MVN: Most Valuable Network

The common theme coming out of the Royals' organization as of late (as the pressure had mounted to do something and the sensitivity factor of those 'in the know' has reached the silly portion of the meter) has been that the team has simply been derailed by injuries.   It is hard logic to dispute given that Kansas City has lost its centerfielder, shortstop and third baseman.

For that matter, even with Mike Aviles playing hurt (and ineffectively mind you) and Alex Gordon out after 21 at-bats, the Royals were still off to an 18-11 start.   Yet, that high water mark roughly coincides with the start of Coco Crisp's shoulder maladies that would eventually end in season ending surgery and send the team into this sort of murky irrelevance within which it currently resides.  Three starters - three KEY starters - gone from your opening day lineup is a lot for any team to absorb.

Statstically though, just how crippling were those injuries?  

In 2008, the Royals scored 691 runs:  an average of 4.27 per game.    That's obviously not a great number, but it is far better than the 328 scored thus far in 2009, which translates into a paltry 3.95 runs per game.   That is a pace that puts Kansas City at just 640 runs for the entire season.   You can have a rotation full of Zack Greinkes and four Joakim Sorias in the bullpen and still have a hard time winning consistently with that amount of offense.  

Given the above, you could easily make the argument that the loss of Crisp, Aviles and Gordon is the reason for this putrid offense.   A little luck when it came to injuries and yeah, Dayton Moore did assemble a team ready to compete in 2009.   Do the numbers back up this quite plausible explanation?

Since we are talking about runs, we will use the Runs Created statistic as our measurement today.   Let's compare 2009 to 2008 on a position by position basis.   In doing so, I am not going to grind out the numbers for every player to appear at each position:  instead we'll try to compare the everyday lineup of each year as best we can.

CATCHER

In 2008, John Buck got sixty-five percent of the starts behind the dish.   This year, Miguel Olivo has received nearly seventy percent.   Now, it gets a little murky here, given that each was/is the other's backup, but we will move forward anyway.

Buck created 0.36 runs per game last season (38.7 over 109 games).   Olivo, thus far in 2009, is creating 0.44 runs per game.   If Miguel ends up catching 109 games in 2009, he would account for 8.7 more runs this season.  That is not a 'set the world on fire' upgrade, but it is an offensive plus over 2008.

FIRST BASE

You have to hang with me here and seperate Billy Butler v2008 from Billy Butler v2009.   Last year, the Royals predominate first baseman was the gritty Ross Gload (I think Craig still has his basement done in a homage to Gload, by the way).   Ross provided 0.33 runs per game over 122 games (111 of those at first base).   This year, Billy Butler has given the Royals 0.54 runs per game at the position. 

Even if Billy plays only 111 games at first, that is an additional 23 runs in 2009 at first base.

DESIGNATED HITTER

Okay, version 2008 of Billy Butler functioning mostly as the DH, was worth 0.41 runs per game.  Yes, Billy also played some first, Olivo DH'd some and so did Guillen, but the most common lineup had Butler in this spot.   Mike Jacobs, as much as he has struggled in 2009, is putting up 0.41 runs per game.   That tells us two things:  Billy Butler has gotten better (duh!) and the Royals are even 2008 versus 2009 at designated hitter.

SECOND BASE

Through 86 games last season, Mark Grudzielanek was providing 0.52 runs per game.   After his injury, Alberto Callaspo gave the Royals 0.38 runs per game.  Overall, the 2008 second base position was worth roughly 0.46 runs per game in 2008.  (No, I did not include Esteban German or Jason Smith, but this number is close enough).

In 2009, Alberto Callaspo is giving Kansas City 0.55 runs per game - like me, you might have expected that the team was getting more production than they did out of Grudz, but Mark was having a pretty solid year prior to being Gloaded in early August. 

Overall, the Royals, over the course of 160 games can expect 14.4 additional runs out of second base than they received in 2008.

SHORTSTOP

Okay, Tony Pena Jr. was/is/forever will be an awful offensive player.   That said, the 'everyday' lineup for Kansas City for most of the season thankfully did not include him.  Instead, Mike Aviles gave the Royals 0.65 runs per game over 102 games.

In 2009, an injured Aviles was only marginally different than the two months of a healthy TPJ was in 2008.   They, in essence, cancel each other out and allow us to compare Aviles 2008 directly to Willie Bloomquist, who has basically taken over the everyday shortstop job.

Bloomquist, admittedly playing multiple positions, has produced 0.43 runs per game for the Royals so far in 2009.   Over the course of 102 games (the amount played by Aviles in 08) that means Kansas City is losing 22 runs.   That cancels out the gain the team enjoys at first base, right there.

THIRD BASE

Alex Gordon produced 0.58 runs per game in 2008.   Mark Teahen has produced 0.53 runs per game in 2009.   Yes, we all assumed that Gordon would be vastly improved in 2009, but that is a bit of leap of faith.   For now, we have to consider Teahen 09 v Gordon 08 a virtual wash.

LEFT FIELD

I am going to put Mark Teahen here, even though Jose Guillen should probably be considered the 2008 everyday leftfielder.   That allows us to compare Jose to Jose in right.

