Royals Authority

Deconstructing The Process

Browsing Posts tagged Alex Gordon

The All-Star Break means it’s time to hand out the annual Royals Authority first half report cards.

There are no exams or assignments… Grading is subjective and based on a soft curve. Players are listed in a positional order from Baseball Reference with their slash stats and Fangraphs WAR.

Matt Treanor
.220/.354/.308
0.9 WAR

Key Stat: Treanor leads the team with a 15% walk rate.

Coach T has been everything the Royals could have hoped when they acquired him from Texas prior to the start of the season. He calls a good game, throws out runners (he’s thrown out 29% of would be base stealers) and is currently third on the team in OBP. Remember, the Royals picked up Coach T only when they came to the realization that Jason Kendall isn’t the most awesomest catcher in the whole wide baseball world, and would have to miss the start of the season. Now that Kendall is down for the year, Coach T will, at the age of 35, post a career high for plate appearances sometime next month.

Grade: B+

Eric Hosmer
.268/.317/.431
0.0 WAR

Key Stat: He’s hitting a home run once every 29.9 at bats, second best rate on the team.

How do you give a grade to a player like this when expectations where so sky-high. Hosmer has yet to live up to the hype, but that’s OK, because he’s going to have a long career ahead of him.

If there’s one thing about Hosmer that’s bothered me in the early stages of his career, it’s his defense. I’ve seen him do some strange things in the field. Take Saturday’s game, when he ole’d a ground ball that really should have been fielded. Sure it was a hard hit ball, but it went right between his body and his glove. The kind of play the Royals minor league defensive player of the year should be making. While I’m on the negative, let’s add the dude needs to lay off the high strike a little more frequently.

Still, he’s 21 years old and holding his own in the big leagues. There’s something to be said for that. This grade is a reflection there is still plenty of work to be done.

Grade: B-

Chris Getz
.259/.320/.291
0.8 WAR

Key stat: He’s scored a run 43% of the time he’s reached base, tops among regulars.

Sigh… Every team has a Chris Getz. He doesn’t do anything notable, except he Plays The Game The Right Way. So managers and front office guys love him. He’s not that good, yet he’s somehow overrated. How exactly does this work?

Don’t pay a word to the Royals when they talk about his defense. Fact is, he’s average to below average with the glove. He has a slow first step and has difficulty moving to his right. His ability to turn the double play is below average as well… He’s converted just 47% of all double play chances this year.

Offensively, Yost has thrown him into the leadoff spot, where he’s horribly miscast. As the leadoff hitter, Getz is managing a line of .183/.266/.220. True, this team doesn’t have a guy who fits the traditional mold of a leadoff man, but we have enough evidence to know that it isn’t Getz. But he has 17 steals, so I suppose we have that going for us.

Aviles would provide more value over an entire 162 game season.

Grade: C-

Alcides Escobar
.250/.290/.328
1.4 WAR

Key stat: Hitting .343/.393/.509 since June 7.

Sometime early in the season, I sent out a Tweet proclaiming Escobar The Shortstop Jesus. I figured it was fitting because he was saving all those runs. (Get it?) (And yes, I realize I’ve ripped off Bill Simmons who refers to Larry Bird as The Basketball Jesus. I’m a polytheist.) His defense has been mouthwatering for much of the 2011 season. It’s been so good, I can’t even remember the name of that stiff who used concrete on his hands and feet at shortstop the last couple of seasons.

Now, about the bat… As cold as Escobar was early in the season, (he was hitting .203/.237/.241 on June 6) he’s been scorching hot ever since. It’s a remarkable turnaround. If he can push his OBP another 30 points higher, we’ll really have something. That might be asking a bit much. Last year in Milwaukee, he hovered around the .300 mark until a September swoon dropped him to his final resting place of .288. But after digging that deep hole early in the season, to get back to a .300 OBP would be a heck of an accomplishment.

I still think it’s hilarious Zack Greinke forced his way out of Kansas City and ended up with the Yunigma as his shortstop as those of us actually loyal to the Royals now have a defensive human highlight reel at short. That gets him a couple points right there…

Grade: B-

Wilson Betemit
.285/.345/.415
0.5 WAR

Key Stat: Hitting .301/.360/.466 vs RHP and .241/.305/.278 against LHP.

Are the Royals a better team with Betemit in the lineup? Right now… Probably. But that’s exactly the kind of short-sighted mess that’s plagued this franchise for 25 years. Once the Royals decided it was time for Mike Moustakas, Betemit had to grab some pine.

Of course, this torpedoed any trade value Betemit may have had, but that value was going to be limited for the key stat listed above. He’s probably best suited as a platoon guy or left-handed bat off the bench. (I know he’s a switch hitter… But if I was a manager, I’d never use him against left handed pitching unless absolutely necessary.)

