....to make a deal.

Dayton Moore has made public statements that the Royals are ready to make deals:  preferably through trades for players with zero to three years service time.

The Mark Teahen to Chicago deal was a perfect example of this philosophy.   You trade an at best average player who is starting to cost real money for two younger players with very little service time.   Sure, you run the risk that Teahen suddenly finds 2006 again, but that appears unlikely at this point.   You also run a risk of both Chris Getz and Josh Fields never panning out, but in the end, all the Royals have done is give up a year of average service on a player who they likely would not pursue in free agency to gamble on two younger players.

So, with one trade down, what would it take to for you to pull the trigger on some of the more likely trade commodities on the roster?

David DeJesus

I don't buy the argument that DeJesus is 'really just a fourth outfielder', particularly given that he was the best leftfielder in the American League Central last year.   Is he a superstar?  Certainly not.   Is he untouchable?  Definitely not.  

The problem with DeJesus is that his value to the Royals is probably high enough that the return in trade simply does not match up.  While David's contract is still reasonable, it has reached the point of not being a bargain anymore.   This is a player that is better defenisvely at his position (left field) than any other Royal is at his position.   He will post an OPS right around .800 every year, miss 20 games or so and reach the low double figures in home runs.   DeJesus is okay, above league average, but not good enough for a team to part with a top level prospect to get him.

What would it take for me to move DeJesus?  A near major league ready centerfielder who is a top tier prospect or a similar player who played in AA last year, plus a secondary prospect.  I think it is unlikely that a team parts with that booty to get a couple of years of DeJesus.  

For the Royals, somebody has to be on base in front of Billy Butler's bat.  It might as well be DeJesus.

Alberto Callaspo

The rumors of Callaspo for AAA catcher A.J. Ellis has quieted and that is simply not enough in return for a  guy who can really hit.

Still, Callaspo is a horrible defender at second base and his lack of instincts and hands makes me skeptical of a rumored move to third base.   The same lack of instincts and, in this case, foot-speed, seems to make Alberto a poor candidate for an outfield position.   All this would not be such a huge issue if Callaspo was surrounded by good defensive players as opposed to, well, the Royals.

There are two questions with regard to trading Callaspo.  One, would a good defensive team be willing to absorb his poor defense to Callaspo's bat into their lineup?  Two, do you think the power Callapso showed in 2009 is for real?   If the answer to either of those questions is 'yes', then trading Alberto is doable and advisable.

If the return for Callaspo is a long time minor league catcher who plays good defense but has never hit well outside of hitter's ballparks (aka A.J. Ellis), then the Royals would likely be ahead to make Callaspo their everyday DH, bat him second and see if he continues to be a .300 hitter who bangs out fifty plus extra base hits.

Now, if the return is a legitimate catching prospect ready for major league action or an A.J. Ellis type PLUS a mid-level outfield prospect, then I think it is a reasonable risk to take.   

I think the chances are relatively good that Callaspo is in a different uniform next season.  The odds that Dayton Moore pulls the trigger on the right kind of deal (or is even offered such a deal for that matter) are less than 50-50.

Gil Meche

The likely return for Meche prior to 2009 was probably about double what it is right now.   Most teams are going to consider Gil damaged goods until he can prove that the abuse suffered at the hands of Trey Hillman in the summer of 2009 had no long-term effects.

For the Royals, you have to get a starting pitching prospect back, plus at least two other minor leaguers to even start talking about moving Meche.   Right now, they won't get this kind of deal.

I don't like the idea of trading Meche simply because no one else in the organization but Gil and Zack Greinke haves the capability to put up 200+ innings with an sub-four earned run average in 2010.  

The wise move is to keep Meche to start the season.   If he's healthy and effective and the Royals find themselves buried once more on July 1st, then Meche will be a hot commodity at the trade deadline.    There is no reason for Dayton Moore to part ways with Gil for a bargain price at this point in time.

Jose Guillen

The only trade is going to be of the 'here's our malcontent overpaid player for your malcontent overpaid player'.  There has been some Guillen for Milton Bradley talk, but I think that's all speculation.   There is too much bad history between Bradley and the Royals for this to work.

