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	<title>Comments on: 40 Man Roster Review &#8211; Johnny Giavotella</title>
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	<description>Deconstructing The Process</description>
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		<title>By: Chris</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888&#038;cpage=1#comment-12665</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Jan 2012 21:33:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888#comment-12665</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;Why does everyone call him Gio, when his name is *Gia*votella?&quot;

Because he goes by Gio.  His teammates call him Gio, his twitter handle is Gio, his family restaurant is Gio&#039;s, and the name Gia roughly translates to Jane in Italian.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Why does everyone call him Gio, when his name is *Gia*votella?&#8221;</p>
<p>Because he goes by Gio.  His teammates call him Gio, his twitter handle is Gio, his family restaurant is Gio&#8217;s, and the name Gia roughly translates to Jane in Italian.</p>
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		<title>By: jim fetterolf</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888&#038;cpage=1#comment-12640</link>
		<dc:creator>jim fetterolf</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Jan 2012 02:43:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888#comment-12640</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Agree on the need to win trades. The Latos trade might be a good example of what would be possible, but I would prefer that the prospects be spread out, maybe a AAA in position of need for the next veteran leaving, plus a couple of AA for the veteran after that, and a hot A arm. The trick will be to match the arrival of stud talent in Omaha with the time to trade the veteran. Myers being ready in &#039;13 will coincide with the last year of Frenchy, so Frenchy can be traded. Should Gordon sign a four year extension, I expect to trade him after three when we hope Bubba is ready. 

I like what we got for Zack, it was perfect trade for us at the time, filled two high-skill positions with young, controllable major-league ready talent, plus Odorizzi, perhaps the most important part of the deal. In future we should never need to trade for major-league ready players, should already have the replacement for the veteran ready to come in, so will be looking to replace someone next year or two or three years in future.

This is all kind of depressing, actually, but the alternative is to have the starting nine plus four pitchers all ready to make at least $10 million each in the same year and we&#039;ll never have that much payroll available without NFL-type revenue sharing. We could survive with a $12 million, a couple of $10 mil, an $8, a couple of $7, a $6, a $5 million, and the rest in small change with the $12 million in line to be traded. That totals $65 million plus the everybody else, which is getting out to the edge of what our market can sustain. We can hope that David Glass is banking the payroll savings from last season and next, maybe allow an extra year of Hoz and Moose and Duffy, but I see no way to get to even a $90 million payroll without a major TV deal based on the Royals being an America&#039;s team with a big regional following or without ticket price hikes so great as to make a Royals game a similar financial burden as a Chiefs&#039; game for most fans. On 2 million attendance, it would take a $10/ticket hike to generate another $20 million of revenue, about what Hoz&#039; last year of arbitration might cost us if he&#039;s as good as we expect.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agree on the need to win trades. The Latos trade might be a good example of what would be possible, but I would prefer that the prospects be spread out, maybe a AAA in position of need for the next veteran leaving, plus a couple of AA for the veteran after that, and a hot A arm. The trick will be to match the arrival of stud talent in Omaha with the time to trade the veteran. Myers being ready in &#8217;13 will coincide with the last year of Frenchy, so Frenchy can be traded. Should Gordon sign a four year extension, I expect to trade him after three when we hope Bubba is ready. </p>
<p>I like what we got for Zack, it was perfect trade for us at the time, filled two high-skill positions with young, controllable major-league ready talent, plus Odorizzi, perhaps the most important part of the deal. In future we should never need to trade for major-league ready players, should already have the replacement for the veteran ready to come in, so will be looking to replace someone next year or two or three years in future.</p>
<p>This is all kind of depressing, actually, but the alternative is to have the starting nine plus four pitchers all ready to make at least $10 million each in the same year and we&#8217;ll never have that much payroll available without NFL-type revenue sharing. We could survive with a $12 million, a couple of $10 mil, an $8, a couple of $7, a $6, a $5 million, and the rest in small change with the $12 million in line to be traded. That totals $65 million plus the everybody else, which is getting out to the edge of what our market can sustain. We can hope that David Glass is banking the payroll savings from last season and next, maybe allow an extra year of Hoz and Moose and Duffy, but I see no way to get to even a $90 million payroll without a major TV deal based on the Royals being an America&#8217;s team with a big regional following or without ticket price hikes so great as to make a Royals game a similar financial burden as a Chiefs&#8217; game for most fans. On 2 million attendance, it would take a $10/ticket hike to generate another $20 million of revenue, about what Hoz&#8217; last year of arbitration might cost us if he&#8217;s as good as we expect.</p>
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		<title>By: DanL</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888&#038;cpage=1#comment-12639</link>
		<dc:creator>DanL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Jan 2012 01:11:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888#comment-12639</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We&#039;ll know in 2012 and 2013 if the process will work - Royals will need to get a bump of 10 wins each year. Then you will have some guys in the next wave to bring in as replacements for guys you trade off.

