Hang on everyone, we are finally, FINALLY in the final week of spring training. It is a good feeling to know that next Monday I will have actual regular season games to write about! I am pretty sure that there is not a Royals’ fan out there who isn’t tired of debating roster moves, nicknames, and what spring training really means, so let’s have a little fun today and throw out some over/unders for the coming season.
Eric Hosmer Home Runs
Anyone not think Hosmer is the real deal? We have all fallen prey to overestimating the potential of more than one prospect over the years, but I am not sure any one player has seemed so destined for stardom in a Royals’ uniform since we saw Carlos Beltran come up. There has been a lot of talk about Hosmer threatening Steve Balboni’s club record of 36 homers and I think that one year either Hosmer or Mike Moustakas probably will bust through that long standing number. However, I don’t think 2012 is going to be the year.
The over/under on Hosmer homers is 29.
Alex Gordon’s OPS+
I know some of you are not all that keen on sabermetrics, but it is a tidy way to quantify a player’s offensive contributions relative to the rest of the league. Last year, Gordon posted a rather impressive OPS+ of 140. For reference, his OPS+ from his rookie season forward were: 90, 109, 87 and 84.
Was 2011 a freak occurrence or the long awaited realization of Gordon’s potential? I think the latter, but I also know that Gordon had a little bit of good fortune when it came to the beloved BABIP. He might regress, but not a lot (at least I sure hope it is not a lot!).
The over/under for Gordon’s 2012 OPS+ is 129.
Luke Hochevar’s Innings Pitched
A couple of things come into play here. The first is that 2011 was basically the first year Luke managed to go through the entire season without an injury. The second is that unless you are the late Jose Lima, it is hard to pile up a lot of innings if you are not effective. In my mind, the number of innings Hochevar throws will be a direct correlation to his effectiveness.
Last season, Luke threw 198 innings, using a strong second half to get his ERA to a marginally tolerable 4.68 by season’s end. The Royals expect and quite frankly really, really, really need Hochevar to build on the success he enjoyed after the All-Star Break in 2011. I’m cautiously optimistic.
The over/under on Hochevar’s innings pitched is 208.
Greg Holland’s Saves
Ned Yost has yet to commit to a full-time closer to replace the injured Joakim Soria and looks to be headed towards an early season combination of Holland and Jonathan Broxton. I don’t mind that, but I think we may see Holland simply take the role over by sheer overpowering effectiveness sooner rather than later. You have to give Dayton Moore credit on this one: he drafted Holland in the 10th round with the idea that Greg would get to the majors quickly and be a possible closer. You have to love it when a plan comes together.
The over/under on Mr. Holland’s saves is 31.
Billy Butler’s Extra Base Hits
I don’t agonize over Butler’s home run total like many do and I quite possibly could be wrong to not do so. I do, however, monitor Billy’s overall extra base hit total. Last season, Billy hit 63, the year before 60 and in 2009 he smacked 73 extra base hits. The Royals could certainly use a big number in this category as Billy should see Alex Gordon and Eric Hosmer on base when he comes to the plate with great regularity. My hunch says that Billy amps it up this year.
The over/under is 71.
The Royals Starting Pitchers
Last season, Kansas City had 11 different pitchers start a game. Let’s eliminate the September call-up situation to get to the crux of the issue. How many pitchers will start a game prior to September 1st this year and, quite frankly, is it good or bad to have a higher number?
There will certainly be an injury or two along the way, so you know Felipe Paulino gets some turns which puts you at six out of the gate. Do we see Mike Montgomery? Does Everett Teaford get a start or two or ten?
The over/under is 8.
Alicdes Escobar’s on base percentage
With Salvador Perez out until June or so and not a single second baseman in the organization can seem to, you know, hit the ball, the Royals really need Escobar to improve his offensive game to keep the bottom of the order from becoming the ‘now’s a good time to go to the bathroom and get some nachos’ part of the game. Escobar is never going to be Troy Tulowitzki at the plate, but he has to do a little more than get on base at a .290 clip. We saw some signs of improvement over the latter half of the season, although much of that was due to one magical hot streak.
If Escobar focuses at the plate like he does in the field, stays within himself and goes with the pitch, he could emerge as at least a ‘hold your own’ type of guy at the plate. The Royals really need him to do so.
The on-base percentage over/under for Escobar is .322.
Could the Royals have taken an injury hit in a worse area? With Perez out with knee surgery, Kansas City will struggle at the catching position. Imagine the boost if the Royals can hang around .500 into the summer and then have Perez return healthy to the lineup.
Nothing is better than being young and in shape, so I am hoping for a quicker than expected return out of Perez.
The over/under on the number of games Salvador Perez will catch in 2012 is 81.
And Finally, The Only Number That Matters
How many games will Kansas City win in 2012? A lot of projections this spring put that number anywhere in the seventies. We are all certainly hoping for better, but is that logical? This is a young team with sketchy starting pitching and one that has already suffered two big injuries. Almost everyone seems to think the Royals will hit, but truthfully Billy Butler is the only offensive player who is truly proven over time. We all think the bullpen is lockdown solid, but relievers are just plain unpredictable.
Craig was optimistic on Friday and it has rubbed off on me.
The over/under on 2012 Kansas City wins is set at 82.