Again, Guillen might well have more value (i.e. some value) by the trade deadline.   The Royals are on the hook for twelve million dollars no matter what so it is probably worth their while to put up with at least a couple months of Jose just to see if he actually hits the ball for a change.

Simply cutting Guillen in November does not make much sense.   If he's causing trouble and covering about fourteen square feet in rightfield come June 1st, then you cut him.

Trade?  I'd listen to any offer made, but I doubt there will be many, if any at all.

In the end, the four players listed above are really the only tradable commodities the Royals have.   Brian Bannister probably could be added to the list, but with his injury status the paragraph would read much like Gil Meche's only with about half the return.  It would be selling low once more.

They would also be selling low on Alex Gordon, Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar, so I don't think they are a consideration.   At least not as the primary pieces in a trade.   I could foresee a trade in which Davies might be the add-in piece with a DeJesus or Callaspo, but that gets into a entirely different discussion.

For now, what would it take for you to pull the trigger on any of the four above?  

Spinning around the Royals Universe...

Mike Moustakas is blowing up

Literally.  And not in a good way.  The gospel according to John Sickles:

On the negative side, Royals prospect Mike Moustakas doesn't look like the same player I saw in the Midwest League last year. His lower half is thicker, as if the size proportion  between his hips and his shoulders has been altered in a negative way. He's slower and less mobile in general compared to last year. He still has a solid-looking swing, but his plate discipline is weak and problems with lefties are evident. I had given him a Grade B+ a couple of weeks ago, but am strongly reconsidering that now and could lower it down to B or maybe even B-.. He's still very young, but I'm worried about him.

Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus agrees:

Mike Moustakas has gained a ton of weight, and not in any good way.

I'm not an East Coast guy.  Are the buffets in Delaware that awesome?

OK, Moustakas is a young guy and young guys often fill out in their late teens and early twenties.  Except as Sickles points out (and Sheehan implies) this is some serious filling out that has affected his mobility.  The whole plate discipline thing bothers me as well.  This is not looking good.

So the scorecard on the last couple of drafts:  Hosmer needs Lasik and Moustakas needs Jenny Craig.  Awesome.

The Royals sign Wilson Betemit to a minor league deal.

On a normal team, this doesn't rate as news.  That's because a normal team would use Betemit properly - keeping him in the minor leagues until an emergency situation necessitated his placement on the 25 man roster.

However, this is the Royals.  Or as I'm beginning to think of them... The Kansas City Braves.  That's right... Guess where Betemit broke into pro ball.

Money quote from Dayton Moore:

"His Major League statistics are solid."

Uh, OK.  Betemit has hit .258/.324/.432 in almost 1,300 plate appearances.  That's not really solid, but whatever.  I like how GMDM was praising his career OBP.  Normally, a .324 OPB is nothing to write home about.  Again, this is the Royals, so I guess expectations are a little different.  Anyway, Betemit's not really good.  Let's call him league average.  Fangraphs agrees as Betemit has a career WAR of 1.7.

Again, this seems to be a lot of bandwidth for a minor player in the cog of the Royals machine.  I guess the problem I have with this deal is it wouldn't surprise me if Betemit started the year on the big league team and then accumulated 400 plate appearances.  Remember how last year I wrote that if Willie Bloomquist got more than 300 plate appearances (he got 468) the Royals would be in trouble?  I may be able to apply the same corollary to Betemit for 2010.

Lenny DiNardo named to Triple-A All-Star Team

A nice honor I suppose.  Perhaps that news salved the pain of being removed from the 40 man roster, which happened on the same day.  Both DiNardo and Yashuhiko Yabuta were taken off the roster, refused the assignment to the minors and elected to become free agents.

Yabuta... Did we give GMDM and Trey Hillman a free pass on this guy or what?  Six million dollars for 51 major league innings and an ERA of 7.14.  Just a collosal blunder on the part of the Royals dynamic duo.  Honestly, I have no clue why the Royals grabbed this guy... It was pretty obvious he never fooled major league hitters and he was on the downside of his career in Japan.

