Brad Lidge imploded in the ninth inning of Game Four of the World Series last night and harkened back to a series previously written on this website.  About one month ago, I speculated on a possible trade of Joakim Soria to the Phillies.   Did Lidge's continuing problems just make this idea, rampant speculation that it is, more relevant?

On Wednesday, I will finish off our review of the American League Central:  focusing on, you guessed it, the bullpens.   For now, I pose this question:

If the Royals actually do put Joakim Soria on the market, is he the most desirable closer out there?   If so, would you as the Royals' general manager (not as a fan, mind you) pull the trigger on the deal I proposed or a different one or not at all?

Over the past couple of weeks, we have compared the positions in the field of the five American League Central teams.   We learned that as frustrating as the Royals' catchers are, they hold up pretty well in comparison (offensively at least) to their divisional brethren.   While we probably knew that Billy Butler, Alberto Callaspo and David DeJesus were okay, our research affirmed that they more than hold their own at their respective positions.  We also knew and had reaffirmed that Mike Jacobs and Yuniesky Betancourt are awful and that center and right field seem to be an abyss of an undetermined, yet horrific, depth.

Today, we move on to the starting rotations.   We will use some standard metrics (innings pitched and earned run average) along with the nearly standard WHIP and BABIP (batting average of balls in play), plus we will also use Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP).   Most of you probably are aware of FIP and that it is used to try to analyze what the pitcher can control and take either a good defense or a horrible defense out of the equation.   Let's have a look:

How much is BABIP effected by a team's defense?   I ask that only because the White Sox starters allowed a pretty low BABIP, which helped them to a division leading WHIP and earned run average.

What we see from the Royals (if you are willing to put stock in FIP) is that their starters were considerably better than their earned run average reflected.   Of course, it helps that you have Zack Greinke in the equation and if you took his numbers out of the Royals' totals the rest of the rotation would become very Cleveland-esque, but we don't have to do that.  Zack Greinke will be in the rotation next year and give Kansas City the luxury of trotting out the best pitcher in baseball every fifth day.

Solution

Imagine how the Royals' rotation would have compared if Gil Meche had repeated his performances from 2007 and 2008?   The key 'solution' in the off-season is to make sure Meche is healthy come day one of spring training.   Ditto for Brian Bannister.

Assuming Meche is not completely wrecked, he gives the Royals a legitimate number two starter behind Greinke.   Then you add Brian Bannister to the equation (again, assuming he is healthy), whose 2009 season is probably a better representation of who he is than either 2007 or 2008 was.   While Bannister is not a true number three - he likely is a solid number four and that is probably enough to keep the Royals from making some mad reach for an additional starter via trade or free agency.

I make that statement based more on the greater needs of the Royals in other areas as opposed to some faith that either Kyle Davies or Luke Hochevar finally....FINALLY, develop into a consistent middle of the rotation guy.  

Given the tremendous holes both, offensively and defensively, in the everyday lineup, Kansas City almost has to take a gamble that they can find two serviceable or, at least, not horrible starters from the group of Hochevar, Davies, Robinson Tejeda and Anthony Lerew (I kind of liked him in the limited amount of work he got at the end of the year).    If the Royals can soldier through 2010 with two those four - again, assuming both Meche and Bannister are healthy by spring - then they can look to a hopefully emerging Aaron Crow in late 2010 or the beginning of 2011.

In addition, by spring of 2011 at least one of the many promising arms in A ball might be ready to push for a spot in the rotation. I'm not asking for all of those youngsters to develop, just ONE to be close to ready the season after next (Montgomery probably?).

Whatever cash the Royals might have available (likely not much) and whatever trade chips (pathetic as they might be) exist, they would be wise to use those on the everyday lineup and hope a dose of good health and in-house talent fleshes out the starting rotation in 2010.

To Motley, for THE TITLE...

Thanks to Kent for reminding me.  After this many years, the memory becomes fuzzy.

I still have my tickets for Game 6 and Game 7...

Here's to the Royals of '85.

I’ve been away… did you miss me?  I missed you.

