Thursday evening the Royals open up the second half of the season at Minnesota. Let’s take a somewhat light-hearted look at some numbers for the remainder of the season.
The Royals play 36 games against teams with winning records and 35 against those with losing records. Forty-one games are on the road and just 30 are at home. Only 18 of those road games, however, are against teams with winning records.
In a nutshell, the Royals play a lot of games on the road, but it is not a particularly daunting road schedule. Is it conceivable that this team, which will probably only be marginally effected by the trading deadline, could play close to .500 ball in the second half? Something on the order of 34-37, maybe?
With the current rotation, it seems unlikely, but should Eric Hosmer continue to improve and with Mike Moustakas seemingly having nowhere to go but up, the Royals could continue to improve on what is already an improved offensive team. Not a lot of championship teams are built by playing 7-6 games every night, but high scoring games often leave the decision making up to the bullpens and there, the Royals generally can stand toe to toe with anyone.
Perhaps the better question is: if the Royals win 34 games or more the rest of the way, would that get you excited about the team’s chances in 2012?
Assuming the Royals stick with both the six man rotation and their plan to recall Danny Duffy after he makes one AAA start, Duffy is scheduled to make 11 more starts in 2011. The remaining five members of the rotation are slated to start 12 times.
- How many of those 11 starts does Duffy actually end up making? (My answer is 8)
- How many of the remaining 5 starters make all 12 scheduled starts? (My answer is two – Hochever & Paulino)
- How many of the six are still on the team at the end of July? (My answer is five. I think Francis is traded)
- Kyle Davies will or will not get his ERA under seven by year’s end? (Yes and Dayton Moore will call it a ‘very optimistic sign’)
- Luke Hochevar will or will not keep his ERA from going over 5.50 by year’s end. (No)
- Mike Montgomery will start how many major league games in 2011? (I think 3)
Factoring in a couple of days off, a regular position player will likely garner an additional 265 plate appearances this season.
- The over/under on Mitch Maier’s plate appearances the rest of the way is 30. I feel bad for Mitch in that he is, by all accounts a quality teammate and serviceable fourth outfielder. On the flipside, he did have a chance over the past few years to make a real impression on management and did not. Maier did not flame out like Kila Ka’aihue (although it’s worth noting that Mitch also got about 400 more at-bats, too), but did nothing to make the Royals think they wanted to put him in an outfield spot everyday, either.
- What’s the likelihood of either Lorenzo Cain or Johnny Giavotella getting even half that many plate appearances in 2011? My guess is virtually zero for Johnny as the Royals love Chris Getz and his average defense and nominal ability to work a count – although I have to pause here and say that I think Getz has been a little better all around as of late. Cain, who Dayton Moore referenced on WHB as being part of the team in the ‘next couple of years’ would also seem to be destined to spending the entire summer in Omaha, unless Moore pulls off a a Francouer/Cabrera trade.
- 265 plate appearances times nine positions, discounting days off, equals a team total of around 2,500 the rest of way. Ned Yost will pinch hit more or less than 10 times during those 2,500 plate appearances? I’m not saying that it is good or bad, but just kind of something to fun to watch.
In the days leading up to the July 31st trade deadline, the Royals play three games at home against Tampa, four road games in Boston and three more on the road at Cleveland.
With trade rumors likely to be swirling, this could be a rather dismal stretch for Royals’ fans. After this string of games and through the end of the year, the number of football games (pro & college, regular and pre-season) you watch will or will not outnumber the number of Royals’ games you watch?
Over his career, Billy Butler has hit a home run every 51 plate appearances prior to the All-Star Break, but sent one out of the park every 34 plate appearances after the All-Star Break.
That puts the over/under on Billy’s second half home runs at eight. You taking the over or the under? How many would Billy need to hit to quiet the majority of his critics?
Alex Gordon and Melky Cabrera are probably the two most pleasant surprises in the first half of the season. By the end of the year which of the following will be true:
- Alex Gordon will still be the most production leftfielder in the American League or Alex Gordon will more resemble the .260/.351/.432 player of 2008
- Melky Cabrera will lead the Royals in plate appearances or will be wearing a different uniform.
Mike Aviles has 10 steals and just 9 walks. Several other Royals have a real shot at having more steals than walks at year’s end.
Chris Getz has 17 steals and 25 walks. Alcides Escobar 14 and 17, while Jeff Francouer has 15 and 20. Will any of the three manage this possibly dubious feat? Will we ever see Mike Aviles in Kansas City again?
Okay, there’s a little fun to get the second half started. Of course, the real fun will be watching Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas hit, Alcides Escobar field, Danny Duffy pitch and Alex Gordon dominate. Feels good to say that last bit without any sarcasm, doesn’t it?