When the history of the Moore/Hillman regime is written, Yabuta should get star billing as the first chink in the armor.

We continue our look at the Royals Team of the Decade by shining the spotlight on the outfield.  Last week, I published the first installment - the infield - and in that post I outlined the requirements a player needed to be considered for this most prestigious honor.  Basically, a player needed to accumulate 500 plate appearances as a Royal and needed to play at least half his games at a particular position for him to be eligible for selection.

The infield post may have gotten lost in the all the Mark Teahen trade hullabaloo, so you may want to refresh your memory as to the first five who were included on the squad.

On to the outfield…

Left Field
Johnny Damon 2000
.327/.382/.495 
OPS+ 118

Yes, Damon squeaks on to the All-Decade Team despite playing only a single year for the Royals in the aughts.  Again, this speaks to the horrendous decade we as fans just suffered through.

(Yes, I had to fudge my own rules to put Damon in left field.  The Royals had only one player in the entire decade who played more than half his games in left - Dee Brown.  I don’t care… I’m not freaking putting Dee Brown on an All-Decade Team.  Besides, in 2000 Damon played 570 innings in left and 579 innings in center.  Close enough.)

We all know the story of Damon… A sandwich pick by the Royals in the 1992 draft, he made his debut in 1995 and was the full time center fielder the following year.  Of course by this time the Royals were in perpetual rebuilding mode and Damon fancied himself something of the de facto general manager.  By the end of the 90’s, it was clear he had no interest in signing a hometown discount to stay in Kansas City, so the Royals pulled the plug following his 2000 season. 

2000 was a pretty good year for Damon.  He led the AL with 136 runs and with 46 steals.  That Royals team was damn fine, offensively and Damon was the spark.  And for that, he makes our All-Decade Team.

Center Field
Carlos Beltran  2000-2004
.286/.356/.492
OPS+ 114

Beltran was the complete package… A true five tool player.  It was only a matter of time before he was sprung from Kansas City.

He finished the decade with the second highest home run total (101 to Mike Sweeney’s 156) among Royals.  (Trivia time:  Who has the third highest home run total for the Royals this decade?  Answer below…)

The knock on Beltran was he could be inconsistent from year to year.  He opened the decade hitting .247/.309/.366 with an OPS+ of 69.  This was the year after he won the AL Rookie of the Year Award.  Many of us feared he was going to pull a Bob Hamelin.  (Of course, that’s been replaced with pulling an Angel Berroa.)  Beltran bounced back in 2001 with a year where he hit .306/.362/.514 with an OPS+ of 122.  He was down again in ’02, but rallied in 2003 with his best season as a Royal where he hit .307/.389/.522.  He was expected to be a key player on a contending team in 2004, but when the Royals stumbled, he was shipped to Houston in what was a three team trade that netted the Royals Teahen, John Buck and Mike Wood.  At the time of the deal, Beltran was hitting .278/.367/.534.

He certainly had a couple of subpar seasons, but Beltran’s strong years were enough to solidify his position on the All-Decade Team.

Right Field
Jermaine Dye 2000-2001
.303/.369/.506
OPS+ 119

It was only one and a half great seasons, but Dye was the Royals second best offensive performer this decade.  His .506 slugging percentage is one point lower than Sweeney’s team best mark and his OBP was third best this decade behind only Damon and Sweeney. 

Around these parts, Dye will likely be remembered as the guy the Royals gave up to get Neifi Perez.  That’s unfortunate.  (Anytime anyone is associated with Perez, that has to be unfortunate.)  At least the Royals got one of the best years of Dye’s career.  His 2000 season where he hit .321/.390/.561 and was named to his first All-Star team was the best year of his career until he topped it in 2006. 

He was a great defensive outfielder as well, with above average range and a great arm. 