Last season, Teahen produced 0.49 runs per game in the outfield (and yes, I'm ignoring the string of games he played at third late last season and lumping all his production into this category - sue me).   David DeJesus has thus far in 2009 produced 0.46 runs per game and is giving every appearance that he is on his way back to normal production levels.

Even a struggling DeJesus is giving his team just about the same number of runs as Teahen did in 2008.

CENTERFIELD

DeJesus, the 2008 centerfield version, produced 0.62 runs per game last year.   Coco Crisp was producing 0.53 runs in 2009 before getting hurt and since then, Mitch Maier has produced a paltry 0.20 runs per game.

The difference between Crisp and Maier is currently projecting out as 36 runs over 120 games - a devastating loss - but the difference between Crisp and the DeJesus of last year is actually a negative for this year's team to the tune of about 11 runs over the same 120 games.

RIGHTFIELD

Jose 2008 was annoying, but produced 0.47 runs per game.   Jose 2009 has not been annoying (at least verbally) and has produced only 0.40 runs per game.   That is a deficit of 11 runs per game over 150 games (because you can never take Guillen out of the lineup apparently).

AND THIS MEANS WHAT?
We can get into a lot of conclusions from the above, but the premise of the column was 'did injuries decimate the offense?'   Under that criteria we can look at third base and see that Mark Teahen had given the Royals essentially the same production at the position as Alex Gordon did in 2008.   Yes, we expected more out of Gordon in 2009, but we only have the numbers actually produced to work with here.

We can look at centerfield and see that the loss of Coco Crisp, defense and intangibles aside, was a crippling blow when coupled with the everyday appearance of Mitch Maier.   While Crisp's production did not equal that of DeJesus from last year, it was close enough to be a non-factor IF DeJesus had been producing at his usual levels in left.

Finally, the loss of Aviles was, indeed huge.   It has essentially negated any benefit the Royals would have received from the improvement in Billy Butler.   

The club almost certainly could have overcome one of these three major injuries and, quite possibly, even two of them (especially with Gordon coming back shortly), but all three was simply too much.   

By no means is this a call to absolve Dayton Moore for the club's abysmal offensive performance or should this be interpeted as a call to hold the line and not make moves.   It simply shows that three long-term injuries to three regular players is, indeed, one too many.  

 

 

Let us remember this as the day we, as a nation, laid Michael Jackson to rest and as the day we, as Royals Nation, celebrated the debut of the gritty Ryan Freel.  Both are seismic events in our common history.  And I think we will all remember exactly where we were, when we learned that Freel would don the Royal blue.

Whew... Got that out of my system.  The snark was just killing me.  More Freel-goodness at the bottom of the post...

Meanwhile there was a three game winning streak to protect in Detroit on Tuesday.  This Tigers team currently serves as Exhibit A of the wretchedness of the AL Central this year.  Like every other team in the division, they're unbelievably incomplete.  In the Tigers case, their hitting is weak and their bullpen is dreadful.  (Sounds familiar... Except their lineup is just a touch better than the one SABR Trey fills out on a nightly basis.)  It's been the starting pitching that's kept them around for so long, with Justin Verlander being one of the studs of the rotation.  With his high body count (strikeouts) and his solid control, he's exactly the kind of starter the Royals should fear.

He was sharp enough on Tuesday, striking out 11 in just six innings.  He was betrayed by his defense a couple of times and the Royals got to him for once, but he still had enough to outlast the Royals.  

What's depressing was while the Royals were able to get to Verlander, they were unable to scratch the Tiger bullpen for any runs.  Four relievers combined for three hits and three walks over three innings, but the Royals just couldn't come up with the key hit.  Witness...

7th inning

The Royals pick up a pair of one out singles, putting runners at the corners.  Billy Butler grounds into an inning-ending double play.

8th inning

The Royals can't cash a leadoff walk to Mark Teahen.  He moves to second with two down when Alberto Callaspo draws a walk, but both are stranded when Miguel Olivo waves at a 101 mph fastball up and out of the zone.

9th inning

Again, the Royals get their leadoff man aboard and again, they can't advance him past second.  This time, it's newcomer Freel who singles to start the inning.  He moves up on a one out walk to Wee Willie Bloomquist.  (How perfect is it to see Wee Willie and Farney in the same lineup?)  Both are stranded when Butler and Teahen fly out and strike out respectively.

The Detroit bullpen is going to give you exactly these kind of opportunities.  If your offense isn't good enough to take advantage, then you deserve to lose.

(There's no way Detroit stays in first place through the month of July.  That pen is just too incendiary.  I'll stick with my pre-season choice of Minnesota.  They're the least flawed team, and in this division that counts for a lot.)

--  How many more starts will the Royals give Bruce Chen?  He allowed four hits, but three of them left the park.  And on top of that, he walked five (although one was intentional.)

To me, Chen is an enigma.  He had eight swinging strikes, meaning he had some deception.  But then he laid those home run pitches on a silver platter.  What is it that makes that happen?  Laziness?  Lack of focus?  Maybe he's just not that good to begin with.  

Either way, with Ponson pitching well in Omaha on his rehab assignment, you have to think the clock is ticking on Chen's time in the rotation.  

--  What a drag it is to watch Guillen limp off the field... Again. 

