Royals Authority - A Kansas City Royals Blog
What's In A Number
Written by Craig Brown   
Thursday, 14 January 2010 00:00
The Royals hired Ned Yost as a special advisor to baseball operations.  What exactly does this mean?  According to Dayton Moore:

“He'll be a resource for our Major League staff and our Minor League Department.  He'll do some scouting for us as well.”

I still don’t know what he’s going to do (outside of the scouting part) but I’m of the opinion the Royals need as many people they can get on their staff who know about playing baseball at the major league level.  That alone makes this a decent hire. 

Of course, any time a team hires a former manager, the rumblings start about so-and-so being a potential replacement for the current guy.  I suppose that’s inevitable.  After all, didn’t we say the exact same thing when John Gibbons was hired to be Trey Hillman’s bench coach? 

If Hillman gets the axe, I don’t think it matters one bit that guys like Gibbons and Yost are already in the organization.  The general manager will interview and hire whomever he thinks is the best option available.

Besides, are you sure you want Yost as a manager?  He picked up a reputation as a guy who couldn’t seal the deal in Milwaukee back in ’07, earning the nickname of “Nervous Ned.”  His handling of his team over the final eight games of the year - games where he was ejected three times - called into question his temperament and whether he could handle the pressures of a pennant race.  Included in that run was a crucial game against the Cardinals where the Brewers were throwing at Albert Pujols.   And don’t forget, he was fired in mid September of 2008 - with his team in the pennant race.

Wow.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement for future employment.

So let’s not be so quick to jump on “our next manager” bandwagon.  Although he was on Bobby Cox's staff in Atlanta.  Of course.

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FanFest continues to take shape.  On Wednesday the Royals announced David Cone would be making an appearance and would be signing at an autograph session with Zack Greinke and Bret Saberhagen on Friday from 3:30 to 4:30.  Uhhh, do you recognize a common theme here?

Remember what I said about me not being interested in waiting in line for autographs?  Now I'm rethinking my philosophy.  This is probably the coolest collection of signatures you could have on a baseball if you’re a Royals fan.  

Cone is an awesome guy as well.  Just one of my absolute all time favorites.  Of course he’s more of a New Yorker now, so it’s a huge get for the Royals that he’s coming out for this. 

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Proof that it’s a slow news day… I’m about to comment on Royals uniform numbers.  As noted at the Scout bulletin board, the Royals roster on their home page has been updated to include current numbers on the backs of the unis. 

Personally, I don’t get caught up in the whole, “So and so switched his number from last year,” discussion.  (Although according to a poster, Jose Guillen is now wearing #6.  His old #11 went to Josh Fields.  Honestly, if someone hadn’t pointed this out, I wouldn’t have noticed.)

But now here’s the fun part:  Trey Hillman’s number next year?  If the Royals own website it to be believed, it’s 88.  Yes, 88.  Or four times his number from last year.

Here is the comprehensive list of ballplayers who have worn the number 88:

The New York Mets batboy in 1988.

Albert Belle with the Baltimore Orioles.

I’m sure there is a reason for the switch.  Maybe it’s his wife’s lucky number.  Or one of his kids was born on August 8.  Perhaps he always wanted to be a NFL wide receiver.  It  could have something to do with astrology.  Is it possible he drives an Oldsmobile 88?  Maybe he thought Al Pacino was great in the movie 88 Minutes. 

Or maybe Hillman is just one strange dude.

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More Podsednik and Get Ready For FanFest
Written by Craig Brown   
Tuesday, 12 January 2010 00:00
OK, so I’m a little late getting this up, but the Scott Podsednik contract is surprisingly a one year deal.  Surprising because I had convinced myself that Dayton Moore was in the business of doubling whatever the going rate was for a player he was interested in signing.  Maybe it was just my way to explain how the general manager of my team awarded two years to a 36 year old catcher.  But when you get right down to it, how do you explain insanity? 

Anyway, on to the Royals new leadoff man...

-- The contract contains a club option for 2011 that vests into a mutual option if Podsednik reaches 525 plate appearances.  I know I’m making a giant assumption here, but I have to think the guy is a one and done.  If he has a good year (I’m on the record as saying that’s highly unlikely) he’s gone because he’ll find some other huckleberry to overpay.  (Hello, Brian Sabean!)  And if he doesn’t have a good year, the Royals won’t bring him back.  Hey, they did it with Mike Jacobs, so it can happen here.

Since he’s going to bat leadoff, I think the only way he doesn’t hit this mark is if he’s injured.  Let’s just assume he has a mutual option.  (Technically, I should add it’s not a true mutual option.  Podsednik has the opportunity to void the 2011 option.  Apparently, there’s a difference.)

--  Podsednik is set to earn $1.65 million next year with the opportunity to earn another $250k in incentives.  Those haven’t been made public as of yet, but given the Royals track record, you have to believe it’s based on games played or plate appearances or some wacky combination of both.  And I would hazard a guess that whatever the incentives are, they will be easily attainable. 

--  His buyout is $100k, which is a fair rate for the amount of cash he’ll take home next summer.

So we’re left with a one year deal where he’ll likely clear around $2 million.  It’s not an obscene amount of money and it’s a short term deal.  Hmmmm, where have I heard that before?  Oh yeah, when the Royals signed Kendall.  Or when they traded for Betancourt.  Or when they signed Willie Bloomquist. 

Taken individually, any one of these deals can be seen as harmless.  Misguided, yes.  But not enough to harm the franchise.  (Except Betancourt.  He’s beyond awful.)  However, taken together - and we have to take them together - it’s contributing to the stagnation that is the Kansas City Royals.

Dayton Moore is nickel and diming the Royals to 95 losses and last place in the Central.