For some reason, his power is way down this year. He has a 4.3% HR/FB rate compared to last year’s 12.1% HR/FB. As a result, he’s homered once every 66 at bats this year. Last summer, he parked one once every 21 at bats.

Grade: C

Alex Gordon
.299/.367/.483
3.4 WAR

Key Stat: As long as he stays healthy, he will post career highs in every offensive category you can imagine.

He’s dominating… And I love it. Should have been an All-Star, but he can take solace in his grade…

Grade: A

Melky Cabrera
.293/.332/.455
3.0 WAR

Key Stat: Cabrera is walking in just 5.4% of all plate appearances.

The Melk-Man is having the kind of season GMDM dreamed about when he signed him. Just a year ago, he finished at .255.317/.354 and a -1.0 WAR and was cut loose by the Braves. The Royals took a chance that he would be motivated and would rebound, and he certainly has.

The downside of this is he is blocking Lorenzo Cain in Omaha who is hitting .313/.379/.529 for the Storm Chasers. And, Cabrera is a third year arbitration eligible, meaning if he plays a full season in KC, the Royals retain his rights for 2012. Fans may be looking at Cabrera as trade bait, but I’m not so certain the Royals will be offered what they consider “fair value.”

The Royals face an interesting decision on the Melk-Man.

Grade: A-

Jeff Francoeur
.265/.308/.443
1.8 WAR

Key Stat: 37% of all his base hits have gone for extra bases.

The Frenchman has done what we all expected and reverted to his career norm following a hot start where it seemed like he was in the middle of every late game rally for the Royals. Check the numbers… In his career, Francoeur is a .268/.310/.427 hitter. There will probably be a couple of warm streaks from here to the end of the year and a couple of cool stretches as well. He is who he is.

Obviously, he’s playing great defense in right. I have no idea why other teams think it’s a good idea to run on the Royals outfield.

Overall, he’s been a decent enough player for the Royals. His WAR is the 3rd best on the team and for you stolen base perverts, he’s already swiped a career-best 15 bases.

There’s a mutual option for 2012, and the early smart money is that if The Frenchman isn’t dealt, that option will be exercised by both parties. We’ll see…

Grade: B-

Billy Butler
.294/.390/.415
1.1 WAR

Key Stat: Butler’s .352 wOBA is the second best on the team.

Butler is having another Billy Butler season. In other words, he’s doing a damn fine job with the bat.

One thing that’s hampering Butler this season is the fact he’s batting more ground balls. For his career, he has a 1.43 GB/FB ratio, but this year he’s at 1.66 GB/FB. That’s effected his power numbers, as his ISO has cratered to .121. It also hasn’t helped that opposing pitchers are pitching around Butler. His 10 intentional walks are tops on the team. After hitting in the 3rd spot for most of last year, he’s been in the cleanup or fifth spot with no protection behind him in the lineup.

The average DH makes $9 million this year. Butler is earning $3 million. His production is pretty much in the middle of the pack among the nine regular DHs. While the power isn’t there, he’s ripping a line drive 24% of the time he puts a ball in play. Sure, a few more home runs would be nice, but the guy is having another solid season with the bat.

He’s still not a power hitter and probably will never hit for the power fans crave. Get over it. He’s good.

Grade: A-

Jarrod Dyson
.172/.294/.172
0.2 WAR

Key Stat: Running 43% of the time there is an open base ahead of him.

Dyson is an electric player, but so was Joey Gathright. They’re the same guy. Except, as far as I know, Dyson hasn’t jumped over a car.

He doesn’t belong on this team. He doesn’t belong on any major league team, although you could make the case to have him on a roster if he could pinch run for a hacking designated hitter type… A guy like Mike Jacobs. Where if you inserted Dyson in a tie game and that spot came up in the lineup with the game on the line in extras, you wouldn’t be kicking yourself for taking out a good hitter and letting weak sauce swing the stick.

And he really doesn’t belong on a team with fourth place aspirations.

Grade as a hitter: F
Grade as a runner: A

Kila Ka’aihue
.195/.295/.317
-0.1 WAR

Key Stat: Brought home only four base runners out of a total of 72. That’s a 6% conversion rate. That’s awful.

RIP Kila Monster.

Grade: F

Mitch Maier
.294/.410/.412
0.4 WAR

Key Stat: Maier has a .405 BABIP.

It was clear from the start that Maier would have a difficult time cracking the lineup… Especially after Melky and The Frenchman were promised playing time prior to inking their respective contracts. Not that Maier would be an upgrade, but given the fact he’s rarely moved his butt off the bench, he’s done quite well.

Grade: B

Mike Aviles
.213/.257/.391
0.0 WAR

Key Stat: Aviles’ has a .178 ISO, which for a full season, would be the highest rate of his career.

In a little over two months, Aviles had three streaks: Sadly, only one of those could have been classified as “hot.” That landed him back in Omaha once the Royals decided to launch the Moose era in Kansas City. I’m convinced he’ll be back at some point, but it will most likely take a trade to Betemit to have this happen.