Guillen isn't any good, but on this team, he's just about the best we have.  To have to remove him from the lineup so early in the game robs this team of another at bat, and presumably, their best chance to win.

Especially when Pena is going to go down on three pitches.

Now, a few more thoughts on Freel...

-- Let me go on the record and say I don't believe the Freel trade is a precursor to another deal Dayton Moore has in the works.  I've been going through his past moves and I can't find a single occasion where one deal was made as a conduit to another.  Am I missing something?  

Also, isn't Freel a GMDM kind of player?  Gritty, hard-nosed, plays the game the right way, speaks to an imaginary friend, declining skill-set kind of player.  He's just another cog in the Royals machine.  A machine sorely in need of WD-40.  Or OBP.  Take your pick.  He was available, so GMDM snapped him up before someone grabbed him for their Triple-A roster.  It's a good thing the Royals can identify players they need and grab them with lightening speed.  You'd hate to see Freel hitting popups in Rochester.  

Instead, it all makes sense.  Freel is here because he can play a multitude of positions and probably because he's a "good clubhouse guy."  

I know you want to think there's another move coming, but that's because you want to think our GM can assemble a major league caliber baseball team.  I have doubts on both counts. 

Freel's not the first domino.  He's the replacement for Coco Crisp.

-- A commenter pointed out in Clark's post about the Freel trade something I've been thinking about... Exactly how much the Royals are paying Freel.  It's an interesting case of following the money.

Begin in 2007 when Freel signed a two-year contract extension with the Cincinnati Reds.  The total value of that contract was $7 million, with $4 million due in 2009.  (See?  The Royals front office doesn't have the market cornered on bizarre contracts to light-hitting utility guys.)

Then, the Reds traded Freel to Baltimore last December with the Reds paying $2 million of his salary.  That means the Orioles are on the hook for $2 million.  

Not so fast.

Freel is soon dealt to the Cubs for "the fastest man in the MLB" Joey Gathright.  Part of the deal is the Orioles will pay Freel's salary with the Cubs continuing to pick up the tab on Gathright.  Gathright is making $800,000.  

Now that Freel has been shipped to our lovely city, it would seem the salary associated with him (Gathright's $800,000) moves along as well.  

So if I have this straight, in some bizarre way, the Royals are paying Joey Gathright.

Gotta love the irony.

-- I love the posturing by the Royals about how it was "a difficult move" to DFA Luis Hernandez to make room for Freel on the roster.  You would think there would be smiles all around that the Royals were able to shed not only some dead weight from the 25-man roster, but that they were able to shed some duplicate dead weight.  Not so fast.  Hernandez is "a positive presence" on the team.  I wonder if they've seen his line of .204/.235/.204.  

I dig professionalism and work ethic as much as anyone, but the Royals front office seems to forget this is a results-based business.  Do they look at the standings?

It is definitely trade rumor season - I even did my own little part yesterday by speculating that the Ryan Freel acquisition was a precursor to more moves by the Royals.   Now, Bob Dutton at the Kansas City Star believes that move makes the Royals buyers, not sellers, but I still stand by my sentiment that there are moves yet to come.

 

While there has been talk swirling around Brian Bannister and even Gil Meche as of late, the primary rumor name on the offensive side of the ball has been Mark Teahen.  I have no idea if Kansas City is seriously shopping him or not, but he is an interesting discussion topic given that three players with similar, but certainly not identical, skill sets have already been dealt.   That gives us some idea of what the trade market actually might be - at least at this point in time.

 

Let's break down the three deals.

 

Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals

 

At 34, Mark DeRosa is seven years older than Teahen and came into 2009 with 893 major league games and 2,650 at-bats under his belt.   He sported a career line of 279/348/422 playing second, third and the outfield and was right on target prior to his trade this season (270/342/457).   DeRosa did not get regular playing time until 2006 and had three remarkably similar seasons:

2006 -296/357/456

2007 -293/371/420

2008 -285/376/481

 

Having hit a career high 21 home runs in 2008 (along with 30 doubles), DeRosa is on his way to matching or surpassing that number with 13 homers already in 2009.

 

In return for DeRosa, the Indians received 23 year old reliever Chris Perez and a player to be named later.  In Perez, you have a strikeout pitcher who saved 7 games for the Cards in 2008 and struck out 42 hitters in 41.2 innings of major league work.   In the minors, Perez averaged 12 strikeouts per nine innings and has a 9.8 K/9 mark in 67 innings of major league work.   He could very well develop into a premier closer in the next couple of years and at worst he probably profiles out to something like Juan Cruz.   I think you could reasonably equate Perez's current value to that of Leo Nunez or Ramon Ramirez.

 

The PTBNL is been speculated to be another power reliever, possibly Jess Todd or Francisco Samuel.   Todd was a 2^nd round pick in 2007, is also 23 years old  and is the closer for the Card's AAA club in Memphis:  currently sporting a 46/9 K/BB ratio over 37 innings of work after posting extremely good numbers as a starter across three different levels in 2008.   Todd destroys righthanded hitters with a cut fastball and excellent slider.   Although their stuff is different, in 'organizational stature' I would offer up Carlos Rosa as a comparison, although Todd has certainly enjoyed greater success this season in his move to the bullpen.