And do you see the pattern here?  Lacking depth in the organization, the Royals needed a shortstop last summer when Aviles had the Tommy John.  Moore somehow settled on Betancourt.  Lacking depth in the organization, the Royals needed to get a catcher this winter after choosing to part with Miguel Olivo and John Buck.  Moore somehow settled on Kendall.  And now, the Royals who feel they lack depth in the organization in center field (more on this in a moment) decide they need a center fielder.  They settle on Podsednik.

Here’s a couple of things I don’t get about the Podsednik signing, then I’ll move on:

--  First, why sign Brian Anderson to a major league deal if you’re going to bring in Podsednik a few weeks later?  Anderson is a poor man’s Podsednik.  You don’t need both.

--  Second, why not play Mitch Maier out there and see what happens?  He’s better defensively than Podsednik.  Podsednik is probably faster, he’s going to steal more bases although his stolen base success rate hasn’t been impressive.  (I said on Friday that I thought he was probably an OK baserunner, but a 69% success rate on steals isn’t going to help a team.)  And I’d bet that if you gave both players 500+ at bats, they would have roughly the same OBP and slugging percentage.  Podsednik would likely have the overall edge in the slash stats, but I’m thinking it would be extremely close. 

Statistically, the gap is narrow.  However, Podsednik is going to make roughly $1.5 million more than Maier.  Now if you’re the general manager, you have to ask yourself, “Would Podsednik’s production be worth the extra $1.5 million?”  Somehow, Dayton Moore decided the answer was, “Yes.”

Sigh.

A couple other Royals notes:

-- FanFest is approaching.  It’s this weekend at the Overland Park Convention Center.  Any readers going? 

I went last year and thought it was well done.  Lots of activities, stuff for the kids, some cool things to see.  However, it seems to me that it’s one of those things where you go once every three or four years and you’re all set.  (I should add that autographs hold zero appeal for me and standing in lines holds less than zero appeal.  Autograph lines are my personal “perfect storm” to avoid.) 

They’re rolling out the ’85 team, which is always good to see, but that was 25 years ago.  It’s gone from, “Hey, let’s celebrate the title, that was awesome,” to just being kind of depressing.  At this point, only one other team has gone longer without making the postseason.  Do you think they’ll ever do the same thing for the ’93 team or the ’03 team?  Nah, me neither.

--  The Royals signed 39 year old Matt Herges to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.  He’s pitched in the majors for part of 11 seasons that can be broken down like this:  Three really good years, five OK years and three not so good years. 

In other words, how he does is anyone’s guess.  But it can’t hurt to give him a minor league contract and a shot.  He can’t be worse than Yasuhiko Yabuta or Victor Marte.

--  Baseball America unveiled the Top 10 Royals prospects highlighted by Mike Montgomery at number one.  I’m sure Clark will have more on this later in the week.  A question to ponder:  Should we be concerned that of the 10 players named, only one of them (David Lough at #10) appeared in a game above High A Ball?

And if they had ranked Noel Arguelles - he would have come in at #3 - Lough would have been knocked down to #11.

BA gives the Royals and Dayton Moore high marks for improving the depth of the minors, with the pitching prospects collectively taking the greatest step forward. 

--  And finally, Sean at 124 Monkeys tries to understand Dayton Moore.  Believe me, life is easier once you stop doing that.  And Royals Primacy finds something positive in the Podsednik signing.

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Royals To Sign Podsednik
Written by Craig Brown   
Friday, 08 January 2010 10:12

Maybe I need to actually listen to those Hot Stove shows on 610.  I mean, come on... Who would have thought anything meaningful would have come from a conversation between Dayton Moore and Ryan Lefebvre?  Thankfully, Will at Royals Review listened, and he posted last night that Dayton revealed the Royals were close to signing a "speedy outfielder" and speculated it was Scott Podsednik.

Kudos to Will for nailing this one, as ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reported the Royals will announce the signing of Podsednik following a physical on Friday.

Podsednik will be 34 next March has based his time in the majors entirely on his legs.  That's why I'm betting that Moore signed him to a two year deal.  Of course, that would be insane.  That's why I think it will be for two years.  Yes, this is all speculation on my part.  I'm sure details will trickle out soon.

Podsednik's best offensive year of his career came in 2003 - his rookie season.  That year in Milwaukee, he hit .314/.379/.443 with an OPS+ of 116.  Those numbers all remain career highs.  Defensively, he's not very good.  Yes, he's fast, but he has a weak arm and doesn't cover as much ground as you might think. His UZR/150 over the last three seasons was: 6.5, -17.0, -2.3.  The Royals will obviously use him in center, but he was primarily a left fielder for the Sox.  So it all fits together...

Best year of his career more than five years ago?  Check.

Bounce back year the previous season?  Check.

Not a regular at the position where the Royals will use him?  Check.

Speed?  Check.

Steve Rosenbloom, a beat writer for the Chicago Tribune had this to say about Pods in his end of the year blog:

"What does it say when a guy who’s bad on defense and worse as a baserunner considering his speed is the best this team can do at leadoff?"

Wow.  I wonder what he's talking about when he mentions baserunning.  According to Bill James, Pods took home from second base on a single 12 out of 16 opportunities.  That's really good.  He made only three outs on the bases all year.  (That figure obviously doesn't count caught stealing.  Sometimes, Billy Butler can make three outs on the bases in a single game.)  He was rated as a +12 on the bases last summer and has consistently posted positive figures on base running net gain.  There are a ton of reasons not to like this signing, but I think we'll be fine with his baserunning.  If he can get on base.

Last year, Pods had a 1.7 WAR.  CHONE has him projected at .271/.333/.367 next year with a 0.7 WAR in over 400 at bats.

More details as they become available...


