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Dayton Moore cannot bury his head in a bucket and do nothing in the next seven days.  His team is not good enough and will not get hot enough and will not improve enough to be neither a buyer or a seller at the trade deadline.BtOtpgvIcAA8-DdIt was fun to have Mike Moustakas hit two home runs in a game and threaten the Mendoza line.  It’s also a great thing when your manager actually uses his three best relief pitchers to get four innings of work and Bruce Chen – freaking Bruce Chen – came through with a nice effort.   Winning’s fun, the Royals should do more of it.

Let’s look in the mirror, however, Mr. Moore and realize that this team you have so patiently constructed in eight/nine years of service is what it is.  The Kansas City Royals right now are going to win about 81 games.   With rare exception, winning between 78 and 84 games in a season is about the worst thing you can do in baseball:  good enough to be respectable, close enough to not sell off pieces, but not enough wins to be a post-season participant of any relevance.

If this is a ‘go for it year’ and it sure seems like it was supposed to be, then Dayton Moore needs to buy and buy big.   On the other hand, if Alex Rios, Ben Zobrist and Ian Kennedy still doesn’t get this team into more than a one game play-in, then swallow your pride and sell.

To be honest, I know in my head that the Royals need to sell.  Take a look at the Dodgers’ bullpen:  what would they give for Wade Davis or Greg Holland or, hell, even Aaron Crow at this point?

My heart, if only to keep things exciting for a while, kind of leans toward buying.  Some of that comes from my skepticism of the Royals being able to consistently develop prospects.  Is the return on James Shields better than a compensation draft pick? I don’t care, I am weary of coveting draft picks.  Basically, I’d rather have someone else’s Sean Manaea from two years ago than our Sean Manaea.

What I fear the most and, frankly, expect the most is for Dayton Moore to neither buy nor sell.  We will be told that there just wasn’t the value for value trade out there.  That this group is good enough and ‘we like are team’ and whatever clumsy rhetoric this organization will toss out to us.

The Royals will have a nice little hot streak, get close, and then fall back: probably end up 84-78 and be set up in 2015 to win 84 or 85 wins again.   It’s better than losing 100 games a year, but it will get really, really annoying three or four years in a row.

Buy or sell.  Pick one, but for godssake do one or the other in a big way.

 

Clark has been chronicling what I like to call “Ned Quotes,” and I don’t mean to step on his toes, but…

“One big hit in a crucial situation,” Yost said. “It always seems to take the pressure off everything when you’re struggling.”

That’s it. The magic elixir. One Big Hit. (All caps on purpose as it sounds like the name of a pop band.)

Apparently, that One Big Hit is pretty damn elusive. Have you seen one lately? Maybe the Sal Perez home run in Tampa earlier this month. That felt pretty Big. Huge, even. And since then the Royals have won exactly one of their last eight games. Don’t you see? One Big Hit changes everything.

Here we are again. Familiar territory. That time of the year when the Royals season starts spinning faster as it circles the drain. This year has been different from past seasons as they were able to stave off the pits at least until the All-Star Break. As fans, we are all too familiar with crappy Aprils and horrible Mays torpedoing any chances. This year, the Royals actually made a cameo appearance in first in June. It was kind of the Tigers to let us have our moment in the sun.

Since then, the Royals have gone 9-17. Impressive.

Stretches like that lead columnists to question the Royals collective intestinal fortitude when it comes to playing under pressure:

Hope is not a plan. Belief is not a right. Patience went out years ago. You want to talk about the problems with the Royals? That’s a good place to start.

So is this:

They regularly shrink as the moment grows.

It’s a good hypothesis, but I don’t buy it. The Royals don’t “shrink” when they manage to raise expectations. The simple truth is they just aren’t very good. That’s what mediocre teams do. They play well for a stretch, get your attention to where you begin to think, “Hey, maybe this team is good enough to do something positive.” Then, they revert back to their true talent level. That’s how it’s been with the Royals for the last several years. This year, they played well for a stretch, got into first and then reverted to form.

Ahead of the All-Star Break, I wrote that the final 13 games of July were crucial. The Royals are 0-4 so far. And looking lifeless. It’s clear it’s time to sell. It’s also obvious it’s time to clear house.

How about this?

BP power

That’s not the first time Yost has touted his club’s BP power. That doesn’t make it any less hilarious.

