This was written before the Royals went homer crazy against the Tigers on Tuesday night and bumped their winning percentage a shade above .400.

Another day, another excuse from the lovable Kansas City Royals.

This is the latest gem from Trey Hillman.

“I don’t think all of the factors have been evaluated fairly. It all goes back to what we all get judged on — wins and losses — because that’s what counts in our world and in our culture of immediate satisfaction and what have you done for me today. There’s a lot that goes into (evaluating an organization).”

He’s just following the organizational talking points.  Here’s Dayton Moore last week:

“In our immediate-gratification society, everybody wants to point fingers. But from what I’ve seen from everything that goes on in this organization, Trey Hillman’s leadership is one of the strengths of our organization.”

Apparently, the Royals have now moved on and are now blaming society for their problems this year.  That means MTV, video games, fast food and anything else that is the root cause of short attention spans and instant gratification is to blame.  That’s because we want to use wins and losses as a measuring stick of progress.  How silly we must be to think like that.  Of course, it’s not all our fault.  Society is really to blame.

Unreal.

(Do you know who doesn’t measure success by wins and losses?  First grade soccer players.  They don’t keep score at all.  Maybe Dayton Moore would be happy if we could just get him some orange slices.)

Personally, I think the Royals collective front office perception of the fan is extremely detached from reality.  I could be completely wrong about this, but I get the feeling all we want to see is improvement.  We want to see a better product on the field from year to year.  And we do use wins and losses as the main tool to evaluate performance.  Why?  Because it’s what the game is all about.

This was something I’ve wondered about at times over the last couple of seasons… How do we measure progress?  We hit some intense lows in this decade.  We all know about the one time this team finished over .500.  There have also been five seasons where the Royals have posted a sub .400 winning percentage.  That’s counting the current season where the Royals are currently at .399 and on pace for 97 losses.

Anyway, since Dayton Moore rode in on his white horse from Atlanta to rescue us, the team has shown improvement.  Of course, that’s if you just look at the wins and the losses.  Since bottoming out in 2005 and prior to 2009, the Royals increased their winning percentage for three straight years.  And Moore has been the General Manager of the Royals for two and a half of those seasons.

Rarely, does a plan go smoothly.  There will be bumps and detours along the way.  I thought this was especially true regarding the Royals.  They had such a long way to go… Not every team can pull a Detroit where they lose 119 games and play in the World Series in a span of two years time.  That’s not the norm, and I think the majority of baseball fans realize this.  With the Royals resources and the state of the organization back in 2005, it was always going to be a long haul back to respectability.  A process, if you will.

I thought this was going to be one of those “bump” years.  Just looking at the assembled team, it was obvious the Royals were going to have a difficult time improving on last year’s .463 winning percentage.  However, I thought they would at least come close.  I was thinking they’d end up somewhere around .450, which would have put them roughly three wins worse than last season.  I think that qualifies as a “bump.”

However, what’s happened this year has been a total and complete disaster.

I know Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman don’t want to be judged on wins and losses.  Of course, they only say that because there aren’t enough wins and far too many losses.  Sorry, but that’s a load of crap.

Hillman insists this is an improved team.  How can he say that with a straight face?  Oh… He doesn’t want us to use wins and losses.  Fine.

Of course, wins and losses are derived from the number of runs your team scores measured against the number your team allows.  Here’s how the Royals have done scoring and preventing runs over the last four years.

Notice the trend from 2007 (Dayton’s first full year as GM.)  The pitchers showed a great deal of improvement that year, but have been giving up ground ever since.  The hitters have never been very good, but they are scoring fewer runs this year than any season since 1986.  Reread that previous sentence.  The Royals in 2009 are scoring less runs than any year since 1986.  Wow.

Runs scored is directly related to getting on base and hitting for power.  (Yes, Moore likes to talk about speed.  Sigh.  To paraphrase a former coach, “Willie Wilson isn’t walking through that door.”)  Let’s see how the Royals stack up in those departments.

Slugging has gone up, no doubt thanks to Billy Butler crushing doubles.  Bam Bam is, of course, the lone offensive bright spot on this team. Miguel Olivo on Tuesday became the first Royal since 2005 to hit 20 home runs and Mike Jacobs could get hot and reach that mark as well.  However, both players ultimately do more harm with their inability to get on base than good with their modest power.

And how frightening is it that the best offensive Royals team of the last five years was the 2006 version?

Onto the pitching.  A couple of my favorite stats to use to evaluate a pitcher are WHIP and SO/BB ratio.  WHIP is a stat that gained traction in fantasy baseball and is a good base value to measure the total number of baserunners a pitcher allows per inning of work.  The SO/BB ratio is somewhat related in that both incorporate walks, but I like it because it factors in strikeouts.  We all know if your pitchers are striking out hitters, it’s taking pressure off the defense.  Crash Davis thinks ground balls are more democratic, but he never saw the 2009 Royals infield defense.

This chart, more than any in this article, illustrates how far the Royals have come since the dark days of 2005 and 2006.  Holy crap, the Royals pitching staff actually had a higher WHIP than SO/BB ratio in 2006.

Sure, the turnaround is nice, but we can’t ignore the ground the Royals pitchers gave back in 2009.  And that’s with a Cy Young worthy performance from Zack Greinke.  Imagine what it would look like if Greinke were mortal.

