Royals Authority

Deconstructing The Process

Browsing Posts tagged Felipe Paulino

In the blink of an eye, the Royals solved another of their roster mysteries yesterday by placing Felipe Paulino on the 15 day disabled list.  With that, Luis Mendoza became the fourth starter and Danny Duffy secured a roster spot and the role of fifth starter.

Paulino, who had been anything but sharp this spring, might be eligible to come off the disable list as early as April 10th.   The way the Royals’ early season schedule flows, he could theoretically return in time to take the fifth starter’s second turn, but it seems unlikely he will return that quickly.

To begin with, Paulino was put on the disabled list with the rather mysterious ‘sore elbow’, which we have seen could be anything from ‘just a little sore and we don’t like how you’re pitching and anyway we really want time to look at these other two guys’ to ‘sorry, you’re having surgery’.   My guess is the Royals really are not sure why Paulino’s elbow is sore and hence have no desire to rush him back.   

The benefit of this hopefully mild injury is that is delays having to send Danny Duffy to AAA or figuring out what to do with the out of options Luis Mendoza (Paulino is also out of options). 

Although he has struggled mightily this spring, Duffy probably has the best stuff on the current rotation and I really want to see if he has figured out how to a) throw more strikes and b) get strike three against major league hitters.   In Mendoza, even us critical, jaded spirits here at Royals Authority are now curious as to what this guy can really do in real major league games that are not played when the leaves are falling off trees.

Listen, as Craig mentioned yesterday, while spring training stats don’t mean much, Mendoza’s are so good that, coupled with his excellent AAA season in what is basically a hitters’ league, the Royals almost have to see what he can do.   I will be curious to see how long the leash is on Mendoza.   Do the Royals really, really believe in him now or, like many of us, do they remain skeptical that Luis has turned himself into a legit major league starter?

xxx

 

The whole Opening Day starter thing is waaaaay overblown. Who really cares? I mean, other than the starter?

There is one thing that kind of bugs me about Chen getting the ball for Opening Day. One would assume it’s a reward handed to the best pitcher on your staff. In the Royals case, there isn’t exactly a stand out starter in the rotation. Fine. All winter the Royals have said there were three locks for the rotation: Hochevar, Chen and Sanchez. Understandable. Those three represent the three pillars of roster building: The high draft pick. The big money free agent.* And the big trade.

Given the pedigrees and the financial commitments, it’s no wonder these three guys were “locks.”

*Please bear with me here. When I say “big money” free agent, it’s relative. Although Chen did represent Dayton Moore’s most aggressive foray into the free agent market since 2008 when he splashed the cash on Kyle Farnsworth. So yes, Chen was a big free agent signing. And yes, that’s sad.

So what bothers me about Chen as the Opening Day starter is the fact he’s been horrible this spring. (At least before his start on Tuesday when he pitched six strong innings before faltering in the seventh.) It’s part of baseball’s caste system I suppose, where a guy like Johnny Giavotella has to battle Chris Getz and Yuniesky Betancourt for a roster spot – and is ultimately demoted for a sub-par spring. Meanwhile, Chen owns an 11.25 ERA in 18 innings where batters are hitting .405 against him and he gets the Opening Day carrot. Ahh… the luxury of being the veteran.

Big picture, it’s not a huge deal. We’ve seen Chen pitch the last two summers and while he’s not overwhelming, he’s at least been adequate. And I really can’t concern myself with spring stats for veteran pitchers. They work on certain things and pitch to prepare for the season. Completely different mindset as opposed to the real games. His command has been fine – just two walks with 12 strikeouts – so I’m not too worried about Chen. He’ll be underwhelming, win a few games and everyone will think he’s awesome.

And is it me, or does the whole “stack the rotation so it goes LHP-RHP-LHP-RHP-??? not really make a huge difference. I suppose there will be series where you throw a pair of lefties against a weaker side of a platoon, or vice-versa, but I just don’t really see how this matters. Really, what difference does a rotation make at all? Ideally, you want your best starters to make the most appearances. So if your each member of your rotation didn’t miss a single start all year, starters one and two would make 33 starts while three through five would toe the slab 32 times. Ho-hum. Certainly, at some point a manager could juggle the rotation to make sure his best two starters gained those extra starts.

And you have to love the people who worry about matching up their number one starter with the other team’s top guy. Because it doesn’t always happen that way.

Quick example: if the A’s decide to use a fifth starter in the first week of the season (anything can happen with the A’s since they’re opening the season Wednesday in Tokyo) that pitcher would match-up against Chen. In his second start of the season.

See what I mean?

It’s understood that Yosty is stacking his rotation so Hochevar gets the home opener against the Indians. That’s cool, I suppose. Personally, I’d much rather pay to see a Hochevar start instead of Chen. At least while I’m still intrigued to see if Hochevar can carry over his second half success from last season.

Somebody has to start Opening Day. Might as well be Chen.

More pressing is the same question we’ve been asking all spring: Who will hold down the fourth and fifth spots of the rotation? The fact the Royals and Dayton Moore obviously crush on Luis Mendoza – not to mentions that the dude is out of options – means he gets one of the two. I’d like to disagree, but damnit, he’s pitched well enough to earn a shot.