The one problem with the process that I don&#039;t see a good solution to is winning those trades. When you trade a star player and get multiple guys in return - they probably aren&#039;t high-ceiling prospects, or won&#039;t arrive in the bigs for a year or two. As an example, would you prefer what we got for Greinke or a straight one-for-one for a stud 2B like Dustin Ackley, or with an add-in pitcher. My point is the process needs to win the trades to work.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We&#8217;ll know in 2012 and 2013 if the process will work &#8211; Royals will need to get a bump of 10 wins each year. Then you will have some guys in the next wave to bring in as replacements for guys you trade off.</p>
<p>The one problem with the process that I don&#8217;t see a good solution to is winning those trades. When you trade a star player and get multiple guys in return &#8211; they probably aren&#8217;t high-ceiling prospects, or won&#8217;t arrive in the bigs for a year or two. As an example, would you prefer what we got for Greinke or a straight one-for-one for a stud 2B like Dustin Ackley, or with an add-in pitcher. My point is the process needs to win the trades to work.</p>
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		<title>By: jim fetterolf</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888&#038;cpage=1#comment-12638</link>
		<dc:creator>jim fetterolf</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Jan 2012 23:54:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888#comment-12638</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;When do you expect them to win Jim?&quot;

This year we&#039;ll be over .500.

&quot;Just keep turning players over, trade Mous, Hoz, and Gordon at the end of their deals and start over?&quot;

Yep, only way to keep the Process self-sustaining. The trick is to try to get the turnover spaced out enough that it is only one or two veterans per year flipped.

&quot;Who on the roster now knows how to win?&quot;

Pretty much all the starters, after mowing through the minors racking up championships. Of the young studs, better question is whether any of knows how to lose. Duffy and Monty both faced their first losing campaigns last year, hope they learn from it.

&quot;Who on the staff does Hochevar ask advise from?&quot;

Chen and the coaching staff, as Hoch is a fairly old guy. He knows what he has to do, which is locate and command. Best advice for any player is simply &quot;Execute&quot;.

&quot;What’s the point if the overall aspiration is to hopefully not lose 100 games but make it pretty damn tough to win 80 year in and year out.&quot;

Winning 80 won&#039;t be all that tough, 85-90 isn&#039;t unreasonable, the tough part will be getting to 95 or 100 wins without the payroll exploding to the point where we do like the Marlins and dump everybody, then start another five year rebuilding plan.

&quot;If at the trade deadline KC are selling instead of buying, then this just isn’t working.&quot;

