Royals Authority

I think the Pittsburgh Pirates are a very good baseball team….and your Kansas City Royals just took two of three from them. The Royals currently enjoy a 7.5 game lead over Minnesota in the American League Central, have the best record in the AL and the second best record in baseball. My brother-in-law (a Padres fan) asked me the other day what it’s like to root for a team that wins every day. My goodness times have changed.

As good as things look for Kansas City right now, they need to make a move to get even better. This season is not about making the playoffs. It is about winning the World Series and with that goal in mind, the Royals need a little something more.

If you have been reading this site for the last few months or run across a tweet or two from me, you know that I have long been beating the drum to acquire a bat more than a starting pitcher. Even assuming that Alex Gordon comes back by September 1st and is back into Gordonish form by post-season time, the bottom third of the order is an on-base trainwreck of Salvador Perez, Alex Rios and Omar Infante. My mindset has been, and mostly still is, that with the Royals’ marvelous bullpen compensating for ‘here and there’ starting pitching, that getting a bat to beef up the bottom of the order was more important.

I still believe that the Royals are in something of pick one mode when it comes to the trade deadline. They don’t seem to have enough prospect cache to go get both an impact bat AND a premier starter. Now, as quiet as the trade market has so far been, maybe someone will panic and actually have a true fire sale. Then maybe the Royals could do something crazy and end up with a Cueto, a Bruce and still have Raul Mondesi in the farm system. I think that is unlikely, but it could happen.

Anyway, a funny thing happened since I wrote about how truthfully dismal both Alex Rios and Omar Infante were with a bats in their hands. After hitting .188 in June with two extra base hits, Rios has raked to the tune of .339/.388/.468 in July with five doubles, a home run and four steals. Sure, monthly splits are an arbitrary endpoint (but they are easy to access), and you can pick and choose whatever start and stop you want, but the bottom line is Rios has spent basically the last 100 plate appearances being a good major league hitter.

No matter how well he hits, Rios is going to be a guy that will generate some frustration. He will not always display a ton of zest on defense. He will make mistakes on the basepaths. He is, after all the same Alex Rios who has been in the league for ten years. We have to be cautious that baseball history is full of bad players who had good runs for a 100 or so plate appearances.

ZiPS projects Rios to hit .276/.309/.401 for the remainder of the season, which seems reasonable to me. If Alex wanted to hit .340 the rest of the way, I would be delighted, but I think we all know the odds on that. Say what you want about projections, but if ZiPS is close to right, would that be enough to stick with Rios and have the Royals focus their trade energy in a different area?

If you believe that Rios will give the Royals enough and, frankly, if you believe that Paulo Orlando and Jarrod Dyson will continue to hold the line until Alex Gordon comes back, then the decision comes down to a starting pitcher (or two) or upgrading over Omar Infante. The majority of folks probably will say starting pitcher and that may or may not be the right answer. I remain haunted, however, by the thought of Omar Infante getting 60+ post-season plate appearances. The thought is not as scary as it was a few weeks back when Rios was somehow a worse hitter than Infante, but it is still not something to be discounted because the national guys say you have to have a true number one to win playoff series.

What would you do, hotshot? What..would..you..do?

A trip to the east side and the Royals bats fall into another slumber. It felt so promising after the Twins series where the Royals performed the requisite role of favorite and brushed aside the upstarts with ease. Not your time, Minnesota.

The Cardinals, as much as it pains to write, are good. Very good. They are not the Twins. They have been to the top of their division, they have been the favorites and they enjoy the view from the penthouse, thank you very much. My snide May remarks about them being “the second-best team in Missouri” was wishful thinking on my part.

Friday’s game was painful. Five hits. Four of them were of the infield variety. We know the Royals like to ride the singles train, but this was the kiddie version at the mall that goes around in a tight circle at under 5 mph. Pathetic. Hats off to Cardinal starter Jaime Garcia, though. He throws a nasty sinker and has had his struggles with shoulder injuries the last couple of seasons. It’s a minor miracle he’s still in the game. Add to the gross factor was Yordano Ventura exiting the game after he lost feeling in two fingers and the thumb on his pitching hand. Yeah. Friday sucked.

Saturday’s game was painful as well, but for different reasons. With a lefty on the mound for the Cardinals, Ned Yost opted for his NL Special Right-Handed Hitting Lineup with Alex Gordon the only left-handed bat in the game. When your lineup features Christian Colon, Omar Infante, the pitcher and rolls over to Alcides Escobar, you’re going to struggle to score. It’s not a coincidence the Royals only two runs on the day came on solo home runs. This was not a lineup constructed for the big inning.

