With the Royals' position players officially reporting today, the excitement of spring training games looming on the horizon is starting to build. (I mean that sincerely, not sarcastically, by the way)

I don't intend to rain on that parade and let me preface this very short column by saying I like Chris Getz and really hope he becomes a fixture at second base for the Royals, but how easily could the names that are due to report today be different?  And, if so, might the Royals be better if they were?

Of course, I am not talking 'contender' better, but certainly 'intriguingly' better.   There are players out there right now, without jobs or who recently just got them, that one could realistically see fitting into the Royals lineup this year.  It is a nasty game of hindsight as no one could really predict how the free agent market would go this year, but we'll play it anyway.

What if Dayton Moore had not traded Mark Teahen for Chris Getz and Josh Fields?   Or signed Scott Podsednik and/or Rick Ankiel?

Instead, what if the Royals had signed Felipe Lopez in their thirst to not have to watch Alberto Callaspo attempt to field ground balls?  What if they had signed Russell Branyan and Johnny Gomes?

Currently, Gomes has yet to come to terms with the Reds.  No one seems to want Lopez and Branyan just finally found employment last week.

Sure, Gomes is a butcher in right field, although certainly no worse than Jose Guillen.   Would an outfield of Teahen-DeJesus-Gomes and an infield of Gordon-Betancourt-Lopez-Butler, with Branyan as your DH be more or less likely to win than what is probably going to take the field in April?

By the time you are reading this, the first workout of the pitchers and catchers could be underway.  Awesome.

Time for the first edition of spring notes.

Let’s start with a little old news.  Hopefully, it’s a semi-fresh take.  Anyway, here’s Trey Hillman’s top choice for a lineup as reported by the Star’s Bob Dutton:

Podsednik - LF
Getz - 2B
DeJesus - RF
Butler - 1B
Ankiel - CF
Guillen - DH
Gordon - 3B
Betancourt - SS
Kendall - C

A few random, knee-jerk thoughts:

-- Any lineup that fails to feature Alberto Callaspo who was the team’s second best hitter last summer is a bad lineup.  There can be no debate about this.

-- The outfield alignment is screwed up, but we knew this was going to happen.

--  Podsednik won’t get on base enough to justify a high position in the lineup.  In writing about him for the Royals Authority Annual (on sale soon!) it was obvious he’s entirely dependent on a high batting average on balls in play to elevate his OBP.  He walks in less than 8% of his plate appearances. 

--  If you’re going with Getz in the lineup, I suppose he’s fine at second.  He makes plenty of contact and won’t kill a rally with a double play.  Last year in 76 double play opportunities (when he was at bat with a runner on first and less than two outs), Getz hit into only four double plays.  Nifty.

--  There are three guys who are made for the number nine spot in that lineup and there really isn’t a number four hitter in the bunch.

-- I don’t get why SABR Trey is looking to slide Butler down to the cleanup spot.  He seems perfect for the number three.

Here’s my ideal lineup:

DeJesus - CF
Getz - 2B
Butler - 1B
Ankiel - RF
Callaspo - DH
Gordon - 3B
Kendall - C
Betancourt - SS
Podsednik - LF

The best hitters on the team occupy the number 1, 3 and 5 spots in the order which gives the Royals the best chance at a big inning - Something that’s going to be rare with this offense.  Ankiel is probably the best long ball threat at this point, so he gets the cleanup spot by default, although if Gordon shows some thunder, I wouldn’t have an issue with flip flopping them in the order.  I also wouldn’t be adverse to a Gordon/Josh Fields platoon at third.

I’m not happy with putting Kendall and Betancourt back to back in the lineup, but what else can you do?  Cross your fingers and hope they make the final outs of the inning (which will happen over 70% of the time) and then Podsednik can be a de facto second leadoff hitter. 

-- “Player Inventory” is the catch phrase of the spring.  Holy crap, I wish I were making this up. 