Sanchez will be for sale, maybe Frenchy if Myers is crushing Omaha, Soria&#039;s another possibility. Paulino&#039;s even possible, depending on if some of the forgotten lefties light up AAA. Not wise to fall in love with any of the Royals, none will retire here, few will play more than seven years before getting traded for a haul of prospects for the next reload. This won&#039;t be easy, but will be the only way to get us to being and staying an upper-tier team for a decade or more. Basically the Tampa Bay Way.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;When do you expect them to win Jim?&#8221;</p>
<p>This year we&#8217;ll be over .500.</p>
<p>&#8220;Just keep turning players over, trade Mous, Hoz, and Gordon at the end of their deals and start over?&#8221;</p>
<p>Yep, only way to keep the Process self-sustaining. The trick is to try to get the turnover spaced out enough that it is only one or two veterans per year flipped.</p>
<p>&#8220;Who on the roster now knows how to win?&#8221;</p>
<p>Pretty much all the starters, after mowing through the minors racking up championships. Of the young studs, better question is whether any of knows how to lose. Duffy and Monty both faced their first losing campaigns last year, hope they learn from it.</p>
<p>&#8220;Who on the staff does Hochevar ask advise from?&#8221;</p>
<p>Chen and the coaching staff, as Hoch is a fairly old guy. He knows what he has to do, which is locate and command. Best advice for any player is simply &#8220;Execute&#8221;.</p>
<p>&#8220;What’s the point if the overall aspiration is to hopefully not lose 100 games but make it pretty damn tough to win 80 year in and year out.&#8221;</p>
<p>Winning 80 won&#8217;t be all that tough, 85-90 isn&#8217;t unreasonable, the tough part will be getting to 95 or 100 wins without the payroll exploding to the point where we do like the Marlins and dump everybody, then start another five year rebuilding plan.</p>
<p>&#8220;If at the trade deadline KC are selling instead of buying, then this just isn’t working.&#8221;</p>
<p>Sanchez will be for sale, maybe Frenchy if Myers is crushing Omaha, Soria&#8217;s another possibility. Paulino&#8217;s even possible, depending on if some of the forgotten lefties light up AAA. Not wise to fall in love with any of the Royals, none will retire here, few will play more than seven years before getting traded for a haul of prospects for the next reload. This won&#8217;t be easy, but will be the only way to get us to being and staying an upper-tier team for a decade or more. Basically the Tampa Bay Way.</p>
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		<title>By: Axl</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888&#038;cpage=1#comment-12637</link>
		<dc:creator>Axl</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Jan 2012 23:12:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888#comment-12637</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When do you expect them to win Jim?  Just keep turning players over, trade Mous, Hoz, and Gordon at the end of their deals and start over?  Déjà vu right now flipping Damon, Dye and Beltran.  That 2000 team led by Mac Suzuki and Blake Stein...same as what&#039;s going on now.  You can&#039;t score enough every night in and night when the team ERA is 5.  You don&#039;t seem to care if they ever win, just drunk off the thrills of a minor league system and process.  You really think a $35 million dollar payroll last year coupled w/ a chance of Hosmer and Moustakas not getting locked up in the future they will retain 1 last fan?  They can&#039;t keep doing this.  

Who on the roster now knows how to win?  Who on the staff does Hochevar ask advise from? Chen? Paulino..a bunch of guys that have never been there before.  Sanchez had success as a 3rd starter 1 year but needs to find himself again.  What&#039;s the point if the overall aspiration is to hopefully not lose 100 games but make it pretty damn tough to win 80 year in and year out.  This team is progressing and the fruits of GMDM&#039;s labors are close to paying off but they won&#039;t if he hopes everyone pans out.  If at the trade deadline KC are selling instead of buying, then this just isn&#039;t working.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When do you expect them to win Jim?  Just keep turning players over, trade Mous, Hoz, and Gordon at the end of their deals and start over?  Déjà vu right now flipping Damon, Dye and Beltran.  That 2000 team led by Mac Suzuki and Blake Stein&#8230;same as what&#8217;s going on now.  You can&#8217;t score enough every night in and night when the team ERA is 5.  You don&#8217;t seem to care if they ever win, just drunk off the thrills of a minor league system and process.  You really think a $35 million dollar payroll last year coupled w/ a chance of Hosmer and Moustakas not getting locked up in the future they will retain 1 last fan?  They can&#8217;t keep doing this.  </p>
<p>Who on the roster now knows how to win?  Who on the staff does Hochevar ask advise from? Chen? Paulino..a bunch of guys that have never been there before.  Sanchez had success as a 3rd starter 1 year but needs to find himself again.  What&#8217;s the point if the overall aspiration is to hopefully not lose 100 games but make it pretty damn tough to win 80 year in and year out.  This team is progressing and the fruits of GMDM&#8217;s labors are close to paying off but they won&#8217;t if he hopes everyone pans out.  If at the trade deadline KC are selling instead of buying, then this just isn&#8217;t working.</p>
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		<title>By: jim fetterolf</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888&#038;cpage=1#comment-12636</link>
		<dc:creator>jim fetterolf</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Jan 2012 21:14:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888#comment-12636</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;Not sure if it was planned, but seems like a bit of gamble on the current wave – they have basically two years before competition arrives.&quot;