My hunch is the fifth spot goes to Felipe Paulino. I will stand by this prediction: Put the guy in the rotation, let him make 30 to 32 starts and at the end of the season he will have been the best starter on the staff. I truly believe that. Like Mendoza, he is out of options. This is a case where the option situation will save the Royals from doing something foolish. Yeah for rules!

So that leaves Danny Duffy as the odd man out. Sucks for Duffy, but I would bet that he goes down to Triple-A, dominates, and is back in the Royals rotation by May. He can take the place of Chen.

The catchers and pitchers (well, all of them with working visas, anyway) have reported to camp in Surprise, Arizona and it won’t be too terribly long now before we have actual baseball games to evaluate and battles for roster spots will move from winter time speculation to spring time results.

While the Royals’ starting rotation is generally considered as one of the weakest units on the team, it is one that is still relatively set heading into spring ball.  Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen and Jonathan Sanchez are all locks to open the season in the rotation, while Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy are heavy favorites to be the fourth and fifth members of the group.

Ah, the fifth starter.  While it is often true that teams open the season with just four starters on their roster due to off-days early April, the Royals will have no such luxury this year.

Beginning with Opening Day in Anaheim versus the Angels on April 6th, Kansas City will play six straight games.   That means that a fifth starter will be needed on April 10th: day five of the season.   Assuming Luke Hochevar is the number one man, he will make his second start of 2012 on April 11th and the Royals will have an off-day on Thursday the 12th.   They then play six more games starting on Friday the 13th (Opening Day at the K).

Should the club choose to utilize off-days to get their top pitchers more starts – something I am not sure should or need to be done given this team lacks a true get-him-on-the-mound-as-much-as-possible guy at the front of the rotation – they could bring Hochevar back in the number five starter’s spot on April 16th.   Even then, however, the fifth starter would be needed the very next day.

Another off-day comes on Thursday, April 19th and provides the team an opportunity to bump the rotation again, bringing back Hochevar AND Chen (or whomever is the number two starter) on normal rest before having to go the fifth starter again.  Still, the respite is temporary as the schedule demans a fifth starter on April 24th.   After that, Kansas City embarks on a string of twenty games in twenty days and the five man rotation will be in full effect.

As we can see, this season’s schedule requires a fifth starter three times in the first 18 days.  Not only will the Royals be required to carry the fifth man from basically day one, but they will have little opportunity to use him in any role but as a starter.   Let’s say Danny Duffy is the fifth starter, he cannot pitch in relief in the first four games of the year, then starts game five and has to come back exactly one week later and then a week after that.   While there is extended rest between all of his starts, the period is not long enough for Ned Yost to comfortably insert Duffy into a game out of the pen in between.

Now, given that Duffy might have a bit of an inning’s limitation this year, having three starts by April 24th as compared to Hochevar’s five makes a lot of sense.    Duffy threw 147 innings between AAA and the Majors in 2011, so conventional baseball wisdom says he maxes out at 175 or so this year.     Chances are, Duffy doesn’t get much beyond that even without skipping starts, but having a couple less in April probably doesn’t hurt.

Of course, if you are talking innings limited guys, the Royals could give the five spot to Aaron Crow.   They could use the three early April starts as an extended look at what he might do as a starter, let Duffy get tuned up in Omaha and make a real decision about who they want to go with in late April.   Should he succeed as a starter, Crow will be under a real innings crunch, so any starts saved will be useful.

The third legitimate contender for this spot is the out of options Luis Mendoza.  It is hard to ignore what he did in the hit happy PCL last year, but equally hard to forget how truly, truly awful he was in the majors the year before.   Still, a good spring by Mendoza might intrigue the Royals enough (not to mention that both Dayton Moore and Ned Yost have expressed a fear of losing Luis without seeing what they’ve got) to go with him in the five spot. 

I am a huge advocate of Danny Duffy continuing his development in the major leagues.  I am not sure that the problems Danny encountered as a rookie can get solved by doing anything but pitching to major league hitters.   That said, a couple of tune-up starts in Omaha to start the year while the Royals figure out where they are going in early April would do little harm.  

It will be interesting to see how Kansas City handles the rotation battle this spring, but you now know one thing:  they will need a fifth starter immediately.    The luxury of saving the roster spot decision for later in April is not one the Royals enjoy this year.

xxx

I have always found it odd that there is such a division between ‘statistical minds’ and ‘baseball minds’ in the modern game.   No game has so faithfully tracked statistics for longer than baseball.   In fact, I don’t think it would be possible to develop a team sport that lends itself more easily to record keeping and statistical innovation than baseball.

Yet, here we are in 2012 where you seemingly either ‘a nerd’ or a ‘baseball man’.  For those of you who believe you simply must be one or the other or have uttered the phrase ‘I don’t care what your numbers say, I know what I see’ or used this beauty in an argument ‘You are seeing what you want to, the numbers don’t lie’, may I present Felipe Paulino.

