The following is a contribution from Kevin Flanagan who is a reader and commenter of the blog. We’ve spent quite a bit of bandwidth over the last couple of years bemoaning the abysmal Royals defense. Kevin looked at some of the metrics on a position by position basis and came up with a couple of ways the Royals can improve on the field in 2011. We can only hope.
By Kevin Flanagan
I picked up the Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2011 the other day and spent the weekend thumbing through it. It has a number of excellent essays on the current state of sabermetric defensive analysis as well as a glimpse into the future as it moves further from an art and more towards a science.
One of the articles that really caught my eye, as a Royals’ fan, was by John Dewan, the man behind Business Information Systems. BIS is the premier data collector of defensive stats. Much of what is collected they protect from the public and sell to their clients, who are MLB teams and player agents, etc.
So I was pleasantly surprised to find that BIS has presented its team defensive stats for 2008-2010 in an article entitled, “The Pitching and Defensive Splits.”
While individual performances were not divulged, BIS summed the individual defenders’ contributions for each position on each team and presented the numbers by position to come up with a team total of Defensive Runs Saved above average*.
*For an exhaustive explanation of their system of evaluating defense, here is a link.
If you followed the Kansas City Royals last year, or just about any year of the last decade, you already know what the numbers will say: the Royals’ defense was abysmal. Now, thanks to BIS, we have some pretty reliable numbers to quantify it.
The Royals defense ranked last in all of baseball with -88 runs saved (or, stated another way, 88 extra runs allowed by their defense) above average. KC was so bad across the board that only the pitcher position (+1) escaped the carnage. Every non-pitching position posted a negative contribution, led by 3B (-24) and SS (-20).
So, of the 845 total runs allowed last year by the Royals, BIS directly attributes 88 of them to the porous defense, leaving 757 attributable to the pitchers. Stripping out the defensive component for each AL team yields the following Pitching Runs Allowed for 2010:
White Sox 674
Red Sox 688
Blue Jays 774
The salient point here is that while KC allowed the most total runs in the AL last year, their pitching was not entirely to blame. Instead of having the worst team pitching, now we can see that they were actually 10th out of 14 teams, a modest improvement to be sure, but important to know as the Royals decide how and where to allocate their assets for next season.
Since the Royals offense scored 664 runs last year, one can estimate that if they had played just league average defense in 2010, KC’s record would have been more like 70 or 71 wins instead of 67.
Now go one step further, and theoretically substitute the league’s best defensive contribution, the Oakland A’s at +74, for Kansas City’s worst of -88, and you have a swing of 162 runs, or exactly 1 per game. This would have the effect of lowering their runs allowed from a league worst of 845 to 683, which would have been good for fourth best in the AL. To put this in perspective, if the Royals defense had been as good as Oakland’s, then all of a sudden what looks like the worst pitching staff in the league is suddenly in the top four! You’d be essentially lopping almost a full run off of every pitcher’s ERA. Greinke still looks like an ace, Bruce Chen looks more like a #2 than 4, Hochevar becomes a solid #3, and even Kyle Davies looks like a solid #4 man. And Sean O’Sullivan…well, nevermind.
And consequently, KC would have been more like a 79-83 team in 2010 and this offseason we would all be talking about making just a few tweaks here and there in order to be a legitimate contender… and maybe Zack Greinke might be talking about how this team is about to take off and he’d really like to sign on for a few more years.
We can now see that these defensive effects, subtle though they may be to the naked eye, can have a huge effect on a team’s winning percentage. And we can more correctly identify the team’s needs. Here is how KC ranked in 2010:
10th in Runs Scored
10th in Pitching Runs Allowed
14th in Defensive Runs Allowed
While the defense is the worst of the three, conveniently it is the easiest one, potentially, to upgrade. As previously mentioned, the two worst offenders were 3B (Callaspo and Betemit) and SS (Betancourt). Mike Moustakas will take over at 3B sometime this year, if not on Opening Day then possibly by early May. The most pessimistic timetable (barring injury) is early summer. From what I’ve been able to gather, Moose combines an above average arm with slightly below average range. He is also a 100% effort kind of player, and from that standpoint alone he will be a huge upgrade over Betemit. If Moose turns out to be an average defensive 3B overall in the Major Leagues, that would be a difference of 24 runs saved over 2010.
