On the off season list of priorities, signing Alex Gordon to a contract extension was probably at the top. You may even say it was A1 on the list. (Groan… I know.)
With the clock counting down on spring training, the Royals and Gordon finally got the extension done last Friday, announcing a four year deal, valued at $37.5 million. There is a player option for a fifth year. Last Friday, on Twitter, I introduced something called #PositiveFriday. It was an attempt to only Tweet the positive as the Royals were striving toward the finish line of spring training.
Positive Friday, indeed.
Overall, this is another deal that is a win for both sides. It’s a win in that Gordon gets guaranteed cash, and it’s a win that the option for the fifth season is his. It’s a win for the Royals in that they signed one of their top three hitters to a deal that won’t break the bank. Or more importantly, prohibit them from pursuing a long term extension for Eric Hosmer at any point in the next three years.
And it’s a win for Dayton Moore. Since he’s become General Manager, Moore has signed Joakim Soria, Zack Greinke, Billy Butler, Salvador Perez, Alcides Escobar and now Gordon to a long-term deal. Basically, anyone worthy of a deal has signed one. While the ink has yet to dry on the Perez, Escobar and now Gordon deals, each one of these contracts seems to be a good piece of business on the part of the Royals.
(Yes, Soria is going to miss the entire season, but according to FanGraphs, he’s provided $20.3 million in value for the first three years of his contract. That’s while making $8 million. I’m going to assume the team has insurance on Soria and I’m also going to assume his contract is either renegotiated for next year or not picked up at all.)
It’s natural to frame the Gordon extension as how it affects Hosmer. There’s an interesting alignment happening. On one side, you have super agent Scott Boras who rarely signs a long-term deal before testing the free agent market. On the other side, you have Moore, who has yet to allow any of his quality players to test said market. It’s a good, old-fashioned standoff… Who blinks?
It’s funny how all of this works. Two years ago, Gordon was a bust. A first round pick who couldn’t get healthy and who couldn’t catch a break. There were rumblings of how he was completely lost – both as a hitter and a fielder. And there was talk of him needing a “fresh” start. Perhaps a trade to another organization where he wouldn’t be saddled with so much baggage.
Now, he’s the leadoff hitter, Gold Glove outfielder and one of the cornerstones of the franchise. He may not match the offensive or defensive production from his stellar 2011, but if he can stay healthy, you know he will come close.
Sure, his .358 BABIP points to a correction, but it’s one that shouldn’t be too drastic. Anyway, he’s a high strikeout guy (he whiffed in 20% of his at bats last year) with some power. We know those types of players often have an inflated BABIP. Also, his 22% line drive rate shows how well he can square up on the ball. I would bet if he can maintain his line drive rate, his BABIP will be north of .325. That’s good enough for me.
(If you want an example of how he couldn’t catch a break, look at his rates from 2010. He had a 23% line drive rate, but an insanely low .254 BABIP. That was some rotten luck. And it couldn’t help but translate to his overall stat line.)
The only concern I have going forward is the player option for 2016. He’ll be 32 that season, so it naturally carries a bit of a risk for the club.
I had assumed the deal would break down where Gordon would get around $10 million for his final year of salary arbitration, along with $12 million per for each year of free agency. That meant I figured a four year deal would total around $46 million. What I didn’t expect was that the Royals would tear up his current contract, bump his 2012 salary by about $1.25 million and cover just two years of free agency. So while it looks my guesstimate was off, I’m still calling it a win.
Because I can do that.