Finally, I wish the Royals would stop insulting the intelligence of the fan by talking about our “instant gratification culture” and how they have improved the team.  Yeah, the team is better than it was four years ago.  And that does count for something.  However, to claim across the board improvement is simply a falsehood.  For the positives (slightly improved slugging) there are negatives (declining OBP.)  And because in 2009 the negatives have outweighed the positives, we’re staring squarely at a 97 loss season.

The “fans” (at least those of us who have been around for five years or longer... Although newcomers are certainly welcome to share in this debacle as well) have always been aware of the daunting task it was to turn this franchise around.  We get that, Dayton.  And we do appreciate the improvement.

The issue now is the stagnant state of the team since Moore's initial overhaul in 2007.  After treading water for the last two years at the major league level, the Royals are putting a ton of pressure on their minor league system.  Naturally, that's where they point when they blame us for looking for "instant gratification."  How are the minors doing?  Here's a chart detailing the wins across the minors since 2005.

I don’t know why Moore doesn’t like to use wins and losses.  By that measure, he’s improving the minor leagues.  Unfortunately, the improvement in the minors mirrors what’s happening in the majors: Yes, there has been improvement, but overall things seem to have slowed or even stalled.

However, the Royals minor league system (from A-ball up) produced more wins this season than any of the previous five.  That’s a nifty accomplishment.  Unfortunately, the increase in wins was mostly thanks to the Advanced A team in Wilmington which means that we’re still about three years out from seeing anything from “The Process” at the major league level.

What the hell?  I’ve waited this long, what’s three more years?

So maybe Dayton should stop patting himself on the back for the job he's done so far.  And he should probably drop the condescending attitude that we don’t understand “The Process.”   Face it… “The Process” hit a major bump this year and is in danger of completely going off the rails.  Probably the best thing for you to do is admit you made a few mistakes.  Try that instead of clinging to this “instant gratification” bull and blaming the fans for setting too high of a standard.  That’s bush league.

At this point, I think it’s entirely plausible that Moore and Hillman don’t realize they are in a results based business.  It’s looking that grim.

 Over the past few months, we have been treated to a number of interestingcomments from within the Royals' organization.   The team's best hitter, Billy Butler, has been publicly criticized for a perceived lack of proficiency in turning the rare 3-6-3 double play.   The General Manager has said, outloud mind you, that he neither understands nor believes in any of the current defensive statistical measures.    After his team traded for a center fielder, the Royals' manager spent the bulk of said player's first few weeks with the team playing him in right field due to the size of center field in Kaufmann Stadium.

Through it all, fans of the team and especially those who dare to criticize any aspect of the organization have been told to 'trust the process' and, on more than one occasion, dismissed as simply not understanding what is happening to the Royals.   A recurring theme from the hypersensitive, it's-not-our-fault, Royals is that injuries have derailed what was otherwise set up to be a promising season.

Well, to be fair, the Royals have suffered a number of injuries to key players and unlike a big market organization like the Angels (who have had more injuries to better players and are still going to make the playoffs), Kansas City simply cannot create the kind of depth to absorb an infestation of the injury bug.   There is some validity to that argument.    Had the Royals stayed healthy this season, they would not be the second worst team in the league.   However, they probably still would not be contending in even the weak American League Central, either, as the organization would lead you to believe.

Let's take a look at how this team shaped up on the first day of April this season, using runs created as our measuring stick.

Without delving into the nuances of playing time, the opening day roster had created 681 runs in 2008.   That is actually ten runs less than the 2008 Royals scored.  Now, without questions, there were expectations to do better than that.   The question is:  where those logical expectations?  

Let's start with the catching position.  

In 2008, John Buck and Miguel Olivo essentially split time behind the plate (although Olivo did DH some) and between the two created 77 runs.    The Royals handed Olivo the starting job, along with millions of dollars, in the off-season and has created 42 runs so far in 2009.   That pace is right in line with what Olivo has done throughout his career:  37 runs in 317 plate appearances in 2008, 43 in 469 in 2007 and 51 in 452 in 2006.   Expecting Olivo to do anything more than he had done in the past would have been illogical:  the Royals knew or should have known what they were getting from Miguel.   

Although his playing time has been greatly reduced, John Buck has chipped in 19 runs this season, creating runs at the second highest rate of his career.   That is not to say that Buck deserves more playing time, but simply to point out that he too has pretty much been exactly the player the team should have expected.

Now, we could through Brayan Pena into the mix with his 20 runs created in just 157 plate appearances.   I am hesitant to do so, however, given that the general manager and manager both put off promoting and playing him as long as possible and, even now, refuse to just put Pena out there everyday and let him hit.   Even though he is not 'part of the process', we will include Pena here, and we find that the catching position has created 72 runs so far in 2009 (that also deducts in a very rough fashion, games played by all three players at DH).   

Essentially, the Royals got exactly the offense they should have expected from the catching position.

