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Aaron Stilley - Royals Authority

Royals Authority

Long Live The Process

Browsing Posts published by Aaron Stilley

I recently took a look at the biggest plays of the Royals 2015 postseason through the lens of championship probability added (CPA). (The simplest way to explain CPA is the win probability added of each play multiplied the game’s championship leverage. For a more in-depth description, look at #9 in this post by Dave Studeman.) Here now is a look at the biggest swings in CPA out of the 5,582 plate appearances in all 74 Royals postseason games in team history (regardless of whether the play hurt or helped their chances):

10. 1980 World Series Game Five, ahead 3-2
top of the 9th, no outs, runner on first
Del Unser facing Dan Quisenberry

championship probability added: -15%

With the series tied at two games apiece, the Royals were in good shape in Game Five heading into the ninth with a 3-2 lead. Dan Quisenberry had already recorded five outs in the game before Mike Schmidt led off the ninth with a rocket ground ball to third base that George Brett barely got a glove on, but the ball ricocheted away and Schmidt was on first with a single. Del Unser followed with the above play to tie the score. Manny Trillo drove Unser home later in the same frame (-12% CPA, the 15th biggest CPA play in team history). The Royals never held a lead in the Series again.

9. 2015 World Series Game One, down 3-4
bottom of the 9th, one out, nobody on
Alex Gordon facing Jeurys Familia

championship probability added: 15%

Think of some of the Royals greats who never got to experience the playoffs with Kansas City: Kevin Appier, Zack Greinke, Carlos Beltran, Jeff Montgomery, Mike Sweeney. It looked for a long time like Alex would be added to that list. 2014 took care of that, and then 2015 really took care of it, highlighted by this signature moment.

8. 2014 World Series Game Seven, behind 2-3
bottom of the 9th, two outs, runner on third
Salvador Perez facing Madison Bumgarner

I don’t really want to find a video of this one.

championship probability added: -16%

Among the top 17 CPA plays in team history, this is the only one in which a run did not score.

7. 1976 ALCS game five, down 3-6
top of the 8th, no outs, runners on first and second
George Brett facing Grant Jackson

championship probability added: 17%

This is before my time, so I can only imagine the bliss of this home run at the time, followed by the pain of number four on this list.

6. 1985 World Series Game Seven, tied 0-0
bottom of the 2nd, one out, runner on first
Darryl Motley facing John Tudor

championship probability added: 18%

And the rout was on.

5. 1977 ALCS game five, ahead 3-2
top of the 9th, no outs, runners on first and second
Mickey Rivers facing Larry Gura

championship probability added: -19%

Dick Howser coaching third for the Yankees. The old-timers aren’t kidding when they talk about how heartbreaking the ’76, ’77, and ’78 ALCS losses were.
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Turns out it is really fun when your team wins the World Series. To help us keep basking in the afterglow (not that I’m worried about it wearing off anytime soon), here is a look at the most impactful moments of the Royals 2015 postseason through the lens of championship probability added (CPA). I’m piggybacking on some great work from Sky Andrecheck and Dave Studeman (and this recent post by Rany Jazayerli). The idea of CPA is to take the in-game win probability added (WPA) of every play and multiply it by the game’s impact on the team’s chances of winning the championship. I used Studeman’s chart (see link above) of the various championship leverages of every potential playoff game (ranging from a .094 championship leverage in the first two games of the division series to a full 1.0 for a World Series Game Seven). So if a play has a 10% WPA in-game during ALDS game one, it is worth .94% championship probability added (10% x .094), but if that same 10% WPA happens in a World Series Game Seven, it is worth the full 10% CPA since the champ is definitely being decided in that game.

With a shout out to the Baseball Reference play index, first up are the five plays that most hurt the Royals chances for a championship this postseason:

5. ALDS game five, tied 0-0
top of the 2nd, two outs, runner on first
Luis Valbuena facing Johnny Cueto


championship probability added: -5%

The only blemish on what became one of the great playoffs starts in Royals history.

4. World Series Game One, tied 4-4
bottom of the 12th, two outs, bases loaded
Jarrod Dyson facing Bartolo Colon


championship probability added: -5%

A missed opportunity, but the tie game remained up for grabs.

3. World Series Game Three, ahead 3-2
bottom of the 3rd, no outs, runner on first
Curtis Granderson facing Yordano Ventura


championship probability added: -5%

No silver lining or comeback after this play. But the game proved to be just a minor speed bump on the way to the title.

2. ALCS game six, ahead 3-1
top of the 8th, one out, runner on first
Jose Bautista facing Ryan Madson


championship probability added: -8%

This one felt bad. But of course the Royals just came right back to take the lead for good in the bottom of the same inning (on a play we’ll see in the next list).

