Love it or hate it, the Greinke trade seems to have generated one common feeling throughout the land of Royals’ blogs: this, at last, really is The Process.
For better or worse, after somehow getting older at the major league level over the past few years and getting worse at the same time, the trade of Zack Greinke really, really feels like the beginning. I should clarify in that The Process has been underway for some time and that is evidenced by the glowing reviews of what is generally perceived as the best farm system in baseball. However, The Process has not been in evidence at the major league level in any truly perceptible permutations until last week.
While there are learned Royals’ fans who, for very logical reason, are skeptical of the return on the Greinke move, but they are also intrigued to see what happens the next couple of years. The Process is either working or leading all of us down another dark hallway, but it is now, truly underway. That’s got to be worth something.
If The Process is in full effect at all levels now, it certainly is an inexpensive little mechanism. The Royals are likely to have a payroll south of $50 million and be pretty awful. In 2012, however, they are still likely to have a payroll under or around $50 million and be considerably better. In theory that means that come 2013 when you might be looking at signing some of the young players to long term deals and maybe add an actual impact veteran free agent (‘actual’ being something different than any free agent signee of the Moore era not named Meche) they should have a stash of cash with which to do so.
However, I have some vague recollection of either David Glass or Dayton Moore mentioning something along the lines that the Royals look at payroll/budget issues on a ‘year to year basis’. I was unable to find that actual quote, but it is a shame if my memory is right on this topic.
You cannot have ‘a process’ without a budgetary plan that spans four or five years instead of just one. It is foolhardy, in fact. Hopefully, David Glass (who by the way is not an idiot when it comes to money) has told Dayton Moore that he has $400 million to spend on payroll over the next six years or something along those lines. I just picked those numbers out of the air, but what should be the timeframe and the total dollars amount?
Anyway, the point of all this is that the Royals are going to make some money this year and probably a good deal of money in 2012 and even 2013 if this all works out. A young roster is a cheap roster and if your young players are as good as we all think/hope/pray they are, then the revenues will be up in the coming years. If Dayton Moore has ‘The Process’, than Mr. Glass better have ‘A Plan’ when it comes to banking some profit to have some ammunition when it comes time to go the table with Scott Boras.
Okay, now a little fun (or agony for those of you who hate lineup projections). How will the Royals’ lineup mutate through 2011?
If Opening Day brings us this:
Pena C, Ka’iahue DH, Butler 1B, Getz 2B, Escobar SS, Aviles 3B, Gordon LF, Cabrera CF, Francoeur RF; with a rotation of Hochevar, Mazzaro, Davies, O’Sullivan and somebody. Then how many of those fourteen guys will be in the everyday lineup on June 1st? August 1st? September 15th?
Well, you know Jason Kendall will be back at catcher and pretty much can count on Mike Moustakas at third base come June and Lorenzo Cain in the outfield no later than August, so there’s three. By mid-September is it conceivable that as many as six position players will be different and three starting pitchers? Is it likely that of those NINE changes, at least eight will be dramatic upgrades?
2011 might suck record wise. In fact, it WILL suck record wise, but I think it will be the most interesting season since maybe as far back as 2003. I know, I know: it’s just another year of ‘wait until next year’, but it feels different. Let’s hope it actually turns out to really be different.