As often mentioned recently, the Royals current roster will, for once, also make up the bulk of next season’s 2012 team as well. I tweeted last month wondering when the last time was that the Royals batting lineup in August was the same as what it would be on Opening Day of the following season. Not sure anyone came up with an answer (1998 maybe?).
Given the current situation, one I consider to be a positive situation for the most part, we can look forward to next season and actually start assessing what this team might be now as opposed to, well, six hours before the first pitch of the season. Who will be better? Or worse? Let’s take a look.
The Sure Things
- Billy Butler – He may never be the ‘prototypical DH’ that some crave, but even with a slow start in 2011, Billy has a wOBA of .358 and is likely to have 60+ extra base hits…again. He won’t get any faster and his days of playing in the field are pretty much over, but Butler will hit.
- Eric Hosmer – He won’t win rookie of the year, but I am pretty sure Hosmer is the one guy on the Royals that every single organization in the game would like to have. His .283/.334/.450 line is a nice major league start for a guy who spent all of six weeks in AAA. We have seen a lot of young players come and go, but Hosmer has the ‘it’ factor.
A Step Forward or a Moment in Time?
- Alex Gordon – .303/.376/.502 was what we have all been waiting for, wasn’t it? Gordon’s fWAR now stands at a spectacular 6.1, making him quite possibly the best leftfielder in the American League. After four seasons that fell short of the high expectations for Gordon, the question is: can he do this again? My guess, my gut feeling is that THIS is Alex Gordon and he will continue on at this level or something near to it. My heart wants to put him in the ‘sure thing’ category, but logic tells us to be just a shade more cautious.
- Melky Cabrera – He could go 2-98 next year and still be one of Dayton Moore’s best free agent signings: that is how good Melky has been this season. Sure, he is overrated as a centerfielder because of his good arm, but he is not horrible, either. Raise your hand if you thought Cabrera would be worth 3.3 fWAR. No one? Now, raise them if you think he can do it again. Yeah, I know, I can’t decide whether to put my hand up or not.
- Jeff Francoeur – There is nothing wrong with .282/.330/.467 out of Frenchy. You cannot expect much more and we should all be happy if he can sustain that for the next two years of his new contract. Will he? I’m a little skeptical in that Jeff has been prone to ‘fall off the cliff’ type seasons. Again, it may or may not be logical to be almost certain a 27 year old Alex Gordon has ‘taken the next step’ and be equally skeptical that Francoeur and Cabrera (also 27) have not.
Destined for Better Things?
- Mike Moustakas – The swing looks better and the numbers have gone from awful to below average. Along the way, Moustakas has played better than expected defense (although no one expected much in this area) and kept his confidence. You would like to see something of a power surge here in September as a springboard to Mike becoming a 25+ home run guy (I doubt he will ever be a big average hitter), but even without a fall hot streak, I will be expected Moustakas to be more of an offensive asset than he has been in 2011. Frankly, it would be hard for him not to be, right?
- Alcides Escobar – I am ‘this close’ to buying an Escobar jersey, but am afraid the Fosler jersery jinx might send him into a .221 hitting, error laden 2012. We saw Alcides have a nice run at the plate and a lot of what happens to him with the bat seems to be attributable to his approach and not actual ability. In theory, that can fixed. With the type of defense Escobar displays, he does not have to go much beyond his current .247/.281/.328 line to be good enough. My gut feeling is that Alcides gets a little more consistent in 2012, but he might also be what he is, too.
- Johnny Giavotella – Considering how poorly his defense was reviewed in the minors, he actually is not as bad as I thought. Johnny makes some bad decisions (so does Hosmer by the way) and his hands are the problem. Range-wise, he gets to most balls and has been working hard at improving himself in the field. Listen, we have seen ‘brutal’ and it’s name is Alberto Callaspo and Esteban German: Giavotella is already better than either of them were at second. At the plate, he has looked better than his numbers reflect, for whatever that is worth and long term, .255/.293/.391 won’t cut it, but Giavotella is no Johnny come lately to successful hitting. Having hit at every level on the way up, I think he might hit at this level as well.
- Salvador Perez – I am biased, but Perez is the best young defensive catcher I have seen since – dare we say it – Ivan Rodriguez came up at an early age. To date, Sal has held his own at the plate as well (in an admittedly small sample size), but truth is if he can totally negate an opponet’s running game and handle the staff he does not have to hit much.
The shrewd readers of the group will already be thinking that not every young player gets better – especially Royals’ young players, so the odds that everyone above improves or continues to ‘dominate’ are pretty slim. The Royals’ offense, while inconsistent this year, has been pretty good. If a player to two elevates and the rest simply hold the line, then this team will be better positionally speaking.