That a major league manager would talk up his team’s batting practice power is equal parts insane and sad. While Yost was outsmarting himself out of a job in the midst of a pennant race in Milwaukee, it appears he’s doing the same thing here. Expectations can be a bitch. Especially if you’re not equipped to handle them. Yost has to know time is running out. Not on the season, but on his employment in Kansas City. This is how it goes.

This regime is moving closer toward irrelevance every day. I’m doubtful there will be any movement this season. (Although I desperately hope I’m wrong.) Besides, it’s too late to make a difference anyway. But there’s always next year.

“We’re not playing good situational offensive baseball” – Ned Yost, courtesy the Kansas City Star.

I think I will start every post (however sporadic they have become) with a quote from Ned Yost.  Perhaps I’ll even begin each meeting in my office with a quote from Dayton Moore.  Hey, if the Royals are going down, I’m taking all of you with us.

We have been fed the company line for a long time with regard to how the Kansas City Royals just need to hit better with runners in scoring position.  Many of you have already figured out just how absolutely whacked out that line of reasoning is, but if not (and that means you are NOT spending enough time in your Mom’s basement!) let’s boil it down.

Overall, your Kansas City Royals – the team you have been waiting for, mind you – is hitting .263/.313/.374.   That is good for fourth in the American League in batting average, but only 12th in on-base percentage and 13th in slugging percentage.  Apparently, it is not only impossible to hit home runs in Kaufmann Stadium, but also difficult to walk as well.

The problem, remember, is not a .313 on-base percentage: it is how poorly they perform with runners in scoring position.  In those scenarios, Kansas City is hitting just .262/.324/.386.    Those numbers are good for 5th in batting average, 11th in on-base percentage and 9th in slugging.

So….the Royals offense is good enough, they just need to hit better with runners in scoring position, but yet they ARE better hitters with runners in scoring position then they are overall.  Wait.  What?

To put it another way, the Kansas City Royals have put 2,229 runners on base this season (not counting solo home runs) and scored 14.67% of those runners.  In the American League, only Texas, Oakland, Detroit and the Angels have scored a higher percentage of runners.   That’s right, your situationally deficient Royals are fifth in the league in actually scoring runners they put on base.

The Royals, from coaches to manager to general manager to team president to team owner, always have an explanation.  They will be happy to explain to us why this team is not quite good enough, while also making us aware of just how much smarter they are than the rest of us.  Listen, kid, you may have your numbers and stuff, but WE know how the game of baseball really works.

Well, guess what?  Baseball is not all that complicated.  In fact, it is not complicated at all.  It is hard, yes, but not complicated.

If you hit about the same with runners in scoring position as you do as a team, then I am going to wager that if I could get more runners on base, I’m going to score more runs.  If, by the way, I happen to find a guy or two who actually can perform the impossible and hit a ball over the fence at Kaufmann, then I will score even more runs.

The Royals are not going to the moon here.  They also are not going to the playoffs.

 

“I outsmarted myself” – Ned Yost

It may well be the defining moment of what is appearing to be a disappointing 2014 season by the Kansas City Royals.

With Kansas City clinging to a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the sixth Friday night, Ned Yost trudged to the mound and pulled his starter, James Shields.    The Royals’ ace had given up a two run homer, followed by a double, but had then struck out David Ross for the second out of the inning.  Jackie Bradley Jr., at the time posting a .225/.303/.309 line, was about to bat.

Shields had already thrown 112 pitches – a laboring 112 at that – and I frankly thought it might be time to make a change.  After all, with the addition of Jason Frasor, Yost could go to the pen early in games and still put in a quality pitcher.  You know, a guy like Frasor or Aaron Crow (who looks a lot better in the sixth than the eighth) or, I don’t know, how about Kelvin Herrera who was already warming in the pen.

Instead, the Royals’ manager opted for lefty Scott Downs to face the lefthanded hitting Bradley. It is probably important to note that Bradley is not a good hitter versus right or left-handers.  It is also relevant to note that Downs, released from a team with a bad bullpen, is at this point in his career ONLY effective versus left-handed hitters.

Enter Downs.

Enter Jonny Gomes.

Were you surprised that Red Sox manager John Farrell used a pinch-hitter in the sixth inning?  If you were, then you did not check Baseball-Reference and note that Gomes had been used as pinch-hitter twice in the sixth already this season and four other times in the seventh.  Now, you have school or work or kids or friends or read or watch too much television or a hobby or an X-Box, so if you did not know that it’s okay.  On the other hand, it is kind of Ned Yost’s job to be aware of that sort of stuff.