Designated Hitter
Raul Ibanez 2001-2003
.291/.347/.492
OPS+ 112

Ibanez was more of an outfielder than DH during his time in KC, but he was simply too good a hitter to leave off the All-Decade Team.  He wasn’t anything special while he was with the Royals, but he was steady.  That’s high praise because there just weren’t that many “steady” players on this team in the aughts.  His best year with the team was in 2002 when he hit .294/.346/.537 and was second in just about every offensive category (2B, 3B, HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SLG) you can think of.

The Royals let him walk following the 2003 season and decided to replace him with Juan Gonzalez.  Ummm, in retrospect that may have been a horrible move.  Horrible.

There’s the Royals Team of the Decade - The Outfielders.  Overall, much better than the infield, but since Beltran left in 2004, there hasn’t been much to be excited about.  I mean when the likes of Willie Bloomquist and Jose Guillen are patrolling the corners…  But I digress.  This is supposed to be a celebration, so let’s ignore the bleak present for the time being.

As usual, leave your thoughts in the comments.  Next time out, we’ll look at the pitchers.

Dayton Moore stole my thunder.

And my computer destroyed my nearly finished, extremely long column - some of you may think that is a good thing.

After taking the past few weeks to review the Royals versus the American League Central on a position by position basis, my plan was to then lay out a blueprint for the off-season.   In doing so, this plan was not going to be another 'here's what I would do if I were general manager' column, but instead a 'here's what I think Dayton Moore should do' mixed with a 'here's what I think Dayton Moore might do'.

To be honest, we can write all the 'what I would do' type columns we want, but the truth is Yuniesky Betancourt will still be the shortstop come April of 2010.   So, I will save my 'what I would do' column for next July.....and probably write about five of them that month!

Anyway, back to the thunder stealing.   My sketchy ideas began with trading, of all people, Mark Teahen.    Here is the quasi-funny thing about my thoughts.   I was going to trade Mark Teahen and something (I had yet to decide what that something would need to be and, in fact, was halfway through an email to a Twins blogger to try to discover that somethingwhen the actual Teahen trade came down) to Minnesota for Carlos Gomez.    Of course, not only did the Royals trade Teahen, but the Twins actually traded Gomez the next day.   The only problem with my reality versus THE reality is that Teahen and Gomez were involved in seperate trades.

That is all out the window at this point, as is the question of picking up Miguel Olivo's option.   I like the trade of Teahen for Chris Getz and Josh Fields.   As I posted on Friday, Getz has at least some hope of becoming Brian Roberts-esque and Fields is, well, one year less removed from his 'big' year than Mark Teahen was and a whole lot cheaper.

All things considered, I was prepared to make a case to picking up the team's side of Olivo's option.   Although, as it turned out, Miguel probably was not going to pick up his side of the mutual option anyway.  Given that the Royals simply refused to find out if Brayan Pena could handle the everyday catching job defensively last summer (my guess is no, by the way), that leaves John Buck as a central figure in the equation.

That is, until I opened up MLBTraderumors this morning and read a rumor of Alberto Callaspo to the Dodgers for A.J. Ellis.   By all accounts, Ellis is a very good defensive catcher who at age twenty-eight has recieved a grand total of thirteen major league plate appearances.   Ellis sports a career minor league line of .278/.398/.375/.772 with more walks than strikeouts.  

Okay, so now what?

Let's assume/hope/pray that Gil Meche and Brian Bannister are both healthy come spring training.  If that is the case, then I am fully behind the idea of staying in-house with a rotation of Greinke, Meche, Bannister and some combination of Robinson Tejeda, Kyle Davies, Luke Hochevar and Anthony Lerew.   With any luck, Aaron Crow debuts in September and this 'decent' unit gets even stronger.

As for the bullpen, the Royals have Soria (who I might trade, but Dayton Moore almost certainly won't) and are stuck with Juan Cruz and Kyle Farnsworth.   The remaining three or four spots should be filled in-house with the Carlos Rosa, Chris Hayes, Chris Nicoll, Dusty Hughes, Lenny DiNardo and maybe even Greg Holland at some point.