Moving onto first base, and ignoring the horrible loss of outs created by Billy Butler turning two less 3-6-3 double plays then the average first baseman (maybe), the Royals have seen Butler emerge as a legitimate offensive force and create 89 runs thus far in 2009.   That is 38 more runs in just 100 more plate appearances over what Billy accomplished in 2008.    Certainly the Royals expected Butler to take a step forward offensively in 2009, but could they have truly envisioned this leap?   Without question, Kansas City has gotten more production at first base than they probably expected going into the season.

So catching was even and first base is a plus, what about second base?

Even though the Royals went out and signed gritty, gutty Willie Bloomquist to not one, but a two year contract in the off-season, they entered the regular season with Mark Teahen playing second base.   Those plans were quickly derailed when Alex Gordon went down with a hip injury in April, moving Teahen over to third, and giving Alberto Callaspo a shot at everyday duty at the position.   

All Callaspo has done is create 76 runs (3rd highest on the team) and do so at the second highest per game rate (only Butler is better).   The runs created total is ten better than Teahen managed in all of 2008.   Sure, Alberto is a horrific defender, but given that the club was willing to put Teahen, who had never played the position before, in that spot, they can hardly bemoan the defensive shortcomings.   Prior to the season, Kansas City put very little value on the defensive side of second base and ended up getting more runs out of the spot then they could have reasonably expected.   Another gain over pre-season expectations.

Now, we move to shortstop and, for once, we will not talk about the Yuniesky Betancourt trade.   The reason is simple:  if Mike Aviles had not been hurt, the Royals don't panic and make the trade for Betancourt.  Our examination today is whether management had the team on the right track in April or not and hence our focus is on April 1st, when Mike Aviles was coming off a fantastic rookie season that saw him create 67 runs in just 102 games.

No one expected Aviles to produce at the same level in 2009 as he did in 2008 - his BABIP was simply too high to be sustainable - but it was reasonable to expect Mike to create at least as many runs, albeit in more games.   As we know, Aviles played hurt for most of the first two months, created just six runs, and now is out until sometime next summer.   

That was a crippling blow to be sure, as the Royals had Tony Pena Jr., who had created 9 runs in 235 plate appearances in 2008, and Willie Bloomquist, who really was not a shortstop, as Aviles' only back-ups.   While Bloomquist had his moments at the plate early in the season, the Royals have taken hit at this position (even if you want to include Betancourt's 16 runs created since joining the team) and likely are going to end up with about 30 less runs out of their shortstops then they anticipated in the spring.  

Moving over to third base, Kansas City was expecting big things out of Alex Gordon in 2009.   After producing 79 runs in 2008 and 70 in 2007, the organization was certain this was going to be Alex's breakout year.   I will be honest and admit that I was right there with them.   Instead, Gordon went down with hip surgery in April, hurried back in late July and eventually struggled enough to get sent down to AAA in August.  I'm trying to be fair here, so we'll skip the whole service time/free agency discussion that goes hand in hand with the demotion.  

At any rate, the Royals had Mark Teahen to step in for Gordon in April and he gave them exactly the type of production the Royals should have anticipated.   Through Sunday's game, Mark had created 66 runs:  the exact number he provided in 2008.   Combined with the thirteen runs Gordon has created in limited duty, Kansas City is on pace to get virtually the same amount of runs out of third base in 2009 as they received in 2008.   Certainly, the Royals expected more, but injuries did actually hurt them here.

Okay, let's stop for a moment and examine the infield as a whole.   The Royals are certainly minus some expected runs at shortstop and a few more at third base, but without question are plus runs at second base and at first base, too.   Is it even?  Probably not quite and Dayton Moore can certainly say with a straight face that injuries did curtail someof the expected infield production.  Was it such a hit, however, to cause this team to not only fall out of contention, but become simply awful?   Not even close to that:  what happened in the infield, given the production gained from Callaspo and Butler, might have cost the Royals a couple of wins overall at most.

Moving onto the outfield, we find old reliable David DeJesus in left field.  We should all get off David's back, stop worrying about how much he smiles and the fact that he is not Carlos Beltran or Johnny Damon and just respect him for being the one guy on the team that gives you better than league average every freaking year.   Thus far in 2009, DeJesus has created 79 runs.   His totals from the previous four seasons are:  85, 84, 81, 76.   DeJesus is what he is and the Royals got exactly that.

In the off-season, the Royals moved their best setup man in Ramon Ramirez to Boston in exchange for centerfielder Coco Crisp.    They were hoping to get Coco circa 2005 when he created 97 runs and ignored the three seasons in between when Crisp created 53, 69 amnd 53 runs.   I am not sure the odds were working in Dayton Moore's favor on this one.   

Crisp was pretty decent until he went down for good with shoulder ailments after two months and 26 runs created.   His spot in center was filled by a combination of Mitch Maier, Willie Bloomquist and now, begrudgingly, Josh Anderson.   Doing a rough pro-ration of runs created by each while actually playing in center, the Royals' combined center fielders have created right at 64 runs thus far in 2009.    Was it realistic for the Royals to really expect much more than that out of Coco Crisp?   Given the past three seasons of injuries and reduced production, I think not.   Ignoring the defensive quotient (because, after all, the Royals pretty much do), Kansas City has still ended up with about what they should have expected offensively from the center field position.