While Jonny Gomes  became something of a joke on Twitter as the series progressed –  courtesy of some ‘odd’ defense and the idea that Gomes success against the Royals would certainly lead to him be traded for immediately – he was not the guy you wanted to see facing your sixth best reliever with a one run lead on the road.

What followed was a two run homer and the Royals managed just one run and nine hits over the next 21 innings in Boston.  Over the course of the weekend, we say Nori Aoki get more at-bats than Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson.   We saw Danny Valencia bat clean-up, Salvador Perez miss a game with ‘groin thing’ and Raul Ibanez pinch-hit.

Not all of that paragraph is Ned Yost’s fault.  He is not in charge of player acquisition.  His options to pinch hit on Saturday  were the slumping Lorenzo Cain (0 for his last 20), the 42 year old AND slumping Ibanez, Brett Hayes and the only-hits-lefties Danny Valencia.    All this, in year whatever of Dayton Moore’s process.

The Royals’ GM has labored all these years to give us a basically .500 ballclub and put a manager in charge who (and you can debate how much a manager can do, but he can do something) is not going to make this team any better than its base talent level.

So, what can you get for James Shields these days?

It’s the All-Star Break. We’re about 16 days from the non-waiver trade deadline. The Royals stand 6.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central. They are two games above .500. They are 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. They own the sixth best record in the AL.

They are in the thick of the Wild Card race.

When Major League Baseball expanded the playoffs to include an additional Wild Card entry, the thought was adding another spot would add more competition. Leagues always love more competition. (They also love the money that goes along with ginning up more competition in the form of expanded playoffs, but that’s another story.) With one more Wild Card team, that meant a total of five teams would play in the post season. More postseason teams, more postseason money. Win-win. An October bonanza.

Except that it’s my belief the second Wild Card spot has been incredibly damaging to small market teams like the Royals.

A few years into this new playoff scheme, teams haven’t figured how to manage the second Wild Card. It inevitably creates an illusion of “being in the thick” of the race. It’s rare when five teams create separation between themselves and the rest of the league. What it does is creates a logjam of teams, jockeying for a single position, inert at the trading deadline, and mortgaging the future for a present where the odds are stacked against them.

Just look at this year’s American League standings

There are three teams that are clearly the cream of the crop. The A’s have the league’s best record and the best run differential. The Angels are the hottest team in the league at the Break and are just a game and a half off the pace in the West. And the third team is the Detroit Tigers, who have, after a rocky June, have gotten back on track and are now 15 games better than .500.

Three teams representing two divisions. Under the old Wild Card rules, the Angels would be running away from the rest of the pack. (The Wild Card renders what would be some wonderful division battles irrelevant, but again, that’s another story.)

Old WC Standings

Under the old Wild Card rules, this race is just about over. Their division rival Mariners are hanging around, and they do still have 10 games left to play against the Angels, so while they are still almost six full games out, they could mount a comeback. Although with their offense, that seems a longshot. (Royals fans know all about what poor offenses do to quality pitching and defense.)

Looking at the standings as presented above, you would think the remaining four teams on the table: the Blue Jays, the Royals, the Yankees and the Indians would have a solid reality check. They would see the two best teams in the American League live in the Western Division and that the one team that didn’t win the division would likely be the sole Wild Card representative. The teams in the back hovering around .500 could look at their rosters, easily assess they are not of the same class as either the A’s and the Angels and they would start jockeying for position as the trade deadline approached as it pertained to the Wild Card.

In other words, those teams would be sellers.

Now, look at the landscape under the current rules:

New WC Standings
Nothing changes at the top. The Angels (or A’s, whichever team finishes second in the AL West) remain prohibitive favorites to play beyond the regular season. By expanding the race to include a second Wild Card, the Mariners – outsiders under the old rules, by almost a week’s worth of games – are now playing the Angels in the “play-in game.” (Or whatever dumb name MLB has given the one-game Wild Card match.) And the lead has been cut by a cool 6.5 games.

By adding that second Wild Card, everyone moves forward in the line. Now, instead of finding themselves as rank outsiders, the Jays, Royals, Yankees and Indians are in the pack. They have a chance. And when you have a chance, you can’t sell. Even if you should.