Read 20 Comments... >>
 
Waiting Game
Written by Craig Brown   
Thursday, 07 January 2010 00:00
It’s been quiet at the K, but that’s to be expected.  With little room left in the budget - and little affordable quality on the market - there’s really nothing to do but wait. 

This seems to be the Dayton Moore way.  He likes to strike early, make a free agent signing or two at the Winter Meetings and then sit back and make a move or two close to spring training.  Personally, I wish he wouldn’t act so fast right out of the gate (i.e. the Jacobs trade last year and the Fields/Getz deal this year) but that’s just the way he is.  I kind of like the boldness of jumping right out of the gate, but it obviously didn’t work last year.  We’ll see how it goes this summer, but I have my doubts.

As Moore points out, there will still be plenty of talent available when camps open in February.  The basic economic laws of supply and demand tell us that the longer a free agent remains on the market, the lower his price will drop.  At least it’s supposed to work that way.  I’m currently working on an article for The Hardball Times examining what the lower payroll teams are doing to their teams this off season and a majority are hanging back, waiting for the prices to drop.  However, with a number of teams playing the waiting game, I wonder if those prices will drop as much as some GMs expect.  It’s conceivable we could see bidding wars for those second and third tier free agents in mid February as teams scramble to fill the final holes in the roster. 

It’s certainly a drag to have to wait when your team’s top moves have been a no-hit catcher, a potential power hitter with no position and a weak hitting second baseman.  It would be a hell of a lot more fun if the Royals had been able to splash the cash on a real free agent once again.  Even a bust like Jose Guillen.  He’s much more interesting than Jason Kendall. 

A couple of links to tide you over through the weekend…

Kevin Appier garnered one Hall of Fame vote.  I suspect Kaegel.  Daniel Moroz on how Appier was a better pitcher than Jack Morris.

A lot of teams are stockpiling pitchers by signing assorted arms to minor league contracts with spring training invites.  As Matt Klaassen points out, the Indians are grabbing some bats on similar minor league deals.

Former Royals catcher Brent Mayne on the Cardinals signing Matt Holliday.  Key line: “I’m pretty sure the Cards outbid the Cards by about 30 mill.” Love it.
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If Everything Went Right - Part 3
Written by Clark Fosler   
Wednesday, 06 January 2010 09:39

We are back for part three of our series with the focus today being on the middle infield.

In preparing to write this column, I made an honest effort to see the 'everything goes right' upside to Yuniesky Betanacourt.   Despite an honest effort, the best I can come up with is that Betancourt at least does not suck the next couple of years.   Yuniesky's highest on-base percentage of his career is just .310 and his best OPS just .725:  heck, even Angel Berroa had one good year to hang his hat on.   Further, is it truly logical to believe that, six years into his major league career, that Betancourt will actually become the defensive master that Dayton Moore so wants us to believe he already is?

Now, Betancourt's place in our 'everything goes right' scenario is that Dayton Moore 'gets right' and Mike Aviles gets healthy.   The best case for 2010 is that Aviles comes back from arm surgery, plays as he did in 2008 and forces his way back into the everyday shortstop job.  Aviles may not hold up defensively as well as he did in his rookie year, but would certainly seem to be adequate to man shortstop for the remainder of 2010 and part of 2011.

On the other side of the bag, the Royals went out and got Chris Getz from the White Sox despite having their second best hitter, Alberto Callaspo occupying this position.    I have been working on the game by game season summary for the upcoming 2010 Royals Authority Annual and it is amazing how often the recap of a game mentions a defensive miscue by Callaspo.   I certainly remember Alberto being downright awful in the field, but I had forgotten how much and how often his defensive shortcomings came into play during the 2009 season.

That single fact has reinforced my feeling that the Royals have to put Getz at second base, hope his defense improves over his rookie season and see if he can develop into an above average offensive player at second (as have seven other current regular second basemen with similarly unimpressive minor league resumes).   

I am not sure exactly what you do with Callaspo.   Given that the outfield heavy Orioles rejected a Callaspo for Felix Pie deal, you can see that Alberto's current trade value does not match up with what you, me and Dayton Moore might have expected for a plus .800 OPS middle infielder.   The Royals could go unconventional and DH Alberto, take a gamble and try him in left field (pushing DeJesus to right) or, knowing 2010 is probably a lost cause anyway, play him at second for a few months in hopes of getting better trade return as the season unfolds.   At any rate, by the second half of the season, the best case scenario is a middle infield of Mike Aviles (playing competent defense and posting a 2008-esque line) and Chris Getz (playing above average defense, stealing bases and smacking doubles).

Do you contend with a middle infield of Aviles and Getz?  I am not exactly sure, but remember, everything is going right for the Royals.  That means Jeff Bianchi (who will just be 23 years old in 2010 by the way) will have parlayed his .307/.356/.435 line of 2009 into big numbers to start the year in AA and continued them upon a mid-season promotion to Omaha.   Along the way, the hope has to be that Bianchi can stick defensively at shortstop and be in a position to push Aviles into a super utility role as early as the beginning of 2011.

At the same time, second baseman Johnny Giavotella, will have torn up AA pitching in 2010.   Remember, even though his second professional campaign was not as impressive as his rookie year, Giavotella still walked more than he struck out in High A, had 38 extra base hits and 26 steals, not to mention a .351 on-base percentage despite hitting just .258.    Since he will be 22 in 2010, Johnny may get some time in Omaha late next year and certainly start off the 2011 season just a phone call from the majors.

Behind this group of players, the Royals have 20 year old Fernando Garcia, who posted a .392 on-base percentage playing second base the Burlington Bees last year and talented 18 year old shortstop Yowill Espinal who began to show power and speed in his second season of rookie ball.   Both could conceivably advance quickly through the system if they continue to show improvement and provide the Royals something of a 'Milwaukee scenario' where the Brewers enjoyed the flexibility to deal J.J. Hardy as he was pushed out of his job by young Alcides Escobar.

