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Deconstructing The Process

Browsing Posts tagged David Lough

David Lough turns 26 tomorrow and is no closer to the major leagues than he was two years ago.  In fact, he may be farther away.   He has not gotten the call for the chartered flights, nice hotels and first class service of the major leagues despite hitting .299/.356/.460 in two combined years in AAA.   Even a 2011 line of .318/.367/.482 was not enough to get a courtesy cup of coffee with the big club at the end of a long lost season.

Prior to the 2010 season, David Lough was named the 10th best prospect in the Royals’ system by Baseball America.   They described him as an average defensive centerfielder and above average at the corners.   A player with above average speed and major league average tools in other categories.   In 2011, Lough cut his strikeout rate while keeping the same walk rate AND upping his average, on-base percentage and slugging.  Still, he toiled in Omaha as Hosmer, Moustakas, Giavotella and Perez breezed in and out of town.  He played next to Lorenzo Cain, who hit a better but not dissimilar .312/.380/.497, and was anointed the club’s new centerfielder for 2012.

Lough watched the speedy Jarrod Dyson get major league time and heard Dyson’s name mentioned as a very real possibility to make the Royals in 2012.  He watched Mitch Maier, a player with virtually identical career minor league stats, spend his THIRD full major league season basically watching the other guys play.  Question:  would you rather get 113 at-bats in the majors or play everyday in AAA?

Heck, when it comes to prospects who people want to give a chance, Lough’s name falls well behind that of Clint Robinson and, at times, even Irving Falu. 

It’s funny how baseball works, isn’t it?   If David Lough was a year older than Mitch Maier, I have no doubt that he would have at least a couple hundred major league games on his resume.  There is a chance that Lough might have become that ‘David DeJesus with a little better power and a little better speed’ that I (and many others) thought he might be.

That said, and we forget this, but David DeJesus was an on-base machine in the minors.   While Lough has put up good numbers (.299/.354/.468 overall), DeJesus hit .301/.400/.464.   In AAA, David smoked the ball to the tune of .308/.406/.489 and parlayed that into a nice major league career.   Even with a miserable 2011, DeJesus carries a major league line of .284/.356/.421.   A very rough comparison of Lough vs. DeJesus in the minors makes it seem like that line is Lough’s ceiling and, assuming Cain is as good as I want him to be, that doesn’t get you a starting gig on the Kansas City Royals.

I wonder if San Diego’s Chris Denorfia is a better comp?  He hit .293/.365/.434 in the minors, .303/.362/.451 in AAA and has turned that into a .275/.342/.399 (OPS+ 104) in the majors.   Denorfia hit .271/.335/.433 in 2010 and .277/.337/.381 last year, playing half the time in Petco Park.   This is not statistical analysis, just some crude comparison shopping, but I look at Lough and his numbers and see a major league mark that looks a lot like Denorfia’s .271/.335/.433 of 2010.

That’s not bad.  Hell, we have said this a lot lately, but that gets you 140 games for this team a few years ago.  That, however, does not get you on the major league roster in 2012.  Not on a team that hopes to play Gordon-Cain-Francouer 155 times this season.   Not on a team that, rightly or wrongly, would not mind having Jarrod Dyson on their 25 man roster just to pinch run in the late innings and not on a team that has Mitch Maier who can compentently play all three outfield spots and causes no trouble at all no matter how many days in a row he sits on the bench.

Does David Lough have trade value?  Not on his own, he doesn’t, but as a throw in to top off a two for one or three for one deal, he might.  Frankly, I have little doubt that Lough could be a decent fourth outfielder for just about any team and, in the right situation, might be somebody’s David DeJesus or, at least, someone’s Matt Diaz.  Yes, I know Diaz bats righthanded, I’m talking niches here.

The thing is, I don’t see David Lough being any of the above for the Kansas City Royals.  He is not one, but two big injuries (everyone knock wood there) away from sniffing the majors this spring and, with any luck, by summer he will be staring across the outfield at a bonafide stud in Wil Myers.  A good summer by Myers and another by Brett Eibner – not to mention a slew of young ‘almost prospects’ percolating in A ball – and David Lough could be forever buried on the organizational depth chart.