Unfortunately, October has been a great time for Royals fans to escape for the last 24 or so years.  I can cut myself off from baseball for a week or so and the only thing I’ll miss is a Steve Phillips Slumpbuster or a Mariano Rivera spitball.  Unless either of those things matter to you, it’s just about the best time of the year to take a vacation.

Anyway, here are a couple of Royal tidbits from the last week or so with a little commentary thrown in.

ITEM:  The Royals name Nick Kenney as their new head trainer.

Kenney was an assistant trainer with the Cincinnati Reds from 2003 to 2004 and has been with the Indians in the same capacity since 2005.  The Cleveland training staff was named the best in baseball by Baseball Prospectus and the Professional Baseball Athletic Trainers Association in 2007.

A positive from this:  The Royals wisely went outside the organization to fill this position.  When you have a training staff that couldn’t remove a band-aid, you need to think about going in a different direction. 

And Cleveland does seem to be doing mostly the correct things when it comes to injury.  I mean, somehow Kerry Wood avoided the DL last year.  Hopefully, Kenney had something to do with that.

ITEM:  Zack Greinke was named the Sporting News AL Pitcher of the Year.

It’s not the big award, but still…

This award was voted on by GMs and assistant GMs around the game.  While awards such as this don’t carry the same kind of publicity as some of the other hardware that will be handed out next month, it has to be extremely gratifying that the guys who are supposed to be the game’s top talent evaulators recognize Greinke’s outstanding year. 

My colleagues at Baseball Daily Digest did a vote in a format similar to the one used for the Cy Young and Greinke finished first with 14 out of 15 first place votes.  Somehow, he was third on one ballot.  CC Sabathia was the only other pitcher to earn a first place vote.  That’s embarrassing. 

The Cy Young will be announced on November 17th.

ITEM:  Hal McRae was let go as the hitting coach for the St. Louis Cardinals and was replaced by Mark McGwire.

As far as McRae goes, I’m sure this is of interest to a number of fans, but there’s nothing to see here.  Kevin Seitzer is your hitting coach for 2010 and Trey Hillman is your manager.  You are certainly free to dream, but I’m just trying to caution you to not get too worked up over this. 

No, Seitzer didn’t have a great first year as the Royals hitting coach, but again, he’s not dealing with major league caliber hitters.  Sure, there are some, but there are too many guys who have no business being in the big leagues on this club.  I’m not sure anyone can deal with this crew.  For now, I’ll buy into Dayton Moore’s mantra that patience is necessary.  For now.

And if you want (or are hoping) McRae would return to KC to manage… Please.  I have no clue if he’s still bitter about his time here and the way it ended, but he doesn’t strike me as someone who let’s things like this go away easily.  Even though there is a total new regime in place, I don’t think he’ll ever return.  Besides, I think I saw somewhere that he’s not interested in managing again. 

Actually, I’m more interested in the sideshow that’s going to happen in the big top in St. Louis now that Mark McGwire is back with the team.  I can’t wait for that first confrontation in spring training when McGwire is asked about steroids, because you just know he’ll say something about not talking about the past.  This will be high comedy that has potential to devolve into a large distraction for the Cardinals.  I’m fine with that.

ITEM:  AFL Update

A few minor leaguers of note are toiling in Arizona.  Jerrod Dyson is hitting .333/.333/.467 in 15 at bats.  Jeff Bianchi is .313/.378/.438 in 32 at bats.  And Mike Moustakas is .276/.313/.483 in 29 at bats.  Moustakas is tied for second on the team with 9 RBI. 

Blake Wood has thrown five innings in two starts and has a 3.60 ERA.  All players are on the Surprise Rafters.

Following the Facebook Fiasco, I wonder how strange things are for the Royals minor league department when they watch Danny Gutierrez pitch for the Rafters.  He hasn’t allowed a run in 6.2 innings spanning a pair of starts. 

I don't know about you guys, but I can't wait until the World Series is over and the first bone headed move by our General Manager to announce the off season.

We will finish up our comparison of the American League Central position players by tackling two positions in one column.  (Before everyone, including myself loses interest!)