Which brings me to another point: Yost has to address his lineup. Not in a week, a la Bobby Cox. Today. We are at a critical point in the Royals offensive struggles. It’s not so much about shaking things up. It’s about righting a wrong. Let’s start at leadoff. Escobar has to go. He is hitting .255/.285/.341. Unacceptable for a leadoff hitter. The only team that has gotten worse production out of the top of their order is Oakland. If you go by OPS+, the Royals have actually been the worst team in the AL at the leadoff spot. You simply cannot have October thoughts and have Escobar leading off. I understand he was the guy at the top of the order for September and October. Spare me the arguments for keeping him at leadoff. That was six weeks in a six year career. The Royals got lucky with Escobar at the end of last year. Luck tends to run out.

From Baseball Reference, here is the performance of American League leadoff batters by team, ranked by on base percentage. You’ll find the Royals second from the bottom. They also have the fewest total bases and their slugging percentage is the worst among AL teams. Don’t even get me started about their 10 walks. There is no way you can shine the turd of this table:

While the leadoff spot has been an issue all season, it’s also time for Omar Infante to take a seat on the bench for an extended vacation. The dude has five hits (all singles) in his last 62 at bats. One walk and 14 strikeouts. And Yost still insists he’s the choice at second base. You know my feelings on the situation.

And Alex Rios. Oh. My. God. I haven’t seen outfield play that uninspiring since Kevin McReynolds couldn’t be bothered back in the early ’90s. There is a decided lack of focus out there, which isn’t surprising given Rios’s past. When he’s going good, he’s locked in and a valuable performer. When he’s not… It’s all downhill. It’s a shame he suffered the injury to his hand in Minnesota because it felt like his season was going to be about the former. Now, it’s about the latter. He took longer than expected to recover from his injury (which also wasn’t a surprise to those who have followed his career) and has yet to find his swing since returning. And now it appears he’s carrying the offensive struggles to the field. Lackadaisical and careless. That’s how you describe his defense over the last couple of weeks.

Glaring holes at second base and right field. The more things change…

OK. You’ve read this far and are thinking, “Enough with the bitching. What’s your solution?” Fair. Here’s my suggested lineup:

Gordon
Moustakas
Morales
Hosmer
Cain
Perez
Rios
Escobar
Colon

I’m not entirely pleased with the construction here, but I have my best hitters stacked one through four, so I can’t complain too much. It happens that the Royals best hitters this year are left-handed, so the lineup dispenses with Yost’s favored LRLRLR kind of alternating of bats, but so it goes. Cain has just six extra base hits in his last 30 games, so he needs to drop. I’d like to move him lower, but Perez should never hit in the top half, in my opinion. Rios, as I mentioned above, has lost me, but I don’t see Dyson as an everyday alternative. A spot start, fine. Not six days a week. Although I could be talked into a Dyson/Rios platoon. But you think Rios has checked out now? Wait until he only starts half the games.

Colon is my second baseman, but like the Royals, I’m not happy about it. His defense doesn’t do anything for me and he continues to be overmatched by big league pitching. Neither facet of his game is going to improve.

You know what’s funny about all of this? The Royals are still in first place in the Central. They still have the best record in the AL. That’s great that the Royals are still in the pole position, but smart teams are constantly analyzing their operation and identifying their weaknesses. With the current offensive struggles, you could make the case the Royals are already not moving fast enough to make those critical adjustments. Yost likes to point out he doesn’t do panic. It’s not panicking when you are repositioning your hitters in order to put your team in a better position to win.

Earlier today, it was Alex Gordon and his wrist. Just a few hours later, it has become Alex Rios and his hand. Broken, you know. Out indefinitely.

Lots of speculation with this news, not the least of which was the removal of Terrance Gore from his AA game today. In combination with the speedster already being on the 40 man roster, one would be led to believe that Gore will take Rios’ spot on the 25 man roster. I don’t hate it.

After all, it took six games and an injury to get Jarrod Dyson into live action and, far as we can tell, neither Eric Kratz or Christian Colon really exist. This is not a team or a manager that is going to utilize the bench very much. Quite frankly, if you want strategery, Gore is probably more likely to see action than say a Whit Merrifield or someone of that ilk.

In the regular lineup, it appears that Jarrod Dyson and Paulo Orlando will platoon and likely do so in right field with Lorenzo Cain staying in center. Dyson, I assume because he is small and fast, is perceived as not having a good arm. Truthfully, Dyson’s arm is no worse than average, probably not a lot different than that of Cain. I like the idea of the guy playing everyday (Cain) staying in one spot, where he might be better than Dyson anyway. So, keeping Lorenzo in center and leaving rightfield to Dyson and Orlando makes sense to me and likely leads to better overall defense than the Royals were getting out of Rios. That is, by the way, not a criticism of Rios’ early season defense, but more a compliment for the amount of ground Dyson can cover. It should also be noted that Orlando is considered a superb defender with a very good arm.