When the Royals signed Jose Guillen to a three year deal prior to the 2008 season, they were looking for production along the lines of the 95 runs he created in 2007.   Instead, they got a surly 71 runs out of Jose in 2008 and less than half that (30) in an injury plagued 2009.    The Royals expected something north of 71 runs in 2009 and while we can debate whether that was logical or not, we do know that they have not gotten even that many runs this year out of right field.   With Bloomquist, Teahen and Maier all chipping in, you can edge the production from this position up to maybe 60 runs.   Expectation wise, the Royals' outfield is probably light about twenty-five runs in 2009.

Taking the infield and outfield combined, we find that injuries to Aviles, Gordon, Crisp and Guillen have likely cost the team somewhere between 30 to 35 runs throughout the course of the season.   How many wins is that?   A bunch if you want to front load them all into Zack Greinke starts, not a whole lot if you put them into Sidney Ponson and, recently, Luke Hochevar starts.  

Let's go back and add 30 runs to the 2008 total of 681.   That total of 711 runs scored/created would still put the Royals in the bottom third of American League offenses and probably the bottom quarter.   That is putting a lot of pressure on Zack Greinke, Gil Meche, Joakim Soria and nine other guys whom you had no real reason to trust.   Especially when you went into the season knowing that you were average or below average at all but two defensive positions.

But wait!  What about the designated hitter?   We have totally forgotten a critical offensive position in our discussion of offensive expectations!   In fact, the Royals went out and traded their second best setup man to acquire just the guy to fill this void.  

Mike Jacobs is the man in question.   The Royals gave up promising Leo Nunez to get him.  Paid three million to sign him pre-arbitration and shoved Ryan Shealy and Kila Kaaihue aside to put him on the roster.   So what did all that get the Royals?   Forty-eight runs, twenty-five less than he created in 2008, but only ten less than he provided in 2007.   Jacobs has not been hurt, nor has he crippled the team defensively as the Royals have had the good sense not to let him pick up his glove since April.

You want to make up the thirty runs injuries have cost you?  There's the place to do it and you, Dayton Moore, went out and got the wrong guy and in doing so decimated your bridge to one of the best closers in the league.  In turn, that weakness caused your manager, who is no genius at handling pitchers to begin with, to push his starters deeper into games in hopes of getting just a few outs closer to Soria.

We will examine the injuries to the pitching staff and the effect it has on 'The Process' on Thursday, but for now, we have shown that while injuries dinged the Royals' offense some this season, it was a bad trade and unrealistic expectations that hurt it more.

The Royals picked up their fourth win in a row yesterday afternoon behind Lenny DiNardo and a cast of thousands.   That win gave Kansas City a 5-4 record thus far in September:  heady stuff for a team that has simply been awful since the middle of May.

Is such a performance a blessing or a curse, however?

We all remember last September, when a listless Royals squad turned it all around to go 18-8 in the final month of the season.   Those final few weeks made many of us sure that 2009 would be a year of contention.   Among those convinced was Royals' GM Dayton Moore.  

He went for broke in the off-season:   trading two young relievers for Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp, signing Kyle Farnsworth and generally making moves that teams 'just a player away' make as opposed to continuing to build for the future. 

While we don't know if Kansas City will replicate their 2008 September performance, be careful to watch for statements like this:

• Robinson Tejeda will enter spring training as our number three starter
• Mike Jacobs really adjusted well at the plate late in the year, we'll definitely offer him arbitration
• We believe Yuniesky Betancourt played some of the best shortstop in baseball that last weekend of the season
• Bruce Chen showed an increased ability to keep us games as the season wore on (this one is likely to be broken out after he faces a lineup with six AAA callups)
• We really have not seen enough of Josh Anderson to not bring him back
• Both Olivo and Buck had some moments late in the year, we feel comfortable carrying and playing three catchers in 2010
• Gil Meche just needs some rest and we'll reevaluate him after his first spring training start.
• Brian Bannister just needs some rest and we'll reevaluate him after his first spring training start.
• Kyle Davies looked like he figured some things out in September.
• The bullpen really came together late, particularly Kyle Farnsworth.
• John Bale was gutty in coming back to pitch again in September, you can't have enough guys like that.
• If anything, September reaffirmed that this team needs Willie Bloomquist's grit and saavy in the lineup everyday.

Almost makes you hope the Royals finish up under .500 for the month, doesn't it?

Billy Freakin’ Butler.

Clark covered his emergence with the bat yesterday, so I won’t rehash that.  I want to discuss something else...

Last night, Bam Bam hit three doubles in a game for the fourth time this season.  (Is Bam Bam going to be his nickname?  I’m fine with that.  I also liked Big Donkey before I learned that that moniker belonged to Adam Dunn.)  When he stepped on the bag at second in the bottom of the eighth, he became the first player since at least 1954 (when box scores are less available) to hit three doubles in a game four times in a season. 

Butler is a doubles machine.  The Star had a nice list of players who popped 45 doubles in season where their age was 23 or younger that includes guys like Lou Geehrig, Joe Jackson, Hank Greenberg, Stan Musial and Alex Rodriguez.  Good company.

But I was looking for a different angle.  (Because that’s what we do.)  Since I’m kind of captivated by this three doubles in a game thing that Butler has done, I thought I’d go back and look at the number of players who have done that the most. 