Following the format of the previous columns, let's dive right in, starting in center field.

If these numbers are not discouraging enough, keep in mind that Chicago acquired Alex Rios to fill their center field void.   Cleveland got only 92 games in center field out of an injured Grady Sizemore and Detroit's Curtis Granderson had an off year.

Losing Crisp to injury truly did hurt the Royals, particularly defensively as the above chart shows.  It only gets worse as we move on to right field.

After first base and designated hitter, is there a position with a bigger premium on slugging than right field?   Given that, can we put to bed the worries about David DeJesus not having the bat to carry left field?  At least until SOMETHING is done in right?

The Central is not a division blessed with great fielders at this position.  Dye is years removed from the guy who patrolled right way back when for the Royals:  having posted a UZR/150 the three years prior to 2009 of -21.4, -21.5 and -21.5.  As for Teahen, it is noteworthy that in 2007 his rating was a +6.7.  It slipped to -9.6 in 2008 and then all the way (in an admittedly small sample) to -23.8 in 2009.

As bad as Jose Guillen was defensively, the Royals real problem in right field is at the plate.   We look at Yuniesky Betancourt at shortstop as a liability at the plate, we wonder who will man center in 2010 and hope beyond all hope that Mike Jacobs does not come back for another breeze making mission at DH, but by far the largest offensive deficit on the diamond was in right field.

Solution

Something needs to be done and it needs to be done from outside the organization.   Jordan Parraz is a year removed from being traded for Tyler Lumsden and David Lough is simply a year away and they represent by far the most hopeful outfield prospects on the immediate horizon.

Now, what 'it' is is a matter for further discussion and my ideas will have to wait until we finish up this comparison with a review of the pitching staffs.

David DeJesus played more games in left field in 2009 than any other player in the division.  In fact, David's 138 games at the position made him the only player among the five Central division members to exceed 100 games played.   Through it all, DeJesus was criticized for smiling too much, being 'only average' on a team full of below average players, and generally have the audacity to not be Carlos Beltran or Johnny Damon.

Be that as it may, let's check the offensive numbers each team generated from the left field position:

Personally, David DeJesus put up a line of .281/.347/.434./781 with 79 runs created, which illustrates just how awful the left fielders were for the 24 games he did not play.

Cleveland started ten different players in left, while Detroit started seven.   Minnesota used Jason Kubel, Dennard Span and Delmon Young at the position, while most of the time in Chicago was split between Carlos Quentin and Scott Podsednik:  two of the most different players to ever share a position.

Here is how the major players stack up defensively:

 As one of our commenters pointed out a few columns ago, there is some skepticism with regard to Ultimate Zone Ratings, but I think they are at least accurate enough for a quick view of fielding capability.   My personal favorite is John Dewan's plus/minus system, but UZR/150 is what I started this series with so I'm sticking with it for a few more columns.

Visually, DeJesus passed the 'eye test' in left field, with the exception of a couple of boneheaded plays during the season (a trait that is sadly not unique to the Royals), and certainly seemed to a go from a 'minus' defender in center  to a 'plus' defender in left.

Solution

Does he have the power you would ideally like from a corner outfielder?   Probably not, although his extra base ability is at worst average.   Does he have that elite level on-base ability?  Again, no, but a .347 on-base percentage in a somewhat down year personally while batting in an order full of hackers is not horrible at all.

The only real problem with David DeJesus is that he is a solid, everyday player on a team that currently has no stars.  As such, instead of comfortably settling in as maybe the fourth or fifth best hitter in the lineup he has, until the emergence of Billy Butler, been viewed as the team's best hitter.

That is not David DeJesus' fault, nor is it a reason to ship him off.   Frankly, the trade value of DeJesus does not equal the worth he currently carries with Kansas City.    Right now, he is just one of three (Butler and Callaspo being the other two) position players on the roster that can viewed as true everyday major leaguers.  

He is good, but not so good that other teams will give up the requisite booty to make a trade worthwhile.  While DeJesus has a team friendly contract, he is what he is and that is both a positive and a negative.