While many of us have jabbed the Royals about their apparent disdain for modern statistics, the acquisition of Paulino early last season is an example that, at least once in a while, they do listen to the ‘nerds in the corner’.   Sure, Jin Wong did not print off Paulino’s page on Fangraphs, slap it down on Dayton Moore’s desk and see Moore immediately pick up the phone to acquire Felipe, but it did get the big right hander on the Royals’ radar.

The Rockies designated Paulino for assignment on May 22nd and the Royals acquired him for cash (and not very much of it) on May 27th.   They were getting a pitcher who had fashioned a 7.36 earned run average in 14 innings of bullpen work for Colorado.   Prior to going to Colorado, Paulino had gone 1-9 with a 5.11 ERA for Houston in 2010 and 3-11 with a 6.27 ERA in 2009.  Frankly, the back of Felipe Paulino’s baseball card is hideous.

What the Royals’ saw, however, was a pitcher whose strikeout rate was consistently near one per inning (career 8.3/9) and one who had the ability to limit the home run ball when working as a starter (0.8/9).    Felipe’s fastball velocity had remained consistently at 95 mph through good and bad and despite unsightly traditional numbers, Paulino had posted xFIPs of 4.04 and 4.36 in 2009 and 2010.  The numbers said that Felipe Paulino should be better than he was.

Immediately, Paulino was better. 

He came out of the bullpen in his first Royals’ appearance, throwing 4.1 shutout innings against Texas.  Five days later, Paulino started against the Angels and threw five more shutout innings, striking out four and walking no one.

From that point on, Felipe made 19 starts for Kansas City.  He threw six innings or more in 13 of those starts and only once did Paulino not finish the fifth inning.   Twelve times, he allowed three earned runs or less.    As a starter for Kansas City, Paulino struck out 8.7 batters per nine innings and posted a strikeout to wal ratio of 2.42.   His xFIP was a solid 3.73 and Paulino posted an fWAR of 2.6:  tying for the team lead among Royals hurlers last season.

Paulino is predominately a fastball/slider pitcher who mixes in a changeup and a curve.   As a Royal, he used his change more often (10% of the time) and the curve less.  Simply put, Felipe Paulino is a power righthander who regularly threw 100+ pitches per start and generally held his stuff through the game.    At 6’2″ and 270 pounds, there might be some room for improved conditioning (and he did miss one start with some back issues), but one does not want to mess too much with a guy who throws 95 mph as a starter and does so for six innings.

Going into 2012, Paulino is not considered a lock for the starting rotation, but I have to believe he is close.  One wonders if the Royals wanted to ensure that Paulino was not ‘too comfortable’ with his 2011 campaign during the off-season and hence have not assured him a spot on the roster.  Past history suggests that Paulino simply does not take well to a relief role, but it also shows us that he might well become a solid number three/four starter.

Felipe Paulino, whose acquisition was a perfect marriage of sabremetrics and scouting, was a great find for the Royals last season.  The 28 year old was a perfect stopgap in a year when the organization’s pitching prospects marked time.  He is likely to be Kansas City’s number four starter in April and, as a guy you hand the ball to and pretty much know will give you six innings and keep you in the game, it is not unreasonable to see him as a number four starter on future contending teams.

xxx

 

We’re getting closer to firing up the hot stove, so this seems to be a great time to look at the Royals contract obligations for the upcoming season.

Guaranteed Money
Billy Butler – $8 million
Jeff Francoeur – $6.75 million
Aaron Crow – $1.1 million

The Butler contract hits the second year arbitration escalator. And if that number seems hefty for a player with that kind of service time, remember he signed for less that he submitted to the Royals prior to the arbitration process last year. According to FanGraphs, Butler’s production was worth $8.1 million. And that was probably the least productive year of his last three. Still a good piece of business by GMDM, I say. Even if he clogs the bases. That number does not include what is thought to be a pro-rated signing bonus of $500k.

The Frenchy money is an estimate based on his two-year, $13.5 million extension.

The Crow deal is a leftover from his major league deal signed after the 2009 draft.

Options
Joakim Soria – $6 million ($750k buyout)

No-brainer. The option would have escalated to $6.5 million if he had become a starter. But he didn’t.

First Year Arbitration Eligible
Mitch Maier – $459k
Chris Getz – $443k
Aaron Laffey – $432k

Laffey, as I wrote earlier, is insurance. The deadline to offer contracts for the 2012 season is December 12. If GMDM isn’t able to bring in a couple of bullpen arms by then, Laffey will get tendered a contract. Simple as that. He could be gone before then if the Royals are super aggressive and need the room on the 40-man roster.

Maier would probably get around $650k, I imagine. That’s not too much for a fourth outfielder. Do the Royals want to dip into the prospect pool for the fourth guy? I don’t think so. They know what they have in Maier… A guy who shows up, works hard and doesn’t complain. (And when they’re short an arm, he can pitch!) If they’re really looking to save a few bucks, the could bring up David Lough. Clearly, they don’t think of him as anything more than a fourth outfielder at this point. I’d rather they spend a few hundred thousand more and keep Our Mitch around for another season.

And you know my opinion on Getz. There’s no reason for him to be tendered a contract. He’s a utility player without utility. The Royals picked up their 2012 utility guy when they grabbed Yamaico Navarro from the Red Sox. He may play with less GRIT, but he can play more positions.

