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Royals Authority

Deconstructing The Process

Browsing Posts published on October 14, 2015

The Royals took the field just after seven in the evening on Wednesday night. Well, most of the team. Starting pitcher Johnny Cueto didn’t make an appearance until a minute or so after the rest of the nine had found their place on the field and started their warmups. A dramatic entrance? Perhaps. All eyes were on Cueto as he finally emerged from the home dugout and hopped over the first base line on his way to the mound.

As written in this space early on Wednesday, this was the start that would define Cueto’s tenure with the Royals.

The vibe at The K for Game One was strange. It was a playoff game, but it didn’t have near the energy of the games we experienced in 2014. Was it old hat? Was it elevated expectations after having the best record in the AL? Was it the rain that arrived almost simultaneously with the first pitch? Tough to say, but the crowd never got into the game. That wasn’t the case for Game Five.

From the emotional start with the tribute to Kansas City’s fallen heroes, through a magnificent rendition of the national anthem, to the first pitch of the game, the crowd was locked in and on point. Six outs from elimination on Monday, it was as if the fans realized they could provide enough energy to will this team to victory. It was an unbelievable atmosphere.

The crowd lifted Cueto from the moment he stepped on the field. It cheered every strike and groaned at every ball. Cueto pitched a magnificent opening frame, retiring the top three batters in order. He hit a patch of poor luck in the second when Moustakas made a fine grab of a Evan Gattis shot down the line. It’s a play the Moustakas-Hosmer combo has made a number of times, but on this occasion, the throw pulled Hosmer into foul territory and off the bag. Hosmer stabbed the ball and was able to put the tag on Gattis, but the ball rolled free. With a runner on first, Cueto fiddled with the dirt in front of the mound. He didn’t like where he was landing in the second, and he stomped around the hill trying to get a spot to his liking.

Cueto came to set in the stretch and delivered a pitch to Luis Valbuena.

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It was the only pitch Cueto would deliver from the stretch all night.

Quite simply, this was one of the best pitching performances in Royals postseason history. Cueto would go on to retire the next 19 batters. It was amazing.

Yet after the home run, the Royals were behind. Their plan of attack against Collin McHugh seemed to be about swinging early in the count. McHugh didn’t figure to generate many swings and misses, so the Royals thought they could pull the old “ambush.”

It wasn’t working. The Royals were retired on nine pitches in the first, seven in the second, and just 11 in the third. We know the Royals are aggressive at the plate and love to take their hacks, but this bordered on the ridiculous. It would be necessary to change their approach. The second time through the order, the Royals needed to exhibit the patience they did in Game Four and work the count. They knew they could make contact, but after hacking through their first three innings, they needed to get in favorable hitters counts to take full advantage.

They chipped away in the fourth. After a Lorenzo Cain checked swing got the blessing of the Gods of BABIP and fell into right field, Eric Hosmer stepped to the plate. On a 3-2 count, Hosmer dumped a single to center field. Astros center fielder Carlos Gomez charged the ball and Cain, running on the pitch, raced to third. It should have been runners on the corners, but Gomez slipped after fielding the ball. Third base coach Mike Jirschle watching the play all the way, activated the windmill. Cain scored easily. Across the diamond, first base coach Rusty Kuntz pointed at Jirche and acknowledged the play with a fist pump. The Royals cut the lead in half.

The Royals grabbed more in the fifth. This was the inning McHugh lost command with his curve. He hit Salvador Perez on a 3-2 curve and bounced several others. Alex Gordon worked the count full and knowing McHugh needed to throw a fastball for a strike, sat dead red and drilled one to right-center. It bounced over the wall for a ground rule double, placing runners at second and third.

This was a moment that had so often failed the Royals before the eighth inning of Game Four. They had multiple opportunities to break open these games, but struggled in run scoring situations.

Up stepped Alex Rios. Rios’ struggles have been well documented. There were rumblings he would be left off the Royals postseason roster in favor of a Paulo Orlando and Jarrod Dyson platoon. A solid September secured his spot, but he still had to convince Royals fans. So many times he hadn’t come through in pivotal moments. Wednesday would be different. Wednesday was his time.

Ríos laced a ball just inside the third base bag and down the line. Two runs scored. The Royals lead.

Of course it had to be Rios.

An Alcides Escobar sacrifice bunt and Ben Zobrist sacrifice fly checked the appropriate boxes on the “productive outs” square on Royals Bingo and the Royals tacked on a fourth run.

From that point, it was the Cueto show. The K elevated and Cueto dominated. He retired the next 19 Astro batters. He shimmied. He quick pitched. He flummoxed Astro batters. Cueto needed just five pitches to work a sixth inning that featured a patented Alex Gordon sliding catch. Cueto came back out for the seventh to a rousing ovation. The Royals bullpen stirred. The Ned Yost Bullpen Blueprint says that when the starting pitcher goes deep into a game with the Royals lead, he will allow his starter to go until a batter reaches base. Then, the bullpen is activated. The Astros all world shortstop Carlos Correa led off the frame and hit a looper that was going over the head of second baseman Ben Zobrist. It was probably going to end Cueto’s night. Except Zobrist summoned every inch of his body to elevate and pull the ball from the air, robbing Correa of a certain hit. The BABIP Gods had spurned the Astros in favor of the Royals.

Cueto needed this performance. He was locked in and in command all night. There was nothing Astro batters could do. The crowd seemingly got louder and louder with each out, lifting Cueto. Pushing him to the summit. Making him Forever Royal.

