Royals Authority

Reports have the Royals agreeing to a deal with reliever Joakim Soira for three years at around $25 million. As usual, there are rumblings of a mutual option for the fourth year. The Royals have not confirmed the deal, and may not until later in the week, likely pending a physical.

If the deal comes to pass, it’s a welcome home for Soria, who the Royals stole in the Rule 5 draft in December of 2006 and immediately paid dividends. Over five years in Kansas City, Soria had a 2.20 ERA, 160 saves and a 9.6 SO/9. His time with the Royals came to an early end as he underwent a second Tommy John procedure in April of 2012.

Here are three things to consider about the Soria signing:

— Three years seems steep on the surface, but this is the going rate for the relief pitching market. Hey, if Ryan Madson who hadn’t thrown in the big leagues for three years can get a three-year/$22 million deal after throwing just over 63 innings, Soria was always going to get a deal of similar length. Having said that, Soria at three years is a risk based on his health record. He’s four years removed from his second Tommy John surgery. Jeff Zimmerman, writing at The Hardball Times found (starting) pitchers had about 650 innings or four years between their first and second TJ procedure. (That finding comes with a small sample size caveat.) Soria had his first TJ surgery in 2002 when he was in the Dodger organization. His second was with the Royals in April of 2012. A larger gap in years, but the mileage between his first and second is a little less clear. Since returning to action in 2013, Soria has thrown 135 innings. Some may point to insurance as a cover against losing a player to injury (i.e. Jason Vargas) but the industry won’t cover for a recurrence. And Soria has already had two. No way the Royals can find insurances against a third.

Soria’s velocity is stronger than ever. His fastball in 2015 was consistently the hardest he’s thrown in his career.

— How will the Royals use Soria? He has saved 202 games in his career, and former closer Greg Holland was non-tendered as he recovers from his own Tommy John procedure. Yet Wade Davis has been the best reliever in the universe over the last two seasons. We can talk about shuffling roles and using ninth inning guys based on match-ups and whatnot, but the truth is the modern reliever likes to have a set job. Ned Yost likes it, too, and you can bet his deer hunting blind he’s not going to deviate from an automatic phone call to the bullpen. That much should be obvious. My thought is the Royals will move Kelvin Herrera back to the seventh inning, have Soria pitch the eighth and The Wade Davis Experience keeps the ninth.

— We will have to wait for the contract details to determine how this will impact the projected payroll. Earlier today, I had the Royals with 13 players under contract at a total of around $70 million. I’m guessing the Royals will use that mutual option to keep the upfront cash low, while giving him some money at the end of the three years. This is what they did to Jeremy Guthrie. I’m thinking Soria could cost the Royals around $7 million per season with the remainder on the buyout on the option.

A healthy Soria means the Royals again keep the games short for their rotation. Given the state of the rotation going forward, that is a good thing.

Welp, this is what I get for writing a post on Sunday night before the Winter Meetings officially start. Rumblings overnight have the Royals signing Joakim Soria to a three-year deal, valued at $25 million. Which pretty much blows up this entire post. Oh, well. Read anyway and throw his money into the mix.

Nashville is teeming with baseball-type people. Why would they be there? Nashville doesn’t have a team. Ahhhhh… complaints about a cavernous Opryland Hotel can only mean one thing: The Winter Meetings have finally begun.

If you are a baseball fan and a fan of the Hot Stove, this is your week. And if you’re a baseball fan, you probably are dreaming about how Player X will look in your team’s uniform. (Unless you’re a fan of the Diamondbacks. You’ve already signed Zack Greinke and your new uniforms look awful.) The only thing that is stopping your team from signing your player is one thing… Money. It’s always about the money.

With the Royals arriving in Nashville on Sunday night, rumors were circulating the club was very much near a two year agreement to bring back Chris Young. While exciting, not the top priority to be sure. At one point on Sunday, word came out the Royals were talking to Scott Kazmir. Now we’re getting somewhere. Thankfully, there were rumblings the team was still very much in the Alex Gordon Sweepstakes.

This is all well and good, but the larger question looms: How do these players - or anyone for that matter - fit into the 2016 budget? I’m really glad you asked. Because that’s what this post is about.

Let’s start with what we know. The Royals currently have 13 players under contract for next season.

Those players will make a total of $74.475 million.

*Of course the caveat is Jason Vargas will miss most - if not all - of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Word is, they have a $6 million insurance policy that will defray a nice chunk of his 2016 salary. If we remove that money from the players already under contract, we are at $68.475 million.

Next, let’s take a look at the players eligible for arbitration. These players have all been tendered contracts by the club, but they are not signed for the 2016 season, so we don’t know where they fit on the ledger. Player and team will exchange dollar amounts in mid-January, then will have the rest of the winter to come to an agreement. Failing that, they each will present their case to an arbiter, who will rule in favor of either the player or the club. There is no middle ground.

Since we are over a month out from the exchange of figures, that makes it a little more difficult to estimate payroll. Thankfully, we have MLB Trade Rumors to take care of that for us. The Royals have seven players eligible for arbitration. Here is the list, followed by their estimated contract for 2016.

Those estimates total $20.6 million.

If you’re keeping score, that gives the Royals 20 players totaling $89.075 million.

We need to fill out our 25 man roster, so assuming the Royals don’t make a trade, don’t sign anyone in free agency (Chris Young rumors be damned) the Royals will fill those spots with players who are still under club control with fewer than three years in the majors to their credit. Those players generally make the league minimum or close to it, which is just north of $500,000. So we need to add five more players at a total of roughly $2.5 million.

That puts the 25 man roster around $92 million.

The above number is something to keep in mind you navigate the rumors this week. Royals are reportedly budgeting for a payroll around $130 million.

The hottest rumor as of Sunday night has Young coming back to Kansas City on a two year deal at between $10 and $12 million. So let’s put $5 million for Young in the 2016 column as a rough estimate.

For Gordon, I’ve seen speculation for five years at anywhere between $90 and $105 million. Basically, you’re looking at $20 million per year, but nothing is even close to certain at this point, as the outfield market hasn’t even started to take shape. Plus, the Royals have always been rather creative with some of their more notable contracts, so even if they bring Gordon back at five years and $100 million, it probably wouldn’t be as simple as paying him $20 million a year. Still, with myriad options we should probably stick with the straightforward for this exercise and put him down for $20 million next year.

With Young and Gordon, you subtract $1 million (since we are removing two players who would make the minimum) and add $25 million. That puts the payroll roughly at $116 million, which is already more than the opening day payroll for 2015.

That leaves you room for one more free agent addition. Possibly Kazmir. Early industry estimates had him at around three years and $13 to $15 million per season. That would get the Royals right on the mark of that $130 million budget.

If these numbers are accurate and the budgets are correct, that means you can basically forget about Ben Zobrist coming back. The Royals are going to need to add another starting pitcher (and probably a bargain bin reliever or two) and there’s simply no way they can bring back Gordon (their number one choice) and Zobrist while signing a middle of the rotation starter. I suppose Zobrist could be their fall-back, in case they lose out on Gordon, but all indications are the Zobrist market is heating up and he’s looking at four years, which is probably one year too many for the Royals to stomach.

For now though, it’s all speculation. Hot Stove! The next few days will give us a little clarity as we move closer to the opening of camp in Arizona. At least if things go according to plan.