In the offseason, I did a postmortem on the Royals offense which I broke down by position. I then compared that to how other teams in the AL and within the division did. It was enlightening to see exactly where each teams excelled and failed. It was instructive to see where the Royals and the other AL Central teams should focus their efforts to improve. Since we are a month into the season already, I figured I would take a look at how things look from that perspective in 2010.*
*The statistic I will be using is wOBA, which is explained here. All statistics come from Fangraphs and are up to date as of Tuesday, May 4th.
Here is how the AL Central looks when ranked by wOBA at the catching position. It’s no surprise that the Twins are first with uber talent Mauer. However, what is suprising is the fact that the Royals are ranked second. These numbers are due almost exclusively to Jason Kendall who has caught nearly every inning this season. The Royals catchers are ranked eighth in the American League, which is respectable and frankly much better than I had anticipated.
At this point in the season, the AL Central has some pretty darn good hitting first basemen. The Twins, White Sox and Tigers own the top three spots in the league. Morneau, Cabrera and Konerko are certainly formidable bats for their teams. I should have expected to see where the Royals first baseman aka Billy Butler ended up. He is a good hitter, but compared to his brethren at the position he is roughly average. This is what I found after the 2009 season as well. The Indians combo of Laporta and Brayan hasn’t quite been what their team had hoped so far.
The Twins own yet another category with their free agent acquisition Orlando Hudson. Detroit rookie Scott Sizemore has been holding his own as well. After those guys the numbers fall off a cliff. The Royals like Chris Getz’s defense and he is still developing at the plate (hopefully). Valbuena of the Indians is currently hitting .167, and after a decent rookie season for the White Sox Gordon Beckham currently has an OPS of .599.
The Indians surprisingly lead in three positions, and third base is one of those. Jhonny Peralta may only be hitting .229, but his OBP is .340 and he is slugging .398. The Tigers and Twins third baggers are pretty close to average. The Royals should improve with the solid hitting Callaspo now entrenched at the position. Mark Teahen hasn’t played as well as I had anticipated for the White Sox, I still think that when the weather warms up, he will have more of his hits land for home runs at The Cell.
Another category which is led by the Indians. Asdrubal Cabrera is a solid bat at the lightest hitting position in the field other than catcher. Betancourt started hot, but has fallen off of a cliff offensively. If Aviles can be anywhere near 2008 he is easily the best hitting SS in the division. Hardy, Everett and Ramirez are much better known for their gloves than for their bats on the Twins, Tigers and White Sox respectively.
It looks like the Tigers made a good decision in signing Johnny Damon as they hold the lead in LF, although he has been moved mostly to DH in favor of Brennan Boesch. Austin Kearns is another good free agent signing so far for the Indians. His slash line is .333/.405/.561, I had no idea he was doing so well. As hot as Podsednik was, I figured the Royals would be in a better position than 7th in the AL. Super bust Delmon Young and the Twins left fielders are a tad below league average and the White Sox’s Juan Pierre is still Juan Pierre.
Tigers rookie Austin Jackson has significantly outperformed Curtis Granderson who he was traded for in the offseason. Alex Rios the CF for the White Sox is suddenly looking like he did when he played for the Blue Jays. Ankiel and Maier are below league average, which isn’t surprising. The Twins Span is slightly under performing at this point. What happened to Grady Sizemore? He has been a very good hitter since he entered the league, but in 2009 he hit below his career numbers and in 2010 has an OBP of .286.
Is Shin-Soo Cho0 the most underrated player in the division? What about the entire AL? He is the best hitting RF in the AL this year and from 2008-2010 has an OPS of .904. Oh and he is only 27. Cuddyer has been a very good hitting RF for the Twins. Magglio is getting old, but can still swing the bat. Carlos Quentin hasn’t hit the ball very well, but Andruw Jones has hit when he plays RF, so he boosts the numbers for the White Sox. Surprisingly, the Royals RF shapes up as the worst in the division right now. Part of that is how strong the position is within the division and the other is the fact that RF is where teams like to stash good hitters who are marginal fielders.
The lone category where the Royals lead is DH, and they actually lead the entire AL. This is a far cry from 2009 when the Royals had by far the worst DH crew in the league. Guillen has hit for some pretty good power and has been a welcome surprise. The Twins have used a combination of Kubel and Thome so it isn’t a shocker that the pair rank 2nd in the division. The Tigers have been using Johnny Damon as the DH lately and he has hit pretty well so far. Hafner is only batting .208 for the Indians, and the White Sox can’t figure out who to use as a DH and it is pretty clear why.
More Graphs and Tables
In my look at the 2009 season I utilized a polar graph, which I thought really brought it all together. It is a little unwieldy to look at initially, but it does bring the data out. So basically, what you are seeing is a graphical representation of the tables above. You will notice the positions arrayed outside of the circle. Each colored line represents a team in the AL Central, for example the blue line represents the Royals. Where they are on the circle is a representation of where they rank in the AL in wOBA at that position. The outside edge of the circle is 1st place, the innermost is 14th place. You can see the Royals were 1st at DH.
Clearly, to have a good offense you need a couple of division leading categories, but the real key is not having any particular positions that kill you. Notice that the Twins are not last in any category, and their worst position is a defensive first position in CF. The Tigers are the same with their worst offensive position at catcher. Oddly the 2B position is almost ranked exactly like the division standings, not only in order but in the magnitude. The Twins and Tigers have a dominant position while the Royals, White Sox and Indians all lag near the league basement. Maybe the secret is having a great 2B (I don’t think so, its just a funny coincidence)
Finally, one more table. This is a ranking of every position in the AL Central by wOBA with the Royals highlighted.
It kind of surprised me to see that the lowest Royals wOBA was 14th to last. That is a significant upgrade over 2009. The Royals are much closer to having an average offense when they don’t have complete offensive holes weighing them down.
I don’t know that there is a specific conclusion to draw from all of this. Mostly it was an exercise to see where the offense was coming from within the division and to see if the Royals had improved thus far. Prior to the season, I predicted that the offense would be improved over last season. So far that seems to be the case. I don’t think they will have a great offense, but they seem to have upgraded the major holes they had last season primarily at DH, RF, CF and SS. All four of those positions in 2009 ranked in the bottom seven in the AL Central last season.
Nick hosts a podcast about the Royals at Broken Bat Single, likes orange juice and welcomes feedback via Twitter (@brokenbatsingle) and e-mail (brokenbatsingle [AT] gmail [DOT] com)