Comments on: The Atomic Slider

By: jim fetterolf

jim fetterolf — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 04:43:06 +0000

I think Crow is hurt. Ned Yost mentioned a month or so ago that Crow had a shoulder twinge dating to about the time of the All-Star game and he hasn’t been the same since. I think he’s basically been shut down, stays in the ‘pen, comes in and throws ten balls every few weeks, but isn’t pushed.

As for Aaron Crow’s rotation future, he needs a good third pitch, a change-up that he can throw for strikes from the same delivery as his FB. I assume that gets worked on this winter and also assume Crow starts in AAA next year as a starter. What he is missing in his arsenal is what Craig talks about above with Hochevar’s slider looking like his sinker coming out of the hand, deception, which will help his poor splits with lefties and give him a rotation shot. I think Greg Holland may have a better chance as starter, as he already has a sinker as out pitch.

By: Ted

Ted — Sun, 18 Sep 2011 22:43:50 +0000

Does anyone know why Crow has only pitched 3.1 innings this month? Not that I ever believed DM when he said Crow would get a shot at the rotation next season, but it seems unlikely given his usage this year (60 innings spread over 55 appearances). Even if he does make the rotation, what would his innings limit be, 120-130?

By: jim fetterolf

jim fetterolf — Sun, 18 Sep 2011 02:22:53 +0000

“Yost’s problems with him earlier in the season was he would leave him in too long where he would get hammered with the big inning. That’s changed in the 2nd half as well.”

Word on Hoch was that, when he got in trouble, he’ld try to just throw fastballs by big-league hitters. Yost said he was going to leave him out there til he figured out to work through it. Seems fewer big innings now than earlier.

By: Craig Brown

Craig Brown — Sun, 18 Sep 2011 02:17:16 +0000

Thanks for the comment, Josh. I’m with you… I’m very skeptical of pitch classification for someone like Hochevar, but in the case of his slider, I’m buying the data. You’re not the only one to bring up the injury potential with the slider… The Royals have always been kind of cautious when it comes to his usage. Hillman abused almost all his starters, but never seemed to do that to Hochevar. Yost’s problems with him earlier in the season was he would leave him in too long where he would get hammered with the big inning. That’s changed in the 2nd half as well.

By: Josh Shepardson

Josh Shepardson — Sat, 17 Sep 2011 06:55:25 +0000

Awesome article Craig. It’s not just his slider that has given hitters fits though, his cutter has been money too. My first thought was that maybe some sliders were getting mis-classified as cutters, but judging by the difference in velocity and movement, I’m thinking that’s not the case. As long as he doesn’t enter Brett Anderson territory in terms of usage, he’ll hopefully be able to use the pitch without suffering any injury.

By: Craig Brown

Craig Brown — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 20:54:38 +0000

Thanks for the comments, everyone. It is true the Royals have an organizational philosophy regarding sliders… I think they don’t let anyone throw it until they reach Hi-A. Or maybe Double-A. Regardless, it is a strange way to handle pitchers. We know the cookie-cutter, one size fits all approach with pitchers doesn’t work. But outside of four starts in A-ball after he signed in ’06, Hochevar has never worked below AA.

By: Daniel Smith

Daniel Smith — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 20:52:49 +0000

Great points, and yes, Hoch’s emergence as a competent starter does change the Royals’ shopping some this offseason. While it’s pretty easy to pencil in Hoch, Duffy, and Paulino into next year’s rotation, though, of the remaining two spots, I’m thinking they’ll have to make at least one signing where they’ll have to put forth some payroll if they want to take a run at the division in 2012. The other spot, I think, would be fine with something like either bringing Chen back or a pitcher of equal-ish level.

Of course, this still assumes a lot — Hoch staying around his 2nd half performance, Paulino at least duplicating his performance, and Duffy making a significant improvement. Otherwise, hope would have to fall on the shoulders of Montgomery or another prospect making the jump and making significant contribution.

By: jim fetterolf

jim fetterolf — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 17:56:16 +0000

“where he complained because he was forced to stop relying on his slider so much.”

Not uncommon, the purpose of the minors being to perfect more pitches. Luke’s slider now is a great pitch because it looks like his sinker from the release point. Without the sinker, curve, and change he’s a slightly slower Aaron Crow with batters having a coin-flip chance of guessing right, as opposed to someone like Master Chen with half a dozen pitches and a couple of different arm angles and the ability to add or subtract speed on all of them, which creates his magic show. BTW, that’s why I pay Master Chen whatever he wants to stay another year, he is such a fine example for the younger guys.

By: jim fetterolf

jim fetterolf — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 16:13:43 +0000

Good post, Craig, excellent detail. I would add that, per another site’s piece on the subject, that Hoch’s slider ranks second only to Cliff Lee over his recent run of success. He has also added a couple of mph to his fastball. This all should be repeatable. and bodes well for next year.

By: Ted

Ted — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 14:22:14 +0000

Hochevar’s string of successful starts is just another reason why I am hoping DM holds tight this offseason (on the rotation front). It isn’t that I suddenly think our starting rotation will be great, or even much better than league average, next season, as it is that I still don’t think we know what we have for a rotation. I was listening to an ESPN podcast a couple weeks ago, Keith Law and Eric Karabell were discussing the Royals and the one thing they said which resonated the strongest is that pitchers always develop in their own way and on their own timeline. What they said is true for all prospects, really, but I think their point was that pitchers can be especially maddening in their erratic development arcs. Remember two seasons ago when nearly every prospect in the system failed to meet expectations and panic set in among the fans? And remember last season when nearly every prospect exceeded expectations and the entire planet decided that the Royals must have the best farm system in the history of baseball? These things often swing like a pendulum but as fans we of course want to see steady straight-line progression. When we don’t get that we can begin to hit the panic button and start demanding radical change. Of course everyone knows that DM will need to supplement the team with trade acquisitions and/or free agent signings, but if he charges into the fray now, spending prospects and dollars in pursuit of early contention (2012), then we might spend ourselves into a rut. Outside of DH, 1B and maybe catcher (is Perez really a 300+ ML hitter?) I think our team is in flux right now. Lots of people are ready to make definitive statements about this team’s future based largely on one season. I think that would be folly. Alex Gordon looks changed, and the fact that he has kept this up for an entire season is encouraging, but what if he regresses? Ditto for Melky. Will Alcides continue to hit an empty 250, or is he a 220 hitter waiting to happen? Moose, the assortment of 2B options, Francoeur, Cain…also question marks. Paulino? Is Hochevar really dependable or is this something transient? Will Monty and Duffy progress next season? What will Myers do with a healthy knee?