Over the past couple of weeks, we have compared the positions in the field of the five American League Central teams.   We learned that as frustrating as the Royals' catchers are, they hold up pretty well in comparison (offensively at least) to their divisional brethren.   While we probably knew that Billy Butler, Alberto Callaspo and David DeJesus were okay, our research affirmed that they more than hold their own at their respective positions.  We also knew and had reaffirmed that Mike Jacobs and Yuniesky Betancourt are awful and that center and right field seem to be an abyss of an undetermined, yet horrific, depth.

Today, we move on to the starting rotations.   We will use some standard metrics (innings pitched and earned run average) along with the nearly standard WHIP and BABIP (batting average of balls in play), plus we will also use Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP).   Most of you probably are aware of FIP and that it is used to try to analyze what the pitcher can control and take either a good defense or a horrible defense out of the equation.   Let's have a look:

How much is BABIP effected by a team's defense?   I ask that only because the White Sox starters allowed a pretty low BABIP, which helped them to a division leading WHIP and earned run average.

What we see from the Royals (if you are willing to put stock in FIP) is that their starters were considerably better than their earned run average reflected.   Of course, it helps that you have Zack Greinke in the equation and if you took his numbers out of the Royals' totals the rest of the rotation would become very Cleveland-esque, but we don't have to do that.  Zack Greinke will be in the rotation next year and give Kansas City the luxury of trotting out the best pitcher in baseball every fifth day.

Solution

Imagine how the Royals' rotation would have compared if Gil Meche had repeated his performances from 2007 and 2008?   The key 'solution' in the off-season is to make sure Meche is healthy come day one of spring training.   Ditto for Brian Bannister.

Assuming Meche is not completely wrecked, he gives the Royals a legitimate number two starter behind Greinke.   Then you add Brian Bannister to the equation (again, assuming he is healthy), whose 2009 season is probably a better representation of who he is than either 2007 or 2008 was.   While Bannister is not a true number three - he likely is a solid number four and that is probably enough to keep the Royals from making some mad reach for an additional starter via trade or free agency.

I make that statement based more on the greater needs of the Royals in other areas as opposed to some faith that either Kyle Davies or Luke Hochevar finally....FINALLY, develop into a consistent middle of the rotation guy.  

Given the tremendous holes both, offensively and defensively, in the everyday lineup, Kansas City almost has to take a gamble that they can find two serviceable or, at least, not horrible starters from the group of Hochevar, Davies, Robinson Tejeda and Anthony Lerew (I kind of liked him in the limited amount of work he got at the end of the year).    If the Royals can soldier through 2010 with two those four - again, assuming both Meche and Bannister are healthy by spring - then they can look to a hopefully emerging Aaron Crow in late 2010 or the beginning of 2011.

In addition, by spring of 2011 at least one of the many promising arms in A ball might be ready to push for a spot in the rotation. I'm not asking for all of those youngsters to develop, just ONE to be close to ready the season after next (Montgomery probably?).

Whatever cash the Royals might have available (likely not much) and whatever trade chips (pathetic as they might be) exist, they would be wise to use those on the everyday lineup and hope a dose of good health and in-house talent fleshes out the starting rotation in 2010.

Comments

gbewing

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Hey boys quit being modest your in the running for best baseball blog on the net
http://www.bloguin.com/general/articles/2009-bloguin-awards -cast-your-vote.html

vote early and often people- The Royals may suck but the Authority is championship quality

Wednesday 28 October 2009, 15:49

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Toby V

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Authority is great!
So, we are looking at not much a plan and hoping for break-outs from alot of players.

Wednesday 28 October 2009, 16:47

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gbewing

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check out John Sickles minor league site- his Royals breakdown is coming in a day or 2

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

check out Royals options notes - speculation we dump both catchers, Crisp and Jacobs
and the bad contract list swap is a winter funfest

Wednesday 28 October 2009, 19:22

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kcghost

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This lack of minor league talent is maddening. I mean we are looking at 2012 before we can expect any real help and that is problematic. Counting on young pitching to stay healthy and keep developing is more faith than fact. Maybe Lough and Bianchi will be viable by 2011, but the regression of Moustakis and the disaster that was Hosmer this year don't bode well.

Thursday 29 October 2009, 04:16

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Scott in Encinitas

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Simply stated, it's time to revisit Soria as a starting pitcher. A top tier closer is unnecessary on a team that can't sniff .500. He's been a starter in the past (with a perfect game, even), so he has the mindset and the mechanics to handle it.

Thursday 29 October 2009, 09:40

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Toby V

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I think the question would be this: Is Soria more valuable as a closer for the Royals; converted to a Starter; or traded?

Thursday 29 October 2009, 16:02

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Scott in Encinitas

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That's exactly the right question -- float him on the market (or just listen to all offers if GMDM wants to keep it on the down-low) and see what offers come in. If nothing acceptable arrives, start working him into the rotation at the beginning of spring training.

Thursday 29 October 2009, 16:12

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Clark Fosler

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The concern with moving Soria to the rotation would be 'are we turning a dominant closer into a very average starter?'. I offered up a trade thought in a two-part series about a month ago, focusing on a trade to the Phillies. What I found was the package I suggested (based on past closer trades) was deemed 'not enough' by Royals' fans and 'excessive' by Phillies' fans.

Friday 30 October 2009, 04:54

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Toby V

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I remeber that series. But, I did not agree with the reaction of most fans. I think that the reaction was based more on fans being so starved for good players to cheer for. (Not wanting to let a known good player go.) If GMDM had proven at some point during his time, that he could make good trades or good FA pick-ups; I think the reaction would be different.

Friday 30 October 2009, 09:15

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Scott in Encinitas

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And the counter-questio n would be 'are we missing an opportunity letting a quality pitcher languish in the bullpen of a sub-.500 team?' Jack's already proven to be extremely durable mentally, as he's been a quality started in the Mexican league as well as an outstanding closer. I believe, if the off-season trade market doesn't pan out, bring him into Spring Training with the plan on trotting him out as a starter. It wouldn't be too difficult too downshift him back to the closer if it doesn't pan out.

Monday 02 November 2009, 06:45

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Toby V

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I don't think this will ever happen for a couple reasons:
1 - I think his trade value is higher then his value as a starter.
2 - This summer in an interview with Bob Mc (PC) he said that he believed that pitchers only have a couple years for you to determine if they are going to be starters or relievers. He said that once a pitchers have been relievers for X number of years, that their arms are conditioned in that manner and they can never become productive starters. He was talking about short inning relievers and not long middle relief guys.

It sure would suck to stretch him out as a starter and cause some injury - then lose his value as a closer or a trade chip.

Monday 02 November 2009, 17:49

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