All-Star Break time… The artificial midpoint in the baseball season. We’re fairly close, I guess – the Royals have played 88 games this season – just seven past the midpoint. That means it’s time for my annual exercise where I grade the team. Hitters today, pitchers and management on Friday.
We’ll travel around the horn…
Despite my persistent Kendall bashing, our backstop (is there anyone else on this team who catches?) has gone on a mini hot streak of late. Since June 23, he’s raised his OBP 18 points and even had a game where he hit two doubles. Two! That’s help raise his slugging almost level with his on base percentage.
Look, we knew Kendall would get most of the reps behind the plate, but this is insane. The old man has been behind the plate for 92% of all Royal defensive innings. Poor Brayan Pena has to be wondering what he has to do to get some time… Steal Kendall’s cup?
I guess my problem isn’t with Kendall per se, but with an organization that seems to think he has some value.
Fun fact: Since Ned Yost took over as manager, Kendall is 2-8 in stolen base attempts. Hmmm… A 25% success rate is… Not good.
Butler leads this team in OPS (.873), OPS+ (137)
The downside of Butler’s season is his continued insistence on hitting balls on the ground. Over 46% of all of Butler’s batted balls have been grounders. That wouldn’t be so bad, but the guy isn’t exactly a speed merchant. When he puts the ball on the ground, he’s batting just .219. When he hits a fly ball, his average is .295. On line drives? Try .857.
We’ve said it time and again – for Butler to become the dominant hitter we think (and hope) he can become, he’s going to have to alter his approach and try to drive more balls in the air. He’s obviously mastered the art of hitting the double, now he needs to turn a few of those doubles into home runs. The scary thing is, he’s improved his contact rate from last season and has bumped it to above 90%. He’s a hitting machine with room for improvement. Excellent.
It’s going to only get more difficult for Butler. The dude has zero protection in the Royals lineup. He already has nine walks this month (one intentional) after walking just eight times all of June. That’s what happens when you have a singles hitter batting fifth.
Defensively, it seems like he’s better. His UZR is a fat, round 0. That may not sound like much, but given his negative rates the last two seasons, I’ll take it. According to the Fielding Bible’s Plus/Minus rating, Butler is a 0 here as well. Again, improved on his negative numbers from the last two seasons. The Fielding Bible data says he’s a +3 at ground balls to his right, which in the past has been one of the weaker links of his fielding.
Aviles has done well in his return from Tommy John surgery. The Royals were being cautious in sending him to Omaha early in the season, although many of us thought they were looking to bury him. Thankfully, that wasn’t the case. The Royals are a better offensive team with Aviles in the lineup.
One thing still missing – his power. He hit 10 home runs and 27 doubles as a rookie in 441 plate appearances. In 220 plate appearances this year (almost exactly half… Yay!) he’s down to just two home runs and nine doubles. As you would expect, his ISO is roughly half his final total of 2008. He currently has a .081 ISO compared to his .155 ISO in 2008. As a result, his slugging percentage is a full 100 points lower from ’08.
Defensively, he’s shown some decent range at second and looks comfortable turning the double play from that side of the bag. I look forward to the day he can shift back to shortstop, though… For obvious reasons.
Don’t buy into the school of thought rolling around the Royals that Yuni “isn’t really that bad.” Admit it. You’ve probably said those exact words at least once this year. That’s probably because Yuni has gotten a timely hit or two, something he absolutely never did last summer. Then ask yourself this: Why do you remember the timely Betancourt hits? It’s because you have such low expectations, you expect him to fail and you’re surprised on those rare occasions where he manages to come through.
Stop it. He still sucks.
Offensively, he’s fifth from the bottom in on base percentage and jsut outside the bottom ten in OPS+ (his OPS+ of 81 has him tied for 11th) The good news: He’s no longer the worst everyday player in baseball. In fact, he’s not even the worst everyday player on the Royals. (We’re mailing Jason Kendall his “prize.”) Defensively, the guy is still a train wreck. For every difficult ball he catches, he let’s three under his glove.
Callaspo is not having a good year. In trying to figure out where it’s going wrong for him, I found three things:
1- He’s striking out more than he’s walking for the first time since arriving in Kansas City. His SO/BB ratio from the previous two seasons was 0.92. This year, he has a 1.6 SO/BB ratio.
2- Part of his on base struggles are poor luck. He has a .276 BABIP, down from a .316 BABIP the previous two seasons.
