The bullpen was one of the strengths of the 2011 Kansas City Royals and is perceived to be one again heading into 2012. In fact, with the anticipation that the team’s five man starting rotation is likely to be average at best, the Royals have made moves to bolster their already strong relief corps in an effort to forge a ‘super bullpen’.
I am not going to get into the validity of whether a great bullpen can counterbalance a poor rotation. I know a bad bullpen can wreck a good rotation, but whether it works the other way around is yet to be seen. Suffice it to say, the Royals expect to have a top tier bullpen in 2012, which is logical given the fine level of performances they received from so many reliever last year.
Of course, relievers are among the most volatile creatures on the planet. One day you are Brad Lidge, premier closer in baseball, and the next day your, ugh, Brad Lidge. Any Royals fan that was around and aware in 1990 is keenly familiar with the spectacular disintegration of Mark Davis. The list of lock down relievers who imploded is long and ugly and every team in baseball has a long one. Add the factor of youth and the possibility for disappointing results from highly thought of bullpen arms becomes even more likely.
Kansas City, however, has a valuable commodity when it comes to overcoming the potential devastating volatility of a young bullpen: a lot of arms.
Right now, the favorites to break camp in the pen are Joakim Soria, Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Jose Mijares, Aaron Crow and Luis Mendoza. Based on what we have heard out of camp, I don’t know that you can make an argument on the first six (you can make an argument about the logic that leads to the first six and whether it is right or wrong, but you pretty much have to admit that those six names are at the top of a whiteboard in Dayton Moore’s office). With Mendoza pitching well in camp to date (it is admittedly early), one gets the feeling that the Royals will want to keep him around, even if Paulino and Duffy win the final two rotation spots – which I think they will.
If that is the seven man pen, then the Royals will have these familiar names starting the year in Omaha: Kelvin Herrera, Tim Collins, Blake Wood, Everett Teaford, Jeremy Jeffress and Nathan Adcock.
In Herrera, you have the organization’s closer of the future (or at least back of the bullpen fixture of the future, anyway). Possessing the best fastball in camp, the 21 year old would have been a lock to make virtually any bullpen of the past ten years.
While Wood is something of a whipping boy amongst Royals fans, he did throw 69.2 pretty decent major league innings in his second season. He also cut his home run allowed rate in half and upped his strikeouts per nine innings to 8.0 from 5.6 the year before, and did so without elevating his walk rate (which is still too high). Blake is no star, but he has gone from THE 8th inning guy in 2010 to a pitcher who probably won’t make the club in 2012 while improving his game.
Last spring, Tim Collins was the darling of camp. He was a strikeout machine in the minors and Tim got off to a quick start in the majors only to be undone by spotty (at best) control. Still, Collins threw 67 innings last year, struck out 60 and allowed just 52 hits. Early on this spring, he is showing much better ability to consistently throw strikes and, wait for it, he is lefthanded. Like Wood and Herrera, he would have been a lock to make this team in most any other year – hell, he WAS a lock just last year.
While it is possible that Everett Teaford, another lefty, will start if sent back to Omaha, his big league future is probably as a reliever. In 2011, Teaford appeared in 23 games out of the pen, started 3 more and basically did everything you could ask. That is not enough to make this year’s bullpen.
There are four pitchers with experience (save for Herrera, who has the best arm of the bunch), who the Royals can draw on and barely miss a beat.
Broxton not healthy? No problem, pull up Herrera or Wood. Mijares not worth the trouble? Go to Collins or Teaford. One can create quite a doomsday scenario and still have a hard time getting this bullpen down to average.
Let’s say Joakim Soria is ineffective and Jonathan Broxton never healthy: the Royals’ closer would become Greg Holland, with Aaron Crow and Kelvin Herrera setting him up. At the same time, let’s say the league figures Louis Coleman out and Jose Mijares is a disaster. Enter Tim Collins and Blake Wood. That may make you a little nervous, but remember we are talking about sixth and seventh inning guys at this point. Simultaneously, Luis Mendoza reverts to pre-2010 form or has to go into the rotation. The Royals can call upon Everett Teaford (who might be a better options as the long man anyway).
All of the above could happen and the Royals would still have Nathan Adcock in Omaha, who frankly wasn’t bad in 2011 and probably will be better in 2012. They also have an electric arm down there in Jeremy Jeffress. Like many, I am not sure Jeffress will ever ‘figure it out’, but if you have to replace half your bullpen before you resort to calling up a guy who can throw 100 mph, that is pretty nice situation to be in.
All that and we have not mentioned any of the non-roster guys like lefties Tommy Hottovy and Francisley Bueno, the highly thought of Brandon Sisk (yes, another lefty) or the ‘other guy’ in the Melky Cabrera trade: Ryan Verdugo. Another lefty, Verdugo is a guy who would have gotten a serious look when the Royals were stocking their bullpen with the Jamey Wrights of the world. Now, he has zero shot at making this team.
There are few real failsafes in the world, much less in baseball and certainly not when it comes to bullpens, but the 2012 Kansas City Royals’ group comes pretty close. Depending on who is healthy and who is effective, they may not be great, but are almost certain to be good and, at the very worst, likely to be no worse than above average.