Royals Authority

Some random stuff that needs to be discussed before the Royals return to the ALCS this evening…

— The Orioles announced right-hander Chris Tillman as Game One starter. Tillman led the O’s in innings and his 3.34 ERA was second on the staff. His 2.4 fWAR was similarly the second-best mark.

Tillman’s .267 BABIP was the 12th lowest mark among AL starters. You may think the BABIP gods were smiling on Tillman, but that mark is in line with his performance over the past three seasons. His GB/FB ratio is close to 1 so everyone gets in the action when he’s on the mound. That’s a good thing for Tillman, as the Baltimore defense has been among the best in baseball again this year.

Tillman works fastball, curve and change. His fastball averages in the low 90s but has late action that creeps up on the hitters. The Royals can go up looking first pitch fastball, but if they fall behind in the count, they’ll have to be on guard for the curve. If Tillman is even or ahead in the count, he’ll throw the curve nearly 25 percent of the time. It’s a pitch that has a sharp 12-6 break and it’s one that generates plenty of ground balls. Tillman approaches hitters from both sides of the plate largely the same, but will mix in a cut fastball to right-handed batters on occasion.

— One of the more intriguing story lines is how Mike Moustakas is approaching his plate appearances. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but here’s his spray chart in four postseason games:

Two bombs to right, another deep fly out and a bunch of balls put in play to the left. I’m not going to go so far as to claim he’s “fixed” because after nearly 2,000 major league plate appearances and a slash line of .236/.290/.379, I continue to question his ability to be an everyday contributor. He’s picked the right time to finally focus on working the count, making solid contact and going with the pitch on the outer half of the plate.

— Ned Yost announced his starting lineup. Be shocked:

Alcides Escobar
Nori Aoki
Lorenzo Cain
Eric Hosmer
Billy Butler
Alex Gordon
Sal Perez
Omar Infante
Mike Moustakas

The last time the Royals started with anything different was September 20th.

— There’s been a more than a little talk surrounding Game One starter James Shields and his upcoming foray into free agency. Rumblings on the Unnamed Executive Street have his next contract around five years and upwards of $80 million. That’s a hefty price to pay for a starting pitcher who will be 33 next season. There will be more time to discuss after the postseason, but I would imagine the Royals will make a cursory run at Shields, but he’s still moving to another team. Perhaps he would be so good as to give the Royals an opportunity to match an offer, but with the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, and Angels expected to be in the running for his services, I can’t imagine the Royals will pony up the cash.

We’ve seen the business model the Royals will be continuing to use - trading of prospects for pitching help under contract. One of my major gripes on the Shields-Myers trade was that was the sort of deal you make when you’re a player or two away from contention. At the time of the trade, it felt like the Royals were much further away that Shields and Wade Davis. Now the nucleus of this postseason team is still under team control for another couple of seasons, I wouldn’t be surprised if Moore walked the same path this winter and sent some prospects in exchange for a frontline player or two.

Either way, it’s early days for speculation. There’s still baseball to be played.

— Apparently, Omar Infante has been battling shoulder soreness. Oh, really? Didn’t we hear this in March? And in April? And at some point in May? You get the picture. He’s been broken for most of the season and the numbers back that up. The black hole his bat is in the lineup becomes a little less noticeable when Moustakas is hitting behind him.

— One of my favorite subplots of this ALCS will be the defense. According to The Fielding Bible, the Orioles have the best defense in the AL at 49 runs saved. The Royals are second at 40 runs saved. The Orioles value is spread fairly evenly through the field. The Royals value comes from a loaded outfield. Baseball Prospectus’ Defensive Efficiency - the measure of turning balls put into play into outs - has Baltimore third and the Royals sixth.

— My prediction: Royals in six.

Just judging by Chris Tillman’s numbers, I suspect he has something in common with Royals pitchers like Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie: average stuff, slightly below average peripherals, but an elite defense behind him giving him good results. Everything about the righty’s pitch mix and velocities say “normal MLB pitcher” to me (data from 2013-14 combined): a 91 MPH four-seamer used 63% of the time, 76 MPH curve for 17% of his pitches, and an 83 MPH change 14% of the time. There seems to be little special about his fastball—it is actually straighter than most—but he has somehow turned it into a weapon over the last two seasons. He may have just figured out how to spot it. He was getting hitters out with the fastball up and above the zone in game one of the ALDS vs. Detroit:

He lasted five innings and yielded two runs on two solo dongs (both off his fastball) in that game. His average fastball speed jumped all the way to 94, perhaps fueled by adrenaline and a hyped home crowd. Tillman hasn’t pitched for eight days, so I’ll be curious to see his fastball speeds tonight with a fresh arm and another big game atmosphere.

Tillman’s curve has excellent 12-6 bite, and is a good ground-ball inducer, but it and the change have gotten Tillman below average results over the last two years, perhaps being used more to set up the fastball.

