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	<title>Comments on: That Was Easy, The Next Step Is Hard</title>
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	<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634</link>
	<description>Deconstructing The Process</description>
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		<title>By: jim fetterolf</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634&#038;cpage=1#comment-10709</link>
		<dc:creator>jim fetterolf</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Nov 2011 21:28:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634#comment-10709</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;With an 8 man bullpen, the starters really only need to go 5-6 innings&quot;

We tried that last season and it didn&#039;t work, use three or four relievers any given game and one will blow up.  I would note that the top five fWAR pitchers last year averaged over seven innings per start.  James Shields averaged nearly eight.  Paulino, Francis, and Chen were six inning pitchers, Hoch 6.2 or so, Duffy five innings.  Throwing strikes with command will help that.

&quot;Why can’t Holland or Coleman be the fireman to come in when they need 4-7 outs?&quot;

Agree on that, no reason that the hot hand should be pulled until he falters.  I&#039;ld rather see Holland do the fireman in the 8th with runners on, then pitch the 9th when he&#039;s warm and knows what he&#039;s got.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;With an 8 man bullpen, the starters really only need to go 5-6 innings&#8221;</p>
<p>We tried that last season and it didn&#8217;t work, use three or four relievers any given game and one will blow up.  I would note that the top five fWAR pitchers last year averaged over seven innings per start.  James Shields averaged nearly eight.  Paulino, Francis, and Chen were six inning pitchers, Hoch 6.2 or so, Duffy five innings.  Throwing strikes with command will help that.</p>
<p>&#8220;Why can’t Holland or Coleman be the fireman to come in when they need 4-7 outs?&#8221;</p>
<p>Agree on that, no reason that the hot hand should be pulled until he falters.  I&#8217;ld rather see Holland do the fireman in the 8th with runners on, then pitch the 9th when he&#8217;s warm and knows what he&#8217;s got.</p>
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		<title>By: Kyle</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634&#038;cpage=1#comment-10706</link>
		<dc:creator>Kyle</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Nov 2011 18:58:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634#comment-10706</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With an 8 man bullpen, the starters really only need to go 5-6 innings.  There is no reason that Crow, Holland, Coleman, or Wood can&#039;t go 2 innings each twice a week.  They will not be &quot;hiding&quot; Adcock next season in the bullpen, so that will allow them to have 8 pitchers that they can go to any night of the week.  Yost (Any manager) really needs to get away from the &quot;roles&quot; in the bullpen.  Why is Soria only pitching in the 9th inning in save opportunities?  Why can&#039;t Holland or Coleman be the fireman to come in when they need 4-7 outs?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With an 8 man bullpen, the starters really only need to go 5-6 innings.  There is no reason that Crow, Holland, Coleman, or Wood can&#8217;t go 2 innings each twice a week.  They will not be &#8220;hiding&#8221; Adcock next season in the bullpen, so that will allow them to have 8 pitchers that they can go to any night of the week.  Yost (Any manager) really needs to get away from the &#8220;roles&#8221; in the bullpen.  Why is Soria only pitching in the 9th inning in save opportunities?  Why can&#8217;t Holland or Coleman be the fireman to come in when they need 4-7 outs?</p>
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		<title>By: jim fetterolf</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634&#038;cpage=1#comment-10705</link>
		<dc:creator>jim fetterolf</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Nov 2011 18:06:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634#comment-10705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;At the same time Chen and Francis are not going to put them over the top.&quot;

True, but neither will Holland nor Gonzales.   What will put them over the top is the new position players; Giavotella, Hosmer, Moose, and Perez.  Chen has been productive and eats some innings, Francis less so.

&quot;Maybe no one will, but neither strikeout enough to be more than a filler type pitcher.&quot;