By my count, since 1954 just seven players have had at least five games where they hit three or more doubles.  Here’s the list, with a familiar name at the top:

George Brett - 7
Mike Lowell - 7
Mark Grace - 6
Don Mattingly - 5
Miguel Tejada - 5
Ron Belliard - 5
Albert Belle - 5

Maybe that’s why I love the double so much.  Brett was the ultimate doubles machine, collecting 665 over his career.

Dave Parker, Al Oliver, Robin Yount, Eric Hinske, Ray Durham, Wade Boggs and Bobby Abreu are among the players who had three doubles in a game four times in their career.  That’s where Butler currently resides.  Of course, those guys accomplished this over a span of around 15 years.  Butler has done it in a single season.

Awesome.  There hasn't been much fun at the ballpark this summer, but Butler may just be worth the price of admission.

Billy Freakin' Butler.

Sam Mellinger tweeted the other day that a baseball guy summed up the Royals rather accurately and succinctly:  their good players aren't good enough.

That is a sentiment we have offered more than once on this site and on many others, too.   David DeJesus could be a regular on a contender, but he cannot be your best or second best hitter.  Same could be said for Alberto Callaspo (we'll ignore his defense for now) and maybe even Mark Teahen. 

Since trading Carlos Beltran, the Royals have been without an offensive star.   A supporting cast - sometimes not a very good cast at that - with no marquee name. 

As bad as 2009 has been for the Kansas City Royals, two good things have happened:  Zack Greinke has emerged as possibly the best starting pitcher in the league and Billy Butler has laid the groundwork to become an actual offensive force.

For the year, Butler's OPS+ of 122 ranks 30th in the American League.   While that may sound (and is) rather modest, it is worth noting that only one player ranked above Butler is his age.   At twenty-three years of age, Butler and Evan Longoria are the two youngest players in the top thirty and are, in fact, two years junior to Adam Lind: the next youngest player in the top thirty.

While Billy's overall batting line of .302/.355/.486/.842 falls closer to the 'solid' category than the 'star' category, his post-All Star line of .321/.380/.549/.929 certainly has 'star' written all over it.   His post-All Star OPS ranks 12th in the American League.

For players twenty-four years of age and younger, it is Evan Longoria and Billy Butler and then a big gap down to Asdrubal Cabrera and Gordon Beckham.    While Longoria certainly has received and earned more national recognition, the batting lines of the two players is remarkably comparable:

Butler: .302/.355/.486, 42 doubles, 17 home runs

Longoria: .281/.359/.541, 41 doubles, 30 home runs

I doubt that Billy will ever match Longoria's home run numbers, but he might well blow past the Rays' star in on-base percentage over the coming seasons.  

When was the last time the Royals could lay claim to having one of the best players of any age group?   Beltran is obviously the answer, so it has been almost six years.

Is it out of line to expect Butler second half numbers of this season to be his full season numbers for 2010?   And probably with more power yet?  I don't think so.  In fact, I would be willing to bet on it.

Is Billy Butler becoming a star enough to make the Royals contenders?   Nope, not even close.  

Butler will be a hitting star, but he won't be Joe Mauer and even teamed with Morneau and Kubel, that is probably not enough to get the Twins into the playoffs.   Still, one offensive star is closer to respectability than zero, so in that respect, Kansas City is one step closer to competing than they have been since 2003.

The Royals have a myriad of problems.   They are poorly coached and managed.   Their front office has bumbled their way through the season and spent the majority of the summer in 'cover your *ss' mode instead of addressing the problems fo the organization.  

That said, Kansas City has Zack Greinke, Joakim Soria and Billy Butler:  three players that would play for every team in baseball.   While that is not enough to compete in 2009 or 2010, it is progress.

It's Tuesday (and thanks to this blogging software, it's the second time I'm typing this) and that means that Alex Gordon is now tied to the Royals through the 2013 season.  He needed to stay in Omaha for 20 days and the seventh was day number 20.  So now, his free agency has been delayed for a year.

I'm not sure there are any winners in this situation.  Gordon is unhappy as a Royal (can you blame him?) and would probably be better off with a fresh start with a new team.  This whole service time debacle is simply the last straw.  Now that he's under club control for four years instead of three, I wonder if that pumps his value ever so slightly.  If the Royals were to deal him this winter, they would most certainly be selling low.  But maybe that extra year makes him a little more enticing.  Interesting...

I’m always pleasantly surprised how many stories a 100 loss team can turn out in a given year.  This year is no exception.  The Royals are sinking to new depths, but they always make it interesting.

--  Did you read the Star’s interview with General Manager Dayton Moore in Friday’s paper?  Give him credit - his team stinks, but he’s more than willing to spread the blame.

What’s interesting (or troubling, depending on your perspective) is that Manager Trey Hillman will most definitely return for the 2010 season. 

“I think Trey has done an exceptional job under the circumstances”

The circumstances are, of course, injuries and underperformance.  The latter circumstance is laughable.  We’ve been over it before, but it was underscored by my trip to the K on Monday afternoon.  As I scanned the Angels lineup, I realized that if you took anyone from their starting nine (with the exception of Jeff Mathis, who was subbing for Mike Napoli) and placed them on the Royals, they would immediately be either the best or second best hitter on the team.  Eight Angels are better than just about anyone the Royals can send to the plate.  (The exception here is obviously Billy Butler who crushed two home runs on Monday.) 