The reemergence of Bianchi has given the Royals some hope for real improvement either at second or short over the next couple of years.  Frankly, the panic to acquire Betancourt seems more foolhardy with every line I write.     Did the Royals really need to make such a daring move with a finally healthy Bianchi hitting and Mike Aviles simply an injury removed from hitting .325?   Whether Dan Cortes or Derrick Saito ever develop into major leaguers is irrelevant:  the Royals did not need to waste the time or the money on Betancourt.

That said, in our 'everyting goes right' scenario, Yuniesky Betancourt becomes nothing more than an expensive footnote as Aviles comes back healthy and effective, and some combination of Bianchi, Getz and Giavotella develop into a well above average middle infield combination.


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Do You Want Answers?
Written by Craig Brown   
Tuesday, 05 January 2010 00:00

A new year means it’s time to look ahead.  Dick Kaegel over at Royals.com has 10 questions about the upcoming year and gives his answers.  Of course, Kaegel’s answers range from the absurd to the insane, so I’m not going to bother to comment on those.  Instead, I thought I would take those questions and give honest, unfiltered answers.  The kind us Royals fans deserve.

1. Will this finally be the year the Royals can get over .500 and possibly even contend?

The short answer:  No.  The long answer:  No way. 

The Royals have only marginally improved the defense but these moves have come at the expense of the offense.  If the Royals decide to jettison Alberto Callaspo in favor of Chris Getz, the lineup will be even worse.  They scored the 13th fewest runs in the league last year.  They’ll be 14th this year. 

Pitching-wise, behind Greinke there are more question marks than ever.  Is Meche healthy?  Can Bannister withstand the rigors of a full slate of starts?  How many chances will the Royals waste on Davies and Hochevar?

I don’t think Dayton Moore has done anything to make this team better and the argument can be made that he’s actually made it worse.

2. Can Greinke have another Cy Young-type season, or was that just a fluke?

Greinke fulfilled the promise he’s possessed since becoming the Royals first round selection in 2002.  He was awesome last summer and there’s no reason to think he can’t replicate his success in 2010.  Greinke may not win the Cy Young next season, but there’s absolutely no reason to fear a decline in his performance.

Easiest question of the bunch.  Next!

3. Is Butler the type of player who can be a forceful offensive leader for the team?

Forceful offensive leader?  Why does he need to be forceful?  He was the offensive leader on this team last year, so there’s no reason to think he can’t do it again.

I’ve said it time and again, Butler was the Royals biggest surprise last year.  His work ethic was outstanding and the payoff was apparent.  As long as he doesn’t get fat and happy and slack off, he’ll be fine.

I can't resist this... in his answer Kaegel said Butler didn't resemble  "the flint-eyed warrior who'll lead the troops up San Juan Hill."  Flint-eyed warrior?  Way to drop a 110 year old, Teddy Roosevelt reference on the internet.

4. Can DeJesus be the inspirational leader that every winning team seems to need?

I know I'm not supposed to answer a question with a question, but "inspirational leader?"  Who comes up with this stuff?

Anyway, I’ve never seen DeJesus as a leader.  He just doesn’t seem like the guy who will pull younger players aside and he definitely won’t get in someone’s face, a la Guillen.  Perhaps he could lead by example, but that’s hardly inspirational. 

Tenure does not equate to leadership.  Nor should it.

I can’t believe I even discussed this.

5. If the Royals nosedive early next season, will manager Trey Hillman's job be in jeopardy?

Clearly, the most interesting question of the 10. 

Under normal circumstances, I would say yes.  However, this is not your normal team.  Nor is it your normal organization. 

First, there’s Dayton Moore and his loyalty to his troops.  Part of me finds this refreshing that Moore will give his employees every chance to succeed (or fail.)  We’ve seen far too many pitching coaches, hitting coaches and other assorted personnel through the team’s recent history.  Moore has said consistency is important, and that’s a concept I can certainly get behind.  However, there’s always the danger of sticking with someone for too long.  More on that in a moment.

Second, there’s the fact that this team won’t be expected to contend.  As things currently stand, a repeat of last year’s 97 losses isn’t out of the realm of possibility.  In fact, it’s more likely than an 87 loss season.  Low expectations have saved more than one manager in the past.

Taking these two points combined, it’s not difficult to see Hillman finishing the season - no matter how the team fares in April and May.  Despite this, there is a danger of sticking with Hillman for too long.  For the Royals and given their expectations, the wins and losses become almost secondary.  Of much more importance is how Hillman evolves as a manager.  That is to say, how he fills out his lineup card, handle his starters and his bullpen and use his entire roster.   The first two years don’t give me much hope for year three.

I don’t think he gets the axe during the season.  Ask me again in July if I think he’ll manage in 2011.

6. Why don't the Royals use Soria's great talents as a starter rather than as a closer?

Ahhh, an oldie but a goodie.  A couple of years ago I argued that Soria should be in the rotation given that he possesses just nasty stuff and starters are inherently more valuable than closers.  However, as Soria has evolved, it’s become pretty clear that he doesn’t have the variety to survive as a starter.  Yes, he’s an excellent pitcher, but with only two plus pitches he doesn’t have the repertoire needed to be a quality starter.  He's better suited as a reliever.

Kaegel cites Soria’s injury history as a reason to keep him in the bullpen, but that’s just an old baseball canard. 

Really, the Royals should think about shopping him to a team desperate for bullpen help.  Soria’s value on a second division team like the Royals is negligible. 