Duffy strikes out lots of people and that didn&#039;t help.  More important than K&#039;s is net K&#039;s, strikeouts minus walks, and average innings per start.  Rather than K/9 I prefer strikeouts per game, K/G, for starters.  Strikeouts take lots of pitches.  Master Chen can get outs without as many K&#039;s.  Francis can&#039;t.  What we need are starters who can finish the 7th and get us to Holland and Soria.  Nine strikeouts through five innings doesn&#039;t really help.  A worry I have with Sanchez is that his history shows a six inning or less pitcher, likely a result of high K&#039;s and BB&#039;s.  He would likely be a better pitcher taking a little stuff off and getting the hitters to put the ball in play.  With his movement they would have a hard time squaring the ball, so a few more outs with a few less pitches could make him a seven inning starter.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;At the same time Chen and Francis are not going to put them over the top.&#8221;</p>
<p>True, but neither will Holland nor Gonzales.   What will put them over the top is the new position players; Giavotella, Hosmer, Moose, and Perez.  Chen has been productive and eats some innings, Francis less so.</p>
<p>&#8220;Maybe no one will, but neither strikeout enough to be more than a filler type pitcher.&#8221;</p>
<p>Duffy strikes out lots of people and that didn&#8217;t help.  More important than K&#8217;s is net K&#8217;s, strikeouts minus walks, and average innings per start.  Rather than K/9 I prefer strikeouts per game, K/G, for starters.  Strikeouts take lots of pitches.  Master Chen can get outs without as many K&#8217;s.  Francis can&#8217;t.  What we need are starters who can finish the 7th and get us to Holland and Soria.  Nine strikeouts through five innings doesn&#8217;t really help.  A worry I have with Sanchez is that his history shows a six inning or less pitcher, likely a result of high K&#8217;s and BB&#8217;s.  He would likely be a better pitcher taking a little stuff off and getting the hitters to put the ball in play.  With his movement they would have a hard time squaring the ball, so a few more outs with a few less pitches could make him a seven inning starter.</p>
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		<title>By: Kyle</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634&#038;cpage=1#comment-10703</link>
		<dc:creator>Kyle</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Nov 2011 17:27:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634#comment-10703</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jim, that&#039;s why I put it in quotation marks.  I am not big on advanced metrics, especially defensive ones.  He has outperformed his FIP, xFIP, and BABIP for a few years now, so we can probably get over the fact that he is &quot;lucky&quot;.  At the same time Chen and Francis are not going to put them over the top.  Maybe no one will, but neither strikeout enough to be more than a filler type pitcher.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jim, that&#8217;s why I put it in quotation marks.  I am not big on advanced metrics, especially defensive ones.  He has outperformed his FIP, xFIP, and BABIP for a few years now, so we can probably get over the fact that he is &#8220;lucky&#8221;.  At the same time Chen and Francis are not going to put them over the top.  Maybe no one will, but neither strikeout enough to be more than a filler type pitcher.</p>
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		<title>By: jim fetterolf</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634&#038;cpage=1#comment-10696</link>
		<dc:creator>jim fetterolf</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Nov 2011 15:57:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634#comment-10696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;Chen has also been very “lucky” according to his BABIP against and FIP.&quot;

&quot;Lucky&quot; is the word so-called advanced metrics uses to explain performance that its stats can&#039;t.  Master Chen throws six pitches from three arm angles and is difficult to square up.  When the new fielding fx data becomes public knowledge, we&#039;ll see that not all ground balls or line drives are created equal and we&#039;ll finally be able to stop talking about luck.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Chen has also been very “lucky” according to his BABIP against and FIP.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;Lucky&#8221; is the word so-called advanced metrics uses to explain performance that its stats can&#8217;t.  Master Chen throws six pitches from three arm angles and is difficult to square up.  When the new fielding fx data becomes public knowledge, we&#8217;ll see that not all ground balls or line drives are created equal and we&#8217;ll finally be able to stop talking about luck.</p>
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		<title>By: Kyle</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634&#038;cpage=1#comment-10692</link>
		<dc:creator>Kyle</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Nov 2011 13:54:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634#comment-10692</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Rookie of the Year vote is a joke most years.  Trumbo was up all year, so his counting stats (HR, RBI, etc.) were higher than most.  It is pretty ridiculous that Hosmer didn&#039;t get it, but Hellickson, Pineda, or Nova had pretty good chances too.

Francis had a pretty decent year last year, but is not likely to duplicate it.  He does not strikeout ANYONE, but also gives up very few walks.  If he comes back fully healthy from shoulder surgery, with a couple of mph added to his FB, he could be very effective.  Chen has also been very &quot;lucky&quot; according to his BABIP against and FIP.  Maybe he is the type of pitcher that will always outperform his peripherals.

Again, there are alot of ifs in this rotation.  Adding one more arm whether it&#039;s back of the rotation filler (Chen or Francis) or bringing in a live arm on a few year contract (E.Jackson, Shields, Gonzalez, etc.), would be a great idea.  I would hate to see the top Royals prospects playing for another organization, but they are just prospects and haven&#039;t proven anything.  