 

Samuel is 22 years old with a big fastball and nasty slider.  He is operating at the High A level this year, having struck out 39 batters in 31 innings, but also walking 28.   If Samuel can get at least some control (his career walk rate is almost one per inning) he will be virtually impossible to hit.   I guess you could compare him to a Henry Barrera from the Royals system.

 

The Indians were after young, power arms for their bullpen and, if the PTBNL turns out to be Jess Todd, they got two major league ready ones.

 

Eric Hinske to the Yankees

 

Now, another 'corner guy' who recently switched teams was 31 year old Eric Hinske.   A former rookie of the year winner, Hinske brought 957 games and 3,012 big league at-bats worth of experience to the Yankees.   His career line stands at 254/337/436 with 106 homers, but after smacking 20 home runs in 381 at-bats for the Rays in 2008, Hinske had a slugging percentage of just .368 in 106 at-bats for the Pirates prior to the trade.

 

In return, Pittsburgh netted two players currently in High A ball, both of whom will turn 24 in August.  

 

Now, another 'corner guy' who recently switched teams was 31 year old Eric Hinske.   A former rookie of the year winner, Hinske brought 957 games and 3,012 big league at-bats worth of experience to the Yankees.   His career line stands at 254/337/436 with 106 homers, but after smacking 20 home runs in 381 at-bats for the Rays in 2008, Hinske had a slugging percentage of just .368 in 106 at-bats for the Pirates prior to the trade.

 

In return, Pittsburgh netted two players currently in High A ball, both of whom will turn 24 in August.   Eric Fryer is a catcher who slugged .506 in 20-08 with 15 steals, but was slugging just .344 in 2009 with 11 steals through 59 games.  Originally a tenth round pick of Milwaukee in 2007, the Pirates will be Fryer's third organization in three years.  There are a lot of 'Fryer types' in every organization and the Royals have Ryan Eigsti and Joe Billick as examples.

 

The second player acquired was right-hander Casey Erickson who has 60 minor league games and 23 starts under his belt - all at A ball or below.   Over 182 innings, he has allowed 197 hits, walked 43 and struck out 169 on his way to a nice 3.07 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.   He is quite obviously old for his level   I might compare him in value to a Matt Kniginyzky or Edward Paulino of the Royals' system.

 

 

Scott Hairston to Oakland

 

The final trade we will examine is that of Scott Hairston to Oakland in exchange for Ryan Webb, Craig Italiano AND a PTBNL. 

 

In Hairston, you have a 29 year old, who has played some second and third but is mostly an outfielder at this point.   Over 398 major league games, Scott has compiled a modest line of 257/314/470 with 51 homers and has never appeared in more than 112 games in any one season.

 

In return, the Athletics gave up their 2004 fourth round pick in right hander Ryan Webb.   Added to the 40 man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft this past off season, Webb had converted almost exclusively to relief this season at AAA.   He had thrown 44.2 innings, struck out 37, walked 15 and allowed 57 hits at the time of this trade.   Over his minor league career, Ryan had thrown 550 innings with a 5.30 ERA, averaging 7.5 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9.   The Royals do not really have a comparable pitcher to Webb at the AAA level, but you can pretty much see what you are getting here.

 

Twenty-three year old Craig Italiano was a prospect after posting 1.16 ERA over 14 Low A ball starts in 2008, but imploded to a 9.90 ERA upon his promotion to the High A level.   Still at High A this season, Craig had 75 strikeouts in 76.2 innings, but had also been tagged for 40 walks and 83 hits on his way to a 5.63 ERA.   Keep in mind, however, that this is all in the California League, which is something other than 'pitcher friendly'.   Although their styles are nothing alike, I might assign Italiano a value similar to Rowdy Hardy's prior to the season.

 

Rumors are that the Player to Be Named Later will be 'significant' in this deal, so it makes it even harder to evaluate, but the Padres certainly got more out this deal than the Pirates did out of the Hinske trade.

 

So, where does Mark Teahen fit into these scenarios?   Let's compare the career lines of the players:

 

DeRosa (34) - 279/348/422

Hinske (31) - 254/337/436

Hairston (29) - 257/314/470

Teahen (27) - 268/332/421

 

Looking at those numbers and, most importantly, the age of each player certainly gives Royals' fans some hope that should Dayton Moore decide to pull the trigger on a Teahen trade that they might net more in return than any of the other three players.  

 

Sure, DeRosa is the better player right now, but he is seven years old and more expensive than Teahen.   He brought a major league reliever with upside and either another major league ready reliever or a power arm with a boatload of potential in return.   Given that, would it be completely unrealistic to expect a nearly major league ready position player in return for Mark?

 

Perhaps that is wishful thinking, perhaps it is not.   This time next month, we will know for sure.

This afternoon, the Royals acquired Ryan Freel (and cash) from the Chicago Cubs for a player to be named later.   Like me, you might have just yawned.

After all, Freel is a 33 year old utility man who was designated for assignment by the Cubs with a career OPS+ of just 89 and a career slugging percentage of just .371.   He cannot play shortstop, dabbles at second base, plays some third and all three outfield positions.   Frankly, he is pretty much an older version of Tug Hulett with more major league experience.