Second Year Arbitration Eligible
Brayan Pena – $660k
Felipe Paulino – $790k
Luke Hochevar – $1.76 million

Pena is an interesting case. He stands to make around $800k next year, but has confirmed that he can’t play defense and the lone reason for him to be kept around – his OPB ability – has vanished. Manny Pina would be an adequate backup and the Royals have gone on the record saying they don’t think they need to have a veteran catcher on the roster. Besides, with new bench coach Chino Cadahia in the fold, there’s the catching experience right there. I don’t think Pena will be tendered a contract.

Paulino and Hochevar are no-doubters. MLB Trade Rumors has Paulino doubling his salary to around $1.6 million. Given he proved to be a durable and decent starter for the Royals, I can’t argue with that. Hochevar will get a nice raise as well. Somewhere in the neighborhood of $4 million.

Third Year Arbitration Eligible
Alex Gordon – $1.4 million

This is where the Royals are going to have to reach for their pocketbooks. Gordon was worth $31 million on the open market based on his 2011 production. Obviously, he’s not going to get that kind of coin, but it just gives you some perspective at how good he was for the Royals last year. Domination.

Gordon lacks a solid track record and that’s kept his salary depressed as he enters his third go around on the arbitration wheel. It will continue to hurt him here, as he stands to get a raise somewhere around $5 million. That’s assuming the Royals don’t do the right thing and extend him.

Fourth Year Arbitration Eligible
Melky Cabrera – $1.25 million

Cast off from the Braves last year, the Melk-Man took a hefty pay cut to play for the Royals. He made $3.1 million in 2010. Look for him to bounce to the $4 million range.

Free Agents
Bruce Chen
Jeff Francis
Jason Kendall

Sigh… Another Kendall sighting. Last one. Promise.

Chen projects to be a Type B free agent which means the Royals could be in line for some compensation if they offer him arbitration. Last winter, Chen shopped for a two-year deal, but returned to the Royals when it was obvious he couldn’t find a taker. He’ll be looking for something similar this time around. And again, I think he will have some problem finding what he’s looking for. He’s proven himself, but as Ozzie Guillen so eloquently put it, it’s “Bruce F’n Chen.”

I think the Royals will offer Chen arbitration. At least, they should. If he accepts, the Royals have a serviceable starter for around $3.5 million. If he declines, they get a supplemental. Win-win.

Assuming Getz and Pena are non-tendered, and assuming Laffey sticks and Chen departs as a free agent, the Royals are somewhere in the range of $38 million for their guaranteed and arbitration contracts. Add another $7 million for the remaining 15 players filling out the roster (assuming each of the remaining players have less than three years of service time), and you have a current projected payroll of close to $45 million. Probably a little more because they will certainly have a couple of guys on the 25 man roster that aren’t currently in the picture.

Of course, this is all extremely preliminary. Trades will be made. It’s possible a free agent may be lured to KC. What this represents is a snapshot in time of where the Royals are with their payroll. I’ll revisit this from time to time this winter. It will be interesting to see how the off season payroll evolves.

I have a hunch it was a pretty busy weekend for all of us.  College football was in full swing, the NFL started up and it was just about perfect weather just about everywhere in the Midwest.   On a far more important note, it was the 10th anniversary of 9/11, which took up at least a few hours of most everyone’s weekend.

Along the way, the Royals were still playing baseball:  rallying from an 0-2 start against Seattle to win the final two games of the series.   A split with a team sporting a virtually identical poor record is not exactly front page news, particularly on a weekend like this past one.

It’s that time of year, folks.   The time when local sports radio might give you twenty minutes of Royals’ talk per show, if you’re lucky.   When the only baseball highlights (unless you can tolerate the ridiculous ‘look at how lively and funny we are’ Baseball Tonight show) revolve around teams that, you know, are still playing for something.    Short of Alcides Escobar catching a grounder in his hat and then drop kicking it to Eric Hosmer for the out, you won’t see a Royals’ highlight on any national media outlet until sometime next year.   Heck, you might not see many on any of the Kansas City stations!

I will have to admit that I paid minimal attention to the Seattle series myself.   We had a huge airshow up here in Lincoln (Blue Angels, baby!), the Huskers played at night, the deck had to be stained and Mom gave me an extra half hour each night before having to return to the basement.   All that said, the Royals did do some good things over the weekend:

