Think Mike Sweeney. Degenerative discs don’t get better and Oswalt’s fWAR production mainly came from before he injured his back doing clean up work after a hurricane. And Paulino is dirt cheap and is part of the future, Oswalt looks more like a Jose Guillen “hope” project. I think the fact that Oswalt is still available tells us what we need to know. But we’ll see.

I think Duffy in the rotation from Day 1 is fine too – if he’s better than one of the other guys. If he (or Monty) really can’t beat any of the other 5 out, 1 more yr in the AAA certainly won’t hurt them.

And if Duffy and Monty can’t beat out the other guys legitimately then you’re sacrificing a year of contention, and the Royals should be beyond that given their other constraints. They have the offense to be competetive. They have the Bullpen to be competetive. They have the fielding to be competetive. They need the pitching.

$10M on an already suppressed payroll isn’t going to derail this team longterm and makes them more competetive. And hell if Oswalt craps out – cut him/trade him/DL him and bring up the other guys.

He rang up 2.6 fWAR on 20 starts last year, better than Oswalt’s NL 2.5, which puts him on fangraphs’ second page, a #2 starter. Extrapolated to 30 starts, that’s 3.9 fWAR, front page and about the same number as Edwin Jackson totaled.

“Actually based on my extrapolations of everything went right our rotation would be much better than average – like 4 #2′s and a #3 better.”

Not out of the realm of possibility.

“Bottom line – Oswalt doesn’t hamstring you long term, so of he’s on your team, is he a top 5 starter or not? If the answer is yes, then there is little downside to signing him.”

Oswalt is old and hurt, back injuries can rob a pitcher of production real quick. That is why Oswalt is available, nobody is willing to take a flyer. I’m starting to think he may get a minor-league contract, like Jeff Francis. I prefer Duffy in the rotation from day 1.

Hoch has shown flashes before (84 pitch complete game) but never puts it together for a full year. If he could, I’ll give you him as a #2.

Sanchez is the only pitcher we’ve got who has any history of pitching like an ace, and his track record is obviously spotty.

I love having Chen on the team and don’t hate the fact he’s signed for 2 yrs, but he is what he is and that’s a number 4. I mean, of you consider Paulino a 2 based on his peripherals then Chen is 4 based on his.

Duffy and Monty both have potential to be top of rotation guys, and if Duffy starts bearing down on hitters he could be a borderline 2 this year. I have to believe that Monty would top out as a 3 this year just because of the learning curve in the bigs.

So if EVERYTHING goes right with the guys we have we’ve got:

Sanchez
Paulino
Duffy/Hoch
Chen/Monty

Which is okay. Maybe average.

But drop Oswalt in there – a hard 2 – and kick your worst pitcher out the gate (whoever that is).

Bottom line – Oswalt doesn’t hamstring you long term, so of he’s on your team, is he a top 5 starter or not? If the answer is yes, then there is little downside to signing him.

I do. But I think Gordon will also have a good year. Just optimistic, I guess.

“only one of them really even projects as a #2 (Sanchez)”

Paulino was a #2 last year on 20 starts, had a much better year than Sanchez and a tick better than Oswalt in fewer starts and in the AL. If Hoch continues his progress we could easily have three #2s with Paulino extrapolated as a #1 at 30 starts. Chen will do his usual solid #4 and Duffy will be the wild card, depends on whether he internalized what he learned last year about nibbling on 0-2 counts and on whether he trusts his good stuff enough. Should make at least an average rotation.

“So if BOTH Monty and Duffy are outperforming those guys in ST or early in the season, we’re going to have to make some kind of move anyway.”

Sure, Sanchez will be traded at the break or somebody gets hurt or falls apart earlier, then Monty or Crow or whoever is dominating the PCL comes up. Short trip from Omaha. Nice to have some competition, will take some getting used to.

Package Hochevar, C-Rob, and maybe even Derrick Robinson (cause seriously – between Dyson, Maier, Lough, Myers, Eibner, etc. is D-Rob ever going to factor into the MLB outfield?) for whatever you can get – even if that’s a AA flyer at pitcher and a legit fielding utility infielder for 2013 (and by legit I mean someone who can actually play 2nd, 3rd, AND SS without embarassing themselves).

In reality – Hochevar’s stock may never be higher after his outstanding 2nd half last season, but does anyone think it’s sustainable? It’ll take some convincing.

Dayton says he doesn’t want to get Oswalt because he doesn’t want to block Monty or Duffy, but the real issue is he’s got Chen, Hoch, Sanchez, and Paulino – all pitchers with question marks and only one of them really even projects as a #2 (Sanchez) – who can’t be sent down. So if BOTH Monty and Duffy are outperforming those guys in ST or early in the season, we’re going to have to make some kind of move anyway.