This new buzzword comes to us thanks to the previous season when the Royals lost Mike Aviles, Alex Gordon, Gil Meche, Coco Crisp, Brian Bannister and Kyle Davies for extended periods due to injury.  Look, the Royals weren’t contenders last year, no matter what.  Take the starting left side of the infield, the starting center fielder and three-fifths of the starting rotation of any team in the league and they aren’t going to have the depth necessary to cover all the loses.  No way. 

It’s a nice idea, but if a similar scenario happens this year, the Royals would again lack the proper depth to replace all those parts.  The Royals always seem to be trying to close the barn door after all the animals have escaped.

-- I prefer to play what I call roster math.  As Dutton points out, there are several players on the 40-man roster who have options remaining that may ultimately come into play when it comes closer to Opening Day. 

For example, there’s the heated battle for the backup spot in the Royals outfield.  Mitch Maier doesn’t have any options left while Brian Anderson does.  Of course, Anderson has a major league contract that will pay him $700k while Maier will make only around $420k.  It would have been great if someone noticed this early in the off season.

Chris Getz also has an option left, which could come into the equation if he struggles badly this spring.  Although it would be an epic upset if he didn’t break camp with the team.

-- One related roster math note that received considerable attention was this take on Betancourt:

Something to remember: Betancourt has options remaining. While he has sufficient service time to refuse the assignment and become a free agent, he would void whatever remained of his $9 million contract through 2012 by doing so.

If Betancourt struggles, and Aviles returns to form, the Royals won’t hesitate to make a switch. That won’t likely happen by opening day, but the way each plays this spring bears watching.

I really wonder about this.  We’re talking about the same organization that gave Tony Pena, Jr every opportunity to prove his worthlessness before they finally gave up.  Do we really think they would be quick to option Betancourt, a player who costs much more money and who cost them a prospect in the trade that brought him to KC?  Besides, there’s a ton of evidence that GMDM coveted Betancourt for years.  Years.  No, I don’t think he’s going to cut the cord on Betancourt so quickly. 

Although it would be great if Betancourt was optioned and he declined and voided his contract.  Unfortunately, stuff like that doesn’t happen to the Royals.

-- The Royals slogan for 2010 is “It All Happens Here.” What, exactly is “it?”  Bad fundamentals?  Buck nights?  Zack Greinke shutouts?  Drunken nights on the party porch?  The possibilities are endless.  I suppose that’s the idea.

There's a TV commercial that goes along with this slogan and can be viewed here.  When you watch it, it's apparent that they're de-empahsizing baseball and instead trying to sell all the other periphery that goes on at the stadium.  By my count, there were roughly 35 cuts in the commercial - three of which featured actual baseball being played by actual Royals.  The same number of cuts that featured food.

There have been some over/under type topics on other websites and comments, so apologies to anyone who thinks I stole their idea (it's possible that I did!).

Here are ten numbers that I think will have a very distinct impact on what the Royals' 2010 season might become.   Hitting the overs on these would, without question, surpass all expectations anyone has for the team this coming season.

• Zack Greinke's Win Total

Wins are a horrible indicator of how good a starting pitcher really was (see Zack Greinke circa 2009), but if the Royals are going to have at least an acceptable season, Zack will need to pitch well and be rewarded for it.   How many games did he leave last year after giving up two runs or less in six plus innings of work and not get a win?  EIGHT.    

The over/under for Greinke wins:   18

• Gil Meche's Innings

Another key to the Royals' in 2010 is simply a healthy Gil Meche.   You can spin it anyway you want to (and there is major portion of the Royals' fanbase that simply refuses to believe Meche is good), but not a lot of pitchers can match Meche's two year run through 2007 and 2008 for innings and performance.   Comfortably settled in as the number two pitcher and hopefully healthy, Meche grinding up major innings with an earned run average in the upper threes is a necessity and a very real possibility.

The over/under for Meche innings:  200

• Alex Gordon Home Runs

Will 2010 be the year that Alex actually breaks out?  If not, the chances that there ever will be a breakout season will pretty much be gone.   There are a lot of factors that define 'break out':  on-base percentage, lower strikeouts, a decent average, but if Gordon hits with power and posts a big number in this area, I have to believe all those other things will have fallen in line, too.