The Royals didn’t underperform in 2009.  They were simply a bad team. 

When Dayton talks “underperformance” he’s basically wiping his hands of the disaster of this year.  That would be great, except he’s the archetecht of said disaster.  He’s trying to absolve himself from any responsibility.  That’s troubling.  But it certainly doesn’t bother Papa Glass, who extended his contract. 

Anyway, I’m not too torn up about Hillman coming back for ’10.  If we’ve learned anything this season it’s that the Royals are at least another three years from even thinking about challenging.  Three years.  I’ll view Hillman as a caretaker manager for 2010.  He’s simply keeping the seat warm for someone with a little more moxie who can step in and guide this team.  I just don’t see Hillman in charge of this team if they are ever competitive. 

--  The rest of the Star’s article on Moore wasn’t really all that interesting.  Although this quote caught my eye.

“Is it Trey’s fault that in giving a young Billy Butler the opportunity to play first base, that we’ve had numerous 3-6-3 opportunities for a double play — and can’t execute that?"

I’m sorry, but this infuriates me.  Why is Moore throwing Butler under the bus here?  Does he not realize that Butler’s development as a ballplayer is one of only two positive things you can cite on this season.  And the 3-6-3 double play?  Is Moore being serious?

I’ve watched a ton of baseball, and if I had to guess, I’d say the 3-6-3 double play is the rarest of infield, ground ball double plays.  Unfortunately, I don’t have the numbers of 3-6-3 double play opportunities.  However, I do have the numbers of successful 3-6-3 double plays.  

Billy Butler has been involved in two 3-6-3 double plays this year.  OK, that doesn’t sound like a lot.  But let’s get some perspective.  Here’s how Butler compares to some of the top defensive first basemen in the game:

Kendry Morales has turned seven 3-6-3 double plays
Mark Teixeira has turned two 3-6-3 double plays
Miguel Cabrera has turned one 3-6-3 double play
Adrian Gonzalez has turned two 3-6-3 double plays

Anyway, I don’t think the Royals have lost a ton of outs because of Butler’s lack of ability on the ultra-rare 3-6-3 double play. 

Why would Moore single out Butler and a rare defensive play?  It’s strange, isn’t it?  There are so many things wrong with this team and this is what Moore chooses to cite in an interview.

It was interesting in Monday’s game when Butler did have an opportunity to turn the 3-6-3 double play, but it didn’t happen.  That’s because he wisely stepped on the bag for the first out and got the runner that was on first in a rundown. Poor Butler.  That probably cost him a cool million in arbitration.  If Dayton Moore is noticing things like this, it has to be important.

--  I’ll never tire of pointing out how horrible Mike Jacobs has been this year. It’s part of my crusade to persuade the front office he should be non-tendered at first opportunity this winter.  Here’s the latest:

Worst percentage of scoring runners from third with less than two outs (minimum 20 opportunities)

Mike Jacobs - 24%
Joe Crede - 27%
Lyle Overbay - 28%
Ichiro - 29%
Nick Green - 32%

The major league average is 52%. 

I will give Jacobs some credit… He bounced a ball between the hole at first and second base in the game on Monday to score a runner from third. 

Yippee.

--  The Royals finally brought in some reinforcements for the bullpen when they recalled Dusty Hughes, Victor Marte and Carlos Rosa. 

It simply boggles the mind that the Royals kept trotting the same crap from the bullpen night after night when everyone (except maybe Dayton Moore) knew that they were horribly overmatched. 

These moves should have been made in July. 

--  And of course the new guys get thrown into the fire straight away which left the bullpen bare behind Zack Greinke on Saturday.  Yosh Yabuta is the latest to sabotage Greinke’s Cy Young chances. 

That’s one thing that’s been a total team effort this year.

The Royals traded pitching prospect Danny Gutierrez to the Texas Rangers for catcher Manny Pina and outfielder Tim Smith.   Both of those players had advanced up to AA ball in the Rangers' system this season.   The trade brings a close to a bizarre year for Gutierrez, who had risen from a 33rd round pick in 2005 to one of the organization's best starting pitching prospects. 

It all started last fall with an assault conviction against Gutierrez and continued on during the spring when Gutierrez, under the advice of his new agent - some guy named Scott Boras, begged to differ with the Royals' rehabilitation plans for a minor injury (shoulder?), that led to a suspension of sorts.   All that delayed the 22 year old righthander's season debut until July 28th.

Eight games and a month later, after putting up a 1.65 earned run average in 27 innings, striking out 25 and walking just 7, Gutierrez was sent packing.   For a pretty decent (and entertaining) discussion of this trade, go here.   For the purposes of our discussion, cross another name off the list of of Royals Authority Top 10 pitching prospect list.  Let's take a look at what happened to that group this season.

1.  Dan Cortes - A 3.92 ERA in his second AA season was hardly inspiring.  Nor were the 57 strikeouts in 80 innings coupled with 50 walks.   He was sent off to Seattle in the Yuniesky Betancourt trade and has posted an ERA north of five for the Mariners' AA team.