  • Felipe Paulino struck out 11 batters over seven innings of work, allowing just two hits.   So much for concerns about his back.
  • My new prospect to hype, Everett Teaford, stepped up Sunday and threw five shutout innings in his first major league start.   Of course, Teaford was facing the Mariners who don’t sport a whole lot of anything offensively after Ichiro and Dustin Ackley, but it was a positive performance nonetheless.
  • By the time the dust settled Sunday, Alex Gordon was leading the AL in doubles with 45.  The last double on Sunday was his 70th extra base hit of the year.  For those of you new to the game, 70 freaking extra base hits is a lot.  When Gordon was a rookie, what were your expectations?  Something like .300/.400/.500 as a slash line?   Well, Alex stands at .299/.371/.500 right now.
  • Eric Hosmer hit home run number 17 in Seattle.   Get your prediction in now:  how many home runs will Hosmer hit in 2012?  I am setting the over/under at 29.
  • With a little luck, the Royals could end the season with four players who each have 40 or more doubles and 20 or more home runs.   While the offense has been somewhat spastic this year, it really is not the problem (which pretty much everyone knew already).
  • Neither has the bullpen.   After a bit of ‘rookie hitting the wall-itis’ the past few weeks, the Royals’ pen threw 12 innings in the Seattle series, allowing just 3 runs and 2 walks while striking out 22 batters.   They are not the problem, either, and are likely to be even better in 2012.
  • The problem, of course, is the starting rotation.  Again, we already knew that and in the coming months you can count on this writer coming up with six thousand and seven scenarios to make the rotation better.   I believe it is quite likely you will disagree with all of them.

I will leave you with one question for the day:  is the 2012 Opening Day starter on the current 40 man roster?

 

  • Bubba Starling signed last night for $7.5m. It’s  ridiculous that the Commissioners office won’t let over-slot deals through until the last moment. As one of my friends put it “That’s a lot of cheddar for an 18 year old.”  Yep. I hope he’s worth it. At first, I wasn’t completely thrilled with the pick, but as I learned more I’m fully supportive of it. I like the high-risk, high-reward thought process. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
  • Johnny Giavotella has four extra-base hits in 44 plate appearances, Chris Getz had 8 in 396. Why wasn’t this move made sooner?
  • Jim Thome hit his 600th home-run last night. While it seems like he’s hit about 550 of them against the Royals, the actual numbers surprised me. Here are the teams Thome has hit the most home runs against.

1. Detroit Tigers (65)

2. Minnesota Twins (57)

3. Kansas City Roayls (48)

4. Chicago White Sox (43)

5. Boston Red Sox (35)

  • You know what’s really frustrating? The fact that the Royals have scored more runs per game and given up fewer runs per game than the Minnesota Twins, yet they are still below them in the standings.  I can’t believe for one second that the Twins are better than the Royals. This is a mirage at the moment, and I think the Royals have a great shot at surpassing them before the end of the season.
  • One problem is that the Royals lead the American League in walks allowed. They’ve given up 432 walks this season. Compare that to league leader Cleveland who has given up only 309. I wouldn’t make a one-to-one relation on walks allowed to wins, but there certainly is some relation. You can’t give out free passes, it’s the worst thing you can do as a pitching staff.
  • Now that a good portion of the future is occupying spots on the Major League roster, guys in the Minors have been kind of over-looked. Wil Myers is likely the top position player in the Royals system, so how’s he doing?  His current slash line is .251/.350/.368. It’s nothing to go crazy over, but it’s good to see him have a high on-base percentage. Myers has an advanced approach and he has no problems taking a walk. I saw him walk at least four times in back-fields spring training games. He’s continuing to do that at AA, however I’d like to see a higher slugging percentage. If he’s laying off pitches until he gets a good one, I’d like to see him drive it out of the park.  Either way, I’m not concerned. The kid is still very young and very good.
  • The top pitching prospect in the minors is Jake Odorizzi, who has made 8 starts at AA after being promoted. He’s had an up-and-down go of it for the Naturals, but he’s still showing flashes of talent. The jump to AA is the second hardest in the game next to the jump to the Majors. It’s not unusual for a guy to have some struggles as he learns to pitch to a much higher level of competition. In his 8 starts, he has posted a 4.57 ERA while striking out 32 and walking 17.
  • Felipe Paulina pitched his worst game as a Royal last night against the New York Yankes, but he still holds a 3.76 ERA in blue. I hear lots of chatter about the Royals not trying to get starting pitching, yet they made one of the best starting pitcher acquisitions in baseball this season.
  • I wanted to mention the podcast hiatus I’ve been on recently. Basically, my life has been super-duper crazy lately and I just flat haven’t had time to do one. It pains me to not do them, but with all of my other responsibilities, it’s taken a back-seat. I’d like to find a way to do them more often, but for now it’s not feasible. They’re will be more, I promise.

 


Nick Scott hosts the Broken Bat Single Podcast and writes a blog for the Lawrence Journal World. You can follow him on Facebook or email him at brokenbatsingle at gmail dot com.

There were a couple of solid nuggets in yesterday’s Bob Dutton article on the state of the Royals post-trade deadline. The one that really jumped out was that Dayton Moore said the organization’s goal was to get Johnny Giavotella between 100 and 150 at bats by the end of the season. That’s all well and good, but it should hardly satisfy the Free Gio crowd, because what GMDM is saying is that we can’t expect him before September. Sigh.

Why don’t the Royals just put Chris Getz out of our misery and make the call for Gio? The dude is hitting .342/.394/.485. He’s done his part, now it’s the Royals turn to do theirs. Plus, as Dutton explained, Gio would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this December, so the Royals will have to place him on the 40 man roster at some point. The current roster has 39 players, so why not make the move sooner rather than later? Why not get Gio 250 at bats instead of 100? Hell, removing Getz from the lineup is addition by subtraction, so just sending him to his rightful spot on the bench makes the Royals a stronger team. Getz has shown he’s not part of the future, so every time he steps to the plate between now and the end of the season is a wasted at bat.