As it is, he’s the ultimate Replacement Player for 2011.

Grade: D-

Mike Moustakas
.228/.294/.283
-0.2 WAR

Key Stat: Moose has brought home just three of 72 base runners.

Moose has struggled since he was called up from Omaha. I don’t think there was anyone surprised by this development. He doesn’t have the natural ability that pushed Hosmer to the head of the Royals prospect class, but he’ll be fine once he sorts things out at this level.

Think of this as part of the learning curve.

Grade: Incomplete

Pitchers on Friday… Class dismissed.

We’re beyond the half-way point in the Major League Baseball season, but the All-Star break is a great time to take a breather and see where the Royals stand. What I’ve done is take a look at the Royals wOBA position-by-position and compared it to their American League Central opponents and the rest of the AL. I’m using wOBA because it’s a simple and powerful offensive measuring tool. If you’d like to take a look at the nuts and bolts of the metric you can check out FanGraphs, but all you really need to know is that a higher number is a better number.

It’s valuable to measure the Royals against the AL Central because in reality that is their only competition. To be in the playoffs, the Royals don’t have to be better than the Yankees, Red Sox or Rangers, they just have to be better than the Twins, White Sox, Tigers and Indians.

The first chart is a list of every American League Central team’s position and it’s sorted by wOBA. So as you can see below the Tigers first-basemen (no surprise) is the most productive offensive position in the division. The colors in the chart sort each column from best (red) to worst (green) so you can get an idea of where some of the outliers are. The numbers are the total of all plate appearances for that position.

 

Some of the interesting things that stick out at me with this chart are the fact that no team is immune from having a low ranking offensive position. The Tigers have a 2b and 3b that are performing worse offensively than Alcides Escobar. Somewhere along the way there is this crazy idea that all playoff contenders have top-level talent at all 9 positions, which just isn’t the case.

Now, let’s break it up into individual positions. Again the numbers are sorted by wOBA and this time I’ve added the rank of the team in the American League at that position. So in the below chart, the Royals are 4th in the AL Central and 8th in the AL in regards to catcher wOBA.

 

The AL Central is pretty stacked in terms of offensive catchers. The combination of Matt Treanor and Brayan Pena is roughly an average offensive unit. Yep, that kind of shocked me too. Also, Alex Avila is really good.

First base is also a position of strength in the division. While the Royals are near the bottom offensively they’re still weighed down by the terrible start that Kila Ka’aihue had. Eric Hosmer is posting a .323 wOBa and would put the Royals as an average team in the AL. Not to bad for a very good defensive shortstop who is barely able to legally buy a beer.

So Chris Getz might not actually be as big of a problem as we all think. He’s received the lion’s share of playing time at second and the team is sitting at roughly league average offensively for the position. I agree with Craig that he probably isn’t as good with the glove as he’s touted, but he’s actually a fine player at the position compared to his peers in 2011. I do believe that teams aren’t getting enough offense out of this position in general though.

Third base isn’t exactly a position that fans will want to keep their eye on in this division. There just isn’t much offensive talent in the American League central there. It surprised the hell out of me that the Royals are getting the most production of of the position within the division. Playing Mike Moustkas right now over Wilson Betemit is dragging the number down, but that doesn’t mean it’s not the right move.

The Indians are getting a whole lot of production out of their shortstop and it’s a big reason they’re an ok offensive team. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Alcides Escobar rounds out the bottom of the division, but it’s encouraging that there are teams struggling even more than the Royals. Defense is not included in this breakdown at all, but if it did, I think we’d find that Escobar is at worst an average shortstop.

Alex Gordon is dominating.

This is very illustrative of why Melky Cabrera is a valuable trade chip. He’s one of the top 5 offensive center fielders in the American League. He’s no great defender, but his game will play on a number of contending team. His contributions at the plate are also a big reason the Royals offense is league average right now.

I bet you thought that this position would rank higher. Jeff Francouer had a hot start to the season, but he has cooled off significantly. That’s not to say he hasn’t provided some value. He’s solid defensively and holds his own offensively. For a team struggling to get to 82 wins, they could use a lot more league average players on their roster than they’ve had in the past.

Now here comes Billy Butler. The guy that so many believe isn’t good enough to be a DH, yet he’s one of the top 5 in the American League. Someone on Twitter told me that he was no Edgar Martinez. After looking at the numbers, I completely agree. This is Billy Butler’s age 25 season and he’s played in 622 games with an OPS+ of 119. Edgar Martinez played in 27 games through his age 25 season and if you add in the 65 games he played when he was 26 his OPS+ was 93.