2.  Carlos Rosa - Nearly traded for Mike Jacobs, then turned into a reliever in spring training, we pretty much all expected Rosa to be in the majors by now.   Instead, Rosa suffered through a terrible May in which he allowed 20 runs in 14 innings and despite a good June, even better July and a tolerable August, the Royals have yet to give him a shot in their incredibly awful bullpen.   For the year, Carlos had 80 strikeouts in 71 innings, having walked 32 and allowed AAA batters to hit .258 against him.

3.  Danny Duffy - It has become kind of the 'in' thing to downgrade Duffy this year, but I still can see a dominant lefty starter in the making.   Pitching in Advanced A Wilmington, Duffy has struck out 117 batters in 120 innings on his way to a 3.13 ERA.  Opponents are hitting just .232 against him, after managing just a .193 average last year in Burlington.

4.  Danny Gutierrez - see above

5.  Mike Montgomery - Everyone loves last year's supplemental first round pick and I do, too.   After posting a 2.17 ERA in 12 games for Low A Burlington, the Royals promoted Montgomery to Advanced A where he has posted a 2.35 ERA in eight starts.  Mike's combined stats for the year: 104 innings pitched, allowed 76 hits, walked 35 and struck out 92, while allowed batters to hit just .202.   Nice.

6.  Julio Pimentel - He has a broken elbow.   Really, it broke - literally.

7.  Kelvin Herrera - Just 19 years old, many were expecting some big things from Herrera this season.  On May 6th, Kelvin debuted for Burlington, and pitched five shutout innings, allowing just three hits, and has been on the disabled list ever since.

8.  Tim Melville - For a high school draftee whose first exposure to professional ball has been all the way up in A ball, Melville has done alright this season:  4.00 ERA in 92 innings, allowing 42 walks and 85 hits.   In Timothy's first 36 innings, he struck out just 25 batters, but has fanned 49 in his last 50 innings.  All things considered, this was pretty good first year for Melville.

9.  Blake Wood - Certainly the next starting prospect to be converted to the bullpen, Blake struggled again in AA.   Opponents battered him for a .302 average, after hitting .283 against Wood last year at the same level.   There was talk of Wood having closer-type potential several years back and, given his struggles in 31 AA starts, a look at relieving certainly seems in order.

10.  Alex Caldera - Failed to build on an outstanding 2008 in Low A and instead posted a 4.99 ERA in 26 High A starts this year.  Although Alex's post-All Star earned run average was almost three runs less, his strikeouts dropped off the map (just 34 in 69 innings after fanning 64 in 63 innings prior to the break).   I guess in an organization where 'shoulder fatigue' and 'dead arm' syndrome abound, a guy that had made 51 consecutive starts over two seasons is worth something.

Keep in mind, the above Top Ten list was from the pre-season and has not been adjusted for what has transpired in 2009 (that's what the 2010 Royals Authority Annual is for).  Certainly there will be some major changes, but sadly there is starter sitting in AAA or AA that missed the list this spring and will make it next spring.    

What you see from the above is that until the Royals sign Aaron Crow, there is no starter above A ball that you can forecast as a front line starter.   While you can make the case that the rotation is the last spot the Royals need help, it would be kind of nice if there were some live arms in Omaha to compete for the number four and five rotation spots in 2010.

Of course, I may not be trusting the process enough.

The Kansas City Star reported on Monday that the Royals and General Manager Dayton Moore have reached an agreement on a contract extension that will keep him in Kansas City through the 2014 season. 
I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.

During his tenure with the Royals, The General Manager has shown zero aptitude in constructing a major league roster.  Let’s take a step back and examine the major league moves since the end of the 2008 season:

-- Acquired Mike Jacobs for Leo Nunez

-- Acquired Coco Crisp for Ramon Ramirez

-- Signed Kyle Farnsworth to a two-year contract

-- Signed Horacio Ramirez to a one-year contract

-- Signed Doug Waechter to a one-year contract

-- Signed Willie Bloomquist to a two-year contract

-- Signed Juan Cruz to a two-year contract

-- Signed Zack Greinke to a four-year contract

-- Acquired Ryan Freel for a PTBNL

-- Acquired Josh Anderson for a PTBNL

-- Acquired Yuniesky Betancourt

And a couple of minor league moves that had an impact on the big leagues:

-- Signed Luis Hernandez to a minor league deal

-- Claimed Tug Hulett off waivers

-- Signed Sidney Ponson to a minor league deal

-- Signed Bruce Chen to a minor league deal

That makes 14 players who made their Royals debut this year.  (Greinke obviously isn’t included since he was already here.)  Those 14 have a combined WAR of -0.7.

Are you kidding me?  Negative 0.7?  How is this even possible?

Of the 14 newcomers, only four (Crisp, Ponson, Farnsworth and Chen) have a positive WAR.  Only four players The General Manager added to his team are above replacement value at their position.  The three pitchers are barely above replacement value - ranging between 0.6 and 0.3.  The rest seven of them are worse than what we would expect from a replacement level player. 

Do you know how much The General Manager committed to this below average bunch?    Do you want to know?  Are you sitting down?

$20.34 million

The General Manager took over $20 million and pissed it away on utility guys, fringe players and Triple-A back-ups. 