Free Gio!

– I also really enjoyed GMDM’s paranoia regarding Luis Mendoza.

“We’ve got to find out… I don’t want another Philip Humber situation.”

Seriously? The Royals weren’t the first club to give up on Humber, who has seemingly rediscovered himself in Chicago. But he had a rough July, and I would bet he stumbles to the finish line. Why is Dayton letting this guy haunt him? Really, he should be bothered by JP Howell or Leo Nunez just to name two before he’s troubled by giving up on Humber. Besides, he picked Felipe Paulino off the scrap heap earlier in the season and he’s turned out to be the ace of the staff. (Ace being a relative term here.) As a GM, you’ll win some and you’ll lose some. It happens. If GMDM should be troubled by anything, it should be the fact he’s kept Kyle Davies year after year when he’s shown he has zero business being in a major league rotation.

Mendoza is supposedly doing well for the Storm Chasers, with a 2.37 ERA. However, he’s accomplished this with 43 walks and 58 strikeouts in 110 innings. Plus, his FIP in Omaha is 3.93, suggesting a high level of overachievement. It seems to me GMDM is trying to justify keeping Mendoza on the 40 man, when he will end up blocking a young player who really could contribute.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say Mendoza is not Humber 2.0.

GMDM somehow makes putting together a competent 40 man roster damn near impossible.

– Speaking of Davies, our man has landed on the DL for the second time this season with shoulder discomfort. The last time he was sidelined, it was for about six weeks.

I’m sure this injury just kills his trade value.

– Old news by now, but the Royals were allowed to unveil the 2012 All-Star Game logo prior to the start of Tuesday’s game.

I have to say, that’s a really sharp logo. Crisp, clean and to the point. The crown has always been the focal point when you’re at the stadium, so it makes perfect sense for it to be the focal point here. It would have made sense for fountains to be included somewhere, but if they did that, the logo would have become cluttered. Good decision to leave the fountains out.

Also, I really like where it’s displayed in the stadium, on the exterior of the Hall of Fame in left field. I’ve never been shy about expressing my dislike for some of the renovations at the K (the interior of the Hall is outstanding… the exterior, not so much) but they got this one right. It’s going to look great out there over the next year.

It’s a great start to what should shape up as a year long celebration.

On to the pitchers…

We know the starters have, taken as a whole, been horrible. And we know the bullpen has been one of the strengths of this team. I don’t know how the rotation can improved in the second half. Aside from Danny Duffy, these guys pretty much are who we thought they were. Which is not good.

The bullpen, on the other hand, has overachieved. Many of the relievers have outperformed their xFIP and have incredible batting averages on balls in play and even more incredible strand rates. That points to the volatility of the bullpen. It’s still a strength of this team, but I’m not certain it will be as strong in the second half.

One area where you notice the chasm is in strikeouts. The Royals starters couldn’t pitch their way out of a paper bag. (When I talk about the “starters,” know that I’m excluding Duffy. He’s the Chosen One adrift in a sea of batting practice pitchers.) Meanwhile, the bullpen is full of flame throwers who have made missing bats a habit. There may be some regression to the bullpen mean in the second half, but the strikeouts will cushion the blow.

Luke Hochevar
2.9 BB/9, 4.6 SO/9, 5.46 ERA, 4.22 xFIP
0.6 WAR

Key Stat: Allowing opponents to hit .300/.379/.461 with runners on base.

I don’t know if it’s fair to call Hochevar “frustrating.” That would imply we have expectations that he could actually be… good.

Instead, we’re teased with a pitcher who retires three or six or nine batters in a row and then implodes in a spectacular fashion. Read that key stat again… there’s something happening when Hochevar pitches from the stretch. Even more frustrating, when runners reach base, Hochevar slows to the game to a speed that resembles Billy Butler running the 100 yard dash… Stand. Still.

I read somewhere that the KC Star’s Sam Mellinger thought Hochevar is a victim of heightened expectations that come with being the team’s Opening Day (read, number one) starter. I just can’t buy into this theory. Mainly because I haven’t thought about Hochevar as the Opening Day starter since… Opening Day. I mean, even Hochevar has to know he was the “number one” starter only because there wasn’t anyone else.

Grade: D

Jeff Francis
1.7 BB/9, 4.4 SO/9, 4.60 ERA, 4.01 xFIP
1.8 WAR

Key Stat: His average fastball is 85 mph.

Francis was always one of the softer throwers in the game, but he’s lost a couple mph off his alleged fastball since returning from shoulder surgery. Having said that, he’s compensating by featuring the best control of his career. The issue with Francis – and it will always be an issue – is that when he catches too much of the plate, it’s easy for opposing batters to make solid contact. His line drive rate hovers around 20% and his BABIP is always north of .300, meaning his WHIP will always be elevated, even though his walks are under control.

Despite the warts, he’s having a pretty decent season.