 

Finally, I like to put together this radar graph because it looks cool. You’ll see the positions around the circle and then a color coded line representing each team. If the line is on the outside of the graph that means the team had the highest wOBA in the league at that position and then lower for each rung going to the middle. It’s just a way for me to have all the information in one picture so you can see where teams are in terms of each other.

 


Nick Scott hosts the Broken Bat Single Podcast and writes a blog for the Lawrence Journal World. You can follow him on Facebook or email him at brokenbatsingle at gmail dot com.
Aaron Crow has been a very useful pitcher for the Royals in 2011. True, he blew the game last night against the White Sox by allowing three runs in 1.2 innings and topped it off by balking in the wining run, besides that he’s been the definition of lights-out. He’s been fantastic in the setup role and even owned the closer role for a minute while Joakim Soria was demoted. His season hasn’t gone unnoticed as he was named to the 2011 All-Star team. It’s a great honor for a really good pitcher. It’s also completely asinine.
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I’m not knocking Aaron Crow. He’s done a marvelous job in the role he’s been given, however that role is a small one. He’s only pitched 41.1 innings, which is less than Felipe Paulino who the Royals acquired at the end of May. He’s appeared in 34 games, which is only 6 more than the rarely used Mitch Maier. Nobody is even considering those two as representatives for the Royals in Arizona and rightfully so. Yet if you look at their fWAR they have as good or better cases than Crow to be the team’s representative.
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fWAR
Felipe Paulino 1.2
Mitch Maier 0.4
Aaron Crow 0.4
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The All-Star roster is not created in a vacuum and is rarely representative of the best players of the season up to that point. Often, players are rewarded for popularity, longevity or merely by being a decent player on a terrible team. If the roster were created by selecting the best players at each position in the American League and relief pitchers were considered, then Aaron Crow would be a no-doubter. Unfortunately, that’s not even close to how the rosters are picked.
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First, there is a fan vote to decide the 9 starting position players. The primary goal of this vote is to market the All-Star game. Get people to care about who makes the team, let them tell you who they want to see and develop a series of sign-posts to remind people that the game is coming up and to keep them voting. Since the game is an exhibition game I have no problem with this process. The biggest problem is that MLB has allowed Fox and ESPN to dictate which teams get the most coverage in exchange for money. The networks obviously choose large-market teams and so their players are over-represented in any kind of fan vote. It’s not the fans who are to blame, it’s the short-sighted decision-makers at MLB who have allowed their brands to be manipulated by other parties.
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Next, the players, coaches and managers vote for 8 pitchers (five starters and three relievers) and 8 position players. In theory, allowing the people who actually play the game to vote on their peers is a nice inclusion. You’d think that the players would have a pretty good idea who deserves a spot in the All-Star game, but that doesn’t exactly seem to be the case. These players are extremely busy people and often are working when the rest of the teams are playing baseball, since, you know, they are baseball players too. So again, their primary source for learning about players they don’t see regularly is through major media outlets like ESPN. Their approach is typically more nuanced, but again relies primarily on legacy and popularity. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that, it’s just the way it is.
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Then the manager of the All-Star team selects 8 players to fill out his roster. This is part politics, part marketing and part trying to actually win the game. At this point, the manager in conjunction with the Commissioner’s office has to make sure that every team is represented and fill needs on the team. It’s the first time in the process that anyone truly considers which player from each team is most deserving of a spot in the game. Meanwhile, the roster as it’s already constructed has 8 pitchers and 17 position players. With the possibility of extra-innings and the brief appearances of pitchers, it’s no surprise that the managers select a lot pitchers. When a team like the Royals needs to get a player on the roster and they have a very good reliever, then it’s an easy decision for the manager.
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Finally, there is one roster spot left and again the fans get to vote from a small selection of players deemed worthy of inclusion but who weren’t selected in the first three methods of roster creation. It’s actually the first time in the entire process where players are put to a vote who most deserve to be included on the All-Star team for their performance this season. But again, the fans vote on the winner and it boils down to a popularity contest.
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An almost non-existent part of this process is looking at which players have out-performed their peers and should represent their teams at the game. It seems to be at best a tertiary criteria for selection. So given the way the system works now, Aaron Crow was the obvious selection. However, he’s far from the most valuable player on the team. That distinction belongs to Alex Gordon, who has been the best left-fielder in the American League.
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Among left fielders in the American League, Alex Gordon is 1st in fWAR, 2nd in wOBA, 1st in OBP, 2nd in SLG. He’s been an excellent defender, an excellent hitter and he’s been doing it for the entire season. He’s been mercifully placed into the Final Vote where he will almost undoubtedly lose to a player from a better team in a larger market. Meanwhile, his teammate who hasn’t come any where near being as productive as he has (nor jerked around near as much), will be representing the Royals at the All-Star game.
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The worst part of this whole debacle is the fact that for the 4th year in the last 6 there will almost assuredly be no Royals in the box score of the All-Star game. In the modern “it counts now because we can’t have a tie for some reason in an exhibition game” All-Star game, pitchers are left on the bench in case of exta-innings. Barring some extraordinary scenario or a mandate from the Commissioner’s office to ensure every team’s representative makes it into the game, Crow will languish on the bench. That will leave the thousands of Royals fans feeling a bit empty after the game.
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As fans of one of the worst franchises in sports, we have few moments of pride in our team. The chance to see one of our own on the same field with the superstars is one of them. Watching Soria enter the game and saying “Hey, that’s our guy! Show ‘em what you got!” is a moment of true pride for Royals fans. Watching one of our own take the plate is a fuzzy memory that last took place in the 2004 when Ken Harvey went 0-for-1. The last time we got to stand up in our living rooms and cheer for a Royal getting a hit in the All-Star game was in 1989 when Bo Jackson won the game’s MVP award.
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I’m a huge fan of Aaron Crow. I’m proud of him for making the All-Star game and I sincerely hope he gets in the game and succeeds. I also hope that somehow Alex Gordon will win the Final Vote and earn his rightful spot amongst the games best players. Regardless, he’s a victim of being a part of a woeful franchise and a terrible selection process. A process, much like baseball itself that is stacked against the Kansas City Royals.
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It may seem trivial to care which Royal dons the All-Star jersey in Arizona next week, but it’s our team’s one moment to shine in the national spotlight. It’s the one moment where dad’s can nudge their kid and show him that there is a good reason to be a Royals fan. It’s a moment that will likely not come this year and a moment which will mean a bit less as the most deserving player is watching from his home in Kansas City and possibly pondering if he’d have been there if he was on a different team. It’s those thoughts that can combine to form a decision to walk when free agency presents itself. It’s those decisions which perpetuate a downward spiral for a franchise that hasn’t been relevant since the last time a Royal got a hit in the All-Star game 22 years ago.