7. Will the renovated and improved Kauffman Stadium continue to be a drawing card, as it seemed to be in its first year?

There is no argument in the fact the Royals had a great year at the gate.  They averaged 22,496 fans which was their best showing since 1994.  In 2008, the Royals had nine games where they drew 30,000+ fans.  In 2009, that number almost doubled to 17. 

Impressive gains all around, but history shows that when perennially losing teams move into a new ballpark, they quickly surrender the gains they made in their first year.  Pittsburgh lost 8,000 off their average from the first to second year at PNC Park.  The Brewers lost 10,000 off their average.  The Tigers dropped 6,000.  And remember, these totals are for new ballparks.  The K was renovated - and not very well in my opinion.  The “gotta see it” factor is long gone.  In fact, it probably disappeared after the first month of the season.  The Royals will still draw around 30,000+ for 15 or so games, The Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals and Greinke starts along with the odd Buck Night will again be the big tickets.  They'll average around 21k.

8. Now that Teahen has been traded, who'll take over as host of "The Mark Teahen Show" on the giant Crown Vision HD board?

I think that Zack Greinke is the player best suited to host.  But I think it should still be called “The Mark Teahen Show.”  Ken Harvey and Chip Ambres should co-host.

9. Which player will be the biggest surprise of the 2010 season?

In an attempt to surrender his last shred of credibility, Kaegel picks Betancourt.  I know I said I wasn’t going to discuss his answers, but this was just so crazy, I had to mention it. 

Myself, I’ll go for Juan Cruz.  I think he bounces back and becomes a credible set-up man for Soria.  Last year’s top surprise was Butler.  Look at the roster.  Is there anyone who can possibly come close to what he did for his “surprise?”  I don’t think so.

10. Where will the Royals finish next season?

As things currently stand, they’ll finish last place with 67 wins.


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If Everything Went Right - Part II
Written by Clark Fosler   
Saturday, 02 January 2010 09:38

Last Monday, we took a look at an 'everything works out scenario' regarding the future of the Kansas City Royals' outfield.   Our look into the future was not a fantastical journey in that we attempted to be realistic (if not rather optimistic) in what a player's potential might be.

What we ended up with was an outfield that was pretty marginal in 2010, decent in 2011 and good, but lacking in star quality, in 2012.   Today, we look at the infield.

Unlike the outfield, this group has two different futures or maybe, concurrent futures is more precise.   The Royals can look at their projected 2010 infield and, rightly or wrongly, say their infield of the future is already in place.  In our 'everything goes right' world, the Royals, for once, are right.

Whether it is first base or designated hitter, Billy Butler emerged in 2009 as a real impact bat:  posting an OPS of .853 and an OPS+ of 124.   His second half line of .314/.385/.540 might well be an indication of the kind of numbers Butler will put up for the better part of this new decade.   Of all the 'everything goes right' scenarios we will play out in this series, Butler's may be the most likely to come true.   

The other corner is, of course, occupied by Alex Gordon.   To date, Gordon has shown flashes of potential, but had his supposed 'breakout season' derailed by injury in 2009 (not to mention curious handling by the organization).    The Royals have been waiting for everything to go right with Gordon since drafting him in 2005.   It is still not out of the question for Gordon to 'get it' in 2010 and surge towards that .300/.400/.500 line everyone projected years ago.  

Truthfully, the real plan of both Allard Baird and Dayton Moore has centered around Billy Butler and Alex Gordon both becoming feared bats in the middle of the Kansas City order.   Should Gordon at last emerge, Kansas City will have their number three and four hitters for the next four years if not longer.

That brings up an interesting problem for the organization as their two best hitting prospects happen to also play first and third base.   In our sunshine and roses scenario, Mike Moustakas becomes a big time power hitting prospect.   To date, Moustakas has played a pretty bad defensive third base, so it will be interesting to see if he can stick at that position.  Additionally, his body type is looking less and less like one that could make a move to a corner outfield spot.  

Still, if Mike slugs 30 home runs in AA in 2010 and another 30 in AAA in 2011 (along with an on-base percentage somewhere north of .375) is it the worst thing in the world to bring him up to DH?    In our everything goes right world, I see Moustakas being a Jim Thome type hitter (and probably a Jim Thome type fielder as well!) from 2012 through 2017.  If we really are being optimistic, Moustakas becomes a competent third baseman and gives the Royals flexibility when free agency looms for Butler, Greinke and Gordon.

The heir apparent at the other corner is Eric Hosmer.   His future is still all projection and no actual success (even Moustakas had a very nice year in 2008 to give us hope).   The flip-side, of course, is that Hosmer has not played enough to truly discredit those projections, either.   Given this column's angle, we sure as heck are not going to do anything to change that. 

There is a school of thought that Hosmer could play an corner outfield spot.  Ideally, Hosmer becomes a power hitting on-base machine while exhibiting enough athleticism to slide into right field for the start of the 2013 season (if not sooner).   What if Butler, Gordon, Moustakas AND Hosmer all reached the lofty potential that is or has been projected for them?

At best, the Royals would generate enough revenue to line those four up in the middle of their batting order and simply overwhelm other teams.   Even if the revenue is not there, Kansas City would be in the enviable position of having four big time bats to play two or maybe three positions:  allowing them to ship a rapidly more expensive Butler and/or Gordon off for multiple high level prospects while barely skipping a beat when it came to their own offensive firepower.

If the above is not enough, we have not even discussed the possibility of Kila Ka'aihue getting an actual chance at some point in 2010 and parlaying that into a .390 on-base percentage with some power.   If not Kila, then maybe Clint Robinson, who has slugged 45 home runs in three minor league seasons, will emerge over the next season and one-half to push for playing time in the majors.   Perhaps we might witness the organization's highest profile Latin American signee, Cheslor Cuthbert, emerge at third base sooner rather than later, to enter the mix.