The over/under for Gordon home runs: 27

• Mike Aviles Games Played

Unlike so many other players, Aviles will not get to play unless he is actually performing (a novel concept, I know).   Plus, playing in a number of games will mean he is truly healthy.   Given that a number of organizational favorites that are between Mike and playing time, he will truly earn whatever appearances he is granted.    The more Aviles the better, in my book.

Over/under on Aviles games played:  105

• Chris Getz On-Base Percentage

I am on the Getz bandwagon, for better or worse.   Assuming he is the everyday second baseman, which I think is almost pre-ordained, his ability to get on-base is key.

Over/under on Getz OBP: .360

• Rick Ankiel Slugging Percentage

Ankiel is going to play, barring injury, and his calling card will be power.  I don't care if it's doubles or home runs and I think we would be be delusional to believe whatever power Rick hits with would be accompanied by batting average and on-base percentage. 

Over/under on Ankiel's 'Slug': .500

• Joakim Soria's Saves

Again, in the world of pitching, saves is not a tremendous indicator of performance.  When taken in terms of the team concept, your closer getting major numbers of saves is an indicator of good starting pitching, solid setup and at least enough offense to keep you in the game.  In this case, Soria getting enough save opportunities (that he converts them is as safe a bet as there is) will mean that void that existed in innings seven and eight last year has been filled.

Over/under on Soria's saves:  40

• Billy Butler's Doubles

We expect a lot out of Billy this year and with good reason.   He might have 'batting title' potential.  He might hit a ton of home runs.   He might be the total hitting package.   In the end, if Butler has a ton of doubles, everything else will likely take care of itself.

Over/under on Billy's doubles: 55

• Luke Hochevar's ERA

How nice would it be for Hochevar to simply become solid?   I'm not asking for the moon here, just for the former number one pick to settle as a nice middle of the rotation guy.   We will assume that Hochevar will get the ball every fifth day this year, so posting something reasonable in this category would be big for the Royals.

Over/under on Hochevar's earned run average: 4.30

• Jose Guillen's Games Played

You can hope that Jose is healthy, content and gets off to a good start, making him tradable or at least tolerable.   However, since I tend to live in the real world, I think the best thing that can happen is that Jose simply does not play a lot for whatever reason.  Unlike the other nine over/unders, this one is all about hitting the under.

Over/under on Guillen games played: 24

Make the first nine overs and hit the last under and Kansas City might not be a contender, but they at least will be interesting.  

Playing revisionist history with a professional draft, while fun, is unfair.   Redraft the new version of the Cleveland Browns and you can get close to having a Pro Bowl player at all twenty-two positions on the field.    No general manager can hit on every pick.  

That factis especially true when it comes to Major League Baseball's draft.   Despite all the scouting and all the work, every team passed on Albert Pujols TWELVE times, some even did so thirteen times.   Forty-eight players were drafted in front of Carlos Beltran.   Zack Greinke was considered a 'signability' pick when he went sixth overall in 2002.  You get the picture.

So, it is unfair to look back at the Royals' rather hideous draft record and say "they should have done this here and that the next year and taken these two guys in the 14th and 20th rounds in 2003 and we would be in the World Series".   We are not going to do that sort of exercise today, but I am going to look at one, just one, pick that might have changed the direction of this franchise.  

The 2001 draft is one that will life in infamy for the Royals forever.    It was headed by Colt Griffin in the first round and Roscoe Crosby in the second round:  both unmitigated disasters.   Worse, the brief major league appearances by Angel Sanchez and Devon Lowery are the only contributions on the big league level the Royals ever got out of the fifty picks they made that year.   This draft stands as the crown jewel of crap among an array of pretty awful drafts in the early part of this century.

Obviously, it also lends itself handily to us revisionists.

The first round of 2001 had Joe Mauer going number one and Mark Texiera going at six, but there are not names that leap off the list after the Royals picked Griffin that make your stomach hurt.  Until you get down to the supplemental phase of that round and find David Wright going at pick number thirty-eight and signing for $960,000.