The infield will almost certainly be Butler, Getz, Betancourt, and Gordon.   Billy likes playing in the field and is your best hitter:  leave him be.   There was no point in acquiring Getz unless the intent is to play him everyday at second and hope he becomes Brian Roberts - I think there is a one in three chance he might.   The Royals are stuck with Betancourt and simply have to spend one more year 'finding out' about Alex Gordon.   Reports are that Mike Aviles will be ready by spring and he gives you a backup at second, short and third - with the outside chance of forcing one of those three out of the lineup.

The outfield....ugh.  Well, it is David DeJesus and a wasteland.  

Designated hitter?  Don't do it, Dayton!  Don't offer Mike Jacobs arbitration!   I don't think he will.  I mean, he can't can he?

What to Do

I kind of like A.J. Ellis, but I'm skeptical of his ability to not have the bat knocked out of his hands in the majors.   Callapso for all his faults is too much to offer to only get Ellis in return.

My idea of Carlos Gomez roaming center field and becoming Willie Wilson with power is gone, but I still view center field as the single biggest need on this team and for this organization.   The Royals idea of playing Josh Fields at a corner outfield spot (with his 180 innings of outfield experience) seems a little 'out there'.   The thought of Jose Guillen spending another inning, much less 180 or, shudder, 1,000 in right field is horrifying.

If the Royals keep their pitchers, then they are left with two tradeable commodities:  David DeJesus and Alberto Callaspo.   Somewhow, they need to get a centerfielder or at least a better than what they have outfielder.

Here's the Deal

I just cannot seem to make straight up deals work with what the Royals have to offer.   Callaspo is either not enough or too much and adding a prospect tips the scale to too much to give up.   So, when in doubt, a three way deal always makes for good conversation.

The Royals would part ways with Alberto Callaspo and, hold on kids,  Danny Duffy.   Callaspo would go the Dodgers while Duffy would go to the Reds.  

In return, the Dodgers would send A.J. Ellis the Royals way and a pitcher (and I'm being lazy here) with less upside, but farther along than Duffy to the Reds.

The Reds would send outfielder Chris Dickerson to Kansas City.   To make this deal work, they might also have to send some minor prospect to the Dodgers, but nothing to major as LA is giving up a 28 year old minor league catcher and an 'outside the Top 10' prospect.

Too much?  Maybe, but the Royals need a centerfielder who can hit and they would still have promising pitchers Aaron Crow, Mike Montgomery and Tim Melville in their system.

And That's Not All!

The Royals have saved some cash in trading Teahen, so they would be wise to use it on a Brian Schneider:  a veteran, defensive catcher with a touch of on-base ability.  In addition, a reliever along the lines of a Kiko Calero ought to be doable on a one-year two or three million dollar deal.

Plus, the idea of resigning Coco Crisp to a low base salary one year deal with a bunch of incentives sounds like a nice insurance policy.

The 2010 Royals

Your pitching staff was outlined above, with the addition of Calero or a Calero-type.

Your everyday lineup is:

Catcher:  Schneider/Ellis

First: Billy Butler

Second:  Chris Getz

Short: Y. Betancourt

Third:  Alex Gordon

Left:  David DeJesus

Center:  Chris Dickerson

Right:  Josh Fields/Jose Guillen

DH:  Kila Kaaihue (seriously, he would be better than Jacobs and five times as cheap).

Utility:  Mike Aviles, Brayan Pena

Does this group contend in 2010?  Certainly not, but is anyone thinking there is anything you could reasonably do to be a contender in 2010?  

The hope is that Dickerson is the real deal and Getz is above average.   Maybe Josh Fields can hit and takes over DH duties to make room for David Lough or Jordan Parraz at mid-season.  Maybe Coco Crisp comes back and you run with an outfield of Crisp/Dickerson/DeJesus in the second half.    You can also hope that under the watchful eye of Schneider, A.J. Ellis does become a real life major league catcher.

Come 2011, the Royals can look to adding Aaron Crow to the rotation and, free of Guillen's salary, have some money to throw around to address at least one, if not two needs that arise.

That is a lot of maybe and hopefully, but it sounds better than 'no chance at all'.  