Now, all that could blow apart.   Quite frankly, Billy Butler is the ONLY player in this organization who has proven he can hit major league pitching consistently from year to year.  Sure, we believe Gordon has gotten it, Hosmer will be a star, Frenchy’s in shape, Moose will hit, ditto for Giavotella and on and on.  Truth is, Lorenzo Cain might hit July 1 on pace to strike out 175 times.  Wil Myers might hit .255.   Somebody could get hurt and Ned Yost might not be able to tolerate Jarrod Dyson’s bat going backwards when it impacts a major league fastball.   As nice as Mitch Maier is and as hard as he works, will the Royals tolerate his .232/.345/.337 line on an everyday basis?

Things could go bad and that’s why deep organizations have a David Lough on their 40 man roster.   There is a decent chance that when we dive into this roster review next off-season, Lough will not be on our list.   I would kind of like to see what Lough can do in the majors – he is not without skill and some potential – but if everything goes right, his shot will not be in Kansas City.

Here’s something you don’t get to say very often:  right now, David Lough would have a better shot at making the majors with the Boston Red Sox than with the Kansas City Royals.  I have to be honest, it felt pretty good typing that.

xxx

 

This is the latest post in this series reviewing the Kansas City Royals offensively, position by position.  You can go back and read the posts on catcher (including a series preview),  first base, second base, third base, shortstop, left field and center field.

First, as usual, we’ll take a look at the players who got the lion’s share of playing time in right field, and how they hit when they played the position.

Prior to his injury, David Dejesus was having a great year at the plate.  He was getting on base at a high clip, but not hitting for a ton of power.  He was a valuable offensive and defensive asset.  Mitch Maier filled in well when his number was called as well.  He was roughly an average offensive right fielder and from what I saw he was a good fielder taboot.  Willie Bloomquist was Willie Bloomquist, subbing in whenever and wherever he was needed and held his own in the amount of time he was given.  Jose Guillen was surviving his final, very expensive season with the Royals in 2010.  Finally, the Royals realized he no longer had the range to play in the outfield regularly and he only got 21 games at the position.

The first thing that jumps out at me is that the American League right fielders are a pretty good hitting group.  A wOBA of .344 would be good for 7th place among left fielders, but it’s 11th for right fielders.  That seems to be a drastic difference.  The Royals right fielders as a unit were in the lower half of  offensive production in the American League, but they were pretty close to being average.  Slugging was a concern, particularly for a corner outfield spot.  Usually, teams like to get some pop from right and left field.

After looking at all of the different fielding positions now, it is clear that the outfield is clearly an area for improvement.  Center field and right field both were below average offensive positions for the Royals in 2010 and were mostly manned by players who likely don’t have a long future with the team.  With that in mind, obtaining an upgrade at one or both positions in free agency is likely a quick way to improve the team.  In fact, that’s exactly what Dayton Moore did at the winter meetings, by acquiring both Jeff Francouer and Melky Cabrera.

Francouer, however is actually an offensive downgrade from what the Royals did in 2010.  His career wOBA is .314 which would only have been better than the Athletics as a team last year.  It seems pretty likely that Francouer will get the bulk of the playing time in right field in 2011, and while he may be a decent glove, he is an offensive downgrade.

Melky Cabrera will likely be put in center field, but he wasn’t signed when I wrote that review so I’ll just comment on him here.  Offensively, center field was very anemic for the Royals in 2010, so nearly any player would be an upgrade at that spot.  The Royals signed Melky Cabrera to fill that role in 2011 and if he is better, it’s marginal.  In 2010 the Royals center fielders put up a .211 wOBA and Cabrera’s career wOBA is .312.  Cabrera has been inconsistent though, putting up wOBAs in excess of .330 twice (2006, 2009) and sub .300 twice (2010, 2008).  If Cabrera is closer to the .330 than the .300 mark, then he could be a real upgrade offensively at center field in 2011.

The outfield is one of the weaker positions in the Royals minor league system, particularly impact corner outfield bats.  The closest to Major League ready is likely David Lough, who could make a September call up or might make the team sooner if there is an injury or other moves.

I’ll be honest, I don’t have an opinion on the new name of the Royals’ Triple-A affiliate.   My only real opinion is that I don’t like teams changing names, be it good or bad, and as such the new Omaha Stormchasers is nothing that gets me excited.

What does get me excited, however, is the Omaha team’s possible lineup next April.   Perhaps as much as anything else, it will represent just how much potential progress the Royals’ organization has made under Dayton Moore.