This is a unnewsworthy move for the Royals, particularly since they have an open spot on their 40 man roster.   You can also be assured that the PTBNL is someone in the system that is nowhere near the majors - unless the cash amount is more than I think - and likely a player who will never be anywhere near the majors without a ticket in his hand.  So, you might ask, why even bother posting?

With the post All-Star Break return of Alex Gordon pushing Mark Teahen into the super utility role, the Royals have absolutely no need for a player with Ryan Freel's skill set and that is what's noteworthy about acquiring Ryan Freel:  he is a completely unnecessary spare part....unless there is another deal looming on the horizon.

It could be that Teahen is on the move, or Jose Guillen or David DeJesus, Alberto Callaspo and even Willie Bloomquist for that matter.   I really have no idea.   What I do know is that acquiring Freel, as painless as it may be, serves no purpose other than to facilitate another move.

My guess is that next move will cause a reaction other than a yawn.

Short post today as I'm shaking the holiday cobwebs away...

So let's touch on just about the only good thing to happen to the Royals in the last couple of months:  The selection of Zack Greinke to the American League All-Star team.

Greinke has been in dominant form this season.  Here's a laundry list of where he ranks among all AL starters:

ERA:  2.00  1st
K/9:  8.9  3rd
BB/9:  1.4  2nd
K/BB: 6.3  1st
HR/9:  0.3  1st
IP: 121.1  1st

Just dominant.

(He also ranks first in Wins, which is meaningful only in fantasy baseball and shutouts.)

But we've known that since his first start this year in Chicago.  Now it's time for him to get some national love.  

As fans, we always worry about our guy (yes, the Royals lone representative) getting into the game.  Probably because since 2001, our team's contribution to the game has been three Mike Sweeney pinch hit appearances (without a hit) and 1.2 innings from Joakim Soria last year.  We probably won't have to worry about that this year.  Greinke has the resume to start this one.  And if for some reason, manager Joe Maddon caters to the Red Sox nation and starts feel-good knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (who's making his first All-Star appearance at the age of 207) Greinke should be number two in the pitching rotation.

(Brace yourself for it.  I can totally see Maddon handing the ball to Wakefield to start this one and then telling everyone he liked the idea of the slow knuckleball for the first go round of the batting order before Greinke's heat.  Of course, it works the other way around too.  Whatever.)

It's also a reminder that GMDM didn't totally have a horrible off season.  Actually, he did.  But signing Greinke was the lone bright spot.  It's nice when you can point to something that's gone right in what's quickly become another lost season.

A couple of facts about the Royals selection:

-- It's the fourth consecutive year the Royals have had a pitcher selected as their lone All-Star representative.

2006: Mark Redman
2007: Gil Meche
2008: Joakim Soria

-- The last hitter to represent the Royals was Mike Sweeney in 2005.

-- The last time the Royals had two players selected to the team was in 2003, when Sweeney and Mike MacDougal were selected.  Neither one got in the game.

-- Ken Harvey's selection in 2004 was a bizarre low All-Star point for this franchise.  Last I heard, Harvey was toiling for the Kansas City T-Bones in the Independent League.

I debated about this column for a while,only because plenty (too much?) has already been written.   First, uber-blogger Rany was banned, then he wasn't and the whole thing was broken down by Sam Mellinger.  All the while, the Royals were in the process of starting the month by scoring ONE run in THREE games.   Yeah, what is written on the internet is the pressing issue for the organization.

Of course, the issue was Rany's calling for the firing of team trainer Nick Swartz.  Does it matter if that is fair or not?  Does it matter if Rany is 'not in the clubhouse day in day out'?   Does it matter if an employee was criticized in public? 

Answers:

No, the world is not fair and, in fact, given that the organization has contended just once since 1994, they should be at least somewhat pleased that anyone out there is still a big enough fan to even care.

No, you don't have to be 'in the clubhouse' to see that the injury situation has been mismanged this season, at best, and flat out bungled at worst.  

And finally, no, you work in a very public business, deal with it.  

I might be more concerned about why my organization has promtional nights when the Cardinals and Yankees are in town.  One might reasonably assume that 30,000 are going to show up on those nights without fireworks and giveaways.   Might it make a little more sense to save promotions for an opponet of lesser attraction?

Given that every female under thirty that walks into that ballpark has a crush on David DeJesus, I might populate my gift store with some posters of said player.   Ditto for Gil Meche, who every female over thirty has a crush on.   Nope, we have some Bo Jackson tee-shirts for you and, until this season, did not even bother to have customized player jerseys available.

I might reconsider making fun of Cardinal fans during a game in which their team is pummeling your own.  I might wonder why my organization's batting practice promotion on July 11th did not get much response and maybe place it more prominantly on my team's official website as opposed to just sighing and cancelling it for lack of interest.   I might....or maybe I'd just publicly rail and threaten a guy who probably cares as much about the Royals as anyway who ever walks into your ballpark.

Just a thought.

