What do we have to look forward to & EXPECT?
good player & Character?

Look, as much as it kills me to say so, Prince isn’t going to be a Brewer next year. the plan is to switch Mat Gamel from 3rd to 1st. It would be wise to have someone else as a backup plan. Otherwise Reonicke will think keeping Mark Kotsay is a good idea.

Like most people, I look for the ‘perfect stat’ that sums up offense and OBP equates a walk and a homer while SLG ignores walks and steals, so I just tried to adjust SLG, the better of the two stats for predicting impact on a game, by adding two other ways of self-creating bases. If you like aSLG, feel free to use it, with a little attribution for my vanity’s sake:)

As for Billy and power, he has it. He’s a big, strong kid with a fast bat, but he has a swing more tailored for Chris Getz or Jarrod Dyson, flat to down angle. When Billy hits a fly he missed the pitch, when he hits a grounder he crushes it. This is the inverse of last year’s Gordon with his pronounced uppercut. Gordon and Seitzer modified the swing to what I consider to be the perfect angle, about 7* up, which matches the grade of the incoming pitch. When the ball is hit squarely you get a screaming line-drive, when the batter gets a little under you get a hard-hit fly that goes out 10% of the time, hit a little over and it’s a hard one-hopper. Ned Yost suggested a change of approach for Billy awhile back when he said that he’ld rather Billy become a .270/25/100 man and all that requires is a change of swing and approach. With more effective power that won’t even hurt his walks and OBP.

As for Billy’s doubles, what I notice is the percentage of them that are ground balls down the 3rd base line. I also notice that a lot of them would be triples if hit by Gordon or Frenchy:)

In the end, I’m not sure what Betemit nets in a trade even if the Royals played him everyday and he hit – more than now, sure, but probably nothing dramatic.

Jim – Your stat is intriguing. Certainly Billy is not ever going to be run scoring machine due to his lack of speed, but I think he will be a run producer going forward as I think this power dearth is temporary at least when it comes to hitting doubles.

To answer your question: I think any team that was trying to compete this year would prefer WB over Moustakas. Moose isn’t even an average 3B right now. He is well below. So effectively what was done was

1) reduced the effectiveness of the team
2) to bring up a kid
3) who hasn’t really contributed
4) killing the trade value of an actual contributor
5) who could’ve been had for cheap

We took a commodity, albeit not a huge one, and turned it into less than its worth, without gaining anything. We had a position filled with a solid, relatively young player. What good teams do is offer that player a reasonable salary (7M over 3 years, club option for 4th at 3M) instead of watching his value dwindle and then getting nothing out of it.

Should we trade him today? Absolutely. Did we go about it right? Absolutely not.

Aviles could also spell Moose against tough lefties (Betemit has terrible splits here), as well as spell the new gritty poster boy, Chris Getz. This isn’t rocket science. Aviles has problems defensively, so he is not a long-term answer (except maybe utility). But is watching this team flounder like a fish out of water the answer? Moose, Esky, and Getz need help.

He didn’t score much batting 3rd or 4th, either, ahead of Gordon and Frenchy. It takes three more created bases to get Billy home from 1st.

“Jim – Not exactly sure where you are going with your runs scored tallly, but Butler has not had Gordon or Cabrera hitting behind him much all year.”

Just find it interesting that Billy had 74 by the night before last, Melky 110, Gordon 101, Frenchy 98, and Hos up to 63 in a short season. For comparison, Jose Bautista has 139 and Prince Fielder 127.

“The better question might be how many runs would players with decent OBP have scored with Gordon & Cabrera hitting behind them as opposed to Getz and Escobar?”

Team tried Billy hitting 3rd and discovered that his walks fell with Gordon following. OBP isn’t an independent statistic, as it is heavily influenced by the next batter. Yeah, Esky and Getz don’t drive Billy in much, which is why a team pitches around Billy, same reason that Treanor walks 15% of the time. One of Butler’s disadvantages is he doesn’t hit homers. Frenchy’s extra 7 homers account for 14 more runs scored and batted in than Billy. Frenchy’s higher SLG pushes base runners farther than Billy’s. Frenchy’s net 13 or so stolen bases puts him on second where he is easier to drive in than on first.

Since you’re a stat guy, I modified SLG to add walks and net stolen bases to TB, as both are self-created bases, then divide by PA, and came up with “aSLG”, which has Frenchy at .512, Gordon .509, Butler .508, and Melky at .504, Hosmer .483. By comparison, Bautista is .918 and Fielder .651. I think this is my new, favorite single offensive number. As the four Royals are all very close and spread through the line-up, that suggest that Billy’s low RSD (runs scored and driven in) may be primarily a function of his lack of speed and power. What do you think?

Jim – Not exactly sure where you are going with your runs scored tallly, but Butler has not had Gordon or Cabrera hitting behind him much all year. The better question might be how many runs would players with decent OBP have scored with Gordon & Cabrera hitting behind them as opposed to Getz and Escobar?
Ben – I have to be honest, I do not get your angst of trading Betemit. I’m trying to, but I just don’t. Moustakas is going to get every opportunity to be the club’s everyday third baseman now and in the future and I’m not sure, so moving Betemit is simply trying to parlay an asset you are not using and will lose at the end of the season anyway. Do you think there are other organizations in baseball that would take Betemit over Moustakas?