If 'everything went right', the Royals would be flush with hitters at the corners.    While Kansas City has made a habit of collecting 'bodies' that play first, third and DH, they have not been overly successful in collecting bonafide hitters.   Maybe, just maybe, the organization's luck is about to change.

This post was originally going to encompass the middle infielders, too, but it has run on a little long today.   Later this week, we will examine Chris Getz, Yuniesky Betancourt and the rest of the potential middle infielders.

 


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Here's To 2010
Written by Craig Brown   
Thursday, 31 December 2009 00:00
Another year in the books.  I hope your 2009 was better than the Royals.

I guess this is supposed to be the post where we recap the previous year.  But who in their right mind would want to relive that?  Perhaps we could go big picture and look at the entire decade.  Eh… Pass.

Even thinking about thinking about the last 10 years leads me to question my sanity in following this team.  I can’t give them up since it’s ingrained in my DNA, but are others jumping the ship?  As the year comes to a close comes the news the Royals cancelled their annual Fantasy Camp.  Actually, there wasn’t anything official about the cancellation because the Royals don’t publicize their failures… Posnanski tweeted about it a few weeks ago as he was gearing up to give away a spot in the camp on his website. 

(Of course, I have to drop the obligatory “It’s the economy” line here.  Certainly that’s a factor.  But do you think the Royals would have difficulty filling the spots if they were even a .500 organization?)

One last question about the decade before moving along… Were the Royals the worst team in baseball in the ‘00s?  It’s a subjective question that has no correct answer.  But it’s a question that needs to be asked.  If only because people are so damn intent on picking the Team Of The Decade.  I mean, if you’re going to pick the best, don’t you have to tip your hat to the worst as well?  ESPN’s Jim Caple does a nice enough job breaking down the five contenders and ultimately settles on the Montreal Expo/Washington National disaster.  The reasoning is sound, but that situation was so uniquely manipulated by Selig and his cronies that I wonder if they should even be included in this discussion.  Perhaps they deserve their own separate honor.

Back to the Royals… Their record of 672-948 with only one winning season vaults them to the head (or is it the back?) of the class in my opinion.  An argument can be made for the Pirates, who never had a winning season (17 and counting!) but finishing with the fewest overall wins in the decade like the Royals did is truly special.

Damn.  I said I wasn’t going to focus on the last decade, didn’t I?  Sorry.

Looking ahead, we have a few things percolating at Royals Authority HQ that will trickle out over the next few weeks and months that we’re hopeful you’ll enjoy.  First up will be the Royals Authority 2010 Annual.  Progress is being made and we’re targeting early Spring Training for the second edition.  We’ve lined up a few smart collaborators so we’re confident in saying that the new edition will be the best one yet!  (How is that for marketing?  This will only be our second one.)  Start collecting the coins from between the cushions in your couch.

Speaking of money, did you know that Omar Minaya is Spanish for Dayton Moore?  The Mets gave what kind of contract to Jason Bay?  Do you think they’ll regret it in Queens in 2013 when Bay is struggling to put up Jose Guillen type numbers?

Arrrrrgh.  So that’s it?  This winter is so boring and bereft of anything remotely interesting it would appear I’ve been reduced to commenting on another team’s bone-headed moves.  I’ve been writing about the Royals in this space for around five years and I’ve never seen an off-season as dry as this one.  I guess that’s what happens when the GM renders his payroll inflexible after a string of bizarre trades and free agent signings.  Signings like the Jason Kendall and Brian Anderson deals are so predictable, uninspired and downright wrong, that there hardly seems to be any reason to analyze them.  But we do.  Because we love baseball and we love the Royals (despite all of their faults) and we have a ton of fun following both.

Here's to the new year. May she be a damn sight better than the last one
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What If Everything Went Right? - Part 1
Written by Clark Fosler   
Monday, 28 December 2009 10:39

When it comes to player development, the Royals have not been exactly blessed with either good judgment or good fortune.  There is some hope that the Dayton Moore administration will have better luck in both areas, but the current track record is not pointing towards any strokes of genius just yet.

Still, it is the holiday season, so let's put a little magic into the mix and play the what if game.   My next couple of posts will review the minor league system and pretend that pretty much everything goes right for the Royals over the next three years.    While we are certainly taking some license with the good fortune portion of this exercise, we will try to be realistic in the end result (i.e. not every player is going to be an All-Star).

Today, we will start with what I perceive to be the current weakest place on the major league roster:  the outfield.

The Royals might well open the season with Mitch Maier as their everyday centerfielder.   Last year, splitting time between the majors and AAA, Mitch put up a combined line of 253/342/352.    Maier has a career minor league slugging percentage of .458, but has displayed a curious lack of any power whatsoever at the big league level.   If everything went right, Maier would play an above average centerfield, slug somewhere over .400 and become something of a poor man's David DeJesus.  

While I like DeJesus a lot, the poor man's version of him is barely major league average (probably not even that), but it would be enough to allow the Royals to not panic in their attempts to find a long term answer in center.   That's because their centerfielder of the future might be 'breaking out' in AA in 2009.   That person (remember EVERYTHING is going right) is Derrick Robinson.

Robinson posted another sub-par line last year in High A (239/290/324) but slugged all five of his home runs in the last month of the season.   He has tremendous speed and athleticism (69 steals) that have brought comparisons to Kenny Lofton.  Even in our perfect world, I do not see Robinson becoming a Lofton, but could he be another Carlos Gomez?  