After years of being the depository of has-beens, almosts and never-weres, the Omaha Royals/Stormchasers are going to offer a somewhat breathtaking array of talent when they take the field next April.   Gone are the days of Brian Buchanan, Gookie Dawkins, Seth Etherton and Brandon Duckworth (all fine humans, I’m sure, but not exactly the solution to any major league problem that might arise during a season).   Instead, the Stormchasers might well roll out this lineup when they open up in their new stadium next spring:

Derrick Robinson, CF

Johnny Giavotella, 2B

Mike Moustakas, 3B

Eric Hosmer, 1B

Clint Robinson, DH

David Lough, RF

Paulo Orlando, LF

Jeff Bianchi, SS

Manny Pina, C

It may be a stretch to have Bianchi at shortstop that early, but he should figure into the mix at some point.   It is also possible that David Lough could well open 2011 in Kansas City, but for now we will start him off in Omaha.

When you couple this lineup with what is likely to be a bullpen stocked with near major league ready homegrown talent (Louis Coleman, Blaine Hardy, et.al.) and a starting rotation which at some point will include Mike Montgomery, Danny Duffy, John Lamb and Chris Dwyer (maybe even Aaron Crow), it will be hard to resist making a trek or two to Omaha in 2011.

While the organizational pitching depth is near legendary status at this point, the real positive about the Omaha roster next season is the position players who are not on it.

Just a rung below, we are likely to see Wil Myers (be it at catcher or in the outfield), middle infielder of the near future Christian Colon and catching prospect Salvador Perez.   When is the last time you could look at the AA and AAA batting orders and say with some degree of confidence that there were five or six future major league regulars playing?

2011 might well be a tough year to be a Kansas City Royals’ fan, but if you can tolerate the new name, it will be a fun year to be a fan of the Stormchasers.

Today is zero hour for the Royals to set their 40-man roster ahead of the upcoming Rule 5 draft.

The rules for the Rule 5 draft are fairly straight forward and simple.  Players eligible for the Rule 5 draft include those who were signed at age 19 and older and have been with a team for four years, and those who were signed at 18 or younger and have been with their team for five years.

Complicating matters for the Royals leading up to the deadline is the fact they are a young organization.  Players eligible for the draft are college players selected in Dayton Moore’s first draft. (For clarification, I’m calling 2007 as GMDM’s first draft.)  When you have a team as stacked in the minors as the Royals are it creates quite the conundrum.

Further complicating matters is the fact the Royals still have… let’s be nice and say they have issues when it comes to acquiring players to fill out their roster.   Case in point:  this month they claimed Joaquin Arias off waivers from the New York Mets.  Not a great claim, but the Royals felt they needed a backup in the middle infield.  Fine.  Except then they claimed Lance Zawadzki from the San Diego Padres.  Basically, the same player – a utility middle infielder who isn’t good enough to hold down a regular role on a half-decent team.

So now, through the magic of two waiver claims, the Royals have filled two spots on their 40-man roster with what we will call surplus.  They don’t really need either one of these guys and they certainly don’t need both.

Then there’s the fact the Royals are mindful of the future.  In other words, we all expect Mike Moustakas to make his debut at some point in the 2011 season.  Because he’s not eligible for the Rule 5 draft, there’s no reason to put him on the 40-man roster at this point.  Still, if the Royals do bring him to Kansas City at some point next summer, they will need to clear a spot for him on the 40-man.

The Royals won’t want to place a player on the 40-man roster now and then have to remove him during the season.  There’s a much better chance for a player to be claimed off waivers than to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

It’s a complicated process.  Dayton Moore has said he will protect three to five players.  Here’s who I think the Royals protect.

Everett Teaford – Since teams have to keep players selected in the Rule 5 on their 25-man roster during the season, these drafts feature a run on pitching.  It’s basically easier to bury a pitcher at the back end of a bullpen, that to keep a bat on what has typically become a very thin bench.  Of all the Royals pitchers eligible for the draft, Teaford is the best of the bunch.  He threw 99 innings last summer for Northwest Arkansas and posted a 3.36 ERA and featured a strikeout rate of 10.3 SO/9.  His control was exceptional as well, with a walk rate of 2.9 BB/9.

He’s an automatic add to the 40-man roster.

Clint Robinson – This one is questionable.  He turns 26 in February and has yet to progress past Double-A.  Except this summer in Northwest Arkansas all the guy did was hit .335/.410/.625 while winning the Texas League triple crown.  As a first baseman, he’s sandwiched between Billy Butler and Kila Ka’aihuie in the majors and Eric Hosmer in the minors.