That’s really about it. He’s swinging the same number of times and making the same rate of contact. He’s hitting slightly fewer line drives, but it’s not enough of a difference to explain his lower batting average or on base percentage.
Defensively, he’s doing fine at third. Callaspo has converted 88% of all fielded balls into at least one out as a third baseman. League average is 87%. I can live with that – especially if he can get his bat going.
I think Callaspo will have a much better second half.
I wrote a piece at Baseball Prospectus last week, where Pods was mentioned as a fantasy asset. I know. It sounds just as weird to write that as it is to say it.
Still, the guy is hitting for a fine average, getting on base and stealing bases almost like it’s the mid-1980’s all over again. Color me shocked that he’s coming extremely close to duplicating his 2009 season where he finished at .304/.353/.412 with 30 steals. Hell, he’s just five steals away from last year’s total, so you know he’s going to fly right by that.
Having sung his praises, there are still a few issues. Namely his base running. While he’s stolen 25 bases, he’s been caught a league high 11 times. That’s a 69% success rate, which means in the big picture, his running is hurting the team. He’s been picked off three times and made a couple of other outs on the bases.
His .341 BABIP is extremely high, so don’t be thinking he’s going to finish the season above .300. This means his OBP will drop as well, especially because he still won’t take a walk.
This grade may seem low, but I just can’t overlook the number of outs he gives away on the bases.
To those media types who call David DeJesus a fourth outfielder… This is your fourth outfielder.
I’m glad Maier is getting another chance. He doesn’t do anything really well, but he doesn’t seem to hurt the team, either. He’s shown improvement from last year, but it’s not a huge – or even really noticeable – improvement.
He leads the team with a 10% walk rate, so that gets a thumbs up from me.
He should have been the Royals All-Star. And that he wasn’t on that “Fan Choice” ballot of trickery would be an outrage if I could only muster the requisite emotion to care.
Hands down, the MVP of this team in 2010.
Since June 1, Guillen has a grand total of seven extra base hits and eight walks. That may be the craziest stat I’ll find all season.
Even with the power outage, Guillen is the third best hitter on the team this year.
On to the bench, in order of number of plate appearances:
I know some have hopes for Getz to turn into a serviceable bat to go along with a decent glove, but I just don’t see it. He makes enough contact, but he’s just not good enough to make solid contact.
My least favorite moment of 2010 was probably when I learned Bloomquist was DHing against the White Sox last weekend. The justification (Wee Willie was 13-33 against starter Mark Buehrle in his career) was borderline insane. Although it is just like the Royals to determine their lineup against a sample size so minute to call it “small” would be overstating it.
To be fair, Bloomquist’s .239 BABIP suggests he’s been the victim of some really bad luck. And I’m extremely pleased one year after giving Wee Willie 468 plate appearances the Royals seem to figured out how to use him. He’s on pace for around 175 plate appearances this year. Much better.
So Guillen had blood clots, almost died, and the Royals decided they needed to sign Ankiel. Ugh.
You know all the Lebron bashing happening right now… How Jordan would never have joined another team and played second fiddle to another established star… How Lebron will never be an alpha dog because he made this decision? That’s kind of how I feel about Ankiel turning down an opportunity to play for the Yankees when the Royals promised him center field. It told me everything I needed to know about Ankiel.
Yeah, I’m still sore about that.
Ankiel is another dud in the Royals attempts to sign a veteran with the intent of dealing him at the trade deadline. Not to wish continued injury on someone, but I don’t think he needs to come back. The Royals are a better team with him not in the lineup.
Those are some impressive numbers, but he’s done that in what is basically two and a half weeks of regular work.
The hope is the Royals realize Betemit can handle the DH duties and finally jettison Guillen. (Yes, I know Guillen has no value, but I’m just ready for his time in KC to end. Sometimes, it’s just better to move on… Quickly.)
Still, it’s nice to see the Braves pipeline actually you know… work. Even for a little bit.
2009 was supposed to be the key year. Then it was 2010.
Now it’s 2011.
I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it’s for another team.
Although I will hold out hope the Royals can trade Podsednik and make room for Gordon on the roster before August. I’d like to see at least two months of Gordon everyday. Please.
Who? This grade is more a reflection of Hillman and Yost.
As always, thanks for reading all the way through. Now it’s your turn to weigh in on the comments. Too harsh? Not harsh enough? Or just right? Fire away…