Comparing players is an inexact science and can all too easily lead one down the wrong path.   Both Rany and myself, among others (and I was before Rany, but who’s keeping track?) have circulated the similarities in both age and performance between Kila Ka’aihue and Travis Hafner.   

Frankly, if you want to prove a player might be good in the future, a few minutes on Baseball Reference will get you a comparable early history that will allow you to make a case that your prospect is on his way to the Hall of Fame.   Of course, the same few minutes will allow someone else to find an equally applicable comparable that will make the case that your highly regarded prospect is on his way to playing in the Can-Am League.

Last spring, I offered the Chris Getz-Brian Roberts comparison as their minor league numbers, ages and early major league careers were eerily similar.   Maybe that will still work out, but that analysis remains a damning indictment of my admittedly biased research.

Undaunted, however, I continue down the same path this morning. 

Probably no position in the Royals’ organization is as desperate for a prospect to come through than shortstop.   Ignoring the Yuni is good-Yuni is awful argument that frankly has just worn me out, the truth is that Betancourt’s track record should not be giving anyone reason to consider him being the Royals’ shortstop past next season.

With Mike Aviles apparently destined to play second or third and Jeff Bianchi beginning his comeback from arm surgery, which would seem to indicate at least a temporary move to second for part of 2011, the Royals’ future at shortstop rests squarely on the shoulders of last summer’s first round pick Christian Colon.

And that brings us back (at last) to our title.  

The similarities between Colon and Troy Tulowitzki:

  • They both played shortstop at highly regarded college programs in California.
  • They were both drafted in high in the first round (Colon 4th & Tulo 7th).
  • At the time, both were considered the ‘most major league ready’ of their draft class.
  • Both started their professional careers in High A ball.

At age 20 back in 2005, Tulowitzki played in 22 games for the Rockies’ affiliate in Modesto.   He hit .266/.343/.457/.800 with 6 doubles and 4 home runs in 105 plate appearances.    Troy struck out 18 times, walked nine and committed 5 errors.

By contrast, at age 21, Colon hit .278/.326/.380/.708 in 60 games for Wilmington last season.   He hit 12 doubles, 2 triples and 3 home runs.   Christian struck out 33 times, walked 13 and committed 17 errors.

While the strikeouts, walks and error rates are really pretty similar between the two, Tulowitzki posted better all around offensive numbers than Colon in their first professional seasons.   At least when you look at the raw numbers.

That 2005 Modesto team hit .281/.355/.445/.800 as a team and the California League as a whole hit .286/.357/.452/.809 that season.   Basically, Tulowitzki posted offensive numbers right in line with what his team and the league did.

The 2010 Wilmington team hit .262/.319/.387/.707 and the Carolina League as a whole hit .260/.330/.388/.718 last season.   Basically, Colon posted offensive numbers right in line with what his team and the league did.

Following his rookie campaign, Tulowitzki moved up to AA Tulsa and hit .291/.370/.473/.843 in 104 games, slugging 34 doubles and 13 home runs.   It is also noteworthy that Troy committed TWENTY-FIVE errors that year.   

Tulowitzki also got into 25 games in the majors that season, not really showing much at the plate.   Still, he opened 2007 as the Rockies’ starting shortstop and played in 155 games.   He finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting after posting a .291/.359/.479/.838 line.    Tulowitzki suffered through an injury plagued 2008, but has been basically great in the two years since.

Can we expect Christian Colon to have a similar career path?   That’s asking a lot and, as I started column with, my guess is many of you can find a player with Colon’s first year stats that was never heard from again.  

Still, while a lot of us viewed Colon’s rookie season as something of a disappointment, it was really no worse – relative to his league – than that of Tulowitzki.     Like Troy, Christian will move to the Texas League for his second pro season and maybe, just maybe, he too will blossom offensively.

The Royals will never admit it, but deep down they drafted Christian Colon with the idea he would be the club’s 2012 shortstop.   Can he make it in the majors?   Can he make to the majors that quickly?  Can he stick at shortstop? 

All relevant questions that the Royals may need to have answered ‘yes’ more than any other set of questions within the organization.