Nick Scott hosts the Broken Bat Single Podcast and writes a blog for the Lawrence Journal World. You can follow him on Facebook or email him at brokenbatsingle at gmail dot com.

So we’ve reached the midway point in what was supposed to be a transitional season. A season where the young guys would start to filter in and the Royals would stop finishing in last place. The young guys are here, but last place is still the reality. More than anything, I blame the Cleveland Indians, who are still playing way above their heads.

Normally, I’ll hand out a report card so to speak at the All-Star Break, which has always served as the de facto half way point, even if most of the time teams are on their 90th game of the season.

So while you breathlessly await my grades, I figured it was a good time to throw some second half predictions out there.

The Royals will hold on to Jeff Francoeur and both sides will exercise their mutual option for 2012 at $3 million and tack on another mutual option for 2013.

At the press conference announcing the deal, Dayton Moore will choke back tears as he talks about being in The Frenchman’s house when he signed his first professional contract.

Kyle Davies will finish the season in the Royals rotation.

And will promptly be arrested by Federal agents on the last day of the season on blackmail charges. The charges will be thrown out a month later when no evidence surfaces. “We just assumed he had dirt on Glass or Moore,” an FBI spokesman will tell reporters. “Because, otherwise who would choose to keep running that stiff out there every fifth or six day on their own free will?”

Melky Cabrera will be traded.

For some team’s #25th ranked prospect. The half fanbase will come to a near revolt that GMDM couldn’t pry away a Top 100 prospect stud for the Melk-Man. The other half will flood Facebook with messages of disbelief that GMDM would be insane enough to trade away our leadoff hitter.

Ned Yost will allow Sean O’Sullivan to surrender 21 runs in three innings to the Detroit Tigers in a September start.

“I thought he was a pitch or two of getting out of it,” Yost will tell the reporters.

Someone will refer to Billy Butler as a “baseclogger.”

That someone will be Ned Yost following a game where Butler reaches base five times but his teammates fail to drive him home.

Jason Kendall will make his return at the end of August and will start each of the final 35 games.

After the team celebrates his return with cake and ice cream in the clubhouse, Yost tells a reporter the team has missed Kendall’s leadership. “What’s our record without him? You think O’Sullivan would have been so crummy in that May start against Texas with Kendall behind the plate? Brayan Pena has a nice smile, but he can’t catch for crap.”

We will not see Johnny Giovatella this season.

Because that would undermine the team’s eventual campaign for “Chris Getz! Gold Glove Second Baseman.”

Luke Hochevar finishes with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP.

Then demands $8 million in arbitration this winter because he was the team’s Opening Day starter.

Wilson Betemit and Mitch Maier will go missing for five days.

Nobody associated with the Royals will notice.

Alcides Escobar will have another hot streak with the bat that will last a couple of weeks and will continue to make outstanding defensive plays. He won’t win the Gold Glove.

And every time The Shortstop Jesus makes a sterling defensive play, four out of five Royals fans will say, “Damn, Betancourt wouldn’t have come close to that one.” The other one fan will complain about his lack of bat.