I&#039;m thinking that the wave of &#039;11 was a little bit of an accident, Kila underwhelming, which brought Hoz up early, Aviles failing, which gave us Gio in &#039;11 instead of &#039;12, Matt Treanor getting hurt, which opened the door for Savior Perez. But offsetting that was Cain being held back another year by the play of Frenchy, Melky, and Alex. I think GMDM probably expected a second pitcher to break through last year, which is why he had Francis and Chen on one-year contracts. Pitching is likely to get crowded in the minors this year.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Not sure if it was planned, but seems like a bit of gamble on the current wave – they have basically two years before competition arrives.&#8221;</p>
<p>I&#8217;m thinking that the wave of &#8217;11 was a little bit of an accident, Kila underwhelming, which brought Hoz up early, Aviles failing, which gave us Gio in &#8217;11 instead of &#8217;12, Matt Treanor getting hurt, which opened the door for Savior Perez. But offsetting that was Cain being held back another year by the play of Frenchy, Melky, and Alex. I think GMDM probably expected a second pitcher to break through last year, which is why he had Francis and Chen on one-year contracts. Pitching is likely to get crowded in the minors this year.</p>
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		<title>By: jim fetterolf</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888&#038;cpage=1#comment-12634</link>
		<dc:creator>jim fetterolf</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Jan 2012 20:36:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888#comment-12634</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Myers is closest, then maybe Yem Prades and Rey Navarro. Until Colon shows otherwise, I see him as Yuni&#039;s replacement at UIF in &#039;13. I expect Myers to spend the year in Omaha, then push for a promotion in &#039;13. Unlike Hosmer, Wil isn&#039;t blocked by Kila, so will go a little slower. I imagine that GMDM hopes to hold Myers off until &#039;13 to space the contracts a little as Montgomery probably goes on the clock this year.

Been thinking a little on the flow of talent and payroll and that will be interesting and challenging. Given payroll limitations, GMDM will need to try to get contracts and prospects spaced so that he can trade one or two stars per year to keep payroll under control while maintaining competitiveness. Because of that, I assume Billy and Soria are both traded with a year left on contract, then a year or two later Gordon traded, then a couple of years after that, Moose and Hoz, and so on. Extremely challenging task under current revenue system, but no way out short of an NFL type socialist revenue sharing and it won&#039;t work if we start trading prospects who aren&#039;t excess.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Myers is closest, then maybe Yem Prades and Rey Navarro. Until Colon shows otherwise, I see him as Yuni&#8217;s replacement at UIF in &#8217;13. I expect Myers to spend the year in Omaha, then push for a promotion in &#8217;13. Unlike Hosmer, Wil isn&#8217;t blocked by Kila, so will go a little slower. I imagine that GMDM hopes to hold Myers off until &#8217;13 to space the contracts a little as Montgomery probably goes on the clock this year.</p>
<p>Been thinking a little on the flow of talent and payroll and that will be interesting and challenging. Given payroll limitations, GMDM will need to try to get contracts and prospects spaced so that he can trade one or two stars per year to keep payroll under control while maintaining competitiveness. Because of that, I assume Billy and Soria are both traded with a year left on contract, then a year or two later Gordon traded, then a couple of years after that, Moose and Hoz, and so on. Extremely challenging task under current revenue system, but no way out short of an NFL type socialist revenue sharing and it won&#8217;t work if we start trading prospects who aren&#8217;t excess.</p>
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		<title>By: DanL</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888&#038;cpage=1#comment-12632</link>
		<dc:creator>DanL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Jan 2012 18:51:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888#comment-12632</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In looking over the top Royals non-pitching prospect, seems like only Wil Myers can make a push in 2012. After Wil, there is only Colon and CRob projected to arrive in the next two years - neither of which would seem to be a lock on making it. Not sure if it was planned, but seems like a bit of gamble on the current wave - they have basically two years before competition arrives.