This is where the second Wild Card cripples teams like the Royals. They have a handful of tradable players. James Shields has around 15 starts remaining in his Royals career. Wade Davis is going make $7 million next year coming out of the bullpen. Greg Holland is eligible for arbitration for a second time and will make more than Davis. Billy Butler has a club option ranging from $12.5 to $14.5 million. That’s just to name four players. (Although I can’t imagine any team in baseball giving the Royals anything for Butler. Although Seattle has been rumored to have interest.)

The Royals find themselves in the exact same spot as last year. They are in a cluster of teams within a few games of the Wild Card. That means they are in baseball limbo. Intertia. Paralyzed between the lure of October and the reality of the competition.

We’re heard ad nauseam the Royals are “all-in” in 2014. If that isn’t true, they are certainly “pot committed” at this point. They aren’t good enough to gain separation from the pack of mediocrity, yet they aren’t bad enough to throw in the towel on this season to look to the future. It’s an unfortunate situation. Their hands are tied. But it’s not something the Royals have done wrong. They’ve built a team designed to hover around .500. The American League is rife with average teams. This year, average gets you into the conversation. And while you’re in the conversation, you can’t punt on the season.

I see frustration from a segment of fans. Those fans want the Royals to sell. This segment feels the Royals are blind in their belief they can qualify for the postseason. While I agree that actually grabbing the final Wild Card spot seems like a pipe dream, the reality is the team is definitely in the mix. Nevermind the flaws you may see with this team. (And believe me, there are plenty of flaws.) All the teams in the Royals cohort have flaws. That’s why they are all bunched together. They just happen to have fewer flaws than the Rangers, Red Sox, Astros, Rays, Twins and White Sox. The reality says the Royals are 2.5 games out with 68 games remaining. They are at the forward of this mediocre group, meaning there aren’t six teams to leapfrog. As of this writing, they are the first team on the outside. As I mentioned at the top of this post, they have the sixth best record in the AL.

This weekend has been terribly frustrating. It’s the exclamation point on a slide that started when the Royals reached the summit of the Central for the briefest of moments. The Tigers have flipped the script, kicked the Royals ass in a four game series, winning three and now stand 6.5 games in front. I get the tendency to react to that. To say the Royals aren’t good enough. I agree. The Royals aren’t good enough to win the division.

But they are in the mix for the Wild Card. You may think this team isn’t very good. But you know what? It doesn’t matter. What matters is there is a cluster of teams that are battling for that final spot and those teams as a collective aren’t very good. As it stands, 87 wins will take the second Wild Card. Last year, it was 92 wins. The year before, it was 93 wins. It’s not often a sub-90 win team takes a Wild Card spot, but there’s a strong probability that happens this season.

Are the Royals good enough to win 87 games?

Obviously, we will find out. The Royals close out July with three games at Boston, three in Chicago before returning home to play four against the Indians and three with the Twins. All 13 of those games are against teams currently under them in the Wild Card standings. Nine of those are against teams outside of the Wild Card conversation. This is the big stretch of the season. Not the four games this weekend against Detroit. The key stretch is the first two weeks after the All-Star Break. The Royals sorely need to grab some wins against the also-rans of the AL. If they can’t win nine of these 13, making a push, then it’s time to sell.

The odds are already stacked against the Royals. Baseball Prospectus puts their playoff odds at 14 percent. Fangraphs is a little more optimistic at 21%, but those odds place them behind Cleveland. Neither scenario is ideal. But the Royals are in a position that even if they win five of the 13, they could still be in the proverbial Wild Card mix. Which would lead them to think they are still in a position to strike. Which would be the wrong conclusion to draw.

The smart teams will be the teams that figure their position relative to the league. They will make moves not based on games back for the final Wild Card spot. They will make moves based on their talent in relation to the talent found on other teams in their competitive group.

And remember: No one has ever referred to the Royals as one of those “smart” teams.

Should the Royals be sellers at the deadline? I’m willing to give the Royals the two weeks post-Break. With a favorable schedule, it’s time for them to make a move. Still, I can’t help but think this is truly a .500 team. With a target of 81 wins, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Royals finished anywhere between 78 and 84 wins. Even in a year defined by mediocrity of the second Wild Card, that’s not going to be good enough. If they reach the last couple days of July with no improvement in the situation, then it’s time to sell.

But as I mentioned earlier, if they remain a handful of games back, they won’t sell. It will be frustrating, but such is the nature of baseball in 2014 with the second Wild Card.