I have to apologize as this column had a lot more stats and thoughts before it blew up.  The above is the high points of the tortured musings of my mind without a lot of the groundwork originally done.  Man, I hate it when real life cuts into my blogging time!

From the official release:

The Kansas City Royals have declined 2010 options for outfielder Coco Crisp, catcher Miguel Olivo and right-handed pitcher Yasuhiko Yabuta.  Crisp and Olivo are now eligible to file for free agency.  Yabuta can elect free agency if he doesn’t sign a 2010 Major League contract with the Royals by November 16.

If the Royals had picked up Crisp's option for 2010, he would have earned $8 million.  That's a hefty salary for someone who likely won't be ready to play until May after having surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder.  Instead, he gets a $500,000 buyout.  This was an easy call for the Royals.  Someone will take a chance on Crisp, but it will likely be on an incentive-laden contract and on a team that can afford to give some cash to a guy who figures to open the year on the DL.

I'm kind of surprised the Royals didn't offer to pick up Olivo's option for $3.3 million.  It's a mutual option, meaning Olivo could have (and most likely would have) turned it down.  The Royals probably knew for certain that Olivo didn't want to return at those terms, so they decided to dispense with the formality and let him go at a cost of $100,000.  This doesn't necessarily mean the John Buck will be your number one catcher next year.  The Royals still have to decide whether or not to tender him a contract for 2010.  It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Royals and Olivo reach an agreement on a new contract that would pay him more than the $3.3 million he was due for next season.

And Yabuta... Complete bust.  He gets a $500,000 buyout.  Good riddance.

Okay, so the Mark Teahen to the White Sox deal is curiously stuck in trade limbo.  Is is simply a case of waiting for Chris Getz to pass a physical?   Is it a matter of the Royals kicking in some cash to make the deal?   Are there prospects involved?

I am taking the stance that all this 'smoke' must be coming from a pretty fair sized 'fire' and as such that this deal will eventually happen.  

Taking that assumption let's have a little fun:

To be fair, Roberts returned for a partial season in AAA at age twenty-five and put up a line of .315/.401/.399/.800.  

Okay, one more table:

Roberts had already logged 113 games in the majors in 2001 and 2002, but 2003 was basically his first year of regular duty, so that seems to be pretty comparable to Getz's true rookie season.

Am I saying that Chris Getz is the next Brian Roberts?  No, but it is interesting to note that Roberts came into the majors without a particularly impressive resume, either.

Make sure you read all the way to the updates... An interesting day, for sure.  Original post follows...

-------------------------------------

According to the NY Daily News:

While the Yankees and Phillies continued to wage their World Series battle Wednesday night, the Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals were making a trade.

The Daily News learned the White Sox have agreed to send second baseman Chris Getz and third baseman Josh Fields to the Royals for Mark Teahen, who is expected to replace Jermaine Dye as Chicago's right fielder.

Dayton Moore doesn't wait around.  The man pulled the trigger on last year's Jacobs deal hours after the World Series and it looks again like he's getting a head start on the Hot Stove.

And unlike last year's first trade which was a stinker, this one has some potential.

I'll have some more analysis later - pending confirmation from the Royals - but the most important thing to note is both Getz and Fields are under club control for the next two seasons.  That makes them inexpensive.  Teahen made almost $4 million last year and was sure to get a bump in his final year of eligibility for arbitration.

This certainly raises some questions.  What happens to Alberto Callaspo at second?  Getz isn't that much better defensively and Callaspo has a stronger bat.  Where will Fields play?  He's not a good defender, but will the Royals move him or Alex Gordon to first and then shift Butler to DH?  Or will Fields be the primary designated hitter?

My instant reaction says getting two cost controlled players for one expensive, mediocre talent makes this a win for the Royals.

If the Daily News report is accurate and this deal is done, it's safe to say GMDM is off to a much better start this off season.

UPDATE:  The Chicago Sun-Times says the White Sox have confirmed the deal.

UPDATE #2:  Dayton Moore says, "There's nothing to announce."

UPDATE #3:  Mark Teahen is sleeping in his Royal PJs.

