Young is a fastball/slider pitcher who will occasionally mix in a change-up. His average fastball is clocked at 84 or 85 mph. As you are probably saying to yourself at this moment, “I bet he doesn’t miss many bats with that kind of velo,” you would be correct. He got a swing and miss on 7.1 percent of all swings last year. That’s Jeremy Guthrie-esque. (Guthrie has a swing and miss rate of 7.2 percent.) For some league-wide perspective, Young’s swing and miss rate was the 13th lowest among 88 qualified starting pitchers.
Generally, it’s a good idea to miss bats. I say generally, because there are exceptions. One of those exceptions is if you have a quality defense behind you, scooping up all those inevitable balls in play. Another exception would be if you pitch in a pitcher-friendly environment where your fly balls are more apt to stay in the yard. Young had both those things working for him last year in Seattle.
|162 Game Avg.||12||9||.556||3.77||34||34||190||160||85||80||107||4.38||7.6||1.2||3.4||7.4|
|SDP (5 yrs)||33||25||.569||3.60||97||97||550.2||416||233||220||110||4.29||6.8||1.0||3.9||8.0|
|NYM (2 yrs)||5||9||.357||3.76||24||24||139.0||131||63||58||101||4.47||8.5||1.2||3.0||6.6|
|TEX (2 yrs)||15||9||.625||4.34||38||38||201.0||198||105||97||108||4.03||8.9||1.2||2.5||7.3|
|SEA (1 yr)||12||9||.571||3.65||30||29||165.0||143||70||67||100||5.02||7.8||1.4||3.3||5.9|
|NL (7 yrs)||38||34||.528||3.63||121||121||689.2||547||296||278||108||4.33||7.1||1.1||3.7||7.7|
|AL (3 yrs)||27||18||.600||4.03||68||67||366.0||341||175||164||104||4.48||8.4||1.3||2.8||6.7|
Looking at his stats, Young seems the picture of a very average starting pitcher. When he is healthy. His injury report is enough to make the most hardened baseball observer cringe. He had shoulder surgery in August 2009, which caused him to miss the rest of the season. He missed most of 2010 with a sprain in the anterior capsule of his shoulder and missed most of 2011 when he had a second shoulder surgery to repair the anterior capsule. He spent 2013 in the Nationals system where his season was cut short by another shoulder surgery designed to remove pressure on a nerve. No pitcher wants to have their shoulder cut open. It’s difficult enough to come back from one. Three? Tip of the cap to Young. The guy is obviously a competitive animal.
Young usually starts batters with his fastball. In fact, it’s his first offer 85 percent of the time to lefties and 70 percent of the time to same-side batters. He stays with the fastball if he falls behind, but will show slider when he’s ahead in the count. He will mix in a change against left-handed batters, but will rarely throw one against hitters from the right side.
Both fastball and slider yield a ton of fly balls. Last summer, Young got a fly ball almost 59 percent of the time the ball was put in play. That was the highest fly ball rate in the majors, and it wasn’t even close. Second place belonged to our old friend Jake Odorizzi who’s fly ball rate was just under 49 percent. That’s right. A ten point gap between Young and the rest of the field. That’s not some anomaly. Young’s fly ball rate has been in the mid-fifties nearly every season since 2006. His career fly ball rate is 55 percent.
It’s easy to see why Young is such a fly ball pitcher. For one, velocity. For two, it’s all about the location. From Brooks Baseball, here is a chart illustrating the location of all pitches Young threw in 2014.
He works up in the zone and on the left side of the plate. (Meaning he’s inside to right-handed batters.) Despite what Uncle Hud may tell you, pitching up in the zone doesn’t necessarily mean you are a fly ball pitcher. In fact, the red concentration in the upper left corner is an area where Young generates a bunch of ground balls. It would seem left-handed batters reach and roll their wrists for the pitch up and off the plate which results in a few more worm-burners. But for Young, those pitches up inside the strike zone do help his amazingly high fly ball rate.
Let’s be real for a moment. If there is any team in baseball that could be defined as “the perfect fit” for Young, it’s the Royals. The high-acreage outfield, the tremendous outfield defense, the infielders who can snag pop-ups of all shapes and sizes. Kudos to the Royals for looking at the market and, while there may not be an immediate need, they recognized the fit. He’s in the fold and should one of the top five starters fall early in the year, Young is clearly the next in line. That’s just good roster management. And that’s something you haven’t often read from me about this team.
Young signed for a base salary of $675,000. There are enough incentive clauses built into his contract that, should he hit them all, he would net around $6 million. According to The Star, Young can earn $1 million in service time bonuses. That’s $250k for making the Opening Day roster along with another quarter million for each of 30, 60 and 90 days on the roster. He can pocket $1.975 million in bonuses for innings pitched and $2.35 million in bonuses for games pitched. I like this kind of deal. It’s a, “Yeah, we know you are a starter but we don’t have room for another starter, so why don’t you come here for less money, and if you do end up in the rotation we will make it right” kind of contract.
Dayton Moore has informed the world that Young will make the team out of spring training. Knowing the Royals rotation is set at this point, barring injury, Young will debut for his new club out of the bullpen. That brings up some interesting bullpen calculus. We know the locks (Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Jason Frasor, and now Young.) If Luke Hochevar is healthy and ready to go, he’s there too. That’s six arms for what should be seven spots. There’s Rule 5 draftee Jandel Gustave to consider. And also Louis Coleman who is out of options. Of course we can’t forget about Brandon Finnegan. (Although the hope remains the Royals will do the right thing and send him to the minors to continue his development as a starter.)
Could the Royals go with an eight-man bullpen? That would be insanity, but the Royals don’t always do the conventional when it comes to roster management. I bet they will. At least at the start of the season, to keep Coleman on the roster so they have less of a risk of losing him on waivers should they send him down after that first week.
Either way, Young will open the season in Kansas City on a team-friendly deal that will pay him appropriately should he find himself in the rotation. It’s a shrewd move that brings this team some depth in the rotation.