Some thoughts accumulated while watching a Royal butt kicking.

– Media needs a narrative. Television is confined by time and print is similarly restricted by space. That means things need to be neat and tidy. And it doesn’t get any neater and tidier than a scrappy walk-off win. And when that team on the positive side of the walk-off is hanging on the fringes of contention, that means such game will fall immediately into the “game changer” or “momentum” category.

Such was the case in Wednesday’s win against the Rays. I don’t want to minimize the awesomeness of the win, because it was awesome. The Royals don’t often hit three-run home runs in the top of the ninth inning to completely erase a four-run deficit. Then, immediately after the game, broadcasters and columnists pontificated about how that was THE WIN to push the Royals on their way. That was THE WIN that would make the difference in the season. That was THE WIN that meant everything.

Nice narrative. Not true.

We saw all about momentum in Thursday’s 16-4 wipeout against the Tigers. In that, it doesn’t exist in baseball.

I learned that lesson the hard way in 2011. It was early in the season and the Royals were hanging close to the division lead. (When you’re a Royals fan, this feels important.) The Indians were in first place and in town and the Royals record was at 11-7. Alex Gordon was hitting. So was Billy Butler. Melky Cabrera was warming up and Jeff Francoeur was playing out of his mind. The Royals fell behind 2-0 in the middle innings, but pushed a run across in the eighth. In the bottom of the ninth Kila Ka’aihue doubles, Mitch Maier singles and Chris Getz walks. The Cabrera hits a game-winning single. It was a pretty epic game.

I remember writing about it, and talking about how that game would be the launching pad to the season. This team felt invincible after that win. (Looking back at those names that fueled the rally, I feel like an idiot. I should have known.) That was their fifth walk-off of the year and it was only April 21. They felt like a (narrative alert!) team of destiny.

The Royals then went on the road and promptly lost six in a row.

I always remember that game when someone talks about momentum. And it reminds me that it doesn’t exist.

– The Raul Ibanez Experiment never should have happened. And it should be over.

You can talk all you want about “leadership” and “veteran presence” but if you are 42 years old and 0 for your last 23 with six strikeouts and no walks, and you play nasty defense, you shouldn’t be on a major league team.

It says a lot about the arrogance of this organization that they think they have something in Ibanez that merits giving him so many plate appearances.

– Justin Maxwell cleared waivers and reported to Omaha. He could have become a free agent, but he’s no dummy. He sees Ibanez in his roster spot and know he will be back in KC soon.

– Good news on Alex Gordon who had an MRI on his ailing wrist that revealed no break and no tear. A little rest and he should be OK. We hope.

It always worries me when the Royals say someone is going to be fine and they give him a few days off but use him as a pinch hitter or a defensive replacement. And then lose him to the DL and forfeit the ability to place him on it retroactively. Remember, this is an organization that has difficulty managing the 25 man roster. I would hate for Gordon to take the field in the ninth inning on Sunday, fail to see improvement over the All-Star Break and then have to go on the disabled list because he would be out another week or so.

Don’t laugh. It’s happened before.

– Finally, as we head to the weekend, take a moment to read this post by Michael Engel at Pine Tar Press about an experience while coaching little league. A wonderful story that is beautifully told. It’s the best thing I’ve read on a Royals blog this year.

Have a great weekend.

 

Francisely Bueno probably should have made it out of last night’s eighth inning unscathed.  He fumbled a bunt single by a fast guy (that what speed do) – hardly the first pitcher to have that happen.   Then he got a groundball for a possible double play only to have his Gold Glove caliber shortstop make a little league decision to not get any outs at all.

Bueno might have deserved better.   That does not mean Ned Yost’s decision to go to Bueno in the eighth was right.

Let’s ignore for a moment, Yost’s steadfast and defiant refusal to use Wade Davis when his team is trailing.  There is another guy out there, Kelvin Herrera, who has not thrown since June 30th:  that’s SEVEN DAYS OFF.  No, let’s go with Francisely Bueno.

To be clear, Bueno has pitched quite well of late.  Heck, he has thrown 5.2 innings of shutout baseball in his last two appearances.  Both of those appearances having occurred SINCE the last time Herrera appeared in a major league baseball game.  What am I missing here?