Still, his monster year in AA was too good to ignore.

David Lough – Lough has been compared to David DeJesus and with DeJesus gone, now is Lough’s chance to show us how accurate those comparisons are.  A little speed, modest power and the ability to make contact does make him sound like DeJesus version 2.0.  Last year he hit .280/.346/.437 for Omaha, so he’s basically ready to make the move for to the majors.  You don’t leave players this close to the majors unprotected.  Someone will take him.  Plus, with the current roster thin on outfielders, there’s a chance he will open the season as a starter.

Another automatic choice.

That’s it.  Those are my three.  That means three must go.  I leave players like Derrick Robinson and Paulo Orlando exposed.  Those guys won’t be drafted as they’re marginal major league players at this point in their careers.  Same for pitchers Eduardo Paulino and Mario Santiago.  Their skill sets won’t translate well to the majors at this point in their respective careers.

Fortunately, even though the Royals needlessly added a pair of utility infielders, there’s still plenty of fat to trim off this roster.

I think Gaby Hernandez is gone for sure.  Once upon a time he dominated in the lower minors, but as he progressed he started catching too much of the plate and became incredibly hittable.  He’s one the wrong side of the fringe.

Victor Marte has done well in Triple-A, but has been absolutely battered in a pair of turns in the majors.  The guy just doesn’t miss enough bats and doesn’t have the stuff to survive in the major leagues.

Then there’s a coin flip between Bryan Bullington and Phillip Humber.  I think one of these guys will go.  The one who remains will get a shot at the back end of the Royals rotation.  Or perhaps in the bullpen as a swingman.

Those are my choices.  Get in early and leave yours in the comments.

After yesterday’s 12 inning win, I know of at least one loyal commenter to this site who is delighted and one big league manager who is smirking at everyone right now.   Not to mention at least one writer on this site who is delighted with Kila Ka’aihue’s home run, double and two walk game yesterday.

Given that Ned Yost did the unthinkable by batting Willie Bloomquist third (even national guys were chiming in on Twitter with sarcastic comments), then guaranteed that Willie would get two hits and THEN actually saw the guy do it, including the game winning homer, who am I to criticize?   Frankly, I don’t even know what to say.

Instead, let’s take a quick look at what the expanded roster in September might include.   Who, if anyone, will get a call-up and of those, who will actually get a real look?  

We’ll start with the easy ones:  veteran players who have been on the disabled list:

  • Gil Meche – all signs point to Gil getting a look out of the bullpen next month.  The Royals will be careful with him at this point, so we won’t see him even every other day, but I imagine six or seven appearances at least.  The snag here is that Gil is on the 60 day disabled list (which does not take a 40 man roster spot) and a spot would have to be made on the 40 man roster to accommodate his activation.
  • Luke Hochevar – if you can believe the organization, Hochevar will make a rehab start or two shortly, which would put him on pace for a couple of September starts.  Part of me says that is a good idea, the other part of me says that Hochevar should just shut down and come back 100% next spring.
  • Brian Bannister – probably could be pitching right now if the Royals really wanted him to.   Made a two inning appearance in Omaha earlier this week and will be back up in September.   Brian’s September starts – he might well step into a regular rotation spot for the month – will likely determine if he has a future with the Royals.
  • Robinston Tejeda – supposedly will be ready in early September.   If he is, Tejeda will step back into the late inning setup role that currently makes him the third most stable member of the entire staff.
  • Josh Fields – remember him?  He has been on a rehab assignment in Northwest Arkansas after spending the season the 60 day disabled list.     Like Meche, someone has to go if Fields comes off the 60 day DL.
  • David DeJesus – there was talk of getting him back in the final couple weeks of the season, but I have not heard much about that as of late.  You kind of wonder why the rush given that DeJesus is clearly the best outfielder in the organization and not exactly a mystery as to what he will give you when healthy in 2011.

I am pretty sure the organization wants to see what Meche looks like coming out of the bullpen, so he will be activated from the 60 day DL.   They could make space on the roster for him by shifting DeJesus to the 60 day list or Hochevar if they decide to shut him down until next spring.   If the Royals also want to bring Fields up, then they will need another spot cleared.    They could make room by putting Jeff Bianchi on the 60 day list, as he has not played yet this year or Noel Arguelles, who is apparently not going to pitch this season, either.