In a last ditch effort to keep the deficit at two runs, AJ Hinch summoned Dallas Keuchel from the bullpen. Keuchel’s availability had been the point of much pregame debate. Many thought he would be good for only a batter or two. Escobar drilled a double and Zobrist lined out to second. Two hard hit balls. Cain was intentionally walked and in a lefty-lefty match-up, Hosmer fouled out. Keuchel stayed in to push Kendrys Morales to the right side of the plate.

After picking up the first two strikes, Keuchel missed twice away. He came back with a slider down, but over the middle of the plate. Morales sent the ball into orbit and the fans into delirium.

Morales’ trip around the bases was the one of the most joyous things I’ve ever experienced at The K. Arms outstretched as he reached first, it was as if he was embracing The K. The K loved him right back. A free agent signing that was panned last December was paying massive dividends in October. Who knew?

All that was left was the appearance of The Wade Davis Experience. It’s not an official Royals win until Perez dumps the Gatorade bucket on someone. Tonight, it was Ned Yost’s turn. Just the perfect finish to another perfect evening at The K.

It’s an easy adjective, perfect, but I don’t know if you could find a better one to describe this night. Perfection was all around.

And now the Royals return to the ALCS for the second consecutive year.

Sometimes, the Baseball Gods smile. Sometimes, circumstances align to give fans a gift. A moment that can define a season. Or a career.

Johnny Cueto’s start today is such an event.

Cueto, acquired in a trade deadline deal by Dayton Moore, was not brought to Kansas City to win a division. The Royals already had a sizable lead when Moore pulled the trigger on a trade sending three left-handers to Cincinnati. No, the Royals brought Cueto to KC for the postseason. To start in big games. For moments like these.

All postseason starts are large, but they are not all created equal. I don’t need to tell you, today is massive. This is Game Five of a best of five game series. This is the most important start of the 2015 season for the Royals and it’s the biggest game of Cueto’s career. One start. A handful of innings. That’s what will define Cueto’s tenure in the Royals starting rotation. Success or flop, it all hinges on what happens when he grips the ball and stands 60 feet and six inches from Sal Perez at little after seven o’clock on Wednesday evening.

Trades are rarely tidy. Fans and pundits alike want to pass judgement quickly, but it’s never that simple. Today, Royals fans feel great about the Zack Greinke trade (come on down Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar) and the Wil Myers deal (thank you, Wade Davis) but at the time, both deals were universally panned. These things take time to resolve. The Cueto deal was not such a trade. Last July the Royals knew they needed to fortify their starting rotation heading into October. Moore explored the market, identified the best pitcher available, and made him a Royal. Moore gets massive credit for making this move. You may or may not believe in teams having windows of contention. No matter. Yet when you have opportunity, you’d better be ready to strike. The players Moore shipped to Cincinnati may develop into useful major leaguers and could provide value to the Reds for years. That won’t matter if Cueto steps up and becomes an integral part of a championship team.

The circumstances of Cueto’s arrival in Kansas City underscore just how unique this situation is. After nearly three decades of selling or inertia at the deadline, the Royals were buyers. Buyers. Because they were contenders. This is unchartered waters for Royals fans.

Then there is the reality that Cueto is a rental. He’s not a long-term Royal, nor was he ever meant to be. His is a mercenary mission. He’s a right arm for hire. A pitcher to be primed for two months before being unleashed in October. And Royals fans, who understand the economics of the game better than any fanbase, are fine with this setup. As long as Cueto delivers on his potential. It’s a potential we haven’t seen in full, so that’s why we are leery ahead of Game Five.

Sometimes, things don’t go according to plan. In 213 starts for the Reds, Cueto posted a 3.21 ERA and 21.7 fWAR. We can quibble over the meaning of the word “ace,” but there can be no debate over Cueto’s status as a top-tier starting pitcher. Cueto’s performance since he switched his Reds for Royals blue has been underwhelming. Over a stretch of five starts he allowed 30 runs in over 26 innings. Woof. It wasn’t just a bad stretch for Cueto. It was a dismal run of starts he had never experienced before. Then came the excuses: He didn’t like where Sal Perez was setting his target. He was distracted by his impending free agency. Blah, blah, blah.

Everyone assumed that Cueto would front the Royals rotation in the postseason. Their large lead would enable the team to shuffle the starters to ensure Cueto would get the baseball in Game One. Except his struggles, combined with the second half surge of Yordano Ventura, meant that Cueto would be pushed back to Game Two. And now here we are.

Honestly, none of the struggles that Cueto has endured in Royals blue matters. It didn’t matter at the time. It doesn’t matter now.

The August 10th four hit shutout against the Tigers? A nice moment, but irrelevant. The September 13 start against the Orioles where he coughed up eight runs in over six innings? Not so nice. Equally irrelevant. Those starts are meaningless because he wasn’t brought here to win or lose games in August or September. He was brought here to front the rotation in October. He was charged with leading the Royals deep into the postseason.

Calling the trade a bust or questioning Cueto’s ace status has been a premature exercise. Judgement was going to be simple and it was going to wait until October. Judgement will likely come today.

The Royals need Cueto. They paid the market rate for a top-notch starting pitcher and they need him to be on his game to get them to the ALCS. And Cueto needs the Royals. He needs this opportunity to wash away the taste of a middling stretch run that could ultimately cost him dollars on the free agent market. He needs to prove that he can be the man in the big situation.

The only thing that matters is what happens on that circular patch of dirt in the middle of The K in Game Five of the ALDS. Just like Dayton Moore drew it up back in late July.

Game on.

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