The Royals are not blessed with a ton of major league ready depth, but they actually were assembled to, at minimum, get by with an injury to the very player who got hurt. Write this down, because I’m sure it has never been said before, are part of the game. This is as good a time and as tolerable a position to take the hit as the Royals could hope for. It’s not the best situation, but it is far from the worst.

Remain calm, everyone. Don’t panic.

Thumb cramps, pennants, rings and a blowout victory. That about sums up Opening Day, 2015.

The pregame ceremony was pitch perfect. The organization honored nearly everyone associated with the day to day responsibilities of the players which was nice to give them a moment of recognition. We watch these guys play everyday and it’s not often you think about the behind the scenes guys. Another nice touch was bringing players in who were part of September and October and who have been assigned to the minors to open the year.

And of course, old favorite Bruce Chen was back at The K. The Royals last 10-5 guy deserved to walk back onto the field one last time to collect a ring. The one guy I missed at the ceremony: Raul Ibanez. He will get his moment, for sure.

It’s always good to see Royals alumni at the game, but probably my favorite moment of the entire ceremony was when they had a season ticket holder from 1969 raise the American League pennant. Just a brilliant touch to recognize the fans. It’s amazing. After so many years of bumbling around, the Royals are suddenly an organization that gets it. Forgive me if it takes me some time to adjust to this new reality. Either way, it’s really nice.

— Yordano Ventura threw fire - but he didn’t hit triple digits on the radar gun all afternoon - yet he was steady and kept the White Sox off balance all afternoon.

He only whiffed two, but scattered just four hits and a walk. He was around the zone all day, throwing 81 pitches, 56 of them for strikes. The low number of strikeouts isn’t really notable. The Sox swung and missed at 11 of his offerings, so he was missing plenty of bats.

The really scary part was when he hit the ground after delivering a pitch to LaRoche in the top of the seventh. Fortunately, it was diagnosed as a cramp in his thumb. The telltale sign that is could have been a cramp was his delayed reaction to the pain after delivering his pitch. His hand (or thumb) just seized up. A bummer that Ventura left after just 81 pitches. Fortunately, it was just a thumb cramp. I don’t need to tell you, Ventura is absolutely indispensable to this rotation.

According to McCullough, he is ok and will make his next start.

— Not sure what to make of Kendrys Morales and his three walks. This is a guy who has walked 6.8 percent of the time in his career. His plate appearance on Monday were the paragon of patience. He saw 20 pitches in his five PAs.

— This whole Mike Moustakas as a number two hitter seems horribly misguided, but damn if it didn’t work on Monday. Remember how I told you to get Ned Yost to a casino last October. Apparently his hot streak is intact. While I encourage bunting against the shift, I would like to veto the idea of him sacrifice bunting. The moment when he sacrificed in the third inning following an Alcides Escobar double was as predictable as XXXX. I was glad I wasn’t on Twitter because I would have said something negative and then when Escobar scored on the Lorenzo Cain bloop down the right field line, I would have had a ton of, “See, it worked!” responses. I don’t have time for that.

Sac bunt aside, the most impressive moment of Moustakas’s afternoon was his opposite field home run. Entering 2015, exactly two of Moustakas’s 52 home runs have landed to the left side of center field. And those two weren’t exactly opposite field shots. They were just a few feet to the left of center. From Hit Tracker, here are his home run landing points from the last two seasons. 2013 is on the left.

For Moustakas to go that far to left is huge. And something we have never seen. (Bruce Chen called it on the broadcast. I’m not looking to dump Uncle Hud, so maybe a three man booth in the future.)

If you are a regular reader of this blog, you know I’m highly skeptical about this latest transformation of the Royals third baseman. We’ve been down this path before. But damn if he doesn’t have me scratching my head. Maybe, just maybe, he has become a different hitter trying to take the ball to all fields. Maybe, just maybe, he’s becoming some kind of better hitter because he’s staying within and going the opposite way instead of trying to yank everything. I don’t know. I need more evidence than one game. But that’s a much more promising start than doing it in Arizona.

— A very bad look from Smardzija to hit Cain on the next pitch after the Moose Oppo Taco. A very bad look.

— The Royals defense looks ready. I mean, is there really anything else to say? Poor Alexi Ramirez hit the ball on the screws a couple of times and had nothing to show for his efforts. And the double play in the fifth was a thing of beauty.

— My player profile on Alex Rios described him as an enigma with an injured thumb. Basically, we don’t know what we are going to get. A 3-4 day with a pair of singles and a home run to go along with a steal is a pretty good start. As those guys who pay attention to day one stats will tell you, Rios has already matched a quarter of his home run production from 2014.