1. World Series Game One, tied 3-3
top of the 8th, two outs, runner on second
Wilmer Flores facing Kelvin Herrera


championship probability added: -8%

This one also felt bad, until Alex Gordon washed it away with the biggest play of the postseason in the bottom of the 9th. (Spoiler alert?)

Some decent gut punches at the time of the above plays, but, amazingly, the Royals won four of the games that those five plays took place in. No team has been able to get back up and keep fighting after taking would-be knock out blows like the 2015 Royals.

On to the good stuff. The 10 plays that had the biggest positive impact on the Royals chances of winning the championship:

10. World Series Game One, down 2-3
bottom of the sixth, two outs, runner on second
Mike Moustakas facing Matt Harvey

championship probability added: 5%

Re-tied the score in one of many roller-coaster Game One moments.

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Maybe it’s because I downloaded the Timehop app, but I’ve been having a lot of “one year ago this day” moments recently. On September 11, it was one year since my wife Laura was diagnosed with a benign brain tumor. Then on September 30, one year since her surgery and the wild card game. And of course the whole 2015 Royals playoff run has been a distinct reminder of the 2014 playoff magic. Between last year’s ALCS and World Series, I wrote about the strange brew of my wife’s major health scare and the euphoria in Royals-land I’d been experiencing. I wrote that piece when a surprising turn of events had me getting ready to go to Kauffman for Game One of the World Series. It was all thanks to my wife’s recovery going smoothly and the generosity of my parents and hers. Friends, family, e-migos, and readers of this site responded so warmly to that post, and another wave of love and support, rushing in regularly since Laura’s diagnosis, crested.

The evening and night before the game, I made the solo, seven-hour drive from my Minneapolis-area house to my hometown of KC exhausted, grateful, and full of anticipation. I got to my parents house late, and by the time I was up the next day, family and friends were at work. It was a little strange to be alone but I welcomed a day to immerse myself in the city I’d grown so attached to and have a hard time being away from. I headed first to The Bunker in Westport in hopes of getting a Charlie Hustle KC heart t-shirt for Laura. A tornado of blue t-shirt-starved citizens had long beaten me to the punch. From there I strolled down Broadway for a bit. I of course had on Royals apparel, and a fellow pedestrian struck up a conversation. “Tonight’s the night!” he said. Turned out he would be in attendance too thanks to his daughter winning two tickets and a limousine ride to the game through a radio station. Neither one of us could believe our luck.

Next I meandered through the Nelson sculpture garden before getting a cup of the best coffee I know of at The Roasterie in Brookside. Then a long walk up the Trolley Trail, a familiar jogging path in my previous life. All day I’d felt the electric Royals buzz that I’d been sensing 500 miles away in Minnesota for a while. An unfamiliar nervous excitement built up as game time was getting closer. I felt nerves as if I was going to be playing in the game.

I grabbed our dinner at LC’s and met my brother and dad to carpool to the park. Barbecue and Boulevard taste pretty sweet in the Kauffman lot before a World Series game. We found our upper deck seats behind the plate and soaked it all in. The Royals in the World Series! I couldn’t wait to be a small part of the crowd roar that had been overwhelming my TV speakers all month.

But the game went off script. The Giants immediately scored three runs, and the crowd never got to take off. We tried to force it when Sal homered in the seventh, but it was too little, too late. The team that had waited for me to leave town before getting good broke their eight game playoff victory streak when I came back.

I wonder where I picked up my nervous habit of putting my hand to my chin.

I tweeted after the game, “A bad World Series game in KC is still a World Series game in KC. Great night.” And I meant it. But after I sped back home the next morning, I spent a lot of time trying, and only half succeeding, to convince myself that the important thing was that I’d gotten to a game and that it was beside the point that the game itself had been a dud. I hung on every pitch of Games Two through Six from my couch.

On the morning of Game Seven, I couldn’t stand it. I tried hard to convince myself that it was OK not to be there, or that it was too late anyway. It didn’t work. I scoured Stub Hub for tickets, and, around 9:30, decided with Laura that I could splurge on a ticket if I could find one for $500 or less. Refresh, refresh, refresh, refresh, refresh…10:30…two tickets, $499 a piece! I called my dad as fast as I could and he was in. The printer is out of ink! I don’t have time to go buy ink! Maybe I can download them to my phone…yup, that works. Um, clothes, toothbrush, goodbye, I love you! On the road at 11:15. What is going on! I am not a spontaneous person! Are we going to make it by first pitch? Eat in the car, no water allowed, drive, drive, drive, this is really happening! Made great time. Don’t think I sped that much? In our seats, second to last row in the upper deck, in plenty of time. Did I really just do that?

I really did.