I’ve identified a handful of other righties that feature a similar pitch mix and velocities to Tillman. 12 pitchers that Royals hitters have faced roughly match Tillman by throwing an 89-94 MPH fastball 55%-72% of the time, a 77-81 MPH curveball 7%-25% of the time, and a 82-86 MPH change-up 4%-24% of the time over the last two years combined.* Of course not all these pitchers are equals, no doubt featuring differing qualities of movement and command. But I compiled the KC starting nine’s results against those 12 plus Tillman, and I like what I see (sorted by OPS):

Wow. I like seeing Alex and Billy at the top, the worst hitter by OPS slugging .421, and a team-wide OPS of .771. Tillman is probably a little tougher than the overall group, but I’m cautiously optimistic about the match-up. And I do mean cautious—as Royals fans know, the KC offense is capable of falling off the face of the earth and making any pitcher look like Walter Johnson for a night. That side of the offense actually showed up on May 16 this year at Kauffman Stadium against…Chris Tillman. Tillman hurled his first and, so far, only career shutout. Aoki led off the Royals half of the first inning with a double, and that was about it for offense the rest of the night:

So who knows. Anything can happen in one game. But if the Royals bats haven’t gone to sleep during this long downtime between series, I’m hopeful they can jump on Tillman for a few runs early.

Shoutout to the amazing Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, and BrooksBaseball.net for aiding this article.

*My 12 Tillman comps are: Shelby Miller, Jarred Cosart, Charlie Morton, Paul Clemens, Randall Delgado, Anthony Varvaro, Samuel Deduno, Ian Kennedy, Michael Wacha, Scott Carroll, Kris Medlen, Edinson Volquez.

Part of the allure of baseball is it’s connection to the past. Old-timers are celebrated. Championship teams are revered. Everyone loves a winner. In baseball, they’re never forgotten.

That’s a good thing.

The Royals, it seems, have been stuck in this time warp. It’s both literal and figurative. This team doesn’t hit home runs! Just like baseball in 1985. They steal loads of bases. Just like in 1985. The pitching dominates and compensates for a wet noodle offense. Yes, it’s 1985 all over again. OMG, they’re in the playoffs! IT’S 1985 ALL OVER AGAIN!!!

The connections are so obvious, the drought so long, it’s not surprising we see these “Party like it’s 1985″ shirts all over the place.

What this postseason has done for me is underscore how tired I am of 1985. Honestly, I never thought I’d write that. As a 14 year old when the Royals won the World Series, that team was integral to my baseball consciousness. But the Wild Card game and the ALDS has awakened something in me. I’ll never forget 1985. But we’re ready for new memories. We’re ready for new heroes.

The Royals have played four games this postseason. All four of those games have been incredibly memorable. It’s as if they’re making up for lost time, paying back our devotion with heart-stopping, improbable victories. Four games of magic:

Twice being three outs from elimination and both times getting up off the mat.

Sal Perez lining a pitch out of the strike zone just inside the third base bag for the winning Wild Card hit.

Eric Hosmer hitting home runs and landing on the cover of Sports Illustrated.

Billy Butler stealing a base and paying tribute to Jarrod Dyson while standing on second.

Greg Holland rushing through the SoCal traffic to arrive at the stadium in time to close the door in Game One.

Yordano Ventura throwing 102 mph gas.

Alex Gordon clearing the bases with a double.

Mike Moustakas crushing a home run that landed one row in front of me in Game Three.

Amazing. So many signature moments. And just like that, the twentysomethings finally have their postseason memories. Never again will they have to hear about George Brett’s home run silencing Yankee Stadium in 1980 and wonder if they’ll ever experience something similar. We have Mike Moustakas going yard in Anaheim. This isn’t to say the heroes of 2014 are going to knock the 1985 team off the shelf or replace them in some way. They’re going to share the real estate. Finally. Finally we have a group of players that have accomplished something meaningful. It’s been so damn long. How great will it be 25 years from now when Darryl Motley and Eric Hosmer are back at The K for an Old Timers Day? They played in different eras, but they share a connection as Royals who won pivotal postseason games with one swing of the bat. And it’s about time we as a fan base have a shared experience like this. There’s no more divide between the old fans and the younger ones. That gap disappeared when Sal Perez smashed a ball down the right field line sending The K into raptures not seen for almost three decades.

The 2014 October Royals have made their mark. They have become America’s baseball team. Don’t believe me? According to USA Today, the Royals have sold the most merchandise of any team in baseball this month. The same report has Eric Hosmer as the third most popular player, behind Derek Jeter and some St. Louis Cardinal. Fine. Small sample size and all that, but this is an October when everything has been turned inside out and upside down. Expect the unexpected and you won’t be disappointed.

After 29 years we are finally moving on from 1985. That team will never leave our memory. But it’s about time they have some company.