I thought last year’s team, with it’s five middle infielders, was a disaster from a roster-building stand point.  This year’s roster is even worse.  There’s no rhyme or reason behind any of the above moves and most were done with a blind eye to other, less expensive alternatives.  You want to know why this year has been a "disappointment?"  Revisit that list.  How can anyone think the majority of those players can help a big league team?

I have lost faith in The General Manager to put a quality product together to compete.  Over the last two years, he’s illustrated that he lacks the vision to construct a roster that makes any kind of sense.   Aside from Gil Meche, his free agent acquisitions have been beyond horrible.  Jose Guillen alone has crippled this franchise from the moment he reported to camp with 20 extra pounds before the 2008 season.  I’m now looking to this winter with a great deal of apprehension - I have to hope that The General Manager decides to stay clear of the free agent (and trade) market, because he’s capable of doing more damage.

We all know the only way this team will get better is through internal development.  That means the draft and the minor leagues.  The General Manager has been in charge of this team for three drafts. (Maybe four, depending on how Luke Hochevar performs in his latest start, this can change.  Some days, The General Manager will take credit.  Others, not so much.)  In his first two drafts, he took high school bats.  We’re still a couple of years away before we can render judgement on those.  (Although if Eric Hosmer doesn’t get those glasses soon…) 

Besides, do we really need to be reminded at how bare the minor league cupboard was when the current General Manager took over?  He’s undertaken a complete overhaul.  Not because he’s some ego maniac who needs his fingerprints over everything.  But because the minor league system needed a complete overhaul.  Of this year’s top 10 prospects (according to Baseball America) only four had played above Single-A.  And of those four, only one (Dan Cortes) was acquired by The General Manager. 

It takes time to build a minor league system.  And because of the Glass Family and their hamfisted sense of timing, The General Manager was behind the curve in making his mark on the system. 

Then it should be noted that The General Manager isn’t the guy who is actually making the decisions on draft day.  That chore falls to the scouting director.  The Royals fired Deric Ladiner following the 2008 draft and replaced him with JJ Picollo.  Undoubtedly, this move was made because past Ladiner draft picks (both before and after the current General Manager arrived) were progressing too slowly.  Does replacing the scouting director buy The General Manager more time in the eyes of ownership?  I hope not, because that amounts to giving the GM a mulligan.  And we all know how that turns out.  If anything, this move should bring the heat - guys were progressing slowly?  Now they should be moving along at a fast clip if Picollo and The General Manager hope to stick around.

A lot of fans have had a good laugh this year about The General Manager and his drafts.  They point to the lone bright spots on this team - Zack Greinke and Billy Butler - and say that they’re not guys who were drafted by the current regime.  This is true, but it should serve as a reminder of how long it takes for high school talent to develop.  Both were probably rushed to the big leagues with Greinke (class of 2002) finally reaching his potential and Butler (class on 2004) just now scratching the surface.  It’s taken roughly five years to get these players to where they are solid major leaguers.   It takes time for a farm system to develop talent.

The General Manager had been operating under a contract that was to expire at the end of the 2010 season.  There is always something to avoid having “lame duck” status.  When an executive or manager is operating in the final year of a contract, it’s going to be uncomfortable for everyone.  It eventually becomes a distraction with people asking questions about next year and it paralyzes an organization with inertia.  Why make moves that may come to fruition in three years when you don’t even know if you’re going to be around in a few months.  Of course, these guys are professionals… They won’t stop working just because they’re nearing the end of a contract.  However, it is human nature to worry about your own security when it is in doubt.  And when you’re worried about your future, it most definitely has an impact on how you behave in the present.  No matter what anyone says, it has an impact.

The nature of the draft demands that The General Manager be given a fair shake in evaluating his overall performance.  It’s entirely possible we’ll need more info than will be available through 2010 before rendering judgement.  But four years?  That seems a excessive given the missteps that have been made over the last 12 months.

On the positive side, it’s entirely possible that The General Manager’s legacy in Kansas City will be the fact that he had a crow bar big enough to pry open the wallet of David Glass.  The increase in payroll and the infusion of cash in the draft and the international scouting department is, on the surface, laudable.  The problem has been how The General Manager has allocated the money. 

However, the timing of this extension is awful.  The Royals are skidding toward another 100 loss season.  The General Manager has developed a siege mentality and is rambling on about “The Process.”  Every single off-season move (excepting the Greinke extension) has been an unmitigated disaster that has made this team worse.  Nothing that has happened over the last year would indicate that The General Manager is worthy of an extension.  Sure, it gives the organization some stability, removing the “lame duck” in front of his name, but at what cost?  It seems that if you really wanted to extend the General Manager, you could at least wait until the winter… After the bitter taste of this season has faded.

And four years?  Those are extensions for winners.  A GM can get something like that after winning a title.  This is grossly excessive.  If you decide patience is the way to go and there were outside factors (i.e. injuries) that prevented this year's team from reaching it's potential, then you extend the contract by a year.  There's plenty of evidence that says The General Manager is in over his head.  Give him enough rope... One more year should do the trick.  Four?  Damn, that's wrong.

When Dayton Moore went on his rant about “The Process,” he sounded like someone barricaded inside the bunker, who has lost touch with what’s really going on outside.  The General Manager is fortunate the owner of his team seems to have a similar tenuous grasp on reality.