once gaudy price tag.  Move it out the door.

Not long ago, I advocated the plan of keeping Jose and giving him time at designated hitter or, gulp, even right field in hopes that he hits 12 or 14 home runs before the trading deadline.   Hoping, obviously, that some contender might have enough injuries to take a gamble on one-half of a season of Jose Guillen.

Still, if they Royals were to take that path, they might well fall prey to the Reggie Sanders Syndrome.   By most accounts, Sanders was all set to be traded to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera, but went down to injury just prior to the trading deadline.   The next season, he also was hurt when trading time came and went.   Given Guillen's propensity for injury, or at least being 'dinged up and day to day', can the organization really count on Guillen even being in tradable condition (much less actually hitting at the time) come this July?

My guess is the odds are not in the Royals' favor when it comes to Guillen being both productive (however moderately), healthy AND not spouting off come this July.  

The great thing about the off-season is that there is little interaction between the press and the players.   There is no opportunity to observe locker room blowups or late arrivals to the park or shouting matches with drunk fans (or sober ones who are still wearing their high school letter jackets).   Right now, simply by isolation, Jose Guillen is on his best behavior and hence, one of the variables is out of the equation.

Faced with paying Guillen $12 million no matter what, does it not make sense to simply make a move...any move?  

Let's go back to the Mets' rumor - you could insert any team, any marginal player or even marginal prospect or marginal non-prospect - but we'll use the current scuttlebutt just for discussion purposes.   What's worse, paying Jose Guillen $12 million and having him play for you or paying Jose Guillen $10 million to watch him play for someone else and have Angel Pagan on your team?

The money's gone no matter what - no one is going to make the Royals an offer that begins with 'we'll pay all of Guillen's salary' - the time is now to get something...anything, and move on.

The Royals have already taken the plunge with Jose Guillen and are up to their necks in the water.  Should they care if someone dumps another glass of water on their heads?

 



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Comments

avatar wcg1380
0
 
 
For the chance that Pagan's .830 OPS was real and adding a defensive asset to Center, the Royals should be willing to eat the entire million. Bill James projection has Pagan at .745 OPS in 2010, and James projects .757 for Guillen next year. So, for the same basic productivity we can improve the outfield defense.
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avatar gbewing
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all I want for Christmas is that deal!
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avatar Toby V
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The question is - will a trade of Guillen make the team better. I say yes. I don't care what you get for him - as long as it isn't another high contract, end of his time player.
I don't think the guy can play the field any longer. I find it hard to believe that a NL team would want him. I guess as a spot player. But, not an everyday guy. I would love to see the day that this organization will eat the money for bad deals and do something to correct it. Rather than hold on until the contract is up.
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avatar sumajestad
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Clark, that remnant fabric analogy is the worse I have ever heard in my life.
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avatar Hawkeye
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I thought the remnant analogy was OK. The only flaw is that remnants have value. Guillen does not.
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avatar sumajestad
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worst*
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avatar Clark Fosler
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Jose Guillen is bargain priced AND just a shred of what he once was. If that is not analogous to a remnant, than I don't know what is.
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avatar Tom Glow
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Clark, I liked the analogy a lot. I was definitely not the worsted I have heard.
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avatar LAROYAL
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The Royals should learn the lesson well. Do not sign these poor character types for the glamor of potential power. I hated getting the guy then and don't like him now. So many players come to KC and go on the disabled list and never hurry back because its the non contending Royals (Gonzales, Sanders, Santiago- all get the big bucks and then do nothing but retire rich. Guillen has no motivation in KC and was a crappy signing- an extremely selfish self-centered player who does not have a high standard workout program. Trade him, release him and move the hell on. He has no fan appeal, no one cares. The Royals need more winning characters, not senior players that are poisonous to the system.
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avatar 2brews
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trade him. NOW!
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avatar Big Lee
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Clark, that analogy was right on. And since we have to pay him anyhow, KC should consider even just a marginal prospect. I agree that I have no idea why an NL team would want him.
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avatar DD
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Mets fan here.

Two things: Angel Pagan is an earnest but not very good outfielder. He gives maximum effort but somehow seems incapable of developing baseball instincts, both in running the routes in the field and on the bases. The result is a number of plays where his speed results in a tough putout, and roughly an equal number of misplayed balls.

That said, he is a player who gives you everything; you never feel cheated with the pagen Angel. And the man can hit.

I have no desire to see the Mets part with Pagan; and less than NO wish to see them take on Jose Guillen. Guillen is exactly what the Mets don't need. Sorry, but your team signed him. The Mets have their own boneheaded personnel moves to live down.
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avatar Tom Glow
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DD, you paint an interesting picture. Sounds like you would be open to trading Pagen but for something more than "Mr. Hustle".
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