Sure, thirty-eight is a long way removed from nine, but it would not be unheard of for the budget conscious Royals to take a '30 to 50 level talent' to save money (Chris Lubanski anyone?).   What if the Royals would have picked David Wright instead of Colt Griffin?

First off, Kansas City would have enjoyed a third baseman who has a career line of .309/.389/.518 who has played 144 or more games in every season between 2005 and 2009.   He has pop, he can run and has made himself into a decent defender.   Wright signed a six year/$55 million dollar extension near the end of the 2006 season, which might have been doable for the Royals - albeit probably in 2007 as Mike Sweeney's contract was about to come off the books.

Just having David Wright at the hot corner obviously makes the Royals much better, but what else would it have done?

Well, Wright came up with the Mets midway through the 2004 season, right about the time Allard Baird was demanding a major league ready third baseman and catcher for Carlos Beltran.   With Wright ready to go at third, Baird's demands would not have included a third baseman (Allard suffered from tunnel vision, but he wasn't an idiot).

As the Beltran sweepstakes heated up, the Yankees offered Robinson Cano and Dioner Navarro for the Royals' centerfielder (also reportedly offered at the same time by the Red Sox were Kevin Youkilis and Kelly Shoppach, but that's a story for another scenario).   Would the Royals have pulled the trigger on that deal if Wright was ready to take over at third base?  Let's say yes.

Okay, so now the Royals have David Wright at third base and, beginning in 2005, have Robinson Cano and his career line of .306/.339/.480 at second.   Cano signed a four year/$30 million extension before the 2008 season, but even if the Royals were not prepared to do so, they would still have Robinson under control for the 2010 season.   Assuming Kansas City did get Wright signed to a Met's like extension in 2007 and signed Cano, too, they would be paying $19 million for their second and third basemen in 2010.

Navarro has had a choppy career at best and might not have prevented the signing of either Miguel Olivo or Jason Kendall, so we'll just leave the catching position as is in this scenario.

Now, with Wright playing third starting in mid-2004 and Cano manning second starting in 2005, it is pretty hard to believe the Royals would have chosen Alex Gordon with the second overall pick in the 2005 draft.   In fact, they probably would not have considered Ryan Zimmerman or Ryan Braun, either, but they might well have looked at a shortstop considered the most 'major league ready' player of that draft:  Troy Tulowitzki.   Beginning in late 2006, Tulowitzki has hit .283/.357/.474 as the Rockies' everyday shortstop.   He had an injury plagued 2008, but a big year last season (.930 OPS).   Sure, those numbers are inflated by playing in Denver half the time, but tell me you don't want him in a Royals' uniform.

So, beginning in 2007, Kansas City could put an infield of Cano, Tulowitzki and Wright....and Ross Gload on the diamond.   At that time, all three players' salary load was low enough that I do not think it would have prevented the Royals from signing Gil Meche.   As an aside, how many wins does Meche get in 2007 with those three guys hitting for him?   Or how many does Greinke get in 2009?   Twenty-eight?!

Fast forward to 2008 and assume that Wright and Cano have signed the extensions referenced above, plus Tulowitzki has signed his six year/$31 million dollar deal at the same time as Cano.   That would almost certainly have kept Kansas City from pursuing Jose Guillen...or at least have kept their offer considerably below the three year/$36 million mark!  By the way, with Tulowitzki in the fold, the Royals would be paying the Cano-Tulowitzki-Wright combo $22.5 million in 2010.   Take Guillen's $12 million out, plus the four to Kyle Farnsworth and that gets pretty doable.

Throw Billy Butler into the mix at first base and the Royals would be looking forward to 2010 with arguably the best infield in baseball.  Sure, the Cano-Butler combination on the right side of the infield is not a defensive strongpoint, but Tulowitzki-Wright is above average.   

The Royals would not have any real money to play with this off-season, which might have precluded the Kendall signing (boo-hoo!), but probably would not have kept them from getting Scott Podsednik and Rick Ankiel.   The pitching staff, probably minus the Farnsworth albatross, would be the same (actually better in the addition by subtraction way of thinking) and the spectre of Jose Guillen would not be an issue.

