That should make the new lineup look like:
Cain
Gordon
Butler
Hosmer
Francoeur
Moustakas
Perez
Giovotella
Escobar

Pitching, I’m just not sure about, but Dayton has found some guys to surprise us in Soria and Paulino. I think he will do it again this next year, and one of the prospects popping into the rotation this year, and the bullpen will blow fewer saves, then you have a case for the staff to improve to about 18-20 fWAR.

If all of that were to happen, the Royals would have a shot at winning the division with an fWAR near the Tigers. Obviously, that is an optimistic number, although I could see a possibility for the number to go higher if the catcher and 2nd outperform the numbers I provided, and Gordon, Hosmer and Francoeur each had cold spells this year that they might not next year with better hitters providing support.

The reason I am optimistic is because of one man, and that man is Seitzer. Everything the man has touched has turned to gold, although not necessarily immediately. He spent months of the off season working with Gordon, and the man became a very good hitter. He worked with Francoeur and he had a very solid season despite 2 bad months (I think that’s where Francoeur will improve in my projection above). Cabrera had his best season. Seitzer spent weeks with Escobar, and he went from below .200 to .250 in a month, and worked with Moustakas who started to turn around one of the worst rookie batting performances ever. He and Butler worked on lofting the ball and all of a sudden he was hitting bombs without a loss of batting average. After Giovotella recovers from surgery, I expect Seitzer will work with him before and during spring training, and we may reach a point where the only weakness in the line up is Escobar, and maybe given more time, Seitzer might get even more out of him.

But what I am really hopeful for is that Eiland has more success with the pitchers than McClure. The Royals pitching staff, in one of the most friendly pitchers’ parks in baseball have been terrible for more than a decade. And all Eiland has to do is get them to be average this year, and it will be enough. Last year, the staff had an ERA of 4.55 before the break and after they were 4.30. I just want them to continue that progress to the point of having something average this coming season (4.08 this past year in the AL) even though I hope they are capable of better.

If the lineup produces an fWAR over 30, and the pitchers have an average ERA, the team will win more than 85 games. Just how many will depend on lots of factors like how well they hit with runners in scoring position and late in close games, how well they hold leads, as good the starters are keeping us in most games. Hopefully we can get away from having one pitcher who never seems to get any run support (Grienke in previous years, Francis this year).

On a different note, I meant to include something in this post about consistent production offensively. The Royals piled up an impressive offensive season but, as you might expect from a young team, they were kind of feast or famine. Turning in the same offensive numbers, but in a conistent fashion might mean more wins.

I agree with the thought of waiting until the end of 2012 to add an arm. So for the 2012 season, my hope is that the #5 spot is a rotating spot of the minor league prospects – Monty, Jake, Mendoza, etc. Give them three starts, and then swap with another guy from Omaha. They’ll get experience and you’ll make better off-season decisions.