Royals Authority

The Royals did some stuff on Wednesday, but it was just that: some stuff.

Greg Holland was non-tendered, instead of offering a pitcher who will not pitch in 2016 arbitration. The traded the Jose Martinez that you didn’t know for another back-up catcher, Tony Cruz, and actually did tender a contract to the other back-up catcher, Drew Butera. Hey, if you are going to use your backup catcher a whopping 20 times per season, you ought to have a couple. Three, of course, would be silly and so Kansas City sold Francisco Pena to Baltimore.

Along the way, the Royals also tendered contracts to Louis Coleman, something that was not a certainty, and also to a whole bunch of ‘certanties’: Cain, Moustakas, Duffy and Dyson. Dropped from the 40 man roster was Orlando Calixte. Add Monday’s signing of Tim Collins to a one year deal and you pretty much the Royals’ off-season to date in two entire paragraphs.

Yawn.

Of course, that’s okay. Dayton Moore has something of a reputation for being a quick striker when it comes to the off-season, but that might well have been the product of being the GM of a not very good team. As World Champions, with at least 19 players from last year’s roster coming back, one probably does not need to strike quickly any longer.

Of the smattering of moves and signings made thus far by other teams, has there really been a single one that you wish the Royals had been involved with or even one that effects what the Royals might or might not be able to do this winter? I can’t come up with one. Perhaps no news is good news.

Sadly, given the years and dollars rumored (yes, there are rumors and speculation in the off-season, get over it), I cringe at the thought of ‘Ben Zobrist news’ as it seems very likely any ‘actual’ news surrounding Zobrist will likely include the phrase ‘his former team, the Royals’. For the record, I’d be delighted with Zobrist for three years, but I’m hesitant about four. I do not get too hung up on ‘old’, which is apparently anything with a 3 in front of one’s age, but Ben will be 38 for the bulk of four seasons from now. There is a lot of thin ice and cliffs when you get up around that age as an athlete.

If Zobrist is gone, it would seem the Royals could - should they so choose - go pretty big in an effort to retain Alex Gordon. Four seasons from now, Gordon will be the same age as Ben Zobrist will be this coming year. I’m willing to take a gamble that Alex will still be productive (probably not a Gold Glover any longer, but certainly not Jose Guillen…or Alex Rios) in even year five of a mega-deal.

Truthfully, that IS what we are all waiting for: news about Ben Zobrist and Alex Gordon. The notoriously tight-lipped Royals may well have something cooking with them or a starting pitcher or, just to mess with the baseball world, a good reliever. Some news…any news and not ‘Tony Cruz type’ news.

Or, should we be hoping for no news?

While you are pondering that deep, deep question, maybe someone can enlighten me as to why the idea of extending Lorenzo Cain has so much traction?

I love Cain and his value is undeniable…for now. Yet, I am perplexed that so many who are ready to say good-bye to Alex Gordon couple that sentiment with ‘using the money’ to extend Lorenzo. He will be thirty in April and will be entering his age 32 season when eligible for free-agency, with a history of leg issues.

Give me Gordon and Cain together for the next two seasons and I’ll take a gamble on Gordon (and the Royals) being viable in 2018 and deal with what to do or try to do about Cain then as well.

Quite honestly, there is nothing new to see above. We are all waiting for something to happen and, for at least a decent majority of us, dreading what that something might be.

Winter Meetings are a week away and with the dust yet to settle from the David Price signature in Boston, the free agent market is starting to take shape. For pitchers, anyway.

The Royals were never in for Price (obviously), nor are they in on Zack Greinke. Top tier pitchers are way out of the Royals market. Always have been. Always will.

The developments of Tuesday and the rest of the week underscore how important it is for Dayton Moore and company to draft and develop pitchers. Or failing the development part (which is the norm for the Royals) they at least need to draft well enough to flip those prospects for real major league talent. Moore has inked a handful of free agent starters the last couple of seasons. Jason Vargas signed for four years at $32 million. Edinson Volquez joined for two years at $20 million. Vargas’ injury aside, those deals look quaint in the current economic landscape. And they aren’t especially old deals. That’s how fast the money is flowing around the game.

At the time of the Vargas signing, I thought Moore made a bit of a shrewd gamble. He was paying for a guy who was a back of the rotation starter, but locking him in at a rate that was affordable to the team and could return some value. Early estimates are 1 fWAR will cost around $8 million on the market this year. That contract was a good risk.

So while Moore figured out the fourth starter market, that leaves the front of the rotation. If the top tier are signing these megadeals, that means the secondary market - think guys like Mike Leake and Wei-Yin Chen - are going to cash in as well. The Royals could get frozen out of the starting pitching market forever.

That places a massive burden on the draft. Which means it comes down to the development of starting pitchers. For all the accolades Moore has received the last couple of seasons, he’s gotten a bit of a pass here. But the evidence is clear and disturbing: The Royals have consistently failed when it comes to this aspect of the game.

Matt LaMar did some nice work on this at Royals Review last summer. He went through the prospect lists and found a consensus of Top 100 talent the Royals possessed in the starting pitching ranks. Out of 13 pitchers he identified, exactly one has developed into a quality starting pitcher - Yordano Ventura. The rest reads like road kill: Mike Montgomery, Chris Dwyer, John Lamb. Danny Duffy has continually vexed. At times he’s looked like a solid rotation candidate. Other times he looks more comfortable coming out of the bullpen. I still don’t know where his future lies. Although I know he’d do himself and the Royals a huge favor if he would just fill a role in the rotation.

Obviously, some of those guys were dealt for parts who just helped this team win a championship. That’s massive.

Yet, the point remains: In nine seasons in charge, the Royals have exactly one starting pitcher they have developed who is a lock to contribute in the rotation this coming season.

They say There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect (TINSTAAPP) but this is ridiculous. Why is it so difficult for the Royals to produce a starting pitcher who can contribute? Is it an organizational philosophy where they have treated their young pitchers in a cookie cutter manner, limiting long toss and issuing an edict limiting sliders in young pitchers? It sounds as if their philosophy has shifted - they are a bit more relaxed on individual training regiments - but the Royals have been a team that was risk averse with their young pitchers. Again, understandable. They want to protect their assets. But sometimes caution limits results. A pitcher like Montgomery was particularly vexing. He rolled through the low minors and was actually a candidate to make the team out of spring training a few years ago. He didn’t and was shipped to Triple-A where his Royals career came to a crashing halt. And sometimes caution still yields a worst case scenario. Here I’m thinking Lamb and his Tommy John surgery and subsequent slow recovery.

Whatever the Royals are doing, the results demand a rethink. And the economics of the game demand a quick rethink. We worry about the offensive core departing via free agency the next couple of seasons, but the lack of development of starting pitching could be the real reason the Royals see their window of contention close faster than they expect.