What David DeJesus is, without question, is the Royals' left fielder in 2010.   Write it down, move on and stop worrying about how much he smiles.

Perhaps I am jaded or just overly focused on the Royals to the exclusion of all other teams.    Maybe I simply cannot forgive Mark Teahen for teasing us with that sensational summer of 2006 - the likes of which he has never come close to since.    That Alex Gordon has yet to become a superstar or even average for that matter, has not helped my perspective anyway.

Whatever the reason, as I began my comparision of the American League Central third basemen, I did not expect the offensive production numbers to look like this:

That's right, 99 games of Mark Teahen, 48 of Alex Gordon and 11 of Alex Callaspo (plus a smattering of others) contributed to the Royals leading the division in all five offensive categories in the table above.  That may be more of an indictment of the Central's third sackers than a plus for the Royals.

Now for defense:

I have never been a fan of Teahen's defense at the hot corner - although it visually improved after his shoulder surgery at the end of 2006.   For the record his UZR/150 in 2005 was -17.6, 2006 +0.4, 2008 (just 19 games) -23.9.  Hence, no real surprise about his negative rating once more in 2009.

After posting a nice +7.9 in his rookie season, Gordon regressed to -3.6 in 2008 and posted virtually the same mark this past season.

As for Callaspo, I included him as there has been some rumblings about the Royals moving Callaspo to third, Gordon to first, Butler to DH and someone (Aviles/FA) to second.   Obviously eleven games is not a big enough sample to put much stock in that ranking and such a move ignores the fact that Alberto Callaspo is a giant space cadet on defense (physical shortcomings aside).   Still, I included Alberto because I think such a move might be under actual consideration.

If the Twins resign Joe Crede AND he stays healthy, he is an obvious defensive plus on the diamond and certainly can hit enough to keep up with the current production within the division.   Ditto for Brandon Inge in Detroit.

The guy who could blow the curve is Chicago's Gordon Beckham, who posted an .808 OPS this season and is likely to improve his defensive rating as he gains experience at third.

Solution

2009 was supposed to be Alex Gordon's breakout season only to see him derailed by injuries and somewhat rushed (in my opinion) rehabilitation and then a string of simply bad baseball upon his return.   From the Royals' perspective, you have to just write 2009 off as a non-event and treat 2010 as Alex's true third season.

As an organization, they cannot give up on Gordon without giving him one more healthy year to prove he can at least partially attain the immense potential most saw when he was drafted second overall back in 2005.   They would be selling low to try and trade him and a position change would introduce one more variable into an already murky equation.

For at least the first half of 2010, the Royals need to put Gordon at third base, bat him sixth or seventh and see what happens.   Come July, if Aviles is healthy and productive and Gordon still a negative in the field, then they could entertain moving Callaspo (or Aviles for that matter) to third and Gordon over to first.

There is nothing exciting about the 'one more year' tactic, but it is the right move for the Royals at this position.

When we began our position by position comparison of the Royals versus the rest of the American League Central, some of you may have been surprised by how well the catchers matched up.    You might have been a little disappointed to see that Billy Butler was only in the middle of the pack at first and perhaps a little amazed that, despite all his defensive shortcomings, one could make a case that Alberto Callaspo was the best second baseman in the division.

Sadly, there are no pleasant suprises in store for today's review, but then you already knew that, didn't you?

At the start of 2009, there was almost uniform agreement that Mike Aviles would certainly regress from his fantastic 2008 rookie season.   Still most of us thought that, regression aside, he would still be an asset for the club at shortstop.    As we are all painfully aware, that did not happen.

After playing for the Puerto Rican team in the WBC, Aviles tried to play through an injury (one he did not disclose to the Royals) and was simply awful for the first month of the season.   After trying the standard Royals' give-it-some-rest-and-see treatment, Mike eventually landed on the disabled list with season ending Tommy John surgery.

Kansas City turned to Tony Pena Jr. and Willie Bloomquist and eventually panicked their way into trading for Yuniesky Betancourt.  As an aside, my wife and I attended two games in August at Safeco Field in Seattle.   Wearing our Royals' jerseys, we were thanked by not one, not two, but three different fans for taking Betancourt off their hands.