If everything goes right, Derrick is able to continue that late season power surge and slugg somewhere near .400 and up his average and on-base percentage into the .280/.340 zone.   With his speed, that might be enough to warrant a late season promotion to Omaha where Robinson would be poised to parlay a hot start and continued improvement in 2011 into an early summer promotion to Kansas City.   The hope is that by Opening Day of 2012, Robinson is settled into the lead-off position, hitting with enough power to keep the defense honest, being smart enough at the plate to use his speed to post an on-base percentage north of .350 and tracking down virtually every ball hit in the alley.

Also by 2012, the Royals might well have the toolsy Hilton Richardson and Alex Llanos pushing their way up into AA and AAA.  Both might well have more upside than Robinson when it comes to both power and on-base ability.   The positive development of Robinson, Richardson and Llanos would provide the Royals with both long-term stability in centerfield at the major league level as well as possible trading chips as early as 2011 and even a left field solution in 2012.

However, left field might not need a solution come 2012.   After all, the Royals will have the capable DeJesus in 2010 and could certainly pick up his option in 2011 once the Guillen contract is off the books.   That might not be necessary if 'everything goes right' with David Lough.  

After hitting an impressive 16 home runs in Burlington, Iowa two seasons ago, Lough exploded all over High A ball (320/370/473) and then AA (331/371/517) in 2009.    David will fill up the stat sheet with doubles, triples, homers and steals and in four minor league stops has hit less than .300 just once (that being in the aforementioned Burlington where no one seems to hit .300).  I can see Lough getting major league action somewhere after the All-Star Break this coming season:  probably in a platoon situation with Jordan Parraz.

After solid debuts in both AAA and the Majors in 2010, Lough might well be given the left field job in 2011.   If not, the Royals could pick up the DeJesus option, and use Lough in both left and right (he even plays some center if need be) while they shop DeJesus to a desperate contender during the 2011 season.   By late 2011, if not sooner, Lough will be settled in as the everyday leftfielder, posting lines on the order of .310/.370/.480 for the next four or five seasons.

Over in rightfield, we have already mentioned the 'everything is going right' future solution:  Jordan Parraz.   Proving that you can trade nothing (Tyler Lumsden) for something, Parraz had a nice, but injury plagued 2009, posting a 348/432/541 line in AA and AAA.    With any luck, Parraz leaps out of the gate in AAA this spring with similar numbers and forces his way into the rightfield job for the Royals sooner rather than later. 

The Royals are the Royals, though, and they will want to defer to the whims of Jose Guillen's psyche, see what Brian Anderson has to offer and certainly need the grit of Willie Bloomquist in right at times, but Parraz will hopefully hit his way through all that nonsense and get steady time in right.   Again, a second half platoon of Parraz/Lough might serve both players well as they acclimate to the bigs and set Parraz up to bat sixth and play right everyday in 2011.

The upside of Parraz may not include enough power to totally lock down right for years to come.  Although I do foresee him cruising along somewhere right near his career minor league numbers (294/381/445 - hopefully a little more 'slug'), which will be more than enough to be upgrade over virtually everyone who has played the position for Kansas City since Jermaine Dye.  

The hope would be that one of the youngsters in the low minors or a draft pick yet to be made develops into the traditional slugging rightfielder and pushes Parraz out of a job by 2013 or so.   Perhaps it would be a college draftee that pulls a Mike Aviles (circa 2008 not 2009) like Carlo Testa or Nick Van Stratten or it could be a Luis Del Rosario or Geulin Beltre type who breaks out in the near future to become a legitimate prospect.  At any rate, a 2012 outfield of Lough-Robinson-Parraz (again, assuming they perform as set out above) would easily be the best outfield top to bottom since the days of Damon-Beltran-Dye.   

Two problems, of course.  

First, that is 2012.  Not one, not two, but three years away.   Second, that is a whole lot of 'everything going right' and it still leaves the Royals with an outfield of three very good players but maybe not any 'great' players.    Frankly, if I were to take a straight out shot-in-the-dark-flyer on any outfielder in the system becoming a regular All-Star it would likely be either Hilton Richardson or Alex Llanos:  neither of whom project to be impacting the majors much before late 2012.

Of course, if the Royals have great pitching and a couple of outright stars in the infield, an outfield of three good, but not great, players in 2012 would be enough.   Next time, we'll see just how many stars we can actually find to complement our solid outfield.


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Priority One For KC: Fill The Void in the Outfield
Written by Clark Fosler   
Wednesday, 23 December 2009 10:13

Given the state of the Kansas City Royals one can make an argument that the club's first priority could be almost anywhere but number one starter, closer and Billy Butler.   That I had to use a comma and the word 'and' to describe areas that did not need upgrades may, in itself, represent progress for this organization!

The basis behind the title of our column today rest not so much in the thought that the Royals are 'set' in other areas, but more based on just how few real options the Royals have in the outfield for the coming season.

Right or wrong, Dayton Moore has set up the catching for 2010 and, sadly, 2011 also with the signing of veteran Jason Kendall.   With Brayan Pena backing up Kendall and newly acquired Manuel Pina working in AA or AAA in 2010, the Royals are hoping they can hold the line behind the plate until Will Meyers hopefully rockets through the system.

Barring health issues, the Royals will break camp with Greinke, Meche, Bannister and Hochevar in the rotation.   They will have Aaron Crow on the horizon and the likes of Mike Montgomery and Daniel Duffy looming as rotation possibilities as early as mid-2011.   Unless they can get a cheap flyer on an Erik Bedard type veteran, Dayton Moore and company would likely be wise to waste resources on this unit.

Any bullpen that has Joakim Soria in it has a chance to be good (even if Kyle Farnsworth is in it, too).   Stung by two bad contracts last off-season to the aforementioned Farnsworth and Juan Cruz (who may yet rebound and make us re-think that signing once more), it seems unlikely that the Royals will go hog wild in the reliever market this off-season.   To this admittedly 'non-baseball man' the Royals seem to have a number of in-house relievers that are ready to be given a shot in the majors.  Really, could Rosa-Hayes-Hughes-Nicoll be any worse than Farnsworth-Cruz-Bale-Mahay were last year?

