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Written by Craig Brown
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Tuesday, 06 October 2009 09:56 |
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Dayton Moore and the rest of the Royals front office staff have relocated their operations to Surprise, Arizona for the next week or so. They’re not in Arizona for the sun, rather to map out the next four months of the off season in preparation for Spring Training in February.
We all suffered through 2009. We all know there are a ton of issues with this team that goes much, much deeper than injuries.
However, the Royals already have a commitment of over $51 million in contracts in 2010. And those are the ones that are guaranteed. It doesn’t include a whopping 11 (or 12 depending on Alberto Callaspo’s qualification as a “Super 2”) player who are eligible for arbitration.
The Royals have some decisions to make, yet because of the bone-headed signings from the previous two winters, they lack the flexibility to perform any major surgery on a roster that lost 97 games.
Today, we'll look at the catcher position, and the Royals options for 2010.
The Candidates
John Buck
Miguel Olivo
Brayan Pena
Buck made $2.9 million last year and is in his third year of arbitration eligibility, meaning unless the Royals sign him to a long term deal, he’s a free agent following next season. Last winter, he earned a raise of $700,000, despite hitting just .224/.304/.365 in slightly over 400 plate appearances. Figure with the reduction in playing time but a little more power, he’s probably in line for a raise of about $500,000 to $700,000, which would bring his total contract to around $3.5 million.
This year, as a backup, he hit .247/.299/.484 in roughly 200 plate appearances. The power production from Buck was a pleasant surprise. And, believe it or not, he was the best Royal - percentage wise - at bringing a runner home. He came to bat with 126 runners on base and drove in 28 which works out to a 22% success rate. Billy Butler was second in RBI percentage with 19%.
Defensively, Buck lacks the arm strength to cut down runners attempting to steal. His wild pitch and passed ball rate per game is .417, which is a little below average. This year, he was clearly the second fiddle to Olivo, so Buck spent only 367 innings behind the plate.
 Olivo earned a base of $2.7 million and earned an additional $400,000 in bonuses tied to playing time. His contract has a mutual option for 2010 at $3.3 million. The mutual option means both player and team must agree to the 2010 contract. This is the second year in a row where there’s a mutual option on Olivo. Last year, it was kind of a no-brainer for Olivo to accept when the Royals decided they wanted him back. He hit .255/.278/.444 in 300 plate appearances, so it would have been a gamble for him to hit the open market and to do as well as his option.
This year, I’m not so sure. Olivo was the Royals primary catcher and was behind the plate for 103 games. (He played an additional eight as the DH.) He hit .249/.292/.490 with a club-high 23 home runs. Somehow, he found it within his game to walk a whopping 19 times - including nine in September!
Olivo isn’t great offensively, but with an OPS+ of 103, he did have a nice year with the bat. Behind the plate was another story. The guy is a defensive nightmare. His wild pitch and passed ball per game rate is an enormous .692, which was tops among all regular catchers by far. It’s no surprise the Royals led the world in wild pitches with 89. The second place team - the Angels - had 67. The Royals counter that Olivo’s inability to block balls (and the plate on throws home) are trumped by his arm and his ability to throw out base stealers. Unfortunately, that’s not true. Last year, runners attempted a steal on Olivo 78 times. He was successful in throwing those runners out just 28% of the time. It’s a decent rate, but it doesn’t make up for all the free bases he gives runners when he has to go to the backstop to pick up the ball.
OK, so you have Olivo and Buck. Then there’s Pena. Out of the race in June, the Royals were in the position to audition their cheap alternative behind the plate for an extended stretch. Unfortunately, they decided not to do that. Pena logged only 213 innings behind the plate.
I had the misfortune of witnessing some of those innings. Let’s just say Pena’s defense leaves much to be desired. It’s like he took all the negative attributes from Olivo and Buck and decided that was how he should catch.
Offensively, Pena is the polar opposite from the other two. He hit .273/.318/.442 while showing modest power and decent discipline. Obviously, it’s difficult to get into any kind of rhythm when you come to the plate just 180 times in a year. It was a colossal waste that the Royals didn’t give him a longer look.
Solution
As much as I hate to say it, I think the Royals have to keep Olivo. Olivo’s slugging percentage has been impressive and while Buck had a solid ’09, he’s never shown the ability to maintain his rates over an entire season. At this point, Buck is more suited to play as a backup. And the Royals, with their commitments in 2010, can’t afford to pay over $3 million to a backup catcher. Not when they have a cheaper (and offensively better) option in Pena sitting on their bench.
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Comments
His SLG% was inflated by a high HR/FB (HR to Fly Ball) percentage of 21.7%. The last three seasons his percentages were 12.7%, 12.1% and 12.1%. Obviously he's going to regress, right?
Also, his K% went up this year (due to increased playing time?) to a whopping 33.2%. Wow.
With nearly Million ALREADY committed after arbitration, I just don't see how the Royals can keep him around. He'll strike out at the same rate (if not more) and will probably hit for much less power next year. And he's going to turn 32 next season -- not exactly a time in his career where you can expect performance to improve. In fact, every statistic across the board will probably decline next year as he's playing a physically taxing position.
I hope you're wrong and the Royals find a cheaper alternative to stick with Peña next year.
That's what I would do, but Moore can't be trusted with the money either, so I don't know that I want him to do that.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/10/elias-rankings- update.html
Pick up or promote a defensive catcher, like Toby says, then tell Pena that he's the team's go-to-guy (URF) but if he wants more PT behind the plate he needs to improve his defensive skills.