This organization has real problems:

1. Injuries (correctly diagnosed or not) have crippled an already suspect lineup.
2. Little immediate help can be found in the upper reaches of the minors.
3. The top three draft picks have yet to sign.
4. The possibility of garnering real talent in exchange for most of the current big league roster seems dim.
5. Fundamentally, the Royals may be the worst team in baseball.
6. You don't even want to know the batting averages of your organization's top two hitting prospects.
7. Your top pitching prospect is repeating Double A ball and, just last night, managed to get his ERA below 4.00.
8. You owe Kyle Farnsworth  money next year.
9. You owe Jose Guillen money next year.

Yeah, what someone writes in an internet column is your big concern.

 

The rumblings are growing louder by the day.  This team stinks like a rotting carcass and people are looking at someone to whom they can pin the blame.  Some are calling for the manager.  Our friend Rany wants the trainer fired.  You kind of get the feeling Dayton Moore is feeling some heat.

There are obviously a ton of issues with this team.  It's not going to be a simple fix.  Firing one guy isn't going to solve all our problems.  

Having said that, this brand of baseball we're seeing in Kansas City is pathetic.  It's ugly.  It's awful.  We've seen some crappy baseball over the last 20 years, and this team is keeping pace with some of those historically awful clubs.  

Name a fundamental part of the game.  Defense?  Horrible.  One of the worst fielding teams in the league.  Getting on base?  Horrible.  Near the bottom in OBP.  Pitching?  Everyone not named Zack Greinke is inconsistent, veering toward horrible.  Base running?  Horrible.  Try going to a game where they don't give up outs on the bases.

Here's the issue with poor fundamentals:  These problems run so deep, they are so ingrained in this organization and the players are so wrong for this team that the solutions will take months, if not years to overcome.  

You can't fix the defense over night.  Alberto Callaspo isn't going to suddenly stop letting balls slip through the five hole and Jose Guillen isn't going to suddenly show some range.  Likewise, the hitting isn't going to improve quickly.  Tony Pena isn't going to get hot and hit .200 in July and Mark Teahen isn't going to recapture 2006.  And the pitching... I don't even think I can rationally discuss this.

But you can fix the base running - and do it in a timely manner.

You can start by firing third base coach Dave Owen.

When David DeJesus was picked off first base Tuesday night (with a 3-2 count on the hitter - unforgivable) I tweeted that he's really regressed as a base runner.  That was a knee jerk reaction... From watching the game this year, it's just seemed to me that he's been confused, for lack of a better word, on the bases.  Being picked off, failing to take the extra base, not tagging up... It's all part of his game these days on the bases.  (When he's actually on base.  A .297 OBP?  Who does he think he is, Miguel Olivo?)

I then read the brilliant Posnanski, who pointed out the Royals - as a team - are a horrific base running club.  Poz isn't breaking any news telling us that.  We've watched.  We know that this team is horrible on the bases.  

Yes, DeJesus has been one of the prime culprits behind the Royals stinking so much on the bases.  Bill James tracks base running gains.  Basically it's a measure of how often a player takes the extra base (example: going from first to third on a single) along with how many outs a player makes on the bases (being picked off, getting thrown out trying to take the extra base, etc.) to give us a plus/minus number.  If zero is average, then a plus number is above average while a minus is below average.

Just as I remembered, DeJesus used to be good on the bases.  Here's how he's looked over the last five years:

2005:  +26
2006:  +16
2007:  +13
2008:  -3
2009:  -10

He used to be a quality, aggressive base runner.  Now, he's just a dumb one.  And he's not the only one who's regressed.  Remember all that talk about how great Mark Teahen was on the bases?  Remember how we all raved about how he's such a smart base runner.  He's not fast, but he knows how to take the extra base.  Here's how Teahen has fared over the last four years:

2006:  +22
2007:  +11
2008:  +9
2009:  -20

Wow.  To put his -20 in perspective, only 11 players had a -20 or lower in the entire 2008 season.  Teahen is at a -20 in the first three months. 

Teahen used to be great going from first to third.  Entering this season, according to Bill James, Teahen had 70 opportunities to move from first to third on a single and did so 49% of the time.  That's an astounding rate, given the major league average is 27%.   

This year, he's moved from first to third just four times in 14 opportunities, a 29% success rate.  Slightly above average, but way below his career rate.  And a huge drop from his previous seasons. 

(In his 2008 handbook, James points out that baserunning is an area of consistency.  If a player has a + rating one year, he's likely to have a + rating the following year.  He even used DeJesus as an example.) 

The other red flag with Teahen on the bases is he's run into six outs this season.  His career high prior to this year was three.  According to James' system, those extra outs carry a huge penalty.

Moving on, we all know Alberto Callaspo is slow.  Not molasses-slow like Billy Butler (more on him in a minute) but he's not winning any races.  

Callaspo this year has moved from first to third once.  Once.  Out of 15 opportunities.  He's scored from second on a single once.  Once.  Out of five opportunities.

Butler isn't much better.  He's moved from first to third once out of 16 opportunities.  However, he has scored from second base on a single nine out of 14 times.  That leads the team.  