We all know that Ned is paranoid about overusing his bullpen.  Sometimes seven relievers is simply not enough.  I am pretty sure they would have eight pitchers in the pen now if the team was not absolutely convinced that Raul Ibanez was going to wake up one of these mornings and be five years younger.

Still, Herrera – on pace to pitch 70 innings this year and idle for a week – stood and watched as the Royals gave up two runs in the eighth inning.  They were somewhat meaningless runs until Kansas City connected for two runs themselves in the following half inning.

It’s hardly all on Bueno, but it should have been Herrera simply because this is was a close game, he was rested and Kelvin is a better pitcher.  If not him, then Wade Davis.

Down one run with your offense getting hits (no runs, but hits – law of average stuff has to start coming into play) and Escobar then the top of the order coming up in the ninth, one almost has to stop being a stubborn by the book manager and go with your dominant eighth inning guy.

Let’s also keep in mind that other than the last week of the season, this is the one week when you can really push your guys – especially your best guys.  You have four days off coming up, so if Davis, Herrera and Holland pitch in five times this week, they’ll have time to recover over the All-Star Break.    One could even get real crazy and use Greg Holland for more than inning this week.  Theoretically, the world would not implode.

Of course, if Tim Collins and Louis Coleman had not forgotten how to get people out or Luke Hochevar had not gone under the knife, this bullpen might be Ned-proof.  Instead, however, the vaunted depth is really not there.  Assuming Herrera might have a tweak or something that makes the team hesitant to use him right now and knowing that Wade Davis simply cannot be used (because – NED), then Bueno was far more palatable than Bruce Chen or Scott Downs or any of the six other pitchers who have appeared for the team this season.

The bullpen depth is not there and the imagination of the man who handles it is lacking.

 

If you don’t like fireworks and cheap beer in someone’s driveway, then this was not your kind of weekend. I like fireworks:  I don’t go out of my way to see them, but when they are in front of my house or above us on a friend’s boat, well, why not?

Oh and beer.  I like beer.

Anyway, not to get lost in the pro vs. con firework debate or the ‘I’m too cool to really celebrate the 4th’ or, even better, the ‘it’s not the Fourth of July, it’s Independence Day!’ argument.  One thing lacking in fireworks this past holiday weekend was the Kansas City Royals.

With the Tigers losing three of four to Tampa, your Royals managed to make up one (1) game on the Tigers and actually lost a game in the Wild Card Standings.  Not fun.

Billy Butler was moved to sixth in the order and, you may have heard this on Twitter (that’s sarcasm), Eric Hosmer continues to hit second.  Raul Ibanez batted cleanup once.  Christian Colon had a nice first start, but then Omar Infante batting fifth after that.   Scott Downs was acquired to either be the 7th guy in the bullpen or the first guy Ned Yost goes to with a tough lefty at the plate.

After winning on Friday behind another good Yordano Ventura start, the Royals did a fantastic job of getting smoked the next two days.  Saturday was particularly frustrating given that Kansas City loaded the bases twice and managed one (1) run.

So, while batting order is a tenuous thing and one can certainly debate the final effect the order of the nine hitters has versus, you know, the overall skill level of the nine.  Here is a marginally unconventional, seat of your pants suggestion.

Versus RHP:

  • Jarrod Dyson CF
  • Alex Gordon, LF
  • Alcides Escobar, SS
  • Billy Butler, DH
  • Lorenzo Cain, RF
  • Salvador Perez, C
  • Eric Hosmer, 1B
  • Omar Infante, 2B
  • Mike Moustakas, 3B

Versus LHP:

  • Lorenzo Cain, CF
  • Alex Gordon, LF
  • Salvador Perez, C
  • Billy Butler, DH
  • Danny Valencia, 3B
  • Eric Hosmer, 1B
  • Alcides Escobar, SS
  • Raul Ibanez, RF
  • Omar Infante, 2B

I don’t love these lineups, but I like them better than Ned’s.  Oh, who’s kidding who?  These lineups are money and guarantee a sweep this weekend against Detroit.

Eric Hosmer had four ground ball singles in a meaningless game two nights ago.  He walked three times yesterday in a game the Royals really needed to win.  That’s a whole lot of on-base for two games and exactly what the Royals’ offense needs.

Let’s face it, Hosmer has been flailing at the plate for much of this season and done so batting either second or third in the batting order.  Ned Yost, the master of dome management, has steadfastly refused to move Eric down in the order.  Will his faith start paying off?