In late October John Dewan offered up this tidbit from his website: Yuniesky Betancourt cost his team more runs, at -21, than any other defensive player in baseball this year. In an ironic twist of fate for the Royals, the best defensive player in all of baseball, Brendan Ryan of the St Louis Cardinals, not only plays the same position, SS, but is also imminently available right now, and it would appear that the asking price shouldn’t be too high. St. Louis just traded for Ryan Theriot and has already appointed him as their starting SS for 2011*. Brendan Ryan won’t hit a whole lot, but substituting his defense (+24) for Yuni’s is a positive swing of 45 runs. This may be the single most important move the Royals could make this offseason to improve their team. The difference defensively between Ryan and Yuni is equivalent to the offensive difference between Yuni and Hanley Ramirez… yeah, think about that for a second. Yet Ryan can probably be had for a middle reliever or a AA prospect, either way its relatively painless.
*With their staff built around the Dave Duncan pitch-to-contact/throw ground balls philosophy, don’t be surprised if there is some serious regression from their pitching this year… Joe Strauss, beat reporter for the Cards, recently said about Brendan Ryan that he became a ‘clubhouse irritant to his manager and veteran teammates’ last year. You don’t write this about a guy on the team you cover everyday unless you are pretty sure he won’t be around next year.
Another sore spot for the Royals defensively in 2010 came, surprisingly enough, in RF where they were -13 runs above average. It would be interesting to know the individual contributors in this case, but evidently David DeJesus had more trouble adjusting to the position than I would have guessed. He played 597 innings in RF (42% of the team’s total) while Mitch Maier accounted for 25%, Jose Guillen 12%, Willie Bloomquist 10%, and Jai Miller 8%. A projected platoon in 2011 of David Lough with the defensive mined Brett Carroll seems likely to be a considerable improvement. That doesn’t seem like a very probable event at this point, though, so it will be interesting to see what Dayton Moore does and says the rest of the offseason about a right fielder.
Another outfield position that could see immediate and considerable improvement is CF, where Jarrod Dyson seems poised to take over. Royals CF last year, comprised mostly of Maier (37%), Blanco (24%) and Rick Ankiel (15%), logged a rating of -4. Dyson, while only playing in 9% of the team’s innings in CF, wowed both the scouts and the statheads with his defensive play. His defensive ability appears to be on par with the best in the game, including Seattle’s Franklin Gutierrez, Houston’s Michael Bourne, and Detroit’s rookie Austin Jackson. Those 3 teams had CF ratings of 17, 15, and 27 runs saved above average. If he hits enough to make the team and play everyday, Dyson could save his team 20-25 runs above what the Royals got from their 2010 CF’s.
At 2B, Aviles (53%) and Getz (37%) were the prime suspects in a -12 rating, and it appears the two will share the position again in 2011. However, I think there is a good chance that both players improve if they stay healthy. Aviles, coming back early from tommy john surgery, looked very tentative for most of the season. In Aviles only other full MLB season, 2008, he put up very good defensive numbers. Getz also battled various injuries most of the year.
Left Field was just a minor crisis for the Royals last year at -8 runs above average. Podsednik played 56% of the innings there while Alex Gordon logged 486 innings, or 34% of the season. Again, it would be nice to know the individual contributions here, but judging from UZR/150 at Fangraphs, Podsednik probably deserves the lion’s share of the blame for the negative rating. Gordon, in fact, looked pretty good out there (and from UZR/150) and I think its reasonable to expect he might be league average in LF as soon as this year.
Catcher and 1B both rated as -4 for the Royals in 2010. A higher percentage of Kaaihue (or Hosmer?) in 2011 should pull that number at least up to average, if not slightly above. I’m not quite as optimistic at catcher, however. I am a fan of Bryan Pena and am looking forward to seeing what he can do playing full time but it seems unlikely that his defense will be as good as Kendall’s (not that his was that good). Interestingly, in 2008 and 2009 John Buck and Miguel Olivo, neither of whom are known for their defensive chops, combined for a -5 rating at the position. Not significantly worse than what Kendall and Pena showed this year.
In summary, with just one important acquisition, Brendan Ryan, and a couple of natural upgrades at 3B and each of the OF positions and some good health, the Royals could actually improve significantly in the defensive department next year over 2010:
3B (Moose) 20-25 runs saved
SS (Ryan) 40-50 runs saved
CF (Dyson) 20-25 runs saved
RF (Lough/Carroll) 5-15 runs saved
LF (Gordon) 5-10 runs saved
2B (Aviles/Getz) 5+/- runs saved
1B (Kila) 4+/- runs saved
Altogether this represents a savings of 100-135 defensive runs over 2010, which would put the Royals back around league average to slightly above and would net them 10-14 more wins. Of course, the big key to this is acquiring Brendan Ryan… Did I mention that replacing Betancourt with Brendan Ryan might be the single most important thing Dayton Moore can do to improve this team this winter?