Grade: B-

Bruce Chen
3.0 BB/9, 5.6 SO/9, 3.26 ERA, 4.37 xFIP
0.7 WAR

Key Stat: Chen has a 76.5% strand rate.

If you’re looking for a reason for Chen’s solid ERA, look no further than his strand rate. It’s about three percentage points better than his career rate. If he regresses to the mean, the second half could be a bit bumpy, but given the way he’s turned his career around, I’m not certain I would bet against him.

Bringing Chen back for 2011 was a good piece of business by Dayton Moore.

Grade: B

Kyle Davies
4.0 BB/9, 6.3 SO/9, 7.74 ERA, 4.78 xFIP
0.2 WAR

Key Stat: Has thrown three quality starts in 11 overall starts. The Royals have lost all three of those games.

Dreadful.

Grade: F

Sean O’Sullivan
4.4 BB/9, 3.0 SO/9, 6.92 ERA, 5.59 xFIP
-0.5 WAR

Key Stat: His 0.69 SO/BB ratio is the worst rate among pitchers who have started more than five games this season.

Double dreadful.

Grade: F

Danny Duffy
4.3 BB/9, 7.3 SO/9, 4.85 ERA, 4.20 xFIP
0.0 WAR

Key Stat:

Duffy is just a few adjustments away from moving to the front of the rotation. Really. It all comes down to location and an economy of pitches. These are things he can adjust. The successes have been there… there will be more in the near future.

Grade: C

Aaron Crow
4.2 BB/9, 9.1 SO/9, 2.08 ERA, 3.15 xFIP
0.5 WAR

Your 2011 All-Star!

There’s going to be a ton of talk over the next couple of months about moving Crow into the rotation. Personally, I’m on the record saying that everyone from the bullpen should be given a shot at starting. Seriously, the rotation is dreadful so something needs to be done.

Now, having said that, I don’t think that Crow will ever transition back to the rotation. Part of my reasoning has to do with his performance this season. He’s walking too many guys to be a middle of the rotation starter. Also, his success this year is built around an unsustainable 90% strand rate. Then, there’s also his track record from the minors. Don’t forget, he was demoted as a starter after getting raked to the tune of a 5.66 ERA in Double-A. He followed that with a 5.93 ERA in Single-A. Yikes.

Crow seems to have found his groove as a reliever and has emerged as a dependable set-up man. Why mess with a formula that’s been successful?

Grade: A-

Tim Collins
6.6 BB/9, 7.7 SO/9, 3.74 ERA, 4.86 xFIP
-0.1 WAR

Key Stat: Lefties are hitting .215/.381/.354 against Collins. Right handers are batting .193/.316/.301.

Collins is an enigma in more ways than one. To start, there’s his reverse split described above. Then, there’s the fact he’s walking a metric ton of batters. No pitcher who has thrown more than 30 innings has a walk rate higher than Collins.

Sadly, those walks are going to catch up with Collins. And that’s probably going to happen in the second half.

Grade: C+

Blake Wood
2.7 BB/9, 8.0 SO/9, 2.89 ERA, 3.08 xFIP
0.4 WAR

Key Stat: Wood is getting a swinging strike in 9.8% of all strikes thrown.

I don’t know how he’s doing it… With a fastball straighter than a piece of dried spaghetti. But Wood has become a dependable reliever out of the bullpen. It helps that his slider is much improved as well. Still, I can’t help but worry… I’m a Royals fan.

Grade: B+

Louis Coleman
4.3 BB/9, 10.9 SO/9, 2.01 ERA, 3.80 xFIP
0.0 WAR

Key Stat: Opponents are hitting .167/.280/.361 against Coleman.

Coleman is off to a great start and has been a versatile arm out of the pen for the club. He’s pitched multiple innings in 12 of his 27 appearances and has thrown anywhere from the sixth inning on. With the lead, in a tie game, or with the Royals down… Yost is using him in just about any situation.

His BABIP is .200 and his strand rate is a whopping 96%. There’s no way he can keep those numbers for the second half. His xFIP suggests he’s had luck on his side.

Grade: A-

Felipe Paulino
2.3 BB/9, 8.9 SO/9, 3.38 ERA, 3.24 xFIP
1.3 WAR

A revelation…

Interesting story… At the Baseball Prospectus event at the K last week, Jin Wong talked about how one of the things his job entails is to identify potential talent. Basically, looking at fringe players and deciding if there’s some upside there. If there is, and that player becomes available, they pounce. According to Wong, the club identified Paulino early in the year as a potential guy for them because he throws 95 mph (on average), strikes out a fair number of hitters and can keep the ball on the ground. So, when Paulino struggled in 18 appearances out of the pen for the Rockies, and they let him go, the Royals were ready.

Great story… You hope it’s true. Paulino has never had an ERA lower – or even close – to his xFIP, so he was always a guy with upside. Good for the Royals for grabbing him off the scrap heap when the Rockies were ready to let him go.

The Royals will need to find a few more gems in the rough like Paulino. Capable middle of the rotation guy.

Grade: B+

Nate Adcock
3.7 BB/9, 5.9 SO/9, 4.91 ERA, 4.11 xFIP
-0.1 WAR

Key Stat: Only 2 of 12 inherited runners have scored against Adcock.

