There was one stretch were Chen was 5-0 and the rest of the team was 7-14, during this stretch the bullpen in Chen’s games allowed 3 runs in 14 2/3 innings (less than 2 ERA) while the bullpen allowed 27 runs in 43 2/3rd innings (over 5.50 ERA) and the offense was a half run better for him. Unless Chen is magic and has power over the bullpen and the offense, don’t count on him winning so many games.

If he has double Francis’ WAR he’ld be an ace and I haven’t seen that offered. Francis had a gift for losing games last year and a hard time winning them. Fortunately, if Sanchez is that bad he’ll be put in the bullpen and Monty called up. We have many more options this year than last, but I still think that FA motivation, if healthy, will be the deciding factor and I think that is what GMDM gambled on.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=chenbr01&year=2011&t=p

While having a slightly higher HR% on the road, his SLG and BABIP are lower there.

“gives up plenty of hits.”

Sanchez actually gives up very few hits, leading the league in ’10 with 6.6/9 and being only half a hit worse in ’11 with 7.1. By comparison, Roy Halladay gave up 8.0/9 last year and 8.3 the year before. Sanchez’ problem is his walks.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchjo01.shtml

This is minor, but Sanchez usually carries a pretty high WHIP because he walks a lot of guys and gives up plenty of hits. His career WHIP is 1.39.

Francis signed a minor league deal with the Reds that is 1.5 mil if he makes the club but could be double that with incentives.

Sanchez has more upside with his K skills, but I’ll go ahead and doubt he’s twice the pitcher Francis is.

Scott McKinney at RR used a number of systems and came up with 78 wins. I looked at the projections they were based on and am a little more optimistic, 81 wins at minimum and 85 as reasonable for an optimistic guy who isn’t convinced that our rotation will be a disaster.

“Wins mean less than nothing for starting pitchers.”

I think they’re handy, don’t need to be weighted like the fips. Chen also had a good enough ERA and nice BABIP. Last year he averaged a quality start, 6 innings and less than 3 runs given up in 6 innings. If he does that this year with our offense and bullpen we’ll win some games. If wins mean nothing, Jeff Francis and Felipe Paulino were both #2 starters last year with fWAR 2.6.

“You do realize that without the Melky trade he was a dfa candidate because of his 2011?”

On the Giants’ staff, yes. He is a significant upgrade over Jeff Francis and has sacred K/9 and WHIP numbers. He may cop an attitude and decide he doesn’t want to get filthy rich or he may blow a shoulder, that’s baseball, but I think he’ll do well for us and have some good trade value as a left-handed power pitcher for an NL contender come July.

“Dayton couldn’t get Francis traded last year.”

Francis did kinda suck last year. Has anyone signed him?

You do realize that without the Melky trade he was a dfa candidate because of his 2011? Dayton couldn’t get Francis traded last year. I know his fwar projects 15 wins and an ERA under 3 but he’s going to have to prove it.