If Wil puts up a Hosmer in AAA, what do the Royals do - Frenchy has RF for two years.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In looking over the top Royals non-pitching prospect, seems like only Wil Myers can make a push in 2012. After Wil, there is only Colon and CRob projected to arrive in the next two years &#8211; neither of which would seem to be a lock on making it. Not sure if it was planned, but seems like a bit of gamble on the current wave &#8211; they have basically two years before competition arrives.</p>
<p>If Wil puts up a Hosmer in AAA, what do the Royals do &#8211; Frenchy has RF for two years.</p>
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		<title>By: jim fetterolf</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888&#038;cpage=1#comment-12627</link>
		<dc:creator>jim fetterolf</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Jan 2012 05:27:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888#comment-12627</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Probably wouldn&#039;t break the bank, probably could be better used for other contracts, like extra money to get Zack back or to make an extension with one of the young stars. Right now Alex is negotiating, this time next year Perez might get extended, there will be pressure to make long offers to Moose and Hoz, Billy will be on the table the year after. I assume that GMDM has some fairly fixed sum he can spend over the next five years, $350 million my guess, so he is not likely to spend big money on someone who isn&#039;t a long-term fit and that doesn&#039;t really enhance this year&#039;s and next chances to compete. Chen and Frenchy are examples of guys offering two years of production til Myers and whichever young gun is ready to replace them, nice combination of reasonable price, short horizon, and good production for the money, as well as two guys who want to be here. We could give Reyes $10 mil in three years or we could add that to an offer for a Hoz extension. I know which I would choose.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Probably wouldn&#8217;t break the bank, probably could be better used for other contracts, like extra money to get Zack back or to make an extension with one of the young stars. Right now Alex is negotiating, this time next year Perez might get extended, there will be pressure to make long offers to Moose and Hoz, Billy will be on the table the year after. I assume that GMDM has some fairly fixed sum he can spend over the next five years, $350 million my guess, so he is not likely to spend big money on someone who isn&#8217;t a long-term fit and that doesn&#8217;t really enhance this year&#8217;s and next chances to compete. Chen and Frenchy are examples of guys offering two years of production til Myers and whichever young gun is ready to replace them, nice combination of reasonable price, short horizon, and good production for the money, as well as two guys who want to be here. We could give Reyes $10 mil in three years or we could add that to an offer for a Hoz extension. I know which I would choose.</p>
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		<title>By: Ted</title>
		<link>http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888&#038;cpage=1#comment-12626</link>
		<dc:creator>Ted</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Jan 2012 04:45:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.royalsauthority.com/?p=4888#comment-12626</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Darvish deal looks fairly balanced, but Reyes&#039; contract is heavily backloaded...with current payroll flexibility the Royals must have been in a position to offer a competitive bid based on present value alone.  Maybe Reyes does not fit our team because of Escobar, or maybe he would have been willing to play 2B.  Or maybe Escobar could have taken a back seat or become trade bait.  I don&#039;t know.  This is just one example.  Every year there are backloaded contracts like this...if a guy like Reyes was being paid $10 million three seasons from now would it really break our bank?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Darvish deal looks fairly balanced, but Reyes&#8217; contract is heavily backloaded&#8230;with current payroll flexibility the Royals must have been in a position to offer a competitive bid based on present value alone.  Maybe Reyes does not fit our team because of Escobar, or maybe he would have been willing to play 2B.  Or maybe Escobar could have taken a back seat or become trade bait.  I don&#8217;t know.  This is just one example.  Every year there are backloaded contracts like this&#8230;if a guy like Reyes was being paid $10 million three seasons from now would it really break our bank?</p>
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