The injured Aviles-Pena Jr.-Bloomquist-Betancourt monster was as bad as it sounds....on both sides of the ball.

Offense - weighted Runs Created (Shortstops)

KCR: 37

CHI: 80

CLE: 91

DET: 53

MIN: 69

Defense - Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games

Orlando Cabrera, who the Twins acquired in mid-season, was coming off a +13.1 UZR/150 in 2008, so I'm not sure what happened to him defensively.  However, he did hit .289/.313/.430 for Minnesota, while Betancourt was a pathetic .240/.269/.370 for the Royals with even worse defense. 

Prior to Cabrera's acquisition, the Twins used Nick Punto (+3.1) and Brendan Harris (-4.7) at shortstop.   Both of them were far better in the field than the Royals' stopgap, Willie Bloomquist, who posted a -12.7 rating.

When comparing to Detroit, the Royals got 26 more points of OPS out of Betancourt than the Tiger got out of Adam Everett, but that is nowhere near enough pop (if you can even call it that) to make up for the huge defensive disparity between the two.

Chicago's Alexei Ramirez, who had the unique distinction of hitting more home runs than doubles (15 to 14), gave the White Sox good production with above average defense, while Cleveland's Asdrubal Cabrera was enough of an offensive plus (.308./361/.438) to outweigh below average defense.   Given that Cabrera is four years younger than Betancourt, I don't like Kansas City's odds of making up any ground here.

Solution

We could go fantasy world here and make one up, but let's face facts:  the Royals have Betancourt under contract for two more years and this is a trade that Dayton Moore has hung his hat on.   There has been some lip service out of the organization about Betancourt and Aviles competing for the spot next spring, but we should all know better.

Yuniesky Betancourt will be the starting shortstop for the Kansas City Royals in 2010 and will likely be the weakest at his position in the division (if not all of baseball).   We can concoct all sorts of scenarios to make ourselves feel better, but the prior sentence is what will actually happen.

The solution?  Get better at other positions because the Royals are stuck with this one.

I admit, I’m kind of at a loss here.

The playoffs resume tonight, we’re a month or so from when free agency kicks into gear, about six weeks from the winter meetings and four months from camp.  In other words, there’s not much going on. 

When the Royals limped to the finish line a couple of weeks ago, I actually welcomed the end of the season.  That’s how brutal this year was.  And now that we’ve gone about 10 days without Royals baseball, somehow I find myself missing the games. 

I think I’m mentally ill.

-- The Arizona Fall League is underway and several Royals have seen action for the Surprise Rafters.  (What’s a Rafter?  Someone who’s on a raft?  Do they really have rafters in the middle of Arizona?)  Mike Moustakas went 1-4 with an RBI double in his only action, while Jeff Bianchi is 1-9.

ESPN’s Keith Law is in Arizona and is covering the league.  Follow him on Twitter for updates, such as this one from yesterday:

Jeff Bianchi is swinging and missing at fringy stuff like it's 95 with movement. #royals

No word if this Tweet got Law banned from the Royals facility in Surprise.

--  Texas batting coach Rudy Jaramillo decided to decline the Rangers offer of a new contract, making him a coaching free agent.  He’s been with Texas for 15 years.  And get this… He’s used Scott Boras as representation before.  Priceless.

Anyway, I’m aware of Jaramillo’s rock star status as a hitting coach, although some of the luster has worn off.  Last year, the Rangers ranked 12th in OBP and some people weren't happy with a particularly hacktastic approach of certain Ranger hitters.  Word is, the Cubs, Astros and Mets are all interested.  Obviously, some Royals fans think he’d be just perfect here in KC, which ignores the fact the Royals have already announced their staff for 2010.

--  The Royals retained three possible minor league free agents on Wednesday.  Scott Thorman, Kelvin Villa and Carlos Rivas will return to the organization next summer.  My favorite quote from the Dutton notebook about the three:

All three are former Atlanta prospects.

Of course, they are.

