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On Wednesday, I offered up the theory of trading Joakim Soria to build a better future base for the Kansas City Royals.
It could be sheer lunacy to consider moving either the second or third best player on the roster. One who is signed to a long term deal for reasonable money and a player who, frankly, may not even be in his prime yet.
Some of you commented that while the theory might make at least some sense, you simply did not trust Dayton Moore to make the right call on the players to be received in return. I cannot argue with that trepidation, not even a little.
However, for fun, let's take Dayton Moore out of the equation and, using the three trades detailed on Wednesday as a guide, examine one potential trade option.
Those three trades we talked about involved a rehabbing Eric Gagne, a free agent to be Jose Valverde and George Sherill. Without sounding too biased, Joakim Soria is better than any of those three at the point in time they were traded. He is in a better contract situation, has a better track record and is pitching RIGHT NOW better than any of those three were. That said, I think one can logically assume that Soria would net more in return than what the market granted for those three closers.
Okay, so who is the trading partner?
In looking around the league, I considered only teams that are going to make the playoffs or are in contention to do so this season (and hence, might believe they are just 'one player away' from making the playoffs next year). Truthfully, there are a number of teams that might consider an upgrade at closer and I intend to explore some others later, but one really screamed out to me: Philadelphia.
The Phillies' closer right now is Brad Lidge. He has a 7.48 earned run average and a WHIP of 1.861. While we in Kansas City fully understand how overvalued won-loss records are for pitchers, you have to put some stock in those numbers when a closer with ZERO wins and EIGHT losses. Lidge has been bad enough for the Phils to start thinking about using Chan Ho Park to finish games.
Now, Philadelphia will make the playoffs and might win the Series anyway, but don't tell me they want to go into 2010 relying on Lidge..or Park...or anyone else. They are team built to win now, next year and the year after that. They have three outfielders (Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth and Shane Victorinio) who are all really good and two exceptional outfield prospects in the minors. Anyone smell a match here?
Keeping in mind that Ibanez will someday show his age and that, as good as he is, Joakim Soria is 'just a reliever', the Royals will not pry both Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown away from Philadelphia. They might be able to get one of them, however.
Both Brown (the pre-season #1 prospect of the organization) and Taylor (pre-season #6) are big, athletic outfielders with pop and tons of potential. At 21 years old, Brown went .299/.377/.504 split between High A and AA ball this year. Taylor, two years older, went .320/.395/.549, split between AA and AAA.
My guess is that Brown still remains the better prospect, so I would be happy to propose the Phillies send over Taylor as part of this deal. He might not be ready to play everyday next spring, but likely would be in the majors no later than next summer. At which point, Michael would likely already be the team's best outfielder.
Along with Taylor, just for tradition's sake, the Phillies would send along outfielder John Mayberry Jr. He hit .200 in limited major league duty this year and just .256/.332/.456 in AAA action. At age twenty-five, the junior Mayberry is probably not a prospect any longer, but not so old to completely call him washed up, either. He would be a decent risk for an organization like the Royals without much potential help at the AAA level.
The haul of Taylor and Mayberry is still a little light (both in my opinion and based upon past trades), so let's through 24 year old pitcher Alexander Concepion into the deal. The righthander compiled a 3.21 ERA split between AA and AAA this year, sporting a strikeout to walk ratio of over four to one at both levels. He is a control pitcher, not a strikeout guy, who has split time between the pen and starting. Again, not a great prospect, but he has enough of a track record to be useful at the back of the rotation or in middle relief.
So the question is two-fold: is this a reasonably logical trade and would you do it?
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Comments
That's potentially the upside of trading Soria. Mayberry doesn't do much for me and frankly I would reject the trade for the 3 prospects mentioned
Brown or Taylor is a start, add a pitching prospect JA happ and I'm in- too much for Philly so be it but I want real players- Carrasco was their best pitching prospect but he's already been traded, Ben francisco is not being used there he's a great throw in- we really need to pair up with teams that can give us MI prospects.
The comments with regard to Lidge's salary are valid, but on the other hand, the Phils are on the hook for that number no matter what happens. Soria's salary, via the favorable deal struck with the Royals, would be little more than a blip on the Phils' overall payroll.
Perhaps, however, the single most telling summary of these comments is simply this: the Phillies' fans think the proposed deal is too much and the Royals' fans don't think it is enough.
I see Phil's fans saying no way here. I would like to know what you think he would be worth from your side?
Furthermore, a good reliever is worth a lot of wins to a ballclub and to hold a lead for a club rather than lose it has more psychological value than you appear to believe. Trading a player who is probably in the top 5 in the league for a good minor league and a .200 hitter is a laughable proposal. Plus, add to that the contract that Soria has and his value to the Phillies should be worth another hot pitching prospect.
The phils would probably agree to part with Taylor and a pitching prospect, but it would be a pitching prospect along the lines of Carpenter or Bastardo, there's no way that the Phils include Happ or Drabek. If the Phils weren't sold on Happ & Drabek, they could take them and go grab Halladay instead. Not to mention Taylor projects to be at least an everyday major league outfielder if not a potential allstar. While Soria would be a nice piece for the Phils to add, I wouldn't expect a the hall some are thinking of.
Relief pitchers are unreliable by nature. BP ran an article this year showing the fluid nature of RP (not just closers) and their effectiveness over time. Only Mo, Hoffman, Qualls and, IIRC, K-Rod finished near the top five years running. So there is no way I'd give up any top prospect for Soria, or any other closer.
Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, Mike Costanzo. That is what it took to net Brad Lidge.
Kason Gabbard and David Murphy brought back Eric Gange (when he was effective - sporting a 2.16 ERA at the time).
5 years of Chris Perez was just traded for a half season of Mark DeRosa. Control time/salary/current value... these things are taken much ligher with RP than most other MLB players. You're asking for a higher valued prospect than anyone who went in the Cliff Lee deal + a guy with MLB service time and another one who could be a season away. Face it, it would never happen.
At any rate, the discussion in my mind is not what will Joakim Soria be five years from now, but instead what he will be for the next two. The Phillies will be in the mix for the World Series this year and certainly the next two - would you trade away a top propect (especially when you have one with equal, if not greater, potential in Dominic Brown also in your system) to plug the one hole your team has?
Maybe as a Royals' fan, I'm success starved, but would Phillies' fans care if Michael Taylor becomes an All-Star and Alexander Concepion a capable number three or four starter if Joakim Soria helped them win a World Championship in 2010?
In my mind, this is 'win now' time for Philly and hence you could conceivable extract more than a closer might normally warrant - particularly given Soria's age and contract status. All in all, the proposed package is considerably less than what Philly gave up for Cliff Lee (Mayberry is a very marginal prospect at this point, certainly far below any of the four the Indians got).
While it can be debated from both sides, I don't view this as a pie in the sky, illogical proposal. The Sherill trade might be the best comparision of any right now and the Dodgers did give up their number 8 prospect (Taylor was #5 for the Phillies at the start of the year), plus a pitcher with a minor league resume similar to Concepion.
Another trade worth comparing: the Astros traded Billy Wagner when he was absolutely the top closer in the NL. Even at the time, it was considered that we got filler players for him.