Now the draft is complete, we can focus on the next date on the Royals calendar… The trade deadline.
My task for you is to rank the top three in order, from most likely to be traded to least likely. Here are the candidates:
No one runs hotter or colder than Guillen. He’s been decent of late, with a line of .246/.367/.523 over his last 19 games. Of course, that only means that starting about June 15 or so, he’s going to go into hibernation until the All-Star Break.
And whether you like it or not, Guillen is the premier power threat on this team. He leads the Royals with a .229 ISO and his 13 home runs are almost double the second place hitter (Alberto Callaspo has seven.)
The Royals would have to eat the balance of his salary and would probably net a B-level prospect at best. I don’t think GMDM has the stomach to get so little in return.
The downside to all of this is that under the current Elias rankings as provided by MLB Trade Rumors, the Royals wouldn’t get any compensation for Guillen when he departs as a free agent this winter. Not that they would anyway… Even if Guillen were classified as a Type A or B, the Royals would have to offer arbitration. And since there’s no way Guillen will top $10 million in salary next year, there’s no way he’d turn that down. This is the ultimate lose-lose situation.
The Royals hold the option on DeJesus next year at $6 million. He’s already a two win above replacement (WAR) player this year, so at that price tag, if he can maintain his level of performance, he’s a bargain.
Here’s an interesting thought. Currently, DeJesus is a Type B free agent. Suppose he goes on a tear and pushes his ranking to a Type A. Don’t you think it would be possible the Royals decline the option and offer him arbitration instead? If DeJesus rejects arbitration, he becomes a free agent at a time his value really couldn’t be higher. That would be the smart play for DeJesus… He could get a three year deal at $20 million, couldn’t he? Then, the Royals could snag an extra first round pick in a draft that is supposed to be much, much deeper than the one just completed.
Zack Greinke, Joakim Soria
I listed them together because I can just imagine the riots at the K if either one of them were dealt. We’ve hashed this out before, but Soria has club options through 2014 so there’s absolutely no way the Royals are sending him anywhere. 2013 and 2014 are the new 2008 and 2009… Years when the team is supposed to contend. As the only current member signed through those years, he’s going to stick around.
Isn’t this always the way… Do Royal general managers walk around the Winter Meetings with a “kick me” sign taped to their back? It’s like Reggie Sanders all over again… A “veteran” spare part with no value to a good team, signed to a deal in the hopes the team can spin him to a contender at the deadline, only to miss a huge chunk of the season with an injury.
I wish. The only GM who thinks he’s any good already has him on his team.
His name never comes up in these discussions. Probably because we like to pretend he isn’t on the team. I suppose he could net a C level prospect from a team desperate for relief pitching.
Prediction: Whoever trades for him won’t make the playoffs.
Brian Bannister, Kyle Davies
Both are coming up on their third year of arbitration eligibility. Both are serviceable, back of the rotation starters. Either one has some (limited) value.
However, I don’t think the Royals will deal either one. When you have to bring Bruce Chen into your rotation when one of your starters goes down, that’s a serious indication you lack starting pitching depth. Those guys will stay at least another year until the young arms are ready. GMDM is keeping his fingers crossed this will be in 2012, because there doesn’t appear to be a backup plan in place.
I left Billy Butler, Mike Aviles and Callaspo out on purpose. These three aren’t going anywhere. I could be wrong, so if you disagree, let me know why.
If you forced me to rank the top three, here’s my list:
Kind of lame, but I really have no idea. That’s probably because I put the odds of the Royals making a deal at less than 25%.
Get to ranking. I’m interested to see what everyone thinks.