Maybe all this still does not make the Royals championship contenders, but I would wager it certainly puts them in the mix for the playoffs.   It is all an exercise in fantasy without question, but it does point out how just one pick...ONE PICK...might have changed the course of a franchise.

With about a week remaining until camps open, now is as good a time as any to take stock of the AL Central and see how the Royals rivals have done this winter.  We know all about the Royals additions… Scotty Pods, Ankiel, the South Side duo of Getz & Fields (or Fields & Getz) and the Punchless One behind the plate.  How do the Royals moves stack up against their division rivals?  Has anyone done enough to run away with the title, or will it be another close one?

And most importantly, how will everything shake out once the dust settles in October.

What follows is a brief capsule of each team in the Central and how the moves they’ve made effect their title chances.  At the end of the article, you’ll find my current (in other words, subject to change) picks for the order of finish.

Chicago White Sox

This is where the strongest rotation in the Central lives.  Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and a healthy Jake Peavy will be difficult for any other division rival to top.  Hell, that could be the best rotation in baseball.  Plus, those four can rack up the innings so if the Sox can get some quality work out of newcomer JJ Putz in the eighth and Bobby Jenks in the ninth, they’re going to get some wins no matter how bad the offense is. 

Speaking of the offense, what exactly is going on here?  Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel are all newcomers who will certainly have some impact on the team, but it’s not going to be positive.  Pierre will have the most opportunity to do some damage as he figures to slide into left and will certainly bat leadoff.  He’s a player only Ozzie could love.  Jones and Vizquel are backups although it’s not difficult to imagine Jones could get some playing time if Alex Rios can’t rediscover his stroke.

Once upon a time, I had a man-crush on Rios.  I really bought into the hype that he was going to be one of the best young outfielders in the game.  Now?  Not so much.  That’s what back to back underwhelming seasons will get you at Royals Authority - no more respect.  And since Rios was downright horrible last year after his move to the South Side (.199/.229/.301 in 154 plate appearances) he’s the leading candidate for Ozzie Guillen’s Dog House.  How great would it be if Jones reports to camp fat and Rios continues to forget how to hit?  Imagine the quote gold we’d get from Guillen.  And that it would be happening to the White Sox would be a bonus.

Cleveland Indians

We’ve said it before, but it just has to suck to have surrendered CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee and gotten so little in return.  Matt LaPorta will get an opportunity to start, as will Lou Marson, so it’s probably still a little early to completely trash the trades, but still…  Quite a bummer for Indian fans.

There’s still hope for Cleveland fans that Grady Sizemore will bounce back and Shin-Soo Choo can build off his breakout year.  And maybe Travis Hafner can hit 20 bombs.  Although he hasn’t done that since 2007.  They picked up Austin Kearns and Shelley Duncan on minor league deals, which I suppose could help at some point.  Other than that, their big major league move was to sign Mike Redmond.  In this case, big is a relative term.

But the pitching… even with Lee for half the summer the Indians had the second worse staff in baseball.  And now they tentatively have Jake Westbrook penciled in as their number one starter with Fausto Carmona as their number two.  Maybe it’s just me, but I’d prefer someone else at the top of the rotation other than a guy who hasn’t pitched in a year and a half after undergoing the Tommy John surgery.  And with Kerry Wood at the back of the pen, this staff looks like it will once again flop to the bottom of the AL.

Oh, the Indians will likely have the lowest payroll in the division come Opening Day.  

Detroit Tigers

The Verlander extension got a ton of ink, but that masks a simple fact about this team:  They are extremely unbalanced with old players (Magglio Ordonez, Adam Everett, Brandon Inge) and newcomers (Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore are currently listed at the top of the Tigers depth chart in center and second, respectively.)  That’s a potentially combustable mix. 

I see some similarities with the Royals here:  A lockdown top of the rotation ace (Verlander for the Tigers and Greinke for the Royals) and a big bat in his prime in the middle of the order (Miguel Cabrera and Billy Butler.)  The Tiger veterans are a little better than the Royal veterans, but that just means they cost more. 

