Comments on: Broxton on the High Wire

By: DanL

DanL — Fri, 22 Jun 2012 01:46:43 +0000

Nice graph work…
Kind of scary thought that Broxton has been better this year than his history – plus his history was in the NL where you would expect a slightly better ERA (maybe not so much for bullpen guys).

By: John

John — Fri, 22 Jun 2012 00:41:32 +0000

I thought about this a little, wanted to see how he matched up with the correlation between ERA and WHIP: http://twitpic.com/9z2e7v. For 2005-2012 Broxton falls right on the correlation (as do some stand-out closers). This year he is significantly below the correlation. I’m expecting an increase in earned runs, and with the Royals’ love of the one-run victory, an increase in blown saves.

By: Clark Fosler

Clark Fosler — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 17:31:29 +0000

Last year, on his way to a 49 for 49 year in save opps, Valverde allowed more than one baserunner in a save situation just 9 times. This year, in addition to having blown 3 saves already, Papa Grande has allowed multiple baserunners in five of his 13 successful saves.

By: chuckbo

chuckbo — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 17:06:53 +0000

How’s he compare with Valverde the last couple of years? It seems like even when Valverde was on his long run on consecutive saves, he was usually in trouble.

By: Eric

Eric — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 16:47:26 +0000

DanL,

There is now no compensation for losing a free agent unless they are going to be in the top 125 in salary, I think I heard the current value will be about 12.5 million. The team has to offer the player that salary and the player has to decline, in order for the team to get the draft pick.

A player that is likely to be in that pay range will probably have a little more value because of what they’ll bring to the team that trades for them. Players that will make less than that in their new contract could lose value in the eyes of the acquiring team, but I’m not sure how often the new rule will come into play. It could be that teams will disregard that factor and make the trade based upon need and how much the player will help their team, and disregard getting a player in the 30s or 40s in the draft.

By: airgoesit

airgoesit — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 16:44:37 +0000

Zero reason to keep him if given decent value in return, contention or not. He’s the only tangible commodity we have that people (fans) are willing to part with and there are 3-4 guys in the organization that are as good (probably better) and don’t make Broxton’s money combined. More available currency (figuratively and actual) to spend on a real need…bet you can guess what that is!!!
.

By: DanL

DanL — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 16:02:28 +0000

What are the rules this year on compensation for losing a free agent – didn’t it change this year? Will the new rule increase the number of trades this year?

By: Kyle Eschmann

Kyle Eschmann — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 15:58:57 +0000

Unfortunately Broxton will probably be our all-star representative, he’s better than Mark Redman, but he doesn’t a long-term future with the team. More than happy to only be 4.5 back all things considered.

By: Clark Fosler

Clark Fosler — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 15:29:29 +0000

Kyle – you’re right: ‘throw’ (too much time at the bar last night!).

I would be right with you guys that Broxton should/will be moved in July, but you wonder if the Royals are still four or five games out by the All-Star Break if Moore will try to make a run and keep his closer in place (that assumes Broxton continues to survive in that role).

As Craig wrote yesterday, it is a delicate balance between sticking to the plan and making a run and it may or may not be mutually exclusive. It will be interesting what the Royals do trade wise and promotion wise over the next six weeks.

By: Eric

Eric — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 15:24:07 +0000

I saw a White Sox game on WGN in the last month where the Sox announcer said Quiz (although he wouldn’t say his name because he’s deceased) would intentionally let runners on because the save rule was different then.

The comment happened during this game: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHA/CHA201205150.shtml around the time Dotel came into the game.