While many can find plenty of faults in the current array of infielders on the roster, there would also seem to the enough bodies/talent/potential in the mix to let it play itself out over the course of 2010.   The Royals have Billy Butler to man either first base or designated hitter and he would seemed poised to become a truly elite level hitter this season.  Alex Gordon is at the other corner and will be given at least one more season to become who we thought he was.  Plus, he could also slide over to first base with relative ease if the Royals keep and want to play Alberto Callaspo (remember those 60+ extra base hits in 2009) at third.

In addition to those three holdovers, the club also has the hated Yuniesky Betancourt at shortstop.   Like it or not, he will play everyday until Mike Aviles can prove that he is both healthy and too productive to keep out of the lineup.    Of course, the Royals also added two new bodies to the mix in the trade for Chris Getz (yes, I think he is the next Brian Roberts) and Josh Fields.   While Fields will also enter the mix in the outfield, he is a third baseman by trade.

That is seven bodies who all, with the possible exception of Betancourt, could theoretically be better than their past records indicate.  Plus, we have not even mentioned the gritty Willie Bloomquist and wily Wilson Betemit.  Truthfully, I would almost like Bloomquist if I saw him in the lineup just a couple times a week at second or short.    The masquerading Willie as a right or center fielder and everyday type player is what rankles this, and many other, observers.

Ah, Bloomquist in center.   That very thought was brought up today in the Kansas City Star as they churned out two whole paragraphs on the Brian Anderson signing.   The speculation was that Anderson, Mitch Maier and Bloomquist would be competing for playing time next year in center.    Couple that with the spectre of Jose Guillen playing in right and tell me you just didn't get a sick feeling in your stomach.

You could probably find complaint in the fact that I see potential in Chris Getz, but not in Mitch Maier and I have no real defense for that.   You could also point out that Maier had a .361 on-base percentage in the second half of 2009, but I would point out that he slugged just .346 over that same period.   That is kind of the rub with Mitch:  if he could display some of the moderate power he did coming up through the system, I'd be willing to give him center for a year and see what happens.   Perhaps playing Maier in center is the prudent course of action:  hope he continues to get on-base, finds some of his past power and becomes a low 100+ OPS guy like DeJesus.

For argument's sake, let's say that happens and the Royals have DeJesus in left hitting .285/.360/.440 and Maier in center doing something along the lines of .280/.365/.410.    Those two guys will not make you a contender in 2010, but they won't be an embarrassment, either.   You know, not like, JOSE GUILLEN IN RIGHT FIELD!

If not Guillen, who are you going to play?  Josh Fields and his 180 innings of outfield experience?   Willie Bloomquist?

I like Jordan Parraz and David Lough, but they are both in need of pretty much a full year of AAA seasoning.   There is occasional talk of playing Alex Gordon in the outfield.   Let's keep in mind that I'm pretty sure Alex has not played in the outfield since some time before he got his driver's license.   Not to mention the fact that hoping for a player to have a breakout year while at the same time moving him to a new position is probably not logical.  

There is the Callaspo factor, too, but I'm wondering just how much more range he has than our pal Jose?  

Bottom line, the Royals need an outfielder.   Two would be better, but I will settle for one and hope either Lough or Parraz develops into a legitimate major league regular by 2011.

The proposed Callaspo for Felix Pie deal was risky, but probably worth a shot.  The Orioles, however, were not biting on that one.    Michael Taylor, formerly of the Phillies, would have been nice, but he has been shipped away to greener pastures.   While I was not the first to think of it, I have become a big fan of trying to pry Chris Dickerson away from the Reds.   

The problem is simply ascertaining the worth of Alberto Callaspo as he seems to be the logical trading chip.  Yes, he was outstanding at the plate in 2009 and, honestly, there is nothing in that swing that would make a person think Alberto might not just hit .300 the rest of his life.   Still, fielding issues aside, the Royals seem to have committed to Getz at second base, with Mike Aviles, Jeff Bianchi and even Johnny Giavotella lined up behind him.   With Gordon at third and now Josh Fields, not to mention Mike Moustakas in the system, the two positions that Callaspo would logical play correspond to the deepest two positions in the organization.    Alberto is the guy the Royals can afford to move and probably gamble a little in doing it.

Would you trade Callaspo for a Trayvon Robinson of the Dodgers for example?   A real prospect who would likely start the year down in AA?   I am not sure the Dodgers are a fit, by the way, I am just using Robinson as an example of a a toolsy outfield prospect a good year away from the majors.   It has become apparent that Callaspo alone will not pry a major league ready outfielder away - the Orioles, after all, have about 18 outfielders and still would not trade the thus far underachieving Pie - but could he have enough value to get a very good propect with some development left to do?

If the Royals could get a potential star down the road, I would probably take the gamble and totally punt 2010.   Not to the point of watching the statue named Guillen play right, but certainly to the point of playing an outfield of DeJesus, Maier and Fields/Anderson (or even Buck Coats).    Especially if I truly believed either Lough or Parraz would force his way onto the Royals' roster come July or so.  

Let's assume that Lough duplicates his AA numbers (.331/.371/.517) in Omaha in 2010, how would you feel about a 2011 opening day outfield of DeJesus, Robinson (again, just as an example) and Lough?    If all it cost me was Alberto Callaspo and 62 wins instead of 68 in 2010, I would do it.

 

 


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Final AL Central

TEAM W L GB
Minnesota 87 76 --
Detroit 86 77 5.5
Chicago
79 83 7.5
Cleveland
65 97 21.5
Kansas City
65 97 21.5
There's always next year.

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