UPDATE #4: The Chicago Tribune says nothing has been confirmed.

At last, we reach the final positional analysis of our long running series on the Royals versus their American League Central foes:  the bullpen.   Let's not waste any time and jump right into the numbers:

Some of you may be thinking, 'why losses?  After all, won-loss records are perhaps one of the poorest indicators of a pitcher's performance'.   You are right about that, but when dealing with a bullpen as an entire unit, I think losses is a very telling stat.  I cannot think of a way for the bullpen as a whole to be tagged with a loss without having something to do with it.

As such, that the Royals led the division in this dubious category is no surprise.   That they did not lap the competition (I guess lap in reverse might be the better term)was a surprise. 

Very few of you are probably shocked to see that the bullpen had a division worst earned run average.   As the Royals' FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) reflects, the relievers were certainly not helped by the Royals' ridiculously poor fielding.   Still, with a markedly higher WHIP than anyone else in the division, this unit was a major weakness on a weak team.  

Trust me, you don't even want to know how these numbers shake out if you take Joakim Soria's 1.132 WHIP and 2.21 ERA out of the equation.

Throughout the 2009 campaign, the Royals' pen was generally mismanaged and, as it turned out, poorl y constructed in the off-season.   General Manager Dayton Moore signed Kyle Farnsworth to a horrible three year contract which will likely make him the highest paid garbage innings reliever in baseball next year.   Manager Trey Hillman went from a strict 'this is your role and that is the only way I will use you' type handler to a 'ride the hot hand' guy to a 'pick names out of a hat' gambler.  

 To his credit, Hillman did use Soria for mulitple inning saves after the All-Star Break with a great deal of success.   That is not a long-term solution for a good team, but for struggling group it gave them a chance to win a couple games a week and stay below 100 losses.   The funny thing about this is that I think Hillman went to Soria for two inning saves at first to prove a point:  hoping that another save situation would come up the next day with Soria unavailable and then everyone would shut up about how he should be using his closer.   What transpired was that the Royals simply were not very good at producing save situations in back to back games and the two-inning save strategy actually worked!

At any rate, once Juan Cruz went from effective to ineffective to injured, the Royals bullpen outside of Soria was a disaster.  I like to play craps in the casinos...a lot..and I don't think I would have had the intestinal fortitude to show up at the ballpark everyday knowing that at some point I was going to have to roll the dice on a reliever not wearing the number forty-eight.

Solution

The Royals are stuck with Kyle Farnsworth (due $4.5 million in 2010) and Juan Cruz (another $3.25 million).   At this point, no one in baseball believes, or should believe, that Farnsworth will ever be effective in a high leverage situation.   The Royals should just reconcile their egos to this fact and use Farnsworth in the blow-outs or when they are down 5-1 in the 8th inning.   He will actually be fine in those situations and likely allow the club to save more effective relievers for another day.

As for Cruz, the organization has to hope that his decline prior to going on the disabled list was actually a result of tyring to pitch through an injury.   The alternative is that Juan has simply 'lost it'.   Probably the correct course of action would be to put him in middle relief to start the season and see what happens.  Maybe they get lucky and Cruz bounces back to become the primary set-up man.  Maybe not, but the Royals will certainly find out:  they don't have any other choice.

As for the rest of the pen, I see no reason to bring back a Jamey Wright or John Bale or Bruce Chen or just about anyone that we saw last year.   It is sink or swim time for twenty-four year old Carlos Rosa, so barring a spring training meltdown, he gets a spot in the pen and the Royals should be fully prepared to give a slew of relievers who were in AA and AAA last year a real shot at making the team for 2010.

Frankly, by June of last year, I thought Northwest Arkansas had a better bullpen than Kansas City did and I was only being a little sarcastic.   Chris Hayes, Chris Nicoll, Dusty Hughes, Greg Holland and others are likely to be as good, if not eventually better, than the six, seven, even eight guys that the Royals tried in front of Joakim Soria last year.   

Next Monda, I will wrap this series up with my thoughts on the Royals' off-season.