Myers is terrying the cover off the ball in AFL, but everyone does.  Monty, Dwyer, Odorizzi all had their ups and downs last year.  Hopefully they figure it out, and are in KC by the end of 2012.  You need 5 starters in a rotation (or 6 if you have Davies), so you need about 10-12 GOOD options.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Rookie of the Year vote is a joke most years.  Trumbo was up all year, so his counting stats (HR, RBI, etc.) were higher than most.  It is pretty ridiculous that Hosmer didn&#8217;t get it, but Hellickson, Pineda, or Nova had pretty good chances too.</p>
<p>Francis had a pretty decent year last year, but is not likely to duplicate it.  He does not strikeout ANYONE, but also gives up very few walks.  If he comes back fully healthy from shoulder surgery, with a couple of mph added to his FB, he could be very effective.  Chen has also been very &#8220;lucky&#8221; according to his BABIP against and FIP.  Maybe he is the type of pitcher that will always outperform his peripherals.</p>
<p>Again, there are alot of ifs in this rotation.  Adding one more arm whether it&#8217;s back of the rotation filler (Chen or Francis) or bringing in a live arm on a few year contract (E.Jackson, Shields, Gonzalez, etc.), would be a great idea.  I would hate to see the top Royals prospects playing for another organization, but they are just prospects and haven&#8217;t proven anything.  </p>
<p>Myers is terrying the cover off the ball in AFL, but everyone does.  Monty, Dwyer, Odorizzi all had their ups and downs last year.  Hopefully they figure it out, and are in KC by the end of 2012.  You need 5 starters in a rotation (or 6 if you have Davies), so you need about 10-12 GOOD options.</p>
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		<title>By: steve y</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634&#038;cpage=1#comment-10688</link>
		<dc:creator>steve y</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Nov 2011 13:30:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634#comment-10688</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Unless he is playing games to get the price down, looks (see below quote) like Dayton is not going to sell the farm of prospects this year to get a top starter, which I have come to believe is the best move, and it looks like most of the rest of us do as well.  It also looks like he is still planning to add a Jeff Francis or Bruce Chen (and get the extra pick for Chen if it is not him, a good move I think). This according to mlbtraderumors.com: &quot;Rival teams say the Royals are no longer looking to trade for a top-of-the-rotation starter, according to Stark. They acquired Jonathan Sanchez earlier in the week and now prefer to hold their prospects and spend on back-of-the-rotation arms.&quot;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Unless he is playing games to get the price down, looks (see below quote) like Dayton is not going to sell the farm of prospects this year to get a top starter, which I have come to believe is the best move, and it looks like most of the rest of us do as well.  It also looks like he is still planning to add a Jeff Francis or Bruce Chen (and get the extra pick for Chen if it is not him, a good move I think). This according to mlbtraderumors.com: &#8220;Rival teams say the Royals are no longer looking to trade for a top-of-the-rotation starter, according to Stark. They acquired Jonathan Sanchez earlier in the week and now prefer to hold their prospects and spend on back-of-the-rotation arms.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: jim fetterolf</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634&#038;cpage=1#comment-10678</link>
		<dc:creator>jim fetterolf</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Nov 2011 03:01:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634#comment-10678</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Took a quick look at fangraphs, there were fifteen pitchers at 5.0 WAR and up.  For comparison, Jeff Francis and Felipe Paulino were 2.6, Derek Holland 3.6, Gio Gonzales 3.5.  We&#039;ld have to give up a lot to get one more win over an FA we&#039;ll let go and a pitcher picked up off the scrap heap.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Took a quick look at fangraphs, there were fifteen pitchers at 5.0 WAR and up.  For comparison, Jeff Francis and Felipe Paulino were 2.6, Derek Holland 3.6, Gio Gonzales 3.5.  We&#8217;ld have to give up a lot to get one more win over an FA we&#8217;ll let go and a pitcher picked up off the scrap heap.</p>
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		<title>By: jim fetterolf</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634&#038;cpage=1#comment-10677</link>
		<dc:creator>jim fetterolf</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Nov 2011 02:53:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634#comment-10677</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;if they don’t bring in at least one or two legitimate rotation candidates then they’re being irresponsible.&quot;

Already have one in Sanchez.  Irresponsible, to me, is trading Monty or Myers for anyone short of Justin Verlander.  Once you get past the top ten or fifteen pitchers, there&#039;s nothing special about the second level.  I see no use in doing a reverse Greinke to pick up three or four more wins a year.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;if they don’t bring in at least one or two legitimate rotation candidates then they’re being irresponsible.&#8221;</p>
<p>Already have one in Sanchez.  Irresponsible, to me, is trading Monty or Myers for anyone short of Justin Verlander.  Once you get past the top ten or fifteen pitchers, there&#8217;s nothing special about the second level.  I see no use in doing a reverse Greinke to pick up three or four more wins a year.</p>
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		<title>By: jim fetterolf</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634&#038;cpage=1#comment-10676</link>
		<dc:creator>jim fetterolf</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Nov 2011 23:46:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4634#comment-10676</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;It makes little sense to stand pat and hope for the best when your offense is middle of the pack or better.&quot;

Been little standing, pat or otherwise.  Hoch is the only starter left from the beginning of the season and Paulino and Sanchez look to be upgrades over Davies and Francis, so that should be worth five to ten wins right there.  The competition for the remaining slots is much more intense than last SP, so there has been a lot of forward movement in that regard.  The team, as-is, is a .500 ball club that will only get better.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;It makes little sense to stand pat and hope for the best when your offense is middle of the pack or better.&#8221;</p>
<p>Been little standing, pat or otherwise.  Hoch is the only starter left from the beginning of the season and Paulino and Sanchez look to be upgrades over Davies and Francis, so that should be worth five to ten wins right there.  The competition for the remaining slots is much more intense than last SP, so there has been a lot of forward movement in that regard.  The team, as-is, is a .500 ball club that will only get better.</p>
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