Mike Moustakas will drive in a run on a hit that is not a home run.

Really. It’s going to happen.

Alex Gordon will parlay his All-Star selection into a strong second half and finish the season with the best all around year of his career.

Yep… That’s going to happen, too.

The Royals will finish in fourth place.

Because I’m an optimist at heart.

Generally, I care almost not at all about who gets picked to play in the All-Star Game and that includes whomever gets the required nod from the Royals.   Over the past couple of years, it was fun to have Joakim Soria on the team as he both deserved it and had the possibility of playing a prominent part in the game’s outcome.

In the end, however, who goes and who doesn’t really is not of great interest to me.   To be honest, I have not watched an All-Star Game start to finish in at least five years if not longer.   Perhaps, if all goes well in a couple of years and the roster contains three or four Royals instead of the mandatory one, my interest in the mid-summer classic will come back.

The Royals’ All-Star selection this year (and there will only be one) is kind of interesting in that the team has a player who probably could make a case to be selected even if the league didn’t require every team to have a representative and that player is one who many were ready to give up on before the season began.   Of course, I am talking about Alex Gordon.

Let’s check out Gordon’s resume to date:

  • 11th in the American League with a WAR of 2.8 (Fangraphs)
  • 19th in batting average, 16th in on-base percentage and 20th in slugging
  • 6th in total hits
  • 18th in runs scored
  • 3rd in doubles
  • 6th in triples
  • 1st in outfield assists and zero errors
  • 9 home runs and 5 steals, just as a bonus

Certainly, those are not MVP numbers, but they reflect an all-around good season.   Are there three outfielders in the American League having clearly better seasons than Alex Gordon?  Yes.   Are there six?  Maybe not.

As Royals’ fans, we may have expected too much out of Gordon when he came up;  so much so, that now that he is posting a .293/.362/.482 line with 36 extra base hits that we still have a tendency to say ‘well, that’s okay, I guess’.    I have done it myself, but it might be wise to remember that Carlos Beltran’s career line as a Kansas City Royal was .287/.352/.483.

Now, Alex Gordon is no Carlos Beltran, but he is a heck of a lot closer to being that kind of player now than he was just three months ago.    By the end of his run in KC, Beltran had added power and was routinely slugging over .500, but that would seem to be something Gordon might be capable of as well.

Nope, Gordon is not Beltran, but he should be an All-Star.

 You can also check out my ramblings on going to a six man rotation over at Sports Radio WHB where we provide exclusive Royals Authority content each week.

Getting swept…

Getting swept at home…

Getting swept at home by a National League team…

Yep, this week has pretty much been one for the dumpster.

If you’re looking for a silver lining in last night’s game, I guess we could find one in the fact that Felipe Paulino somehow pitched into the ninth inning. Kind of surprising, given he’d thrown 108 pitches through eight. To me, that move seems rather Hillman-esque, but I feel we can cut Nervous Ned some slack because this is Paulino we’re talking about. It’s not like the Royals are grinding a $12 million starter to the ground. It’s the little things.

The most notable thing that’s come from this series is the lineup shake-up. For the second consecutive game, Melky Cabrera led off, followed by Eric Hosmer. Funny… You can juggle the lineup all you want, but you still can’t prevent regression to the mean. That’s exactly what’s happening with guys like Jeff Francoeur who has expanded his strike zone to include a four state area. Then, there’s the learning process that’s ongoing with Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. That was evident in the ninth inning on Wednesday, when Hosmer was first pitch swinging with two out and the tying run on base in the ninth.

What it boils down to is unless Bud Selig turns his head to the advances made in genetic cloning, the Royals still have just two hitters in this lineup that can be counted upon to produce: Billy Butler and Alex Gordon. That’s it. The rest of the guys can run hot and extremely cold.

This will change over time. It’s all about The Process. Soon, we can include Hosmer and Moustakis in this group. Throw in a few arms and we may be in business.

For now though, we’re in familiar territory. The Royals are staring the second consecutive month where they’re playing under .400 ball firmly in the face. After averaging 5.1 runs per game the first month of the season, they’re plating just four runs per contest since. That one run makes all the difference in the world, especially with our starting rotation.

Again, it’s not about lineups. It’s not about Bruce Chen. (That was probably the funniest thing I heard all week when Nervous Ned tried to pin the Royals May and June swoon on the absence of Chen due to injury. Hilarious. Maybe if he was Albert Pujols. Stay calm, Ned.) And it’s not about the young players.

Right now, this team just isn’t built to win games.

Unfortunately, this leaves us in an all too familiar position… Worst record in the American League by two games and the third worst record in all of baseball.

Welcome home.

Episode #056 – In which I discuss Ned Yost’s comments regarding Eric Hosmer and break down the options for the Royals All-Star Game representative. Also, special guest Jon Schieszer stops by to discuss comedy, being a Royals fan in L.A., the Dodgers and his upcoming show in Kansas City.

