No, just teasing Axl a little. Been looking at pitching and note that there are two statistical categories that most #1 starters have in common, high net K/9 and high innings per start. The fact that Paulino, Sanchez, and Duffy all miss bats and can dial up a punch-out when needed is part of my reason for optimism this season and part of why I think those three are significant upgrades over Francis, Davies, and SOS/Mazzaro. The drawback to missing bats, as we see with those three, is that too often the K comes on a six, seven, or eight pitch at-bat. When looking at Ks, K/GS is also a useful number. I remember a Duffy start when he punched out eight or nine batters, walked four or five, left the game after the 4th inning behind by three or four runs. His K/9 was breath taking, his net K/9 wasn’t bad, but not making it past the 6th or 7th inning misses half of what it takes to be an effective starter. Master Chen doesn’t miss a lot of bats, yet he manages to pitch effectively, likely because six pitches from three arm angles makes it hard to get good wood on the ball.

“In your opinion, is HR/9 somehow less “real” an evaluation than simply saying “the guy keeps the ball in the yard”?”

Semantics, although I’m surprised that HR/9 is given weight, thinking it is more a luck sort of thing, just a fly ball a little longer and better placed. HR/9 is a suggestion that stats will move toward the recognition that all Balls in Play are not created equally, which will lead, with FieldFX, to breaking down LD, GB, and FB into smaller chunks of data based on velocity and vector relative to placement of fielders, which will show whether a pitcher is getting squared up or fooling hitters and hitting his spots.

A decent changeup would definitely help him get thru the lineup the third time around but if he’s not throwing the fastball and slider for strikes he won’t be around long enough to worry about that.

Jonathan Sanchez is similarly a two pitch pitcher for the most part with a splitter/change that he throws a handful of times to keep the hitters honest. Same deal with him: when he’s throwing strikes his two plus pitches are enough to get by, even dominate.

You seem to agree that these statistics provide some measure of a pitcher’s ability, but you also want to turn your nose…I do not understand.

Seems a reasonable bet. the 1st round draft picks have started playing; Hoch, Crow, Hoz, Moose, and Gordon, and Perez was a highly rated international signing, maybe Escobar was too. Gio was a 2nd rounder.

“The pitching improvements are minor in my opinion when compared to being better than SOS/Mazarro/Davies.”

And Francis. The improvements all have the mystical peripherals. Guess we could have traded the farm for Gio Gonzales and picked up another 0.9 fWAR while putting Duffy back in Omaha.

At what point as a fan will you at least hold the Royals with some accountability for not providing a winner. Will you be disappointed if they dont win the division in the next 5 years or is that not enough time?

Then by all means short the Royals, you’ll get rich. Others of us see little use in anything before Glass actually bought the team and brought GMDM in.

“Is KC all in 2013?”

I hope we’re never all in, that would mean the farm system had failed and we had to trade sustainability for a chance at instant gratification.

“I’m shocked Dayton/Glass look at this rotation and think it can win 90.”

Haven’t seen that mentioned anywhere but by commentators on blogs. 90 is possible with some breaks, but 81-85 wins is the range I’m seeing, reasonable considering 3/5ths of the rotation has been upgraded with guys who can miss bats and generate the sacred K/9, while the offense looks an improvement over the days of Getz, Aviles, and Treanor with Moose and Hoz having some experience and success to go with their talents.

Its amazing that not one pitcher in the last 15 years (minus Greinke who needed to go back down then come back up) with these high drafts couldn’t be a Matt Moore, young Cole Hamels etc. Crow is who he is now. Someone who found a niche in the bullpen and will have to battle to get a rotation job now. Nothing in KC land is easy. Especially when you can’t touch a Free Agent’s asking price year in and year out…or refuse to.

Is KC all in 2013? 14? As a competitor, I’m shocked Dayton/Glass look at this rotation and think it can win 90. I’m sure they don’t. If they want to win, eventually the rotation needs to be seriously addressed. Not a playoff sniff since 1985 is embarrasing.