Do you know who leads this team with Bases Taken?  Miguel Olivo!  Olivo has taken nine bases.  Here are some Royals and the number of extra bases they've taken this year.  Aviles hasn't played for almost a month and a half and still ranks second:

Olivo:  9
Aviles: 5
Callaspo:  5
Guillen:  4
Maier:  3
DeJesus: 3
Teahen:  2
Butler: 2
Pena: 1
Bloomquist: 1

As Posnanski pointed out the Royals are at -75 on base running gain.  That's MINUS 75.  Let's just do this to put some perspective at how horrible this really is:

It would hurt if even if the Royals were barely below average because they don't hit for power and they don't string enough hits together to assemble a big inning.  But to be so far down the chart - a total of 38 bases away from the next closest team - that hurts.

One reason they're so far at the bottom is because they're among the leaders in making outs on the bases.

So to sum up:  

-- The Royals, as a team, are the worst in the league at taking the extra base.
-- Their best base runners have gone from well above average to well below average when it comes to taking the extra base.
-- They are near the top of the charts in making outs on the bases.

In just a half season, Dave Owen has moved the Royals backwards on the bases.  

(Irony alert: As I typed the previous sentence, Owen held DeJesus at third on a Billy Butler double.)

As the third base coach, Owen is in charge of the base runners.  It's as simple as that.  A runner on first looks to Owen for direction before he hits second base when he's on the move.  When a runner on third is tagging on a fly ball, he tells the runner when to go.  And he's in charge of windmilling those arms and getting the runner from second home on a single.

A prime example of his ineptitude came on Monday, when Tony Pena, Jr. was on third base with no outs.  Wee Willie Bloomquist hits a fly ball the Twins left fielder grabs while running toward center.  Although the fly ball wasn't deep, the fact the fielder is moving away from the plate (the direction where he would make a throw) means Pena has a better than average chance of scoring.  Owen held him at third.  Inexcusable.   

Let's not mince words: Owen has failed miserably in his job this year.  

Seriously, what are his credentials for this position?  Previously, Owen was a scout for three teams, then a minor league infield instructor for the Phillies.  He joined Hillman's staff for the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2007 and was apparently part of the deal when Dayton Moore hired Hillman for the 2008 season.  Owen served as Hillman's bench coach last year, but the Royals decided they needed more experience in the dugout, so they "demoted" Owen to third base coach this year when they brought in John Gibbons.  This is the first time Owen has coached third and it's not going well.  However, he's a FOST (Friend Of SABR Trey) so that must count for something.

This year, Owen has been lost in the coaches box and as a result, the Royals have been lost on the bases... Sending runners when he should be holding, holding runners when he should be sending them.  It's something we've seen with our own eyes, and thanks to Bill James, we have the numbers to confirm our hunch.  

There are a ton of issues with this team, but the third base coach is one area where there could actually be a "quick-fix."  Fire (or at the very least reassign) Owen today, and you're likely to see improvement on the bases tomorrow.  It's a small step, but one that would pay immediate dividends.

It just gets better and better...

Shortstop Mike Aviles is scheduled to undergo reconstructive-elbow surgery, commonly known as Tommy John surgery, to correct ligament damage that failed to heal through rest.

Typical recovery time for non-pitchers undergoing the procedure is nine-to-12 months.

On the bright side, MORE TONY PENA!!!  For almost a whole year!!!  Because this injury gives them the excuse to offer Pena arbitration this winter and bring him back.

I'm off to drink some paint thinner.

I've written columns that started out in a similar fashion to this before, but as we head into the trading season of major league baseball, it becomes relevant again.

Answer these two questions:

1. Are the Royals going to contend for the AL Central THIS year?
2. Will Alex Gordon or Billy Butler become a star?

Probably the consensus on number one is a No, so that leaves us with question two.   When a refer to Gordon or Butler becoming a 'start' I don't mean simply a good to very good player who occasionally has a great year, but a 'David Wright' like bonafide star.   We are talking about a consistent mid-nine hundreds OPS impact bat who gets on base and hits with power.  

In the case of Gordon, you have to be looking for a .400 on-base percentage and thirty plus home runs.   For Butler the numbers are a plus .300 average, upper .300 on-base percentage and 50 doubles more often than not.    Not just good, GREAT.

Now, if your answer is that neither one of these guys is ever going to reach that sort of status, then it becomes pretty clear what Dayton Moore needs to do this July.

David DeJesus is a solid everyday major leaguer.   Mark Teahen is okay.   Jose Guillen is what he is and so is Mike Jacobs.   Miguel Olivo and John Buck have their faults, but they don't kill you at the bottom of the order (unless they're followed by Tony Pena Jr., Mitch Maier or Luis Hernandez).   Willie Bloomquist is a good UTILITY player and Alberto Callaspo is a hitter, but will never be a star.   Mike Aviles is a question mark and Coco Crisp is hurt.    All those guys can be assets to a good baseball team, valuable assets, but only if they are sandwiched around one and preferably two impact bats.

It's okay that Gordon has missed half of this year and Butler is not that kind of bat in 2009, but it will not be okay in 2010 or 2011.   If you don't believe they are stars in the making - and let me go on record that I think both will be good, but they will never rival say a Mauer-Morneau combination or Wright-Beltran (lofty standards indeed, I admit) - then you start trading the guys I listed in the preceeding paragraph along with any pitcher not named Zack, Gil or Joakim.

Is there value there?  I'm not sure, but you have to start looking, don't you?  