 

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Check out Jon Schieszer live in Kansas City

 

Music used in this podcast:

Afro Cuban All Stars – Tumba Palo Cocuye

The Aggrolites – 5 Deadly Venoms

Modest Mouse – Dramamine

 

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Alex Gordon is having a renaissance, right? He’s finally come into his own and is realizing his potential. So, what’s different this year? What indicators might lead to an improved Gordon and is it sustainable?

First let’s start with the result stats to be sure that there really is an improvement on the field.

Year Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG
2007 23 151 600 543 60 134 36 4 15 41 137 .247 .314 .411
2008 24 134 571 493 72 128 35 1 16 66 120 .260 .351 .432
2009 25 49 189 164 28 38 6 0 6 21 43 .232 .324 .378
2010 26 74 281 242 34 52 10 0 8 34 62 .215 .315 .355
2011 27 64 294 263 38 75 20 3 7 27 61 .285 .354 .464
5 Seasons 472 1935 1705 232 427 107 8 52 189 423 .250 .332 .414
162 Game Avg. 162 664 585 80 147 37 3 18 65 145 .250 .332 .414

There’s clearly some improvement so far in 2011. Gordon is sitting on career highs in batting average, 0n-base percentage and slugging percentage. We’ve been told numerous times that Kevin Seitzer has him working on a new swing, but what in the numbers sticks out as an area of improvement?

Year HR% SO% BB% XBH% X/H% SO/BB GB/FB IP% LD%
2007 2.5% 22.8% 6.8% 9.2% 41% 3.34 0.58 66% 21%
2008 2.8% 21.0% 11.6% 9.1% 41% 1.82 0.46 63% 20%
2009 3.2% 22.8% 11.1% 6.4% 32% 2.05 0.78 61% 13%
2010 2.9% 22.1% 12.1% 6.4% 35% 1.82 0.59 62% 22%
2011 2.4% 20.8% 9.2% 10.2% 40% 2.26 0.66 67% 18%
5 Seasons 2.7% 21.9% 9.8% 8.6% 39% 2.24 0.57 64% 20%
MLB Averages 2.6% 17.8% 8.6% 7.8% 33% 2.06 0.79 69% 19%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/14/2011.

It seems as if Gordon is hitting about the same number of home runs and striking out a bit less. Neither of those numbers show much variation. However, he has shockingly been walking less but hitting a few more extra-base hits. If you compare this year to his best season of 2008, then there isn’t a whole lot different going on — he’s a few ticks higher in a couple areas, a few ticks lower in others. It seems that according to these numbers, he’s pretty much the same player he’s always been other than he’s putting more balls into play.

So, what about those balls in play? His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) this season is .345. His career average including 2011 is .302. The point to measuring BABIP is that it can give you an idea of how lucky a player has been. Once a ball has been put into play, the player has very little control over what happens. Better players tend to have higher BABIP, but an abnormally high one can be an indicator of luck.  A player could be finding some gaps or having more bloop hits fall in. On the flip side, it’s possible that Alex Gordon has been extremely unlucky in his career.

I don’t want to downplay his new swing, or a change in approach. He does seem to have better at-bats and he seems more willing to foul a pitch off that was probably a ball but could be close enough to be called for a strike. It’s still too early to claim that Gordon has turned his entire career around. He got off to a very hot start, which has lingering effects on the fans and commentariat. If his BABIP slides back towards normalcy, we could see a return of the less-productive Alex Gordon.


Nick Scott hosts the Broken Bat Single Podcast and writes a blog for the Lawrence Journal World. You can follow him on  Facebook or email him at brokenbatsingle at gmail dot com.

Not much to say about last night’s game, as the Royals drop their ninth road contest in 12 games. Instead, let’s focus on the future… Like Saturday, July 9. That’s when the Royals face the Tigers and we will be hosting Baseball Prospectus night at the K.

Baseball Prospectus has been doing these ballpark events throughout the country for the past couple of seasons and since I joined the staff last year, I’ve been bugging them for an event in KC. This will be a truly great event. The game on July 9 begins at 6:10, and the BPro festivities begin at 4:10.

For only $30, here’s what you will receive:

– A ticket for an outfield box seat in the Rivals Outfield Box (right field… we can join the French Quarter!).
– A $15 credit to be used toward a Baseball Prospectus Premium subscription or your next premium renewal.
– A planned question and answer session with a staff member of the Kansas City Royals. Details to be announced
– An opportunity to talk baseball with several Baseball Prospectus writers. In addition to myself, prospect guru Kevin Goldstein, Rany Jazayerli, Royals scout school graduate Joe Hamrahi and Jeff Euston of Cot’s Baseball Contracts will be in attendance.