I had the same nerves as if I was playing, along with a new giddiness. I could not be still, knees and toes bouncing non-stop. The atmosphere was insane. The whole stadium stood for most of the game and held its collective breath on every pitch. I’m pretty sure the stadium lifted off and reached orbit after the Royals tied the score in the bottom of the second. The tension was sweetly agonizing all night. After Alex reached in the 9th, I realized I’d been jumping up and down during his entire run to third. (Alex continuing to home on the play didn’t even cross my mind, but my dad immediately said they should have sent him since Bumgarner seemed invincible.) Too much magic had brought the Royals to that point for it to end with Alex at third. What was one more slice of magic after the month they were having?

But Sal popped up. The roar silenced immediately and my hands covered my blue hat. After a few beats of disbelief, I heard a faint “let’s go Royals” chant start up. Perfect. I joined right in. Of course I was disappointed, but I wasn’t crushed. I didn’t have to try to convince myself that this had been a great night. I got to experience a level of energy, fun, and passion around baseball in Kansas City that, for me, had up to that point only existed in historical accounts.

And now, one year later, we get to do it again.

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    • After 47 Royals seasons, there have been 47 player-seasons in which a Royals hitter attained a 120 or better OPS+ and qualified for the batting title. Zero players pulled it off in 2013 and 2014, but four KC batsmen broke out this year: Cain (126), Hosmer (122), Morales (128), and Moustakas (120). 1972 and 1989 are the only other seasons with four qualified KC batsmen performing so well. If Alex Gordon had been able to get about 80 more PAs to qualify, there might have been a new team record of five. Click here for a year-by-year breakdown of the 120+ club.

 

    • Jarrod Dyson played in his sixth season for the Royals, and has had positive wins above average (WAA) every year. The only other Royals to put together six or more consecutive seasons with WAA in the black are in the team Hall of Fame: Kevin Appier, Willie Wilson, Amos Otis, George Brett, Dan Quisenberry, and Jeff Montgomery. In Dyson’s first two seasons, he only played 18 and 26 games, so those hardly count, but the larger point is that Dyson has been quietly, consistently brilliant in a part-time role. It could be that he is under-utilized by Ned Yost, but it is also possible the KC brain-trust is correctly guessing that he is most valuable as a part-timer. He is certainly good enough to be an every-day outfielder for plenty of teams, but has found himself part of deep outfields in KC. Oddly, his incredible speed might be leading to more bench time, assuming Yost likes to have the option to use him as a pinch runner at crucial times. He’s been a hell of a player flying under the radar for quite some time though.

 

    • Baseball-Reference.com says Omar Infante hit seven triples to lead the team this year. Is that possible? I figured his combination of seven triples and a 49 OPS+ had to be pretty rare, and I was correct. It is the fourth lowest OPS+ in a season with at least seven triples ever, and the lowest since 1930. The 49 OPS+ is also the third worst season in Royals history by a batter with at least 400 PAs (after Neifi Perez (44) and Jose Lind (47)).

 

    • The Royals were 27-for-29 when attempting to steal third base.

 

    • Lorenzo Cain became the seventh Royals position player to post 7+ rWAR in a season, following George Brett, Willie Wilson, Darrell Porter, Amos Otis, Alex Gordon, and John Mayberry.

 

    • Eric Hosmer and Alcides Escobar became the 22nd and 23rd Royals players to amass 1,000+ total bases with KC.

 

    • Alex became the 11th Royal with 500+ RBI. Alex also joined Frank White as the only two players to strike out at least 1,000 times with KC.

 

    • Hosmer became the 19th Royal to reach base 1,000 or more times.

 

    • Greg Holland became the seventh hurler to appear in 300 games.

 

    • The pitching staff threw 23,629 pitches. 56% of those pitches were fastballs, thrown at an average of 93 MPH, the third fastest in the AL. 12% of the pitches were curve balls, which was the second highest rate of benders thrown in the AL.

 

    • Dyson, Escobar, and Cain continue to be fantastic base stealers. Not necessarily that they steal a ton of bases, but, more importantly, their rates of successes to attempts is elite. Along with Carlos Beltran and Willie Wilson, they make up the top five success rates in team history (minimum 80 attempts). All hail Rusty Kuntz.

 

    • Only Jose Altuve put more balls in play than Alcides Escobar. 553 of Escobar’s 662 plate appearances ended with a ball in play. The team put 119 more balls in play than any other squad. They were the only team to not strike out 1,000 times.

 

    • The team spent more time in first place than any previous Royals season, and were never more than a game out of first. They were the first Royals squad to never drop below .500 at any point in the season. Their longest losing streak was just four games, tying the team record (for a full season) achieved in 1977 and 2003.

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