Adcock was the Rule 5 pick and the Royals have been treating him with kid gloves. He completely disappears for extended stretches. Like right now… He last pitched on July 1.

I’d like for the Royals to use him a little more frequently, especially when their starters spit the bit in the early innings. Adcock isn’t doing exceptional, but when you consider he had never pitched above A-ball prior to this year, the Royals have to be pleased with the results.

Grade: C

Greg Holland
2.2 BB/9, 10.8 SO/9, 1.08 ERA, 2.35 xFIP
0.8 WAR

Key Stat: Only 60% of all plate appearances against Holland end with the ball in play.

Many felt Holland should have been in the bullpen at the start of the season. Many were correct. He’s been lights out. Like Crow and Coleman, his strand rate is north of 90%.

Easily, the best reliever in the Royals pen.

Grade: A

Vin Mazzaro
5.5 BB/9, 3.3 SO/9, 9.25 ERA, 5.97 xFIP
-0.1 WAR

Key Stat: The Royals sacrificial lamb.

It is the seminal moment of the 2011 season… Ned Yost leaving Mazzaro to get his brains beat in by the Indians, allowing 14 runs in 2.1 innings.

Grade: F

Jeremy Jeffress
6.5 BB/9, 7.6 SO/9, 4.70 ERA, 4.40 xFIP
0.0 WAR

Key Stat: A 1.50 WHIP in 15 innings of work.

Jeffress has the potential, but until he finds his control, it will remain potential. It’s not going so well in Omaha as he’s walking 6.6 per nine.

Grade: D+

Everett Teaford
3.4 BB/9, 4.0 SO/9, 2.30 ERA, 4.56 xFIP
-0.2 WAR

Key Stat: Has a 100% strand rate.

Teaford is pitching out of his mind. A .195 BABIP and that strand rate… That’s why his xFIP is over two runs higher than his ERA.

Grade: B

Joakim Soria
2.8 BB/9, 7.8 SO/9, 4.03 ERA, 3.57 xFIP
0.2 WAR

I maintained all along that Soria would be OK… It took a “demotion” for him to find his closer mojo. That, and losing one of his cut fastballs.

Whatever, it was an ugly start. Can’t deny that. He’s already matched his career high for home runs allowed (five) and is still down about two whiffs per inning on his strikeout rate. This serves as a cautionary tale that you should never, ever overvalue your closer. Unless his name is Mariano Riveria. Had the Royals dealt Soria last winter, his value would have been at it’s maximum. According to reports, the GMDM is still asking for everything under the sun when teams call inquiring about Soria.

Hopefully, he can pitch lights out in the second half and restore some of that trade value.

Grade: C

Over the break, Dayton Moore made the proclamation that the Royals were still in the race for the AL Central. I had no idea he was an outpatient at the Menninger Clinic. The bats are in decent shape and the bullpen is strong, but the starting pitching will continue to drag this team to what will be a top three pick in next year’s draft.

Getting swept…

Getting swept at home…

Getting swept at home by a National League team…

Yep, this week has pretty much been one for the dumpster.

If you’re looking for a silver lining in last night’s game, I guess we could find one in the fact that Felipe Paulino somehow pitched into the ninth inning. Kind of surprising, given he’d thrown 108 pitches through eight. To me, that move seems rather Hillman-esque, but I feel we can cut Nervous Ned some slack because this is Paulino we’re talking about. It’s not like the Royals are grinding a $12 million starter to the ground. It’s the little things.

The most notable thing that’s come from this series is the lineup shake-up. For the second consecutive game, Melky Cabrera led off, followed by Eric Hosmer. Funny… You can juggle the lineup all you want, but you still can’t prevent regression to the mean. That’s exactly what’s happening with guys like Jeff Francoeur who has expanded his strike zone to include a four state area. Then, there’s the learning process that’s ongoing with Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. That was evident in the ninth inning on Wednesday, when Hosmer was first pitch swinging with two out and the tying run on base in the ninth.

What it boils down to is unless Bud Selig turns his head to the advances made in genetic cloning, the Royals still have just two hitters in this lineup that can be counted upon to produce: Billy Butler and Alex Gordon. That’s it. The rest of the guys can run hot and extremely cold.

This will change over time. It’s all about The Process. Soon, we can include Hosmer and Moustakis in this group. Throw in a few arms and we may be in business.

For now though, we’re in familiar territory. The Royals are staring the second consecutive month where they’re playing under .400 ball firmly in the face. After averaging 5.1 runs per game the first month of the season, they’re plating just four runs per contest since. That one run makes all the difference in the world, especially with our starting rotation.

Again, it’s not about lineups. It’s not about Bruce Chen. (That was probably the funniest thing I heard all week when Nervous Ned tried to pin the Royals May and June swoon on the absence of Chen due to injury. Hilarious. Maybe if he was Albert Pujols. Stay calm, Ned.) And it’s not about the young players.

Right now, this team just isn’t built to win games.

Unfortunately, this leaves us in an all too familiar position… Worst record in the American League by two games and the third worst record in all of baseball.

Welcome home.