Thorman is a first baseman who appeared in 175 games for the Braves in 2006 and 2007 and hit .222/.260/.407.  He hit .297/.346/.496 with 19 home runs in Omaha after he was released from the Ranger organization.  He'll turn 28 in January.

Villa pitched in relief for Wilmington and posted a 3.38 ERA in 77 innings.  He had 67 strikeouts and 22 walks, but allowed 91 hits.  He'll be 24 in December.

Rivas was picked up by the Royals after a rough start (7.52 ERA in 26 innings in A-ball for the Braves) and did well pitching exclusively out of the bullpen.  He had a 1.74 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 20 innings.

All three were with the Braves when Moore was Director of Player Personnel.

--  Who do you like in the Playoffs?  I have the Dodgers in five games in the NLCS and the Angels in six. Although I would enjoy a Philadelphia-New York World Series, just because of the human suffering potential.  Baseball in the Northeast in November?  Bud Selig is genius.

Installment three of our comparison, position by position, of the Kansas City Royals versus the other AL Central clubs focuses on second base.

Finally given regular playing time, Alberto Callaspo responded with a fine season at the plate.   Many of us expected Callaspo to hit for average (he did) and figured he would post a decent on base percentage (again, he did), but I am not sure anyone expected Alberto to hit sixty extra base hits.   Frankly, 41 doubles, 8 triples and 11 home runs is awfully good production from a middle infielder...on any team.

So, how does that line stack up against the rest of the division?   Let's take a look at the positional totals:

Callaspo, who is responsible for 142 of the Royals' games at second and put up a personal line of .300/.356/.457/.813, was easily the best offensive player at the position in the division.   So, one might ask just why are Royals' fans not in love with this guy?   Let's take a look at the defensive side of things:

Alberto Callaspo is a bad defensive player.   If the numbers above do not convince you, then watching him play the position or listening to Frank White describe Alberto Callaspo playing the position will.   The shortcomings of Callaspo's play in the field is not limited to physical errors, but also include poor positioning, poor decision making and curious routes to balls.

HOWEVER, one look at the chart tells you that every other team in the AL Central has some issues at second base, too.   Detroit is likely to jettison the steady Polanco and go with a rookie at second in 2010 and the only other plus fielder in the division, Nick Punto, is possibly the worst offensive player in the game now that Tony Pena Jr. is a pitcher.

Given that, one could make an argument that in a division full of bad (albeit mostly young) fielders, the Royals' guy hits the best.   As such, the organization might be wise to focus their rebuilding efforts elsewhere, at least for now.   In looking at the position in a vacuum, that logic makes perfect sense.

Second base, however, is not played in a vacuum (few things are, it seems).  As we discussed on Monday, the Royals also have the worst fielding first baseman in the division, which makes Callaspo's defensive issues much more critical.    Can they afford to go through 2010 with Butler and Callaspo on the right side of their infield?

Summary

The answer, in my opinion, to the previous question is no.  

While both Butler and Callaspo's bats certainly justify everyday duty, they also represent probably the two most productive bats in the lineup.    If the Royals had Joe Mauer behind the plate, if Alex Gordon was producing like Evan Longoria and they had Raul Ibanez instead of Jose Guillen in the outfield, they might be able to carry bad defense at both first and second base.  

Kansas City, however, never had a shot a Mauer and did not draft Matt Wieters.    They offered Raul Ibanez a two year deal when all he wanted was three and have watched him smack the ball all over creation for the six years since (yes, I have issues with letting things go).    Plus, as we enter year four of the Alex Gordon experience, I find myself wondering less about how good he might become and more about what it might have been like to draft Troy Tulowitzki instead.

In a perfect world, Mike Aviles is able to come back from injury,  be ready to play second base in 2010 AND hit like he did in 2008.   Then you could slide Callaspo into the designated hitter position, enjoy at least competent defense on the right side of the infield and, in theory, improve your ball club both offensively and defensively.  

Is that a realistic probability?   Is it truly the right move?

To be honest, I am not ready to say yes or no to either question.   It is, however, something worth considering as we continue on with our positional comparisons and eventually to an overall summary.