The Royals have scored 190 runs on the season. That’s the second most in the AL, behind only the Toronto Blue Jays who have plated an even 200. Scoring runs is the key to accumulating wins, as anyone will tell you. I mean, that’s fairly obvious and probably not why you stop by this blog. However, it’s not the only thing. Take those same Blue Jays. Yes, they lead the majors in runs scored but they are five games under .500 and five games behind the leaders in the East. They are in last place.
On the flip side, the Royals have allowed only 137 runs. Again, that’s the second best in the AL. This time, they are behind only the Los Angeles Angels, who have allowed 129 runs to score. Just like runs scored, preventing runs aren’t the only key to winning games. The Angels are just a single game above .500 and they trail first place Houston by 5.5 games.
So while runs scored and runs allowed, taken alone, aren’t exactly indicators of success or failure. Combined however, and you’re getting closer. As you may imagine, the Royals, with their second best mark in runs scored and their second best spot in runs allowed, do really well in run differential.
As of Monday, the Royals run differential is at +55. By far the best in the American League.
Here are the top five:
Royals – +55
Astros – +23
Tigers – +20
Rays – +17
Yankees – +15
Here we are, a month-plus into the regular season
The Royals run differential gives them a Pythagorean record of 24-13. Which is one game better than their actual record of 23-14. That’s unbelievable, yet not surprising. If that’s possible. (Pythagorean record is a simple formula based on runs scored and runs allowed to deliver an expected won-loss record. It’s not predictive of anything.)
More indicative of how a team has performed is the 3rd order winning percentage. This is a winning percentage adjusted for statistics and strength of schedule. Because it takes into account more than just raw runs scored and allowed, there’s a little more depth to 3rd order winning percentage. As of Monday, the Royals 3rd order winning percentage is 25-13, a .667 winning percentage. And best in the American League.
We know the strengths of this team. The defense and the bullpen are righteous. This year, the offense has taken a massive step forward. While the BABIP has started to normalize (it’s currently at .322, down from the stratosphere it occupied in late April) the defensive runs saved and the relief corps are keeping the damage we would find in the regression to a minimum.
There are still flaws on this team. (Cough, cough… starting pitching.) It’s difficult to say if those flaws are serious enough to derail this team going forward. However, the strengths are real enough that these Royals don’t look like one-year wonders. There’s some staying power here.
This could be one hell of a summer.