Reports emerged last night (from the indefatigable Bob Dutton… who else?) that the Royals and Alex Gordon are close to an agreement on a one year deal.
Naturally, I had a couple of reactions.
The Good: This prevents the unnecessary step of meeting before an arbiter to decide Gordon’s 2012 salary. Gordon is asking for $5.45 million while the Royals offered $4.15 million. It’s a pretty wide spread, but it’s not something that the two sides can’t hash out and meet somewhere in the middle.
The Bad: What happened to the extension everyone’s been discussing?
According to Dutton, the two sides are focused on reaching a deal for 2012 before moving onto talks for an extension. Exhale. One thing is certain… Dayton Moore thinks of his ballclub as a family. And family members (good one’s, at least) don’t drag other family members into court. This contract will never, ever end up in front of an arbiter. The two sides will most definitely reach a one year agreement before the scheduled hearing on February 16.
What to watch for: The key will be the amount agreed upon in this one year deal. Remember Butler’s contract extension from last year. After the two sides exchanged numbers, his camp settled on a compromise less than halfway in return for more cash in the future. It’s a fair trade… Less money today for guaranteed salary for the next three or four years.
I think that if Gordon takes less than $5 million, that indicates that the two sides are very close to getting something done.
(By the way, is this the lamest off season in Royals history, or what? Four months of no baseball and what do we have to show for it? Bruce Chen getting what’s basically a two-year extension? The Melk-Man trade? The Yunigma returning to haunt my summer? Seriously, this winter has been excruciatingly boring. Not unlike Moneyball.)
Then last night, I saw this Tweet from WHB’s Nate Bukaty.
Saw the report that Royals are offering Gordon 4 yrs, 30 million. I’ve been told Gordon’s camp wants 6 yrs, 80 mil. Seems like a big gap.
Now, if anyone is plugged into the Royals, it’s Nate. But I don’t know where he’s getting those numbers. That’s insanity, both in total years and in cash. If Gordon is truly asking for that kind of security and scratch, and I was GMDM, I’d wish him luck, buy him some luggage for the move from KC and call the Boras Corp and try to lock up Eric Hosmer.
As Nate pointed out in a later Tweet, Gordon has basically had one good season. Although his second half of 2008 was supposed to be his “breakout” before injuries, a position change and demotions derailed his career for the better part of two seasons. The dude has had a hell of a career packed into five seasons and I’m not sure how you can hold his performance in 2009 and 2010 against him. They happened, so you can’t ignore them… but at the same time, there were mitigating circumstances that conspired from keeping him from what we could have expected as his best performance.
Still, if the Gordon camp is truly angling for a six year, $80 million contract, they are insane. Like have-a-crush-on-Jodie-Foster insane. Maybe if he plays out his final two seasons in KC and builds upon his most excellent 2011 season, he could be looking at that kind of payday when he hits the open market at the end of 2013. But not now. Good grief, not now.
The good news is, there’s simply no way GMDM goes for something like that. Not with talent bubbling in the cauldron we call The Process. No way does he commit a record contract (for the Royals) to a corner outfielder who would be on the wrong side of 30 for half of the deal. Uh-uh.
So what happens to the two sides? I’ve gone on the record with the Royals and Gordon agreeing to a four year deal valued around $35 million. I’m going to bump my estimate by a cool million. Here’s how I would break down the deal:
2012 – $5 million
2013 – $7 million
2014 – $12 million
2015 – $12 million
Gordon was a Super Two, so he won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season. Thus, he makes $7 million in his final year of arbitration and the Royals buy out his first two years of free agency for a total of $24 million. The contract takes him through his age 31 season and keeps him in Kansas City for when the Royals are supposed to contend in the AL Central.
Gordon could play Contract Roulette and gamble he can stay healthy and continue to abuse opposing pitchers, but this is a fair deal for someone at this point in their career with the limited amount of success he’s had. This seems like a win all the way around.
Hopefully, both sides can reach an agreement.