Further, it will be interesting to see where Max Scherzer figures into the Tigers pitching mix.  For now, he’s slated for the rotation but many feel his future lies in the bullpen.  One thing is for sure, with Verlander and Scherzer in the rotation the Tigers will be making a ton of hitters look foolish.  While Porcello doesn’t pile up the strikeouts, he is developing into a talent.  Beyond that, there are a ton of question marks for the rest of the staff.  For Tiger fans that’s nothing out of the ordinary.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins overhauled the middle of their infield by trading for JJ Hardy in November and then acquiring free agent Orlando Hudson just last week.  Both players represent upgrades from the players they are replacing.  Hardy is superior with the glove and is a prime candidate for an offensive rebound from his dismal 2009.  He has 20 home run power, but before we project any power numbers, it will be interesting to see how the Twins new outdoor stadium plays.  Hudson is solid with the glove, with better range to his left than back up the middle.  Offensively, this is a huge win for the Twins.  Last summer, their 2B hit a combined .209/.302/.267.  Yuck.  That’s Royals designated hitter territory.  (Memo to Dayton:  Check on the availability of Matt Tolbert!)  Hudson will have no problem improving upon that production.

Last year, the Twins had an extremely productive offense - one of the best in the league.  Their 5 runs per game was the fourth best rate in the AL, behind the other three playoff teams. (Yankees, Angels and Red Sox were one, two and three respectively.)  I suppose we can expect a little less from MVP Joe Mauer and the Twins still are going to give some at bats to Delmon Young.  Still, you have to admit the Twins have improved their offense. 

The big mystery is the aforementioned Target Field.  Past years, the Twins held a distinct home field advantage and knew exactly how to tailor their club to the Metrodome.  Now, it’s anyone’s guess. 


Quick Summary

The division still belongs to the Twins who were able to upgrade an already solid offense.  The Sox could pose a threat with their rotation, but haven’t replaced the power they lost when Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome left as free agents.   It feels like the Tigers are looking toward the future and the Indians are hoping a pitching staff cobbled together with spit and duct tape holds up. 

The Royals haven’t done much to improve their team but it’s not difficult to envision a scenario where they finish third.  That’s an optimistic, if everything goes right, best-case scenario finish.

So here’s my predicted order of finish in the Central.  I’ll revisit this about a week before the season starts and make changes as necessary before submitting my final selection just prior to Opening Day.

1. Twins
2. White Sox
3. Tigers
4. Royals
5. Indians

Okay, let's get the 'Scott Podsednik's wife in a bikini at every game' out of the way right now.

There is a very high level of the 'winter doldrums' descending on the Royals' blogsosphere as we wait for spring training to begin.   Part of that is it is simply that time of year and part is that the Royals made a number of moves this off-season, almost none of which were of the exciting variety.

Last week, we took a quick look at my perception of the 25 man roster that is likely to break camp at the end of March.   Last Friday, the official Royals site had comments from Trey Hillman that included, but were not limited to:

• Getz will be a second baseman first, then shortstop.
• Callaspo will be at second, then short
• Fields will be a third baseman and some left field and we might throw him over to right, too.

In the discussion of trying Getz at shortstop (a position Chris claims to have played a lot 'pretty decently' in the minors), Hillman also talked about waiting for Mike Aviles to get healthy, but never once mentioned Yuniesky Betancourt.

While all that is moderately intriuging and certainly gives us indication that we might see the same lineup two days in a row, maybe three times all next year, it probably does not make many of you any more excited about 2010 then my discussion of the 25 man roster did last Monday.

So, today, what wouldmake you excited?   Let me focus that a little more:  what ONE move could be made by the Royals that would get you excited about 2010?   This move could be an acquisition, a signing, maybe even just a position change or promotion of a minor leaguer.   Is there one?

While no one move is going to vault this team into contention, I think it might be possible to at least raise hopes that we have something to look forward to in 2010 besides Zack Greinke every fifth day and hoping to avoid 100 losses.   Maybe there is no one move that will generate interest beyond the usual anticipation of a new season, but throw some out there because I want to be interested.