Hosmer’s triple slash by month for his career:

  • April: .250/.323/.365
  • May:  .253/.290/.381
  • June: .254/.308/.390
  • July: .303/.360/.454
  • August: .295/.356/.442
  • Sept/Oct: .294/.339/.453

Yes, month’s are arbitrary marking points, but I think it’s safe to say history might be on the Royals’ side when it comes to increased production out of the guy who, quite honestly, is supposed to be the best hitter on this team.  Given that Eric Hosmer was quite possibly the worst hitter in the lineup in June (and that includes Mike Moustakas), he really has nowhere to go but up.

The Royals need Hosmer to go up in a big way right now.  Two games in Minnesota does not a hot streak make, but it sure doesn’t hurt.  Especially with Kansas City heading into two three game sets against teams with losing records before coming home for four against the division leading Tigers.

 

This is a statistical snapshot of  the Royals rotation prior to James Shields’s disaster start on Tuesday.

Rk Pos Name ERA G GS GF IP H R ER HR BB SO BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W
1 SP Jeremy Guthrie 3.69 17 17 0 112.1 110 48 46 16 27 68 469 111 4.67 1.220 8.8 1.3 2.2 5.4 2.52
2 SP Jason Vargas* 3.53 17 17 0 112.1 115 45 44 14 25 74 469 116 4.20 1.246 9.2 1.1 2.0 5.9 2.96
3 SP James Shields 3.79 17 17 0 111.2 120 58 47 15 24 87 476 108 4.12 1.290 9.7 1.2 1.9 7.0 3.63
4 SP Yordano Ventura 3.26 15 15 0 88.1 87 33 32 7 25 76 372 125 3.29 1.268 8.9 0.7 2.5 7.7 3.04
5 SP Danny Duffy* 2.60 17 11 1 72.2 49 23 21 5 29 55 294 157 3.80 1.073 6.1 0.6 3.6 6.8 1.90
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/1/2014.

The symmetry of the top three starters is kind of cool. Seventeen starts for each, they are within two-thirds of an inning and they are within seven batters faced.

What causes some concern is the ERA column followed by the FIP column a little further down the line. Entering Tuesday, all three were outperforming their FIP. Guthrie has been outpacing his FIP and xFIP for his entire career. Last year, the difference between his FIP and ERA was 0.75 and that was good for a 1.1 fWAR. This year, the difference is nearly a full run and at the halfway point, his fWAR is 0.5. Vargas is usually a little closer. Shields’s FIP is his highest since 2010. Not coincidentally, that was his worst season as a starter.

This is three-fifths of the rotation. These are the guys making the serious cash. And they look to be walking the tightrope.

Shields has been miserable his last nine starts. In his last nine starts, he has a 5.43 ERA covering 56.1 innings. During that time, he’s struck out 36, walked 14 and surrendered 10 home runs. Opponents are hitting .323/.362/.557. He doesn’t look hurt or mechanically broken. He’s just hittable.

If you revisit the chart above, Guthrie and Vargas are exactly the same pitcher, statistically speaking. And it looks like both will regress. ZIPS has Guthrie throwing 88 more innings this year with a 4.64 ERA. It has Vargas down for 98 innings and a 4.55 ERA. Obviously, these are projections so they have to be taken as such, but those numbers are frightening. At this point, the best thing we can say about Guthrie and Vargas is they have kept their team in games when they make starts. That’s not meant to be some kind of backhanded compliment. It’s fact. These two are going out there knowing their offense isn’t going to give them a ton of runs, and they grind out their appearances. The Royals have won 19 of their 34 starts. That’s a .559 winning percentage. That gets you into first place in the AL East.

The projection on Shields is more positive. ZIPS has him down for 106 innings and a 3.83 ERA.

Any time we gaze into the crystal ball, we really don’t know what’s going to happen. This isn’t meant to be a negative type of post where I’m spreading gloom and doom. Shields could find his change-up magic and Guthrie and Vargas could beat the projections all season, just like they have so far. That would be nice, wouldn’t it? Or everyone could go off the rails. Hell, if anyone missed time due to injury, the whole thing could fall to shambles as there’s no major league depth in the organization right now.

The point is, Shields is scuffling and Vargas and Guthrie are way outperforming their peripherals. The Royals really need Shields to get it together if they are going to make any kind of run at October. Because to count on the rest of this rotation to continue to be this great would be risky.

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