Hardly odd, just a matter of using a common language for communication. I recognize that WAR’s fld is kind of bogus and bsr silly and wOBA and OBP and OPS overweight the value of walks and lack a speed factor for them, but we can at least discuss from a common framework beyond eyeballs. I use stats frequently and have calculated my own results, aSLG being most useful to me, total bases plus walks plus HBP plus net steals divided by PAs. When I first ran that, by hand on a calculator, the numbers I generated had Melky at .504, Gordon .509, Billy .508, Frenchy .512, Hoz .483, Jose Bautista .918, Prince Fielder .651. I also use runs scored and driven in, divided by PAs, RSD, within the team. When I first figured it, back when Billy was a walker, his RSD was .2035, Matt Treanor’s .2000. By the end of the year Billy was at .251. Alex Gordon for the year, was .273, Eric Hosmer was .275. Billy’s second half of the season was .307, one of the reasons I think his new swing and batting order position made him a more productive hitter, in spite of losing his batting eye and wildly hacking at pitches.

“So I plugged Falu’s three-year average into the MLE calculator that I found and it gave me this: 241/291/301.”

Earlier in the year I suggested a 25% drop-off from Omaha to the bigs, rough guess based on the travels of Kila and Aviles and the promotions of Hoz, Moose, and later Gio. Some guys at RR trotted out a study dating back to the days of cricket that suggested 13 or 17%, don’t remember which, based on the last season at AAA. My 25% would put Falu at about .225, 83% would give .249, 87% about .261. With positional versatility and low cost, the latter two would work for a one-year UIF. Then it gets down to glove comparison, Yuni having nine games at second six years ago, Falu spending the 2011 season among three infield and one outfield positions. Yuni might be a better SS, much as it pains me to suggest, but Irving would likely have an advantage at 2nd and 3rd, just on recent experience. Of course, the FO has a much better idea of Falu’s on-field capabilities than I do, so I won’t accuse them of a blunder on this.

“Also, let’s stop mentioning Colon as an alternative.”

Bianchi and Yam Navarro are gone, so the food chain in the minors currently is Falu, Colon, Rey Navarro. And maybe Serateli(sp?). Those are the closest in-house alternatives to Yuni/Getz at the moment, so they provide the context for signing Yuni and the suggestion by myself and others that Falu should have gotten a look as well as my opinion that 2nd is a black hole in the system.

Bedtime, great thread, guys. Appreciate your patience.

But I have to say this: if that had been Falu’s ML line in 2011 it almost certainly would have been better than Betancourt’s 2011 batting line of 252/271/381, at least as fangraphs measures wOBA and wRC+.

Here are some comps:

Ichiro, 272/310/335, 289 wOBA, 82 wRC+
Gordon Beckham, 230/296/337, 284 wOBA, 71 wRC+
Mark Ellis, 248/288/346, 283 wOBA, 70 wRC+
Alcides Escobar, 254/290/343, 282 wOBA, 73 wRC+

Yuni, 252/271/381, 278 wOBA, 72 wRC+

That is staggeringly bad production from Yuni, it even surprised me a bit. Of course 2011 was by far Falu’s best season in AAA, and his three-year average in Omaha likely gives us a better predictor than one season’s equivalency…but still.

Just for fun, Falu’s 2010 equivalency (232/277/288) looks strikingly similar to Caesar Izturis’s 2010 line (230/277/268) which was good for dead last in both wOBA (248) and wRC+ (46) among qualifying batters.

As for other free agents, well I have written about that too. To recap, with no viable alternatives in the organization, the Royals needed to look at free agents. Is Yuni overpaid? Likely. Are there many free agents better than Yuni available? Not really. I keep repeating myself…this was not a great signing, but the alternatives were not much more attractive and $2 million for one year is almost never a mistake worth spilling this much ink about, but because it is Yuni and because we all throw up a bit in our mouths when we think of himas a Royal, everyone feels that they need to jump up and down and shout about the their outrage. Sorry, I just cannot get that worked up over it.

And may I add, Jim, it is odd seeing you reference such nerdy stats as fWAR.

Do you have a better suggestion for a UIF up here? I covered three of the obvious suspects in-house and none were impressive in ’11.

“Everyone might be right in saying that Yuni is not the answer, but neither is Falu.”

Then jump right on in. Falu is a valid suggestion within the known parameters of the organization. Yuni has the advantage to some of looking a lot like 2011 Mike Aviles, which should appeal to the historians with his 16 homers in 2010.

“Combine his poor hitting with mediocre fielding”

Haven’t seen much on his fielding, is he worse than Gio and Yuni?

“Yuni has typically been a slightly better than replacement level player”

Going to be hard to ring up 0.5 fWAR in 25 games, so his history probably isn’t a justification for a $2 mil contract. A projected WAR of 0.1 or less is worth about major league minimum.

I look forward to your suggestions. One of the bloggers covered the alternatives, the prices, and the production of the names being bandied about. I’ld be interested in your take.

2011: 301/358/390
2010: 272/327/330
2009: 269/342/344

Yuni’s numbers, as a 23-year-old, in 194 AAA at bats:

295/323/443

Last season was Falu’s best, and it was a 747 OPS (or 60 points below the PCL average) from a guy who was a full year older than the average PCL batter. The season before, when he was 27 and the average age for a PCL hitter, his 657 OPS was 123 points below the league average. And in 2009, when he was a half year younger then league average, his 686 OPS was 72 points below league average. The guy has never been young for the league and has always been below league average offensively. Yes, I consider that unimpressive.

Combine his poor hitting with mediocre fielding and Falu projects as a below replacement level player. Whatever else his faults, Yuni has typically been a slightly better than replacement level player (except in 2009 when he was perhaps the worst player in baseball, and when he earned so much scorn that fans are still smouldering with disdain for him). Everyone might be right in saying that Yuni is not the answer, but neither is Falu.