Brian Bannister gave up two runs in seven innings at home and lost last night.   When I look down in the minors, the most ready offensive help is a 24 year old outfielder in AA who was acquired for Tyler Lumsden and a shortstop with two weeks of experience about A ball.

Time to make a change.

 

As Clark pointed out yesterday, the key to any successful Luke Hochevar start is his ability to induce "substandard" contact via (mostly) his sinking fastball.  Clark had a number of excellent points, but among his data was the better the Hochevar start, the more downward break - his average fastball is dropping around seven inches.  Last night, Hochevar's fastball was breaking only 4.88 inches.  

The result was interesting:

7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 2 SO

Hochevar faced 27 hitters... Ten of them put the ball in the air and nine of them hit ground balls.  The fly balls were the result from him leaving a ton of balls up in the zone.  



If we've said it once, we've said it a hundred times... The best Luke Hochevar starts are the starts where he keeps the ball down and gets the ground ball.  His inability to miss bats (he had only six swing and misses in 98 pitches) make him incredibly vunerable if he leaves the ball up in the zone.  And, make no mistake, he was vunerable on Monday night.  Mauer just missed on a couple of swings (and got the ball in the air) but the result were a pair of harmless fly outs.  He was also able to get Morneau to chase on a high pitch out of the zone for one of those swings and misses to close out the first.

One interesting thing about his start - his first 10 pitches were all fastballs and they all were between 92 and 94 mph.  He didn't throw and off-speed pitch until pitch number 11.

Overall, it was one of the least impressive two-hit performances I've seen.  However, to his credit, after being wild early and throwing 58 pitches in the first three innings, Hochevar settled down and found some command in the middle innings.  He threw just 40 pitches over the next four frames.  And given the Royals bullpen, the starter's longevity is probably more key than his ability to keep the ball down.

Still, don't let the two hit performance fool you.  Hochevar was lucky.  

A couple of other notes as I look through my Twitter log.

--  Alberto Callaspo and Miguel Olivo going back to back?  Let's just say they wouldn't have been my first choice to do that.  

When Callaspo went yard, I tweeted something about him moving up in the order.  I was immediately called on it by people who obviously haven't read some of my previous posts.  Quick refresher:  I think his being "uncomfortable" higher in the order is overblown.  If anything, find out where he's comfortable (fifth, cleanup, leadoff???) and put him as close to the top as possible.  He's the only guy on this team who can make contact on a consistent basis for crying out loud.  Keep the bat in his hands.

--  Love the Twins bunting in the first inning with no one out and a runner on first.  I'm sure there's a time and a place for that, but I'm pretty sure that was neither the time, nor the place.  

Thanks, Gardy.

--  I'm watching this on the tube, but I swear I heard a "Let's go Mauer" chant in the bottom of the third.  As Royals fans, we've had to put up with a lot of crap at the K over the last few years.  Wannabe Red Sox fans wearing Garciaparra jerseys, female Indian fans with Chief Wahoo tatoos on their biceps, White Sox fans on work furloughs and/or parole and any generic Yankee goober...

But Twins fans starting chants at the K?  Circle me, that sucks.

--  Lost in the glow of a win, I'm not sure if someone remembered to ask SABR Trey his opinion of his buddy, Dave Owen holding Tony Pena, Jr at third base on the catch by Delmon Young in the top of the fifth.  

To set the situation, Pena is on base after he singles to lead off the inning and moves to third after a David DeJesus single.  That makes it first and third, no outs.  The next hitter, Wee Willie Bloomquist lofts a fly ball to left center field.  Initially, the Twins center fielder, Denard Span, calls for the ball, but Young drifts over and makes the catch.

Now this part is key:  Young is running to his left.  It was a long run for him and he was still on the move when he made the catch, meaning for him to have an accurate throw to home from the outfield, he would need to stop, plant and then throw.  Plus, he's right handed.  This means, given his momentum, it would be impossible for him to set up and get a good throw in the time necessary to cut Pena down at the plate.

It was a tailor made sac fly.  Yet third base coach Dave Owen held Pena.  Why?  It made no sense.  

To me a third base coach should be fairly inconsequential.  Sure, they'll make some boneheaded calls from time to time, but it's usually a wash... Win some, lose some.  Yet with Owen, it seems like we're always losing on the bases.  He's sending runners when he has no business doing so and holding runners like Monday night.  It's odd.  It's like he's never seen a baseball game in his life.  He has no feel for the game.  Either way, he's costing us runs.

The Royals decided he wasn't worthwhile as a bench coach, so they moved him to third.  Why?  Because he's a FOST?  (Friend Of SABR Trey)  Honestly, there's no reason for him to be wearing a uniform at this point.  How often can you point to a third base coach and say, "That guy is a liability."

-- Love the arrogance of the home plate umpire who wouldn't check with his crew on the disputed foul ball that went off the foot of Cuddyer.  Replays showed it was foul, and I'm pretty sure the third base ump saw it that way as well.  Pretty much everyone in the stadium knew it was foul, except the home plate ump.  And Gardy got run.  Hilarious.

-- I haven't been fully convinced that Joakim Soria was all the way back, although Monday's three strikeout performance has me feeling pretty good.  Maybe we're both coming around.