Now, what about other guys that might get a look in September?   We will start with players who are on the 40 man roster now and would not require any correponding roster move to come up to the majors:

  • Victor Marte – I put him here only because he is on the 40 man roster and the organization still seems to have some attraction to him.   Now, given that with the above veteran activations, the Royals’ staff could already be at 15 pitchers, they might just call it good.   I have no burning desire to see Marte again and would, in fact, advocate his removal from the 40 man in favor of calling up someone else.
  • Brian Anderson – if you look at the Royals website, Anderson is listed under outfielders, but he has transitioned quickly into a relief pitcher.   Playing at three levels this year, after a lengthy instructional stint in Arizona, Anderson has thrown 13.1 innings, struck out 14 and allowed just six hits.  In three innings thus far in AAA,  Brian has been perfect.   That the Royals already have him pitching in AAA tells me they don’t want to waste any time with Anderson.  I think he comes up and gets a handful of September appearances once Omaha’s season is over.  The O-Royals, by the way, are in the hunt for a playoff berth, so they could conceivably be playing into the teens of September.  I don’t imagine anyone on that roster gets the call until that is wrapped up.
  • Amongst position players, the other guys already on the roster that might get consideration are catcher Lucas May and outfielders Jarrod Dyson and Jordan Parraz.   I could see May getting a call ‘just to get a feel for the majors’, but if he does he will not play much.   If Trey Hillman was still manager, Dyson would probably be up now, but he is hitting just .257 in Omaha and the organization would be better served by getting a true look at Gregor Blanco this September.   As for Parraz, his season was probably not enough to warrant a spot on the dugout bench.

Now, it gets interesting, as the players we are going discuss might well deserve a look, but would require making a 40 man roster move to get them to the majors:

  • Mike Moustakas – .273/.294/.453 in AAA probably cooled any front office ideas of giving Mike a look this year, but he has improved over time at this level (including an .856 OPS the last 10 games).  That said, with the Royals wanting to see what they have in Wilson Betemit and likely to take a look at Josh Fields, I imagine Moustakas’ major league career will start sometime next summer instead of this fall.
  • David Lough – A slow start this year has kept Lough’s numbers in Omaha to a modest .279/.343/.440, but he has exploded in August with a 1.006 OPS.   This is a guy who could truly factor into the Royals’ future, especially if 2011 turns out to be DeJesus’ last year with the club.   Who would you rather see, Lough or Victor Marte?   There’s your roster move if you want a look at Lough.
  • Louis Coleman – It’s always nice when a plan works and the Royals’ plan for Coleman after drafting him in 2009 was to ‘fast track’  him as a reliever.   Just over one year later, Coleman is in AAA with 39 strikeouts in 33 innings and opponents batting just .214 against him.   If Lough in place of Marte, why not Coleman?   If the future of the bullpen is Coleman and Greg Holland (who has struggled thus far in the majors, but has a habit of doing so the first couple weeks at a new level before become pretty decent) are the future of the pen in front of Tejeda and Soria, the Royals would be wise to make that move this September.
  • Blaine Hardy – He was dominant as a reliever, I mean flat-out dominant, at four levels including AAA before the Royals moved him into a starting role.    Blaine has been just okay as a starter (7 starts) but probably is not ready for major league action in that role.  I would expect some fall/winter work with an eye towards him getting a shot at the number five starter role next spring. 
  • Ed Lucas – He has played pretty much every position and hit .304/.394/.500 this year in Omaha, but I don’t know what the Royals do with him in the majors this September.   They want to get a good look at Getz, will not impinge on the Yunigma’s playing time and already have Aviles and yesterday’s hero Bloomquist.   It would be nice to reward Lucas for a good season with a major league salary for part of the month, but the Royals probably don’t want to mess with the 40 man roster just to be nice.

So, in the end, the September roster likely will swell quite a bit, but not with any player all that exciting.   Meche, Hochevar, Bannister, Tejeda and Fields are almost certainties.   With a pretty good chance that May and Anderson get a call, if not much of a look, once Omaha’s season wraps up.    After that, the club could get imaginative and bring up Coleman or Lough, or stay the course and look to Victor Marte once more for no other reason than he has been in the majors this year and has a 40 man roster spot.

Truthfully, the players the Royals really need to get a feel for are already up and playing in Kansas City.   That is progress right there over previous years under this regime.