The new guys got the job done.

— Quality starting pitching, a lockdown bullpen, a couple of steals, stellar defense and a sacrifice bunt. Royals baseball is back.

Alex Rios has a thumb injury.

<Insert “thumbs down” emoji here.>

This is a problem. An issue. The Royals, you see, signed Rios to a one-year deal to replace Nori Aoki in right field and to provide some “pop” to a lineup that is very much without “pop.” The signing represented a gamble of sorts for the Royals since Rios slugged .398 last summer and finished with a .118 ISO, his lowest Isolated Power mark since his rookie campaign in 2004. The culprit behind this poor production… The thumb.

This is pretty good, so follow along: The theory is, after Rios suffered a slight right ankle sprain immediately following the All-Star Break, he changed the mechanics of his swing. Because he couldn’t rotate his back foot properly, he allowed pitches to get too far inside on his hands, which caused a thumb contusion. (Hey, don’t kill the messenger. That’s not my theory. It belongs to Rios.) With the entire Ranger team seemingly on the DL last year, Rios played through the pain. The Rangers loved the example he set for young players. The back of his baseball card carries the scar of trying to play through that pain.

Rios in the first half of 2014:
.305/.333/.405 with 4 HR and a 109 wRC+.

Rios in the second half of 2014:
.246/.281/.281 with 0 HR and a 41 wRC+.

The first half was nice enough, but was nowhere near strong enough to withstand the horrid second half Rios put up with his bum thumb.

And now, from McCullough, comes this:

Alex Rios does not expect the occasional discomfort in his right thumb to disappear for good. He played with this condition for the second half of 2014. He has grown used to the pain he experiences on mis-hit balls and ill-timed swings. He described protecting his thumb as a “matter of management from now on” as he begins his first season as a Royal.

Eleven million dollars.

That is a manly bet.

Dayton Moore has made just that on Alex Rios. Thirty-four year old Alex Rios. Enigmatic, sometimes disinterested, Alex Rios. I play a lot of craps. I’ve got nothing on Dayton Moore when it comes to gambling.

There was a time when Alex Rios was being compared to the likes of Carlos Beltran. From 2006 through 2008, Rios was a force, by both traditional and advanced measurements. Rios was worth somewhere between 13 and 16 WAR in those three years (fWAR liked him better than bWAR, but they both liked him plenty). He slugged, he ran, he got on base and he played defense. Alex Rios could play the game and he’s made $75 million doing it.

Along the way, however, things have changed. Maybe you can still compare him to Beltran, but only to the current Carlos whose body has let him down. Since being a legitimate All-Star, Rios has twice posted on-base percentages below .300. His defense has gone from an asset to a negative seemingly overnight…and stayed there for the past four seasons. Rios’ walk rate is almost half what it was during his days as a budding star. Alex still runs and runs well, when he feels like it, but he also hit four (4) home runs last season….in Texas.

Now thirty-four, it is getting harder to distinguish between whether the lack of production is a result of Rios’ disinterest and the simple fact that he just might be getting old or that a thumb injury is to blame. The Royals are betting that Alex Rios on a one year deal (with an option of course) will be motivated, rejuvenated, focused…all that, maybe even some grit. It might be a bad gamble or it might be a Melky Cabrera resurgence.

As many of you know, Baseball Reference has a Similarity Score which is mostly just fun. I took some heat for noting that their formula compared Eric Hosmer to Keith Hernandez at the same age, so we’ll proceed with caution. Now, if Hosmer is an MVP winner this season, like Hernandez was at the same point in their careers then Baseball Reference will laugh at you and your little dog.

I bring this up because Alex Rios has a fun list on his Similarity Score, starting with the top name: Amos Otis. After Amos, comes Claudell Washington, Andy Van Slyke, Chet Lemon, Marquis Grissom, Gary Maddox and Dusty Baker. That’s a good list and testament to what Rios has done, however sporadically and how far in the past it may have been.

Otis was solid in his age 34 season (it was strike shortened) and average at age 35, but done after that. Washington was not good at age 34 and done after that. Van Slyke put up good numbers at age 34, but didn’t play after that. Chet Lemon had a poor age 34 season, but a decent age 35 campaign (albeit minus all power), but was then done. Grissom had an awful age 34 season, but then posted two of his best three power years at age 35 and 36 (although his on-base percentage was in decline). Gary Maddox had not been an above average offensive performer since he was 29 and did nothing from 34 on to change that. Dusty Baker, an All-Star at 33, was a part-time player by age 35.

As good as the list under Alex Rios’ Similarity Score may be, the guys on it were in decline or basically done when they were the same age as Rios will be in 2015. Like I began, it’s a helluva a gamble.