Comments on: Report Cards: The Pitchers

By: jim fetterolf

jim fetterolf — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 21:41:40 +0000

I checked Crow on fangraphs and he is up to 6.9% for using his curve and is able to throw it for strikes against righties. Crow is a lot better against right than left, which is why a solid change and curve will be needed, even in relief, to avoid becoming a ‘roogie’. I expect him to go to winter ball and throw nothing but curve and change for a month, then concentrate on them in SP. fangraphs shows his wFB at -1.5, wSL at 8.5, wCB 0.3, and wCH -0.1. Gives an idea of what he needs to concentrate on.

By: Craig Brown

Craig Brown — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 21:41:31 +0000

RP – There have been so many teams who have beaten Mazzaro… But it was the Indians on May 16. The Yankees got to his in his previous outing.

By: Mr. Dave

Mr. Dave — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 21:04:14 +0000

Austyn – If I had seen it, I would have been there to support the argument. Everything about him to me screams future closer at this point. Maybe, as Jim said, he can develop a third pitch to the point where he throws it consistantly, but I wonder if he’s more valuable in the pen or not. Keep in mind all the young starters the Royals have. They’ll need to find room for these pitchers, since I doubt that even Yost will go with an eight man rotation.

By: royal pain

royal pain — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 20:55:02 +0000

No arguments, except…

Didn’t Mazzaro get his brains beat in by the Yankees, not the Indians?

By: Craig Brown

Craig Brown — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 20:38:01 +0000

Jim- It IS difficult to determine the “mean” in rookie pitchers in general. Rookie relievers specifically because they traffic in such small sample sizes. When I refer to the mean in the post, I’m referring to a percentage around league average. It’s a rough guide. Some pitchers will always outperform the league average, but we can’t get a feel for that until about three years or so into a relievers’ career.

Way too soon to think that Crow, Coleman & Holland can sustain their performance. League average strand rate is 72.7% this year. Total, 14 relievers (min. 20 IP) have a strand rate of 90% or higher this year… three of them are Crow, Coleman & Holland. I’m not going to say they can’t keep this up. I will say it’s going to be difficult to maintain their current level of performance.

By: jim fetterolf

jim fetterolf — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 19:38:54 +0000

“There may be some regression to the bullpen mean in the second half, but the strikeouts will cushion the blow.”

A serious question: How do you establish a mean for rookie pitchers? I would think that for Crow, Coleman, and Holland that the mean would be exactly their yearly totals thus far. Then for Soria and the mean, that would require a progression to return to his mean. Does “regression to the bullpen mean” actually have any meaning for the current staff, or is it more a euphemism for “These are the Royals, they can’t be any good, statistics be damned:)”?

By: jim fetterolf

jim fetterolf — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 17:30:57 +0000

“I thought my head was going to be bit off saying he couldn’t make it as a starter”

Aaron probably couldn’t move into the rotation today, but secondary pitches are learned, not bestowed at birth. His bad showing as a minor leaguer came from concentrating on secondary pitches, which often leads top talent to look bad. In the majors Crow has started throwing his curve a little more over the season and developing enough trust to use it as a show pitch. As I remember, Greinke mastered his change in the ‘pen, so there is hope.

By: Austyn

Austyn — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 16:38:59 +0000

Mr.Dave, I could have used your help last week when I said that Crow couldn’t make it as a starter because he pitched so poorly as one in the minors and that he only had one great pitch (Thank you for clearing it up that he has 2) and that that is it. I thought my head was going to be bit off saying he couldn’t make it as a starter haha.

By: jim fetterolf

jim fetterolf — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 16:27:02 +0000

Reasonable evaluations. I would add that Holland is probably most likely to be a starter next year as he has five pitches while Crow has two that he trusts, isn’t comfortable with his knuckle-curve, and uses three different grips for his change, because none work. But both pitches can be added, so the potential is there.

On Hochevar, I’ld say he projects as a closer, starting an inning in the wind-up and less than one time through the order.

By: Mr. Dave

Mr. Dave — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 16:21:20 +0000

Crow is a future closer to me. He has two pitches, both of which are good. Yet, to be a viable starter, he needs a third pitch, which he simply doesn’t have. Is he better pitching the 8th, or possibly the 9th in the future, or being a number 4 starter? With all the arms coming up, it’s a no brainer.