Those Rivals Outfield Box seats usually go for $25 (advance purchase) but with the added value (like the BP credit) that’s a pretty sweet deal. Spots are filling up quickly, so click here to purchase your ticket to the event.

I’ll place the event at the top of the sidebar on the right, so when you visit you will be reminded. This is a really solid group of writers and I know this team has an outstanding bunch of knowledgeable fans, so this event should be a ton of fun.

Mark it down. July 9. I hope to see you there.

Quick notes about last night…

– Is this team going to be one of those bizarro teams with weird splits? Specifically, road and home record. These guys look like world beaters (and contenders) at home. On the road… Not so much.

– Alex Gordon in May… Not as good as Alex Gordon in April. So far, he’s hitting just .161/.229/.290 in eight games. I’ve written before about how his decrease in home run power is troubling… Now we have this to worry about. And that strikeout last night against Chamberlin was ugly. Three pitches and he didn’t even move the bat off his shoulder.

– Kyle Davies turned in a typical Davies performance. Meh.

– If there was any question about how the Royals will handle the inevitable call-up of Danny Duffy, I present to you Exhibit A: With Bruce Chen on the DL, the Royals recalled Vin Mazzaro from Omaha.

With Eric Hosmer almost certainly in line to qualify as a super two, the Royals won’t jump start the service clock of a pitcher just to gain a handful of starts. That said, I expect Duffy and maybe Montgomery to arrive in early June. Hopefully.

Who knew that it would take a four game losing streak for Nervous Ned to go into full meltdown mode?

Maybe meltdown is a little harsh, but you have to question what’s going through the manager’s mind when he moves Alex Gordon from left field to first base for two games in a row. One game… OK. Whatever. Two games… You start to wonder what’s going on. Is this a move to jumpstart a lethargic lineup, or is this some sort of larger plan?

Short-term, basically what Yost is doing is replacing Kila in the lineup with Dyson. Even though Kila is struggling (looking at strikes down the middle of the plate and then swinging at off speed pitches in the right-handed batters box qualifies as struggling) he’s still a better bet for the Royals than Dyson. Nothing against the guy, but I’ll take Kila’s power potential over Dyson’s speed.

Really, I don’t have an issue playing Gordon at first. But the Royals have Billy Butler, who is jonesing for some defensive playing time. Not that Butler is ever going to win a Gold Glove, but throw the guy a bone… He’s put in the work, why not let him get some time in the field if you want to give Kila a break. It’s not like Butler is a long-term solution with Eric Hosmer waiting in the wings. That makes this move even more bizarre. If the Royals didn’t have stud first base prospect a couple of months away, maybe this makes a little bit of sense. Otherwise, no.

Here’s why you don’t jack with Gordon and his glove. First, he’s proven himself to be above average defensively. Yes, he gets some bum jumps every now and then, but he’s athletic enough to recover and make plays. I can’t remember a time when I felt he did something wrong out there. This is not the Mark Teahen situation where the guy consistently took poor routes. Gordon is legit. Second, his arm is a weapon. When you have a guy with a gun like that, why the heck would you waste it at first? His arm is so strong and accurate, I’d have zero problem if he played right field. But first? Just wasteful.

For the record, I don’t think this defensive shift is why Gordon is 0-fer his last two games. He’s been rolling with the bat, so a move with the glove shouldn’t have any kind of impact. But Nervous Ned put himself and Gordon in this position to second guess because of the hitting streak and Gordon’s hot start. It’s coincidence that Gordon didn’t get a hit in the last two games. But Yost is going to take some heat for this.

This move proves that SABR Trey didn’t corner the market on managerial crazy. Managers will do nutty things sometimes to jump start a lethargic lineup, but moving Gordon defensively weakens the lineup. This really shouldn’t go any further. It needs to stop now, please.

My dislike for Kyle Davies as a starter has been well documented. Last night, Kyle proved that regression was an evil bitch as he coughed up four home runs. Given his propensity to put runners on base, he’s fortunate all four were solo shots. I saw on the post game where Yost said he made good pitches. Bull. Three of the four were right in the happy zone. Belt high and center of the plate.

Still utterly confused by the Tim Collins usage. Another game, another appearance. This time, Yost used him for 2.2 innings in a game where the Royals were trailing 8-0. So does this mean Collins is the mop-up guy now? He appeared in four of the six games on the road trip.

The Royals didn’t hold the lead once during their road trip. This is a trend that is going to happen from time to time given the (lack of) starting pitching. Entering the season, we figured this would happen. The hot start masked some inefficiencies and fooled a lot of people. With a winless roadtrip, the bandwagon is down to three wheels and the axle is threatening to come off altogether.

I can’t get too down about this rough patch. Yost may be panicking, but this was expected. This seems like a good time to remind ourselves that this season is about transition. There will be more rough games ahead. Keep your eyes on the big picture. The only thing that should be troubling at this point is a manager who seems to be freaking out.