Sign up for a real service which can illustrate what Hosmer can (and will) do. Sophomore slump? Possible. But highly unlikely.

(You can take the bWAR bunk and toss it. Tell me what Kemp’s was in 2010.)

I gave Billy’s numbers for #3, #4, and #5 slots. How are they irrelevant? He produced at much different levels in different batting order positions and his actual production increased markedly after a swing adjustment. That’s what I see, that’s what the batting order stats support, and that’s even what the 1st half/2nd half splits show.

Anyway, I am similarly confused as to why you are painting me with the “nerdy stats” brush. My argument is not based in deep statistical analysis, it is a simple argument about causation, as in, did Billy hit better because he was moved in the lineup, or did he move in the lineup because he entered and then recovered from a slump. I do not know how to express myself in clearer terms. You look at his macro stats based on his position in the lineup and reach a false conclusion. My disagreement with you has nothing to do with the statistics you use (we both use the same, Billy’s raw hitting stats), my disagreement is with how you use them and with the logical fallacy you are committing. Just look at his game logs. Do it. You will see that he began the season strong (batting fourth), you will his slump begin toward late April (still batting fourth), you will see him moved down in the lineup (to fifth), you will see the slump begin to end in late May (still batting fifth), and you will see him moved back up in the lineup (to third). And if you look at who was batting before him and where he was batting in the lineup during this period, you will see that his slump and subsequent recovery have nothing to do with either (a) whether he was hitting third, fourth or fifth, or (b) whether he was hitting in front of Ka’aihue, Frenchy, Aviles, Gordon, Betemit, Moose or Hosmer. You will also notice that all of this happened before he changed his swing, before he began drawing fewer walks and before his power surge in July. The events are not related. They just are not. And my argument has nothing to do with nerdy stats. Everything else that we disagree about – whether Billy is more productive with a 300/400/460 line versus a 280/320/500 line for instance – is irrelevant to this issue of Billy’s production relative to his position in the lineup.

That is where my ire gets raised. Just because I utilize wOBA and xFIP does not mean I have no comprehension of who should cut off which throw and who should back up where. I have, in my lifetime, picked up the spin of a curveball and been blown off the plate by fastballs that probably were thrown at major league batting practice speed – as has almost everyone else at some level or another. The idea that myself and many others in this so-called ‘blogsophere collective’ spend our summer nights entering formulas into spreadsheets instead of watching the actual games is